Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th March 2017

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 9:23 pm

Four local council byelections this week:

Breckland DC - Tory hold in a safe two member ward created at the 2015 elections when they took almost exactly half the vote; they dipped slightly below that now but still easily won against a highly fragmented opposition. LibDems took second with 15% having not stood last time, just ahead of an Independent. Two years ago UKIP took second here with around 30% of the vote (and had actually managed to win one of the Norfolk CC divisions covering this area in 2013, though they lost it to the Tories in a byelection a few years later) but now plummeted by almost two thirds into 4th place - another ominous portent ahead of this May's contests. Indeed they only finished narrowly ahead of Labour (another GE day absentee) as they brought up the rear with 10%.

South Ribble DC - Tory hold, though the fact the previous incumbent had been sitting as an Independent latterly (as part of a split from the ruling Tory group) meant they actually regain a single seat majority on the council with this win. This was another council whose boundaries were redrawn for the 2015 elections, and on GE day the Tories won both councillors in this ward beating Labour in a straight fight by about 55-45. This time round a LibDem entered the fray scoring some 15% - and as has often been the case with such interventions recently they appeared to hit Labour harder than the Tories, meaning the latter were able to win fairly comfortably with just under half the vote.

Blackpool - Tory hold with over half the vote, a double figure advance on 2015 and a swing from Labour of over 5% in a ward which has always returned two Tories since 2003 (though only in 2007 was it by a really commanding margin) The fact Labour's share also increased significantly, however, points to the real cause of this Tory advance - as in several other places an almost total collapse of UKIP, down from approaching 20% on GE day to less than 6% now (that was also UKIP's first showing here, which helps to explain how the pro-Tory swing since 2011 was rather more modest) LibDems last on 4%, also a decrease.

Newcastle upon Tyne - Labour hold though their share was down to the mid-40s compared with the high 50s last year. This was a ward which split 2LibDem/1Lab in the all out elections in 2004 which saw the yellow team sweep to power in this long term Labour fortress. The fightback was quicker here than elsewhere, though - Labour held their final seat in 2006 and then took both the LibDems out in a 2007 "double" election. This ward remained competitive until 2010, but after that as in many other cases LibDem support fell off a cliff and last May they finished 5th and last. Into the vacuum moved the Greens who took 2nd in 2012, consolidated that in a previous 2013 by-election and last year were runners up with over a quarter of the vote. They only increased slightly this time despite Labour's drop, instead there was something of a recovery from the dead by the LibDems who came a decent third with 16%, a double figure increase on last time. UKIP 4th with 5% (half their peak level here back in 2014) just ahead of the Tories who were little changed.

Three contests next week.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 9:29 pm

Thankyou.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 9:41 pm

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/na ... s-10053340" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Landmark nurses survey gives damning verdict on understaffed, underpaid, overworked NHS

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 9:57 pm

Evening all.

First chance to check in here over the weekend.

Good to see you around AK. Others. Not so much.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:15 pm

[youtube]6ROwVrF0Ceg[/youtube]

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:24 pm

[youtube]EqS76TFCCYs[/youtube]

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:25 pm

That clip makes me think of back to the future...

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:31 pm

StephenDolan wrote:Evening all.

First chance to check in here over the weekend.

Good to see you around AK. Others. Not so much.

CitizenJA dragging down the tone again?

Post by **adam** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:35 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:And "coup" is "I Love 1973" stuff, like the PLP are Pinochet or something.

Having just read the rest of page 2, I'd like to award Tubby today's 'Ineffectual Post of the Day" certificate.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:43 pm

Many thanks, everyone.
I love you.
Goodnight.
cJA

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 10:49 pm

Jon Lansman has made a fool of himself, though only slightly less than Gerald Coyne. McCluskey isn't a Corbyn fan any longer. He's not going to run for election and then suddenly start funding Momentum.

I thought the bit about excluding the Socialist Party because McDonnell told him to was interesting. He might be making that up, but if not, they aren't very "grassroots" are they?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 18 Mar, 2017 11:25 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... heresa-may" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Cross-party alliance takes on Theresa May over grammar schools

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ar-schools" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:25 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39316963" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NHS facing 'mission impossible next year'

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:26 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39318829" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Second-job rules for MPs to be examined

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 8:29 am

You'll catch more with honey than vinegar

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The trouble with that is that it won't persuade those it needs to persuade.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 8:32 am

A few polls of which the Scottish one is the most startling

Panelbase/S Times (Scotland Westminster):

SNP 47 (=)
CON 28 (+1)
LAB 14 (-1)
LD 4 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)

N=1,008

CON 41 (+1)
LAB 28 (+1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 13 (-1)
GRN 3 (-1)
SNP 6 (+1)

14th-17th March
N=2,007

ComRes/Indy/S Mirror:

CON 42 (+1)
LAB 25 (-1)
LD 12 (+1)
UKIP 10 (-1)
GRN 4 (=)
SNP 5 (=)

15th-17th Mar
N=2,026

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:00 am

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 93486.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

sir-john-major-slams-undemocratic-conservative-ultrabrexiteers-for-forcing-complete-break-with-euope (sic.)

Why not talk about this instead?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:01 am

Or this

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/1516 ... says_poll/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Support_for_Scottish_independence_LOWER_than_2014__says_poll

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:02 am

Or even this

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/j ... e-10055308" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

jeremy-corbyn-mps-must-recapture

from Prescott?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:04 am

Sorry if any have already been linked earlier.

All best from a wild morning in the Pennines

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:20 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Or even this

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/j ... e-10055308" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

jeremy-corbyn-mps-must-recapture

from Prescott?

So May's elections are the 20th anniversary of New Labour's triumph.

An interesting juxtaposition, but Labour is doing better in local polls, so the difference may be less marked.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:36 am

Depends what you mean by "startling" - the Scottish polls have been much the same for months now.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 10:44 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Depends what you mean by "startling" - the Scottish polls have been much the same for months now.

True enough, but quite different from just a year ago, when such figures would not have been imaginable. I don't follow Scotland all that closely.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 11:04 am

Following the major Labour collapse in 2014-15, some of their remaining Scottish support mainly motivated by "unionism" has drifted off to the Tories.

Corbyn is no more popular north of the border than elsewhere, but it also doesn't help that the present SLab leader is so anonymous and has little distinctive to say.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 11:35 am

HindleA wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39316963

NHS facing 'mission impossible next year'

Bad news for all of us.
'Maybe the roads will be open, maybe not'
'Maybe you'll get power restored to your home, maybe not'
'Maybe someone will answer your 999 call, maybe not'
'We may be getting a shipment of food in today, maybe you'll have to eat tinned pet food again instead'

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 11:36 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Sorry if any have already been linked earlier.

All best from a wild morning in the Pennines

HOWDY!
It's good to see you, Paul!

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 11:49 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Following the major Labour collapse in 2014-15, some of their remaining Scottish support mainly motivated by "unionism" has drifted off to the Tories.

Corbyn is no more popular north of the border than elsewhere, but it also doesn't help that the present SLab leader is so anonymous and has little distinctive to say.

Perhaps due to personal circumstances just now?
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/n ... -1-4338164

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 11:51 am

My commiserations, though it applies to her entire stint as leader really.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:02 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:My commiserations, though it applies to her entire stint as leader really.

True. Ruth Davidson is way ahead in the 'getting noticed' stakes.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:07 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote: ...a wild morning in the Pennines

Has the party been going on all night or is this a new one?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:08 pm

Eric_WLothian wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:My commiserations, though it applies to her entire stint as leader really.
True. Ruth Davidson is way ahead in the 'getting noticed' stakes.

The penalty, perhaps, for coming third behind the Tories, who get more exposure as the official opposition?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:10 pm

Its the other way round if anything - the Tories moved into second because of Davidson.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:11 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:My commiserations, though it applies to her entire stint as leader really.

The Tory always gets better press coverage

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:21 pm

Willow904 wrote:
Eric_WLothian wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:My commiserations, though it applies to her entire stint as leader really.
True. Ruth Davidson is way ahead in the 'getting noticed' stakes.
The penalty, perhaps, for coming third behind the Tories, who get more exposure as the official opposition?

She (Davidson) was a BBC journalist which may have given her an advantage.
I may be wrong, but I think Kezia Dugdale has always worked in politics.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:39 pm

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1585848 ... s-is-a-new" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour Press
This unprecedented warning from trusts is a new low for this Government’s mishandling of our NHS - Jonathan Ashworth MP

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 12:44 pm

owing to shoulder injury have had to switch normal sporting activity to running.
Mr H, any tips for a beginner? (lower back and breathing seem to the be the main weak points. particularly the breathing bit)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 1:07 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:owing to shoulder injury have had to switch normal sporting activity to running.
Mr H, any tips for a beginner? (lower back and breathing seem to the be the main weak points. particularly the breathing bit)

I'd give it a swerve until you've mastered the breathing bit. Speaking as a non-expert on the subject . . .

Edited to add -

A non-expert on sport, that is. I think I've got the breathing bit off fairly well.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 1:08 pm

Good morfternoon.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 1:22 pm

Dugdale went into the Scottish Election raising tax for services. It wasn't very popular, but it's nearer to proper work than anybody in UK Labour has come.

I see Sturgeon's now willing to delay her referendum but not till after Brexit.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 1:38 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote: I see Sturgeon's now willing to delay her referendum but not till after Brexit.

Conference is over but she'll need another grievance to keep the faithful straining at the leash in a few months.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 2:25 pm

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... ibson.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A response to Gudgin, Coutts & Gibson

Mainlymacro

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 2:55 pm

Tinyclanger2

Seek medical advice
Only run in the middle of roads in organised events excepting Paris,particular around the Arc de Triomphe where you just shut your eyes and pray.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 4:22 pm

OpenSeas wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:A few polls of which the Scottish one is the most startling

Panelbase/S Times (Scotland Westminster):

SNP 47 (=)
CON 28 (+1)
LAB 14 (-1)
LD 4 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)

N=1,008

Might be worth us finally having a look at what the political map would look like, should the 'Ruth Davidson revolution' retain its current firepower.

Look away now if you're squeamish.

SNP 37 seats (-19)
Conservative 22 seats (+21)
Labour 0 seats (-1)
Liberal Democrat 0 seats (-1)

Current boundaries

No way would those figures produce anything like that outcome. More likely that Labour will have at least a dead cat bounce once Jez and Kez are gone (both likely by 2020)

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:38 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/ ... k-to-music
Chuck Berry obituary: 'A lively, perfect fit of street-talk to music'

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:41 pm

Am with the Big G I think.
Federal (republic) of Britain/UK

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:42 pm

The daily Donaeld

Donaeld The Unready‏ @donaeldunready 4h4 hours ago

My great Chronicles include EXCLUSIVE sagas on Bretwalda campaign, struggle against Crooked Aethelflaed AND foreword from Piers ap Moron!

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:44 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 38051.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Lib Dems back plan to allow Brits 'devastated by referendum' to opt in to EU citizenship
Associate citizenship would allow Brits to work and live in EU member states after Brexit

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 5:46 pm

The Liberal Democrats have backed a motion calling on the Government to allow British nationals the right to apply for so-called associate citizenship over the European Union after Brexit.

The radical plan would allow UK nationals who applied for EU citizenship to work anywhere inside the union as well as giving them a vote in the European Parliament elections – while retaining their passport.

In late 2016, The Independent revealed that a plan for “associate citizenship”, proposed by MEP Charles Goerens, was being considered at the European Parliament. It then received the backing of Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, who said he would ensure it is included in the parliament’s negotiating mandate.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 6:00 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
OpenSeas wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:A few polls of which the Scottish one is the most startling

Panelbase/S Times (Scotland Westminster):

SNP 47 (=)
CON 28 (+1)
LAB 14 (-1)
LD 4 (=)
UKIP 3 (=)
GRN 3 (=)

N=1,008

Might be worth us finally having a look at what the political map would look like, should the 'Ruth Davidson revolution' retain its current firepower.

Scotland has become the North of Ireland.

Look away now if you're squeamish.

SNP 37 seats (-19)
Conservative 22 seats (+21)
Labour 0 seats (-1)
Liberal Democrat 0 seats (-1)

Current boundaries
No way would those figures produce anything like that outcome. More likely that Labour will have at least a dead cat bounce once Jez and Kez are gone (both likely by 2020)

IF Corbyn is replaced.

If he isn't, I'd expect the Tories to be utterly merciless, and for the smoothly oiled Milne vote losing machine to be catastrophic during any election campaign.

Scotland has become the North of Ireland

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sun 19 Mar, 2017 6:38 pm

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 11h11 hours ago
More
Scottish independence poll:

Yes: 44% (-2)
No: 56% (+2)

(via Panelbase)
Chgs. w/ Feb 2017.

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday it was "Greens and SNP over 50%", as if that backed Sturgeon's view on the referendum timing.