Saturday 1st and Sunday 2nd April 2017

[AnatolyKasparov]

Because the normal response to the downturn, monetary policy, was closed off by our ERM membership. We pushed up rates to enter the ERM at a high level, then kept them there to keep ourselves in.

No, that's wrong too. Rates went back over 10% in 1988 to try and push inflation down - it was the only instrument they had since abandoning all though of controlling the money supply.

And they peaked at 15%, for an entire year. They actually (finally) dropped when we entered the ERM!

[SpinningHugo]

I do love a board where people argue that the ERM was a great policy, that caused the UK no economic damage either in the run up to entry or during membership in the run up to the 92 election.

It couldn't possibly be that you're arguing because of the person from whom the counter proposition comes?

[RogerOThornhill]

No Hugo, it's because you're simply wrong. And I'd say that to anyone who came out with the same.

Find me any reputable economist that has ever said that the early 90s recession was caused by our ERM membership or that rates were raised in order to join it.

[RogerOThornhill]

Here's the base rates for the period leading up to the recession in late 1990 and afterwards.

[SpinningHugo]

No Hugo, it's because you're simply wrong. And I'd say that to anyone who came out with the same.

Find me any reputable economist that has ever said that the early 90s recession was caused by our ERM membership or that rates were raised in order to join it.

So you're claiming we didn't enter the ERM at too high a level? And that no economists think that.

I see.

How do governments control the level of their currency?

[55DegreesNorth]

I do love a board where people argue that the ERM was a great policy,

I must have missed that. Who said the ERM was a great policy?

[SpinningHugo]

Here's the base rates for the period leading up to the recession in late 1990 and afterwards.

yes, and notice the point at which those rates fall off a cliff.

What do you think the event was that enabled that sharp change of policy?

[SpinningHugo]

I do love a board where people argue that the ERM was a great policy,

I must have missed that. Who said the ERM was a great policy?

Plenty of people here arguing that it wasn't a cause of economic harm, the earlier Lawson boom was, See above.

[RogerOThornhill]

No Hugo, it's because you're simply wrong. And I'd say that to anyone who came out with the same.

Find me any reputable economist that has ever said that the early 90s recession was caused by our ERM membership or that rates were raised in order to join it.

So you're claiming we didn't enter the ERM at too high a level? And that no economists think that.

I see.

How do governments control the level of their currency?

Do I really need to ask the questions again?

[RogerOThornhill]

I'll just leave this here...

http://econ.economicshelp.org/2008/01/l ... 1980s.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Conclusion

The 1980s was a missed opportunity and the recession of 1991 unnecessary. By the mid 1980s, the government had reduced inflation - through a deep recession. There had also been some supply side reforms which helped aspects of the economy. Privatisation and reform of trades unions did help increase productivity and efficiency. However, these improvements were nothing like enough to enable a 'supply side miracle'. The main lesson of the Lawson boom was that the government made a big mistake in allowing the economy grow too fast, leading to inflation and an unsustainable boom. The consequence of this boom, was a painful recession as belatedly the government tried to bring inflation down again.

[SpinningHugo]

I'll just leave this here...

http://econ.economicshelp.org/2008/01/l ... 1980s.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Conclusion

The 1980s was a missed opportunity and the recession of 1991 unnecessary. By the mid 1980s, the government had reduced inflation - through a deep recession. There had also been some supply side reforms which helped aspects of the economy. Privatisation and reform of trades unions did help increase productivity and efficiency. However, these improvements were nothing like enough to enable a 'supply side miracle'. The main lesson of the Lawson boom was that the government made a big mistake in allowing the economy grow too fast, leading to inflation and an unsustainable boom. The consequence of this boom, was a painful recession as belatedly the government tried to bring inflation down again.

I don't deny that the Lawson boom was a bad mistake.

What I deny is the claim that the ERM policy was not also economically damaging.

[Tubby Isaacs]

In which Red Tory MSM puppet Britain Elects irritates the faithful by calling out Len McCluskey "neck and neck before the coup" bollocks.

I know it's only Twitter but I really worry how many of these fools there are in Labour.

There was a big drop in Labour support just after the referendum. That much is indisputable fact.

It's high disputable.

It was actually falling slightly before the referendum, like the Tories were.

http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories picked up a load of Kipper voters after the referendum. Labour lost hardly any support between the strike and the re-election of Corbyn.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I do love a board where people argue that the ERM was a great policy, that caused the UK no economic damage either in the run up to entry or during membership in the run up to the 92 election.

It couldn't possibly be that you're arguing because of the person from whom the counter proposition comes?

I've always had good relations with you, but you're not at your best on this.

[SpinningHugo]

In which Red Tory MSM puppet Britain Elects irritates the faithful by calling out Len McCluskey "neck and neck before the coup" bollocks.

I know it's only Twitter but I really worry how many of these fools there are in Labour.

There was a big drop in Labour support just after the referendum. That much is indisputable fact.

It's high disputable.

It was actually falling slightly before the referendum, like the Tories were.

http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories picked up a load of Kipper voters after the referendum. Labour lost hardly any support between the strike and the re-election of Corbyn.

Looks like a near straight line down from August 2016, with the Tories picking up lots of support from Ukips post-referendum.

More on 'neck and neck'

http://publicpolicypast.blogspot.co.uk/ ... -with.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Tubby Isaacs]

Christ almighty.

https://www.thecanary.co/2017/04/01/mig ... ts-images/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You might want to stop sharing ‘poll’ results from Britain Elects

By Kerry Ann Mendoza.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'll just leave this here...

http://econ.economicshelp.org/2008/01/l ... 1980s.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Conclusion

The 1980s was a missed opportunity and the recession of 1991 unnecessary. By the mid 1980s, the government had reduced inflation - through a deep recession. There had also been some supply side reforms which helped aspects of the economy. Privatisation and reform of trades unions did help increase productivity and efficiency. However, these improvements were nothing like enough to enable a 'supply side miracle'. The main lesson of the Lawson boom was that the government made a big mistake in allowing the economy grow too fast, leading to inflation and an unsustainable boom. The consequence of this boom, was a painful recession as belatedly the government tried to bring inflation down again.

I don't deny that the Lawson boom was a bad mistake.

What I deny is the claim that the ERM policy was not also economically damaging.

That wasn't where we started. It was "the ERM caused the recession".

[HindleA]

http://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/dw ... een-paper/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

DWP presentation on ESA plans ‘confirms worst fears’ about green paper

[RogerOThornhill]

That wasn't where we started. It was "the ERM caused the recession".

Correct. And as yet despite having asked several times I haven't yet seen any independent backup of this claim.

[tinybgoat]

I do love a board where people argue that the ERM was a great policy, that caused the UK no economic damage either in the run up to entry or during membership in the run up to the 92 election.

It couldn't possibly be that you're arguing because of the person from whom the counter proposition comes?

I've always had good relations with you, but you're not at your best on this.

Yeah, It's a bit like an economic version of "I know an old woman who swallowed a fly...".
The fly didn't kill her but was the trigger that led to her demise.
Hugo would be arguing that it was eating the horse that killed her, and that anyone suggesting the fly was the initial problem is therefore claiming that eating the horse was a good idea.?

[refitman]

RIP Darcus Howe.

[AnatolyKasparov]

RIP Yevgeny Yevtushenko.

[55DegreesNorth]

I do love a board where people argue that the ERM was a great policy,

I must have missed that. Who said the ERM was a great policy?

Plenty of people here arguing that it wasn't a cause of economic harm, the earlier Lawson boom was, See above.

You seem to have misunderstood my question.

[RogerOThornhill]

Ming Ho‏ @Minghowriter 5h5 hours ago
More
Brexiteers: buy yourselves a blue cover for your EU passport. You're happy, we save £500m, everyone at Customs knows you're a twat. #winwin

[tinyclanger2]

exploring the biology of outrage:

http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4281.short" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Honesty mediates the relationship between serotonin and reaction to unfairness
Contrary to the common belief that aggressive personalities (impulsivity or hostility) are related to the high rejection rate of unfair offers in UG, we found that individuals with apparently peaceful personalities (straightforwardness and trust) rejected more often and were engaged in personally costly forms of retaliation. Furthermore, individuals with a low level of serotonin transporters in the dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN) are honest and trustful, and thus cannot tolerate unfairness, being candid in expressing their frustrations.

[tinyclanger2]

Aaron Banks :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... tin-russia" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
“We worked out how to take their outrage, how to take their pain – in your case – and feed it back into the system. You know we spent £12-14m on the campaign? And we calculated what our column inches and TV coverage was worth. It was over £150m .”

[tinyclanger2]

Anyone got any spare serotonin transporters for me dorsal raphe nucleus?

[citizenJA]

Matthew d'Ancona

...the government will indeed make extensive use of secondary legislation – legal changes that do not require a completely new act of parliament. At present, ministers estimate that between 800 and 1,000 such statutory instruments will be required.

Predictably, MPs have objected that this means Whitehall, rather than parliament, will be “taking back control”. But this is constitutional alarmism. In October 2015, the Lords blocked George Osborne’s plan to cut tax credits by means of secondary legislation – proof that parliament is more than willing to override such instruments if it sees grounds to object. If it feels that the government is overstepping the mark, the joint committee of the two houses on statutory instruments can take appropriate action.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... epeal-bill" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the House of Lords arbiter of peoples' protections
d'Ancona has the gall to bring up an Osborne budget alteration as evidence of sufficient democratic oversight
the least well-off still the least protected

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The Guardian view on bereavement benefit cuts: cruel, stingy, wrong
Editorial


https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Having a partner die is a lifestyle choice,these people are pure filth.

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ign-cartoo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Martin Rowson on the British passport's post-Brexit redesign

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Welfare shakeup 'will push a quarter of a million children into poverty'

[AnatolyKasparov]

Matthew d'Ancona

...the government will indeed make extensive use of secondary legislation – legal changes that do not require a completely new act of parliament. At present, ministers estimate that between 800 and 1,000 such statutory instruments will be required.

Predictably, MPs have objected that this means Whitehall, rather than parliament, will be “taking back control”. But this is constitutional alarmism. In October 2015, the Lords blocked George Osborne’s plan to cut tax credits by means of secondary legislation – proof that parliament is more than willing to override such instruments if it sees grounds to object. If it feels that the government is overstepping the mark, the joint committee of the two houses on statutory instruments can take appropriate action.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... epeal-bill" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Panglossian rubbish from somebody who has long made a habit of it.

[tinyclanger2]

Flouncy Ununited Kingdom and ExDominions indeed

[tinybgoat]

Anyone got any spare serotonin transporters for me dorsal raphe nucleus?

Dont know if it gets as far as the dorsal thingy, but Boosting Serotonin levels:
Here:
http://www.naturallivingideas.com/boost-serotonin/

Or, maybe better (funnier & doesn't include reducing alcohol consumption):

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/pr ... n-activity

If your low-serotonin activity is making you feel too rushed to finish reading blog posts, I'll just spoil the surprise right here and tell you the punch-line. The four ways to boost serotonin activity are sunlight, massage, exercise, and remembering happy events. At this point feel free to return to your stressful life, or keep reading for a more in depth look.

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... nefit-cuts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


“My death, on or before Thursday, changes my family’s wellbeing to the tune of tens of thousands.

[HindleA]

Pension service administration of course.

[Tubby Isaacs]

How on earth can Parliament fight 800 statutory instruments at once?

[PorFavor]

Ed Miliband recalls shock at exit poll

In an interview with the BBC's Eddie Mair, former Labour leader Ed Miliband recalls the "terrible shock" of the exit poll that foresaw his 2015 general election defeat. (BBC News headline)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472446

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ed Miliband recalls shock at exit poll

In an interview with the BBC's Eddie Mair, former Labour leader Ed Miliband recalls the "terrible shock" of the exit poll that foresaw his 2015 general election defeat. (BBC News headline)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472446

Tell me about it.

[citizenJA]

Ed Miliband recalls shock at exit poll

In an interview with the BBC's Eddie Mair, former Labour leader Ed Miliband recalls the "terrible shock" of the exit poll that foresaw his 2015 general election defeat. (BBC News headline)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39472446

Tell me about it.

I've never forgotten it either
Surprising how often I recall it even now
Didn't take a soothsayer to know what a Tory government would do

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA

[HindleA]

I hate Stat X plore unfortunately the tabulation tool which it replaced stopped updating last year and removed,.Neither it or the propagandised statistical summaries has the info I am looking for.

[gilsey]

I don't think we'd have predicted they'd do this.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... nefit-cuts


“My death, on or before Thursday, changes my family’s wellbeing to the tune of tens of thousands.

I can't find words.

[HindleA]

They've increased BP to 3,500 and lowered age/extended BA to 18 months,so I would have personally gained because of no children.Usual Tory tactic of minimal increase for some at the expense of others,dressed as "better targetting".

[HindleA]

Previous Labour Governments,not adverse to such shenanigans,to be fair.