Wednesday 15th March 2017

[refitman]

Morning all.

[NonOxCol]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

[SpinningHugo]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

"We supported the Tories Hard Brexit in 2017, but it is your fault because you backed them in 2010."

I'm voting Green.

[StephenDolan]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

Catnip. Pure catnip

[Willow904]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

The Libdems made a lot of mistakes in government but laying the groundwork for Brexit is not one of them. If their consistent support for the EU project had been mirrored by the leaders of the Conservatives and Labour perhaps more voters would have been convinced by the EU's merits. Alas, Cameron thought convincing people to vote remain was best achieved by saying how terrible the EU was and how much it needed reform. Corbyn was by no means as strident and was far less influential, but it can't be denied that saying for years that we should leave and then during the referendum campaign telling everyone the EU is crap and needs reform but let's vote to stay in anyway was unlikely to be especially persuasive. But hey, let's blame the only party that has always had positive things to say about the EU for the fact that a small majority of voters decided it was rubbish and we should leave.

[StephenDolan]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

The Libdems made a lot of mistakes in government but laying the groundwork for Brexit is not one of them. If their consistent support for the EU project had been mirrored by the leaders of the Conservatives and Labour perhaps more voters would have been convinced by the EU's merits. Alas, Cameron thought convincing people to vote remain was best achieved by saying how terrible the EU was and how much it needed reform. Corbyn was by no means as strident and was far less influential, but it can't be denied that saying for years that we should leave and then during the referendum campaign telling everyone the EU is crap and needs reform but let's vote to stay in anyway was unlikely to be especially persuasive. But hey, let's blame the only party that has always had positive things to say about the EU for the fact that a small majority of voters decided it was rubbish and we should leave.

It's not unreasonable for Labour to tell Lib Dems to wind their necks in when it comes to the latter saying what the former should do.

Alan Johnson. Remember him? Me neither.

[StephenDolan]

South Thanet on the BBC news at 8am? Interesting. Speaking of which, given that Farage has been very reticent to go on the attack over this, limiting himself to saying he'd probably stand there again, and Arron Banks has cut ties with Ukip, can we expect the odd skeleton to appear?

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

I've just had a look at Politics Live (Guardian). It comes as no surprise to me that, so far, the answers to questions put to David Davis are mainly of the "I don't know" variety. Except for the "Oh, I hadn't thought of that" one.

[Willow904]

It seriously wound me up whenever Cameron dragged out the whole "I won't take lectures from the party who..." line. Labour shouldn't be stooping to his level. We are leaving the EU because a large section of the Tory party has long wanted to leave the EU and they managed to convince a small majority to vote for it. Labour blaming the Libdems is petty and inaccurate and a good example of how the right gets to do whatever it wants because the opposition are too busy blaming and trying to take votes off each other to ever put together a co-ordinated stand on the things they agree on.

[HindleA]

Morning



https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/m ... rmit-maine" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;





Into the woods: how one man survived alone in the wilderness for 27 years


" a fad for hermits swept 18th-century England. It was believed that hermits radiated kindness and thoughtfulness, so advertisements were placed in newspapers for “ornamental hermits” who were lax in grooming and willing to sleep in caves on the country estates of the aristocracy. The job paid well and hundreds were hired, typically on seven-year contracts. Some of the hermits would even emerge at dinner parties and greet guests"

[Tubby Isaacs]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

I'd have voted for them last time in a Lib-Con marginal. My hometown lost its Lib Dem and now has some ex Hammersmith and Fulham council chancer as its MP.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That tax rule that Trump had to pay most of his tax under sounds interesting. When stuff like this comes up, you realise how off the pace Labour are. Tax justice is supposed to be a core theme.

[gilsey]

I know many of you have given up on Newsnight, catch up on Nick Watt's election fraud piece with skwalker.
https://skwawkbox.org/2017/03/15/tory-n ... heres-why/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What I’m hearing from within the Cabinet is a confidence that there will not be successful criminal prosecutions. What I’m told is for that to happen, you’d have to prove intent, intent to deceive. And this source told me that… it’d be very difficult to say that an MP intended to deceive.

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/ma ... en-justice" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Government's £1bn plan for online courts 'challenges open justice'

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... al-housing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Trapped: the growing number of disabled people unable to leave their homes
Crisis in housing for those with disabilities leaves 1.8 million people stranded in unsuitable accommodation

[HindleA]

https://www.scope.org.uk/About-Us/Media ... IP-damning" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Watchdog letter to government on PIP "damning"

[Eric_WLothian]

Petition against indyref2 now at 109,000 signatures and still rising.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642

[AnatolyKasparov]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

The actions of the coalition did a great deal to enable the conditions for Brexit - this should not be disputed by any serious person.

[Willow904]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

The actions of the coalition did a great deal to enable the conditions for Brexit - this should not be disputed by any serious person.

Which actions are you thinking of?

Edited to add - I mean which actions taken by the Coalition were as influential as, say, the Euro crisis? Because the polls showed a very clear "leave" lead which coincided exactly with the Euro crisis period.

[StephenDolan]

From the G PLblog

'Sir Keir Starmer the shadow Brexit secretary, has put out this statement in response to David Davis’s admission that there has been no assessment of the economic impact of leaving the EU without a deal. Starmer said:

The government is recklessly talking up the idea of crashing out of the EU with no deal. They have repeated the mantra that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But we now know they have made no assessment of the economic impact of the prime minister failing to secure a deal.

What’s clear, from the CBI and others, is that there is no result that would be worse for the British economy than leaving with no deal; no deal would be the worst possible deal. The government should rule out this dangerous and counter-productive threat before article 50 is triggered.'

Let's hope that this is the plan.

[PorFavor]

Q: How will you keep parliament, and this committee, informed during the Brexit talks?

Davis says the Commons will be told at least as much as the European parliament.

To some extent this will depend on what information becomes available, he says. (Politics Live, Guardian)

What?

[PorFavor]

The Treasury drops NICs increase for self-employed in major U-turn (Politics Live, Guardian)

[Willow904]

That tax rule that Trump had to pay most of his tax under sounds interesting. When stuff like this comes up, you realise how off the pace Labour are. Tax justice is supposed to be a core theme.

The correspondent on the BBC was saying that the 'alternative minimum tax', which Trump is in favour of abolishing, was the main tax he paid in the leaked year. Abolishing it would have taken his tax paid from $38m to around $5m.

Quite revealing. If the leak was trying to make him look good, it may have backfired, as it reveals his intentions quite neatly.

[Willow904]

The Treasury drops NICs increase for self-employed in major U-turn (Politics Live, Guardian)

Cue smug, satisfied, self-employed political journalists.

This is not a win for the left.

Edited to add - because the universal credit cuts previously announced by Osborne that will hammer the low paid self-employed still stand. This was always the danger of confusing the progressive tax rise of Hammond's with previous measures.

[HindleA]

UQ on PIP at 12.30 by D.Abrahams


Due to come in force in two days.

[SpinningHugo]

From the G PLblog

'Sir Keir Starmer the shadow Brexit secretary, has put out this statement in response to David Davis’s admission that there has been no assessment of the economic impact of leaving the EU without a deal. Starmer said:

The government is recklessly talking up the idea of crashing out of the EU with no deal. They have repeated the mantra that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But we now know they have made no assessment of the economic impact of the prime minister failing to secure a deal.

What’s clear, from the CBI and others, is that there is no result that would be worse for the British economy than leaving with no deal; no deal would be the worst possible deal. The government should rule out this dangerous and counter-productive threat before article 50 is triggered.'

Let's hope that this is the plan.

Lucky then that the opposition sought such stringent conditions on the Tory government going for Hard Brexit.

Oh.

The fight starts now, no doubt.

What a grave disappointment Starmer has been. Pitiful.

[Willow904]

UQ on PIP at 12.30 by D.Abrahams


Due to come in force in two days.

Debbie Abrahams has been good at shadow DWP. She's got a lot info out into the media on this and other welfare issues, despite the general lack of interest from the MSM.

[PorFavor]

The Treasury drops NICs increase for self-employed in major U-turn (Politics Live, Guardian)

Cue smug, satisfied, self-employed political journalists.

This is not a win for the left.

Edited to add - because the universal credit cuts previously announced by Osborne that will hammer the low paid self-employed still stand. This was always the danger of confusing the progressive tax rise of Hammond's with previous measures.

Philip Hammond's letter to the Treasury Committee (the letter is shown over at Politics Live, Guardian) might best be summed up as "Which pillock wrote the 2015 manifesto?"

[StephenDolan]

Cue smug, satisfied, self-employed political journalists.

This is not a win for the left.

Edited to add - because the universal credit cuts previously announced by Osborne that will hammer the low paid self-employed still stand. This was always the danger of confusing the progressive tax rise of Hammond's with previous measures.

Philip Hammond's letter to the Treasury Committee (the letter is shown over at Politics Live, Guardian) might best be summed up as "Which pillock wrote the 2015 manifesto?"

So he'll be filling the new hole in his plans with?

[HindleA]

"shudders"

[Willow904]

From the G PLblog

'Sir Keir Starmer the shadow Brexit secretary, has put out this statement in response to David Davis’s admission that there has been no assessment of the economic impact of leaving the EU without a deal. Starmer said:

The government is recklessly talking up the idea of crashing out of the EU with no deal. They have repeated the mantra that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But we now know they have made no assessment of the economic impact of the prime minister failing to secure a deal.

What’s clear, from the CBI and others, is that there is no result that would be worse for the British economy than leaving with no deal; no deal would be the worst possible deal. The government should rule out this dangerous and counter-productive threat before article 50 is triggered.'

Let's hope that this is the plan.

Lucky then that the opposition sought such stringent conditions on the Tory government going for Hard Brexit.

Oh.

The fight starts now, no doubt.

What a grave disappointment Starmer has been. Pitiful.

He's far to superior to Corbyn at making the government look like idiots, which sometimes is all you can do from opposition. He can only be a disappointment if you had unrealistic expectations of him. He is a clever and committed public servant who is in the process of learning the art of politics. He has plenty of potential.

[SpinningHugo]

From the G PLblog

'Sir Keir Starmer the shadow Brexit secretary, has put out this statement in response to David Davis’s admission that there has been no assessment of the economic impact of leaving the EU without a deal. Starmer said:

The government is recklessly talking up the idea of crashing out of the EU with no deal. They have repeated the mantra that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But we now know they have made no assessment of the economic impact of the prime minister failing to secure a deal.

What’s clear, from the CBI and others, is that there is no result that would be worse for the British economy than leaving with no deal; no deal would be the worst possible deal. The government should rule out this dangerous and counter-productive threat before article 50 is triggered.'

Let's hope that this is the plan.

Lucky then that the opposition sought such stringent conditions on the Tory government going for Hard Brexit.

Oh.

The fight starts now, no doubt.

What a grave disappointment Starmer has been. Pitiful.

He's far to superior to Corbyn at making the government look like idiots, which sometimes is all you can do from opposition. He can only be a disappointment if you had unrealistic expectations of him. He is a clever and committed public servant who is in the process of learning the art of politics. He has plenty of potential.

I think he is hopelessly overrated.

The government's position on Brexit is embarrassingly thin. It is a Big Fat Open Goal. Starmer hardly takes a meaningful shot.

I'd accept he is hamstrung by party policy to back unconditionally invoking Art 50 (ie the Labour party backs the Tory policy).

[NonOxCol]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

The actions of the coalition did a great deal to enable the conditions for Brexit - this should not be disputed by any serious person.

And the actions of the Labour party/leadership since June 2016 have been unutterably depressing for long-time supporters, and it's hardly surprising that some left of centre people see that as more directly relevant now.

[SpinningHugo]

Mind you, Corbyn at PMQs is doing his best to make all other politicians look brilliant.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Morning.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1) I still wouldn't vote Lib Dem in an armlock.
But
2) I suspect SpinningHugo will have a few things to say about this, and I suspect I'll be thanking his comments. Sorry.

The actions of the coalition did a great deal to enable the conditions for Brexit - this should not be disputed by any serious person.

And the actions of the Labour party/leadership since June 2016 have been unutterably depressing for long-time supporters, and it's hardly surprising that some left of centre people see that as more directly relevant now.

That is because Brexit is a very depressing thing.

But there is no magical, painless way out of it which the wicked Corbyn is for some unfathomable reason failing to espouse.

This is the fantasy promoted by the likes of Dunt.

It is totally false.

[SpinningHugo]

In ordinary times, ie under a competent if unexceptional leader like Miliband, what would have happened today?

First the government wouldn't have dared announce the budget u-turn before PMQs. If they had have done, they'd know that the Leader of the Opposition and the shadow Chancellor would have been all over it, and footage of the PM being humiliated would have led the news.

Second the government would have eventually tried to sneek out the announcement, and at the next PMQs the leader of the opposition would have asked six short punchy questions, leaving his backbenchers cheering.

Nowadays the Tories don't care. May's opposition comes from *her right* not the opposition. So she has gone for the hardest of Hard Brexits because she knows the opposition won't oppose it. She reverses a progressive and sensible NI change because people like IDS oppose all tax rises.

this is what the opposition looks like when the government is in incompetent disarray.

The UK is doomed.

Corybn is allocated 6 questions. He only managed 3.

[AnatolyKasparov]

In ordinary times, ie under a competent if unexceptional leader like Miliband

This is significant revisionism from you, fair play.

[SpinningHugo]

In ordinary times, ie under a competent if unexceptional leader like Miliband

This is significant revisionism from you, fair play.

I thought he was the wrong man as I thought Labour would lose under him.

But in retrospect, he is a towering figure of brilliance.

[NonOxCol]

The actions of the coalition did a great deal to enable the conditions for Brexit - this should not be disputed by any serious person.

And the actions of the Labour party/leadership since June 2016 have been unutterably depressing for long-time supporters, and it's hardly surprising that some left of centre people see that as more directly relevant now.

That is because Brexit is a very depressing thing.

But there is no magical, painless way out of it which the wicked Corbyn is for some unfathomable reason failing to espouse.

This is the fantasy promoted by the likes of Dunt.

It is totally false.

It's a fantasy to distinguish between types of Brexit, and to be capable of offering full-throated, consistent opposition to something as mind-bogglingly disastrous as this particular type?

We're happy to whip in favour of something as embarrassing and ill-conceived as this (tweet stream below) now, are we?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Willow904]

Keir Starmer would have remembered to ask his 6 questions, punchy or otherwise. You can at least build on a solid base. Corbyn is getting worse. He is out of his depth on the EU and the reality is that the EU is the main topic this parliament, like it or not.

If Corbyn could stick to education or health, it wouldn't be so bad, but he's either extremely wobbly or out of step with public opinion on just about everything else.

The NICs u-turn is a poor outcome. It's what the likes of Rees-Mogg and IDS wanted and Corbyn should have been in the position to attack Theresa May for being pushed around by her backbenchers, but instead he aligned Labour on their side and as such is stuck with welcoming the ditching of a progressive tax on higher earners, while the genuine left wing point about the universal credit cuts gets lost.

I don't know how you get rid of Corbyn while keeping the left policies members want, but ignoring the damage he is currently doing to the party's credibility is not the answer.

[SpinningHugo]

Yvette Cooper now showing how it ought to be done.

I mean, really, this is not healthy for UK politics. Even the Tories must see how bad this is for the UK. Unless you have an opposition the government will not maintain any kind of standards.

[AnatolyKasparov]

And the actions of the Labour party/leadership since June 2016 have been unutterably depressing for long-time supporters, and it's hardly surprising that some left of centre people see that as more directly relevant now.

That is because Brexit is a very depressing thing.

But there is no magical, painless way out of it which the wicked Corbyn is for some unfathomable reason failing to espouse.

This is the fantasy promoted by the likes of Dunt.

It is totally false.

It's a fantasy to distinguish between types of Brexit, and to be capable of offering full-throated, consistent opposition to something as mind-bogglingly disastrous as this particular type?

We're happy to whip in favour of something as embarrassing and ill-conceived as this (tweet stream below) now, are we?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour have repeatedly put forward amendments to make Brexit less bad. They have all, without exception, been voted down by the Tory majority in the HoC.

[SpinningHugo]

That is because Brexit is a very depressing thing.

But there is no magical, painless way out of it which the wicked Corbyn is for some unfathomable reason failing to espouse.

This is the fantasy promoted by the likes of Dunt.

It is totally false.

It's a fantasy to distinguish between types of Brexit, and to be capable of offering full-throated, consistent opposition to something as mind-bogglingly disastrous as this particular type?

We're happy to whip in favour of something as embarrassing and ill-conceived as this (tweet stream below) now, are we?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour have repeatedly put forward amendments to make Brexit less bad. They have all, without exception, been voted down by the Tory majority in the HoC.

And then they whipped, and voted, for Art 50 without any conditions attached at all.

Blind loyalty is not a virtue in my opinion.

[citizenJA]

Good-afternoon

[HindleA]

FFS Green arguing that people awarded under pre-regulations will not have to pay back monies after regulations and therefore not loss as he has always said,how do they get away with this nonsense.

[citizenJA]

Tumultuous, frustrating times. The thread is exceptionally good today, a riveting read, thank you. Those posting sincerely, candidly with intelligence and feeling are an asset to this community and the world. I'm under great strain and apologise for my awkwardly written contributions. My appreciation is genuine.

[PorFavor]

Norman Smith (TV BBC News) is pointing the finger at Theresa May (NICs u-turn).


Edited to add -

By which I mean that he's saying (I paraphrase) that the original budget must have been approved by her since she's such a control-freak.

[SpinningHugo]

Good article on Owen Jones and the unfortunate tendency on the left to refuse to accept disagreement, and instead question the honesty and motivation of others

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... fowenjones" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Willow904]

From the G live blog:

Torsten Bell, director of the Resolution Foundation, the living standards thinktank, has expressed disappointment about the U-turn.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of Conservative manifesto commitments, today’s U-turn on national insurance means the government has missed an opportunity to correct a big structural flaw in our tax system which allows better-off self-employed workers to pay far less tax than employees.

This matters both for fairness and for the public finances. The U-turn means the cost of lower national insurance for the self-employed will now grow from £5.1bn this year to an estimated £6.2bn in 2019-20.

Reminds me of Osborne's omnishambles budget of 2012. In amongst the usual Tory regressive stuff was a cut to tax relief on charitable donations. I found myself going against public opinion at the time in thinking the policy relatively sound. Naturally that meant the rabid right wing press hated it and it was promptly jettisoned. This U-turn is quite a frightening indication of how much May and Hammond are hostage to the tabloid press and a handful of far right backbenchers.

[citizenJA]

The left won't put a bullet in your head in response to dissent.