Friday 24 February 2017

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 5:32 am

Stoke has to be the end for Ukips.

1. Post Brexit, the Tories have adopted their central policy ending their reason for existence

2. Nuttall is hopeless. A career full of pointless lies.

They couldn't squeeze the Tory vote in Stoke. If they had, they'd have won. Laour did very poorly in Stoke. That it has a vote share of 37% in Stoke Central, which should be low hanging fruit, is astonishing. Tory plus Ukips was 49%, with both parties increasing their vote share while Labour declined. From here on Ukips will decline even more, to the advantage of the Tories. If the Tories had been Labour's main challenger in Stoke, as in Copeland, the seat would have been lost. Which doesnt say anything we didn't know about the state of the Labour party.

A very good result for the Tories. The worst possible thing for them would have been a Ukips win.

Bu, Labour's best byelection result since the EU referendum Witney -2 %, Richmond -9, Sleaford -7, Stoke -2, Copeland -5

The other lesson is don't follow my political betting tips. I've lost money for 2 years now. TBF to me, the swing to the Tories in Copeland was bigger than the national polls were suggesting, and that despite the NHS "babies will die" issue. This is good on the significance https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copel ... hink.html/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Neither Nuttall nor Troughton made concession speeches. Not to thank the party workers for all their efforts is really bad (speaking as someone who has done that).

Greens did poorly in both, rather sadly.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 6:20 am

Morning.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ck-degrees" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Conservatives to unveil plans for two-year fast track degrees

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 6:33 am

http://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/pi ... -assessor/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PIP investigation: Capita made me a scapegoat, says disgraced assessor

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 7:08 am

Morning.

Just checking on the by election results and came upon this, the results of the Opinium poll I posted about last week, the one I was asked to take part in.

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It turns out that it was Polling Matters that commissioned it

NB. The would be more/less likely question responses are from 'all adults' not specifically voters.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 7:15 am

Well done the people of Stoke.

Well done all the hard working Labour workers, from both wings of the party, who went there and helped send Nuttall on his way.

How long before we hear if he'll be in trouble about his nomination address ?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 7:37 am

Frank's back.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 7:41 am

And there he is,unfortunately I haven't the foggiest what he is singing.I am bereft.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:06 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... rofit-bank" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RBS reports £7bn loss and says it will not make profit until 2018

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:07 am

Morning.

Seriously now, what even is this nonsense?

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I'm not sure embarrassment covers it any more.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:09 am

NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Seriously now, what even is this nonsense?

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I'm not sure embarrassment covers it any more.

The real fight for Copeland starts now.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:14 am

'phone update.

Total cost of calls: £0.00.

Consistent.Whatever happened to low user rebate?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:22 am

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... nipulation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trump accuses China of being 'grand champions' of currency manipulation

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:26 am

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... sive-greys" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Red squirrels: 5,000 volunteers sought to save species – and help kill invasive greys
Wildlife Trusts’ biggest-ever recruitment drive will see volunteers monitor populations, educate children – and bludgeon grey squirrels to death

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:29 am

Morning all.

Bad result in Copeland for Labour
Bad result in Stoke for UKIP. UKIP chairman trying vainly to absolve Nuttall from anything posted on his own website. Really? Didn't notice something like that for 4 years?

Where does Labour go from here? Not sure. Will anyone step up and challenge this year?

Also damaged yesterday - three fence panels blown down - fortunately not our side to repair.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:36 am

In other news...

Exclusive: Businesses snub government pleas to sponsor academies

https://www.tes.com/news/school-news/br ... -academies

Official figures also reveal that only three universities and private schools have applied to become sponsors since September 2013
Businesses have snubbed repeated government pleas to sponsor academies, figures obtained by TES reveal.

The figures also show that only two universities and one independent school – sectors the government is relying on to increase the number of good school places – have applied to become sponsors since September 2013.

Universities haven't got a great track record at running schools and the only way that private schools get involved is if they have falling rolls and convert to Free School status.

So we're left with a hopeless mess of thousands of different organisations running schools.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:38 am

Copeland's former MP being helpful

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I don't think there'll be a challenge this year. What would be the possible point?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:43 am

SpinningHugo wrote:Copeland's former MP being helpful

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I don't think there'll be a challenge this year. What would be the possible point?

Depends on whether some MPs think the mood among members has changed and that they are disillusioned enough to ditch the leader.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:54 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Copeland's former MP being helpful

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I don't think there'll be a challenge this year. What would be the possible point?
Depends on whether some MPs think the mood among members has changed and that they are disillusioned enough to ditch the leader.

I think that, nowadays, I continue to pay my Labour Party membership dues simply in order to morally justify moaning about how useless Jeremy Corbyn has proved himself to be.

That said - congratulations and thanks to those Labour toilers in the Stoke by-election.

Edited - typo

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 8:54 am

Good morfternoon.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 9:27 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Copeland's former MP being helpful

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't think there'll be a challenge this year. What would be the possible point?
Depends on whether some MPs think the mood among members has changed and that they are disillusioned enough to ditch the leader.

If it were just the 2015 members, Owen Smith would have won. A challenge is pointless as the membership has changed.

Unequivocally a good thing no doubt, as AK tells us.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 9:31 am

PorFavor wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Copeland's former MP being helpful

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't think there'll be a challenge this year. What would be the possible point?
Depends on whether some MPs think the mood among members has changed and that they are disillusioned enough to ditch the leader.

I think that, nowadays, I continue to pay my Labour Party membership dues simply in order to morally justify moaning about how useless Jeremy Corbyn has proved himself to be.

That said - congratulations and thanks to those Labour toilers in the Stoke by-election.

Edited - typo

I desperately want to start paying my dues again, but refuse to do so while the current leadership holds, there are so many WTF and FFS comments out there this morning, from Cat Smith's "hey we were only beaten by a party 18-20 points in front of us, could be worse hey" McDonnell blaming Mandelson and Blair for being interviewed by news outlets which have a minuscule audience at best, yes unhelpful but away from la-la-land otherwise known as social media who particularly cares?

Agree with those who say there was a rot of sorts prior to Corbyn, but that was containable to a certain degree, now it's terminal, I hope too not to read how a decent and honourable guy he is, if he's that honourable he would walk, others have when it obvious they are flogging a dead horse. Obvious too that there's only so much the party can play the NHS card, that needs to be played alongside an economic policy that's believable and deliverable, and yes, the Tories are tanking the country but for some unknown reason they look the bloody part, better end my rant and be thankful for at least what happened in Stoke, hopefully Nuttall will disappear back up the drainpipe he appeared from.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 9:51 am

.... To continue.

Corbyn also apportioned blame on the political class, the establishment, Jesus, doesn't he realise he's part of it, his political judgement and naivety at times are jaw dropping.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:00 am

letsskiptotheleft wrote:.... To continue.

Corbyn also apportioned blame on the political class, the establishment, Jesus, doesn't he realise he's part of it, his political judgement and naivety at times are jaw dropping.

Naivety? I think it's arrogance. For someone who says he didn't want the job, and then having empirical evidence presented to him to demonstrate that he's actually no good at it, he seems grimly determined to hang on to it.

Edited - typo

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:09 am

Good news for citizenJA

Bad news for the constituents of Copeland, who have lumbered themselves with a particularly useless-sounding Tory MP.

Gillian Troughton deserved to win more than Gareth Snell, IMO, but that's by the by. Maybe Copeland will realise their mistake in due course.

Who's to "blame" is not the point. The whining excuses from the Labour leadership just come across as pathetic. If they feel they have identified elements that went against Labour, they need to come up with concrete plans to tackle those elements. Show some leadership, show an ability to overcome the odds stacked against them, which undoubtedly they are. Weakly moaning makes them look helpless, victims tossed around in a storm of adversity. Why would anyone vote for party led by someone who so unashamedly admits to having no answers to the challenges they face?

As for Labour membership, I gave myself to the end of March to decide, but am no closer to making a decision. I fear that if Momentum members remain in majority, even a change of leadership won't improve things as the "old Labour"/"new Labour" feud will simply continue as the same old tired arguments are played out over and over again.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:12 am

SpinningHugo wrote:
NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Seriously now, what even is this nonsense?

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I'm not sure embarrassment covers it any more.

The real fight for Copeland starts now.

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Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:20 am

http://www.benefitsandwork.co.uk/news/3 ... tal-health" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Government rushes in heartless changes to PIP mobility for mental health

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:21 am

Richard Burgon:

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I think this belongs in letsskiptotheleft's

so many WTF and FFS comments out there this morning

nickyinnorfolk · Post by **nickyinnorfolk** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:24 am

Kevin Maguire in the Mirror:

Two words describe Labour's humiliating loss in Copeland: Jeremy and Corbyn

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/t ... ng-9908171" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Maguire mentions how even Corbyn devotees ('disciples' is the word he uses) were shocked at the anti Corbyn feeling on the doorstep.

The description of him as an albatross around Labour's neck is right.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:33 am

Tories had a 7% swing in Copeland, make no mistake that will be replicated in dozens of seats across the country, many good MPs will face defeat because of leadership ineptitude, and yet all I hear this morning in interviews whinges about a column in a little read publication.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:33 am

In other news, absolute scum remains absolute fucking scum:

It is because of these irrelevant people, who held no position, they happened to join an organisation, and because of these irrelevant people being demonised by liberal media, I’ve had to live years, frankly, of being frightened of walking out into the street all because the media picked out these people. And because of these people, attempted to demonise me and give me a bad name.
And you’re surprised three years on, when I have to live like a virtual prisoner, that I’m not happy about it? Will I ever forgive the British media for what they’ve done to me? No.

Don't need to say who this is, do I?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:36 am

NonOxCol wrote:In other news, absolute scum remains absolute fucking scum:

It is because of these irrelevant people, who held no position, they happened to join an organisation, and because of these irrelevant people being demonised by liberal media, I’ve had to live years, frankly, of being frightened of walking out into the street all because the media picked out these people. And because of these people, attempted to demonise me and give me a bad name.
And you’re surprised three years on, when I have to live like a virtual prisoner, that I’m not happy about it? Will I ever forgive the British media for what they’ve done to me? No.
Don't need to say who this is, do I?

Er - no.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:37 am

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Effing 'ell, even George Osborne feels sorry for us.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:39 am

letsskiptotheleft wrote:.... To continue.

Corbyn also apportioned blame on the political class, the establishment, Jesus, doesn't he realise he's part of it, his political judgement and naivety at times are jaw dropping.

Rather odd that this anti-establishment feeling seems to being manifested in people voting Tory.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:44 am

letsskiptotheleft wrote:

Effing 'ell, even George Osborne feels sorry for us.

Osborne isn't an idiot. it is bad for politics, even if you're a Tory, to have an opposition this hopeless. it is causing May to go further right as she doesn't need to guard her left flank. she can concentrate on destroying Ukips by stealing their clothes. Reminds me of Cameron telling him to go. It degrades politics and politicians generally to have Corbyn as "leader of the opposition."

it should be strongly stressed however that the central argument against electing Corbyn as leader of Labour was nothing to do with his being an electoral disaster.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 10:55 am

Part of the problem with Corbyn is that he is so appalling that things he is right about get lost in the noise.

So he talked today how austerity had been devolved to local councils. Absolutely. it is a disgrace.

But this case isn't being made properly, because of him.

Any other leader of a major party would resign at this point (think IDS). Corbyn won't and hasn't because his (and McDonnell's and Milne's) agenda is quite different from every other leader of a major party in the UK in our lives.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:03 am

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Had to happen didn't it?!

Greece done something to his head.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:04 am

letsskiptotheleft wrote:

Had to happen didn't it?!

Greece done something to his head.

here is his blog

https://medium.com/mosquito-ridge/labou ... .nogis5hl0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the left's own David Icke.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:07 am

David Winnick MP calling on Corbyn to quit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... b6f7c8ea2f" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the PLP must keep their discipline. Don't turn on him. Corbyn has to own this. Don't let them blame Blairites under the bed. Keep quiet.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:14 am

Q: [To ITV’s Chris Ship, on his last day in his job] Stoke was a Labour seat which you retained. Since you have found out that you have lost a seat to a governing party for the first time since the Falklands, have you at any point looked in the mirror this morning and thought you might be the problem?

No, says Corbyn. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:18 am

https://leftyoldman.wordpress.com/2017/ ... h-norfolk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

New way of doing politics!

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:25 am

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That all folks, before my 'ead goes!

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:30 am

Further (but not much further) to my above post -

Corbyn’s Q&A is over.

Here is the full text of Chris Ship’s question, and Jeremy Corbyn’s answer.

Ship: I want to ask you specifically about Copeland. Since you found out that you’d lost a seat to the governing party for the first time since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question: ‘Could the problem actually be me?’?

Corbyn: No.

Ship: Why not?

Corbyn: Thank you for your question.

Some in the audience applauded Corbyn’s answer. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Even if I were a supporter, I'd want more of an answer than that.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:42 am

PorFavor wrote:
Q: [To ITV’s Chris Ship, on his last day in his job] Stoke was a Labour seat which you retained. Since you have found out that you have lost a seat to a governing party for the first time since the Falklands, have you at any point looked in the mirror this morning and thought you might be the problem?

No, says Corbyn. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Apparently he also said "From which paper?"

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I am not a political anorak. I hardly watch the news, except C4. I know who Chris Ship is.

I understand that Alastair Campbell is about as popular as smallpox with many on the left, but his analysis of Labour failings in both 2010 and 2015 was accurate, and he would never have allowed this sort of amateurism.

Post by **adam** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:45 am

SpinningHugo wrote:Osborne isn't an idiot.

Careful now.

Osborne is the man who, when asked by the treasury select committee to name the academic ideas behind his policies and principles, cited 'growth in a time of debt'***, a paper which uses deliberately focused rounding and selection techniques to reach its conclusions and which, at the time of Osborne's comment, had been found to significantly overstate the impact of debt on growth. The man who told us that as a sovereign nation issuing its own currency there was a significant risk we would end up bankrupt. A man who told us that maintain the AAA rating was priority and a measure of his success until we lost it. A man who told us that the merchant banks' crash was 'all labour's fault'.

He might be an effective politician, but unless we choose to lionise political gain by any means we need to be careful to suggest that a blatantly deceitful politician is not an idiot.

*** edited to add - and nobody on the committee batted an eyelid.

Post by **adam** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 11:50 am

The other thing worth saying is that thanks to Corbyn's lead on Labour's attitude to Article 50, all of these results are enormous triumphs for the utter catastrophe of getting out of the EU.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 12:02 pm

NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Seriously now, what even is this nonsense?

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I'm not sure embarrassment covers it any more.

Somebody sleep deprived and probably quite upset says something silly shocker.

If you want embarrassment, dig up some of the "NUTTALL TO UTTERLY EVISCERATE LABOUR" pieces from "respected" political journalists late last year.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 12:12 pm

Ken Loach has his back. Fault of not just Blairites but people who backed Gordo too.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 12:13 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Seriously now, what even is this nonsense?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm not sure embarrassment covers it any more.
Somebody sleep deprived and probably quite upset says something silly shocker.

If you want embarrassment, dig up some of the "NUTTALL TO UTTERLY EVISCERATE LABOUR" pieces from "respected" political journalists late last year.

Were there?

Any examples of this?

Link?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 12:14 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Seriously now, what even is this nonsense?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm not sure embarrassment covers it any more.
Somebody sleep deprived and probably quite upset says something silly shocker.

If you want embarrassment, dig up some of the "NUTTALL TO UTTERLY EVISCERATE LABOUR" pieces from "respected" political journalists late last year.

The Kippers did indeed eviscerate Labour. Except they're calling themselves Tories.

Sorry about the result. Thought it would be OK.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 24 Feb, 2017 12:16 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:David Winnick MP calling on Corbyn to quit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... b6f7c8ea2f" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the PLP must keep their discipline. Don't turn on him. Corbyn has to own this. Don't let them blame Blairites under the bed. Keep quiet.

Winnick is a gobshite. Bit like John Mann but brighter.

Most will behave.