Thursday 16th March 2017

[PorFavor]

Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon)

One last point - if PM thinks we won't know terms of Brexit by autumn next year, she must think her own timetable will fail.
March 16, 2017

(Politics Live, Guardian)

[AnatolyKasparov]

Sometimes the Graun "long reads" aren't really worth your time reading, but today's - about what will happen when Brenda finally goes to the royal palace in the sky, its possible fallout and what it says about us as a country - is certainly an exception. And well worth a look it you haven't seen it already.

[adam]

...does May want to be the PM who saw its demise any more than Cameron did?

I don't think she cares.

[ScarletGas]

The gospel according to Saint Theresa.

"And, more than that, I think it would not be fair to the people of Scotland because they’d be being asked to take a crucial decision without the necessary information, without knowing what the future partnership will be or what the alternative of an independent Scotland would look like"

Does this remind you of anything? Say something that happened around June last year.

We ,of course had all the necessary information then didn't we!

[PorFavor]

The gospel according to Saint Theresa.

"And, more than that, I think it would not be fair to the people of Scotland because they’d be being asked to take a crucial decision without the necessary information, without knowing what the future partnership will be or what the alternative of an independent Scotland would look like"

Does this remind you of anything? Say something that happened around June last year.

We ,of course had all the necessary information then didn't we!

Seems vaguely familiar. Oh, go on. Put me out of my misery . . .

[Tubby Isaacs]

May has a point. If the issue of leaving the UK is that it's screwed up its relationship with its main market, then there's a case that you need to see the final relationship it will have with its main market.

When Cameron held the EU referendum our relationship with the EU wasn't up in the air.

Think Sturgeon is over reaching here. What if May were to announce a Customs Union position was her policy just before the referendum? Ruth Davidson would hammer her. "Not even leaving our main market! See! SNP only care about one thing"

[tinybgoat]

May has a point. If the issue of leaving the UK is that it's screwed up its relationship with its main market, then there's a case that you need to see the final relationship it will have with its main market.

When Cameron held the EU referendum our relationship with the EU wasn't up in the air.

Think Sturgeon is over reaching here. What if May were to announce a Customs Union position was her policy just before the referendum? Ruth Davidson would hammer her. "Not even leaving our main market! See! SNP only care about one thing"

Wouldn't she (Sturgeon) just claim that May was responding to pressure of the referendum, and that it was a canny move to exert leverage?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

[Eric_WLothian]

Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

[HindleA]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -functions" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Correspondence
Tower Hamlets intervention: return of functions

[Tubby Isaacs]

Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

I think there's some mileage for Sturgeon in "the facts have changed". An SNP-Labour coalition wasn't impossible then. Nobody expects Labour to be near UK government soon. Plus Brexit of course.

Did you see Richard Murphy? Unpleasant, unevidenced post that the GERs are a load of rubbish based on devious/incompetent union statisticians in London. Unpleasant Nats lapping it up. And Murphy lapping them up.

I've complained to UK Stats about it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Mhairi Hunter‏
@MhairiHunter

Tories! We're starting #Scotref campaigning in May. If you want it to go on for 4 years instead of 18 months that's up to you.

I think they'll skip the first 3 years, and attack you for not sorting the schools etc.

[Eric_WLothian]

Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

I think there's some mileage for Sturgeon in "the facts have changed". An SNP-Labour coalition wasn't impossible then. Nobody expects Labour to be near UK government soon. Plus Brexit of course.

Did you see Richard Murphy? Unpleasant, unevidenced post that the GERs are a load of rubbish based on devious/incompetent union statisticians in London. Unpleasant Nats lapping it up. And Murphy lapping them up.

I've complained to UK Stats about it.

Can't see an SNP-Lab coalition working, personally. The SNP aren't known as the Tartan Tories for nothing!
Scotland will be out of the EU, either as an independent country or as part of the UK, so, unlike Sturgeon, I don't see that the facts have really changed - at least as far as Brexit is concerned. This leaves a choice of either sharing any UK-negotiated trade deals as part of the UK or trying to go it alone. I know which I prefer.

You may be interested in the analysis of Murphy's arguments here:

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/

[tinyclanger2]

The gospel according to Saint Theresa.

"And, more than that, I think it would not be fair to the people of Scotland because they’d be being asked to take a crucial decision without the necessary information, without knowing what the future partnership will be or what the alternative of an independent Scotland would look like"

Does this remind you of anything? Say something that happened around June last year.

We ,of course had all the necessary information then didn't we!

This makes me so angry i can't even be bothered being angry any more.

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Martin Rowson on a deflating week for Trump and the European right

[Tubby Isaacs]

If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

I think there's some mileage for Sturgeon in "the facts have changed". An SNP-Labour coalition wasn't impossible then. Nobody expects Labour to be near UK government soon. Plus Brexit of course.

Did you see Richard Murphy? Unpleasant, unevidenced post that the GERs are a load of rubbish based on devious/incompetent union statisticians in London. Unpleasant Nats lapping it up. And Murphy lapping them up.

I've complained to UK Stats about it.

Can't see an SNP-Lab coalition working, personally. The SNP aren't known as the Tartan Tories for nothing!
Scotland will be out of the EU, either as an independent country or as part of the UK, so, unlike Sturgeon, I don't see that the facts have really changed - at least as far as Brexit is concerned. This leaves a choice of either sharing any UK-negotiated trade deals as part of the UK or trying to go it alone. I know which I prefer.

You may be interested in the analysis of Murphy's arguments here:

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/

Yeah, I saw Kev have a go back. Good man.

A Westminster Coalition with the SNP-Lab in it could have been on the cards in 2014, I think.

UK negotiated deals are going to be worse than EU negotiated ones for Scotland, I think. But there are still problems to overcome, and they're much the same as before.

Did you see this?

Mhairi Hunter‏
@MhairiHunter

Tories! We're starting #Scotref campaigning in May. If you want it to go on for 4 years instead of 18 months that's up to you.

I reckon the Tories would be delighted to have 3 years of letting the SNP bang on about independence.

[Eric_WLothian]

Mhairi Hunter‏
@MhairiHunter

Tories! We're starting #Scotref campaigning in May. If you want it to go on for 4 years instead of 18 months that's up to you.

I think they'll skip the first 3 years, and attack you for not sorting the schools etc.

I would have thought Ms Hunter's immediate priority might be the upcoming LG elections.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

[Eric_WLothian]

I reckon the Tories would be delighted to have 3 years of letting the SNP bang on about independence.

Nobody will notice - it's what the SNP do all the time.

[Eric_WLothian]

Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Shelter Scotland told the UK and Scottish Governments off today.

Don't they understand that when your priority is council tax freezing and universal freebies, you can't afford to do more for housing?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

That's exactly what they're trying. But controlling the timing as the UK government do, is an advantage. They can pop up with as soft a Brexit they can get away with in their party, and catch the SNP out. I don't yet buy that it's a gift to Sturgeon that the Scottish Parliament could be blocked from holding a referendum exactly when it wants.

[tinyclanger2]

Something to miss:

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radi ... h-bake-off" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Noel Fielding and Sandi Toksvig to host new Great British Bake Off
New presenters will join new judge Prue Leith and Bake Off stalwart Paul Hollywood in the Channel 4 version of the show

[tinyclanger2]

The Netherlands' GreenLeft "Jessiah"

Something of a throwback to classic 1970s Dutch ideals of openness and radicalism, Klaver has a Moroccan father and a mother of Indonesian descent. The far-right populism of Geert Wilders, rather than Muslim immigration, is the real threat to Dutch culture and traditions, he has repeatedly said.

Properly leftwing parties in Europe had to fight the rise of the far right by standing up for their ideals, he said on Wednesday.

“What I would say to all my leftwing friends in Europe: don’t try to fake the populace,” he said. “Stand for your principles. Be straight. Be pro-refugee. Be pro-European. We’re gaining momentum in the polls. You can stop populism.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ition-deal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Eric_WLothian]

Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

That's exactly what they're trying. But controlling the timing as the UK government do, is an advantage. They can pop up with as soft a Brexit they can get away with in their party, and catch the SNP out. I don't yet buy that it's a gift to Sturgeon that the Scottish Parliament could be blocked from holding a referendum exactly when it wants.

Don't forget the SNP conference this weekend. A "nasty English Tories blocking the will of the Scottish people" gripe for the acolytes.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He's overdoing it a bit for a guy who came 6th, but I do applaud the sentiments.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

That's exactly what they're trying. But controlling the timing as the UK government do, is an advantage. They can pop up with as soft a Brexit they can get away with in their party, and catch the SNP out. I don't yet buy that it's a gift to Sturgeon that the Scottish Parliament could be blocked from holding a referendum exactly when it wants.

Don't forget the SNP conference this weekend. A "nasty English Tories blocking the will of the Scottish people" gripe for the acolytes.

Surely she wouldn't do a May and talk herself into trouble high on conference buzz.

[adam]

There is much too much assumption here that electorates are reasonable and rational people who will make sensible decisions.

[Eric_WLothian]

Surely she wouldn't do a May and talk herself into trouble high on conference buzz.

Too late - she (Sturgeon) wrote herself into trouble when she put another referendum in the SNP manifesto.

Edited to add:
The situation could be saved quite easily by the Greens voting against the minority SNP government in Holyrood. But I doubt whether they will.

[Eric_WLothian]

There is much too much assumption here that electorates are reasonable and rational people who will make sensible decisions.

There is much too much assumption that governments are reasonable and rational people who will make sensible decisions

[Tubby Isaacs]

By the 90s, New Labour – flush with money under Tony Blair – were the big transgressors. Indeed, I remember doorstepping Blair over the amount of money spent in the Wirral South byelection. I later learned it was around £500,000, about 50 times the legal limit.

So says Michael Crick. Really?

[RogerOThornhill]

Dana Schwartz‏Verified account @DanaSchwartzzz 21h21 hours ago
More
Trump supporters probably so conflicted because you can't blame the Hawaii judge on Obama being born there when Obama was born in Kenya

[HindleA]

FWIW

UC Household Types as of December 2016

Single 354,128 :
Single,child 38,875
Couple 4,719
Couple ,child 12,746


Housing Element No 243,372
Yes 167,101

[HindleA]

http://www.mealsonwheelsamerica.org/nat ... -blueprint" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


MEALS ON WHEELS AMERICA STATEMENT ON BUDGET BLUEPRINT