Tuesday 4th April 2017

[refitman]

Morning all.

[RogerOThornhill]

Morning all.

Law and Policy‏ @Law_and_policy 3m3 minutes ago
More
Former Tory leader casually mentions war with Spain.
PM: no response.

"Easter" to be removed from an egg hunt.
PM: "absolutely ridiculous"

Quite.

[NonOxCol]

Morning all.

Law and Policy‏ @Law_and_policy 3m3 minutes ago
More
Former Tory leader casually mentions war with Spain.
PM: no response.

"Easter" to be removed from an egg hunt.
PM: "absolutely ridiculous"

Quite.

The man behind the Daily Male says:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quite.

[NonOxCol]

When winning and being OUT matters more than sober economic assessment, when you completely ignore the nature of who's fighting most strongly for this nightmare outcome...

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[HindleA]

Morning


http://notthetreasuryview.blogspot.co.u ... s.html?m=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Spreadsheets are people too: statistics and reality

J.Portes.

[NonOxCol]

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Land Ahoy! I think we might just have arrived here at last:

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[RogerOThornhill]

joe‏
@mutablejoe

Follow
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Nobody remembers the real story of Easter egg hunts anymore when Jesus lost an egg and was all like "where's my egg" and they looked for it

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Disabled students fear for their future as independence payments cut

[tinybgoat]

"Is Trump now part of the establishment?"
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39483715" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Already there are signs that conservative true-believers - some of whom were never fully sold on Mr Trump to begin with - are questioning Mr Trump's anti-establishment bona fides.

Suppose it depends on what you classify as 'the establishment', but short of draining the swamp & redeveloping it as a golf course, what clues do they need?

[NonOxCol]

And... just when you thought this morning couldn't get any worse, here's Nige:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[adam]

UK life expectancy among pensioners drops for first time in decades - From The Independent, 3 days ago

There has been an 'unprecedented' rise in mortality rate, according to ONS data

Updated projections from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggest life expectancy will fall by four months for a 65-year-old man and by six months for a woman of the same age. Figures show that men aged 65 are anticipated to live a further 22.2 years, down from 22.8 years in 2013 and women a further 24.1 years, down from 25.1 years four years ago.

The data were compiled in the institute's Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) unit and supplied by the Office of National Statistics.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Ah yes, Easter - yet another tradition Christianity took from the pagans.

[NonOxCol]

Haven't read it for four years - how does Private Eye keep up if it's still fortnightly and the same size???

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

UK life expectancy among pensioners drops for first time in decades - From The Independent, 3 days ago

There has been an 'unprecedented' rise in mortality rate, according to ONS data

Updated projections from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggest life expectancy will fall by four months for a 65-year-old man and by six months for a woman of the same age. Figures show that men aged 65 are anticipated to live a further 22.2 years, down from 22.8 years in 2013 and women a further 24.1 years, down from 25.1 years four years ago.

The data were compiled in the institute's Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) unit and supplied by the Office of National Statistics.

Good to see that story's finally reaching the MSM, we've already had it here a couple of times.

edited - in fact JC's talking about it, so we'll see where it goes from there, tories denying it, of course. Think they might struggle with that.

[NonOxCol]

I mean, this is just...



" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

UK life expectancy among pensioners drops for first time in decades - From The Independent, 3 days ago

There has been an 'unprecedented' rise in mortality rate, according to ONS data

Updated projections from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggest life expectancy will fall by four months for a 65-year-old man and by six months for a woman of the same age. Figures show that men aged 65 are anticipated to live a further 22.2 years, down from 22.8 years in 2013 and women a further 24.1 years, down from 25.1 years four years ago.

The data were compiled in the institute's Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) unit and supplied by the Office of National Statistics.

Good to see that story's finally reaching the MSM, we've already had it here a couple of times.

edited - in fact JC's talking about it, so we'll see where it goes from there, tories denying it, of course. Think they might struggle with that.

JC mentioned it yesterday - almost immediately an EXTREMELY RESPECTED AND SERIOUS lobby journalist used it as proof he was a nutter fantasist

[SpinningHugo]

1. If you hate the media and cant disguise that when dealing with them, Leader of the Opposition is not the job for you.

2. The problem for Labour is now one that the Greens and Lib Dems have faced in the past. If you aren't going to be in government, then what you would do if you were is not a news story. The media aren't as a result interested. Internal party machinations, or poor poll ratings are a news story,

3. Giving out the judgment on Ken "Hitler was a Zionist" Livingstone on the day you launch your local election campaign is not a great idea.

[gilsey]

The Secret Barrister's nailed it
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[SpinningHugo]

UK life expectancy among pensioners drops for first time in decades - From The Independent, 3 days ago

There has been an 'unprecedented' rise in mortality rate, according to ONS data

Updated projections from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggest life expectancy will fall by four months for a 65-year-old man and by six months for a woman of the same age. Figures show that men aged 65 are anticipated to live a further 22.2 years, down from 22.8 years in 2013 and women a further 24.1 years, down from 25.1 years four years ago.

The data were compiled in the institute's Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) unit and supplied by the Office of National Statistics.

To be honest, I think that is misleading having now read the ONS data

What has happened is that the rate of improvement has slowed. So the earlier actuarial estimate was wrong as it assumed improvements would continue at the same rate before. As that isn't happening, the earlier estimate has been adjusted.

There aren't earlier deaths, as Corbyn implies in his speech

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1591853 ... ours-local" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[tinybgoat]

joe‏
@mutablejoe

Follow
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Nobody remembers the real story of Easter egg hunts anymore when Jesus lost an egg and was all like "where's my egg" and they looked for it

Maybe asking Judas to arrange for dippy eggs & soldiers wasn't a good idea.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I mean, this is just...



" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just as with our PM, don't they have anything better to do?

[tinybgoat]

Ah yes, Easter - yet another tradition Christianity took from the pagans.

Well, that's not wot it says here .....

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/anxiousben ... an-easter/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

Interesting from flipchartrick, including my own explanation of the 'productivity puzzle'.
https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.c ... ad-bosses/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I wonder how many firms care about productivity. Gross Value Add per worker is of interest to economists and ultimately determines how far living standards increase and how much tax revenue the country gets. But whether it is of interest to people running businesses is another matter. If you can make more profit simply by throwing more poorly paid people at something then why worry?

Exactly.

[RogerOThornhill]

I mean, this is just...



" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They even tweeted this.

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/featur ... his-easter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Join the Cadbury Egg Hunts this Easter

How to make yourself look utter fools - well done C of E...

[gilsey]

Another belter from that piece

At an ACAS event just over a year ago, Charlie Mayfield gave an example from his own sector of how cheap labour discourages productivity investment. In many French supermarkets the prices are updated with digital displays on the shelves. There is no point, he said, in doing this in the UK as it is cheaper to pay people to go round and update the prices. In France, however, with labour costs being much higher, the investment in the computerised system pays for itself.

[SpinningHugo]

Another belter from that piece

At an ACAS event just over a year ago, Charlie Mayfield gave an example from his own sector of how cheap labour discourages productivity investment. In many French supermarkets the prices are updated with digital displays on the shelves. There is no point, he said, in doing this in the UK as it is cheaper to pay people to go round and update the prices. In France, however, with labour costs being much higher, the investment in the computerised system pays for itself.

The French unemployment rate is 10% while in the UK it is 4.7%. One of the problem with the UK's good jobs performance, is that so many have been low paid, thereby lowering productivity figures.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Another belter from that piece

At an ACAS event just over a year ago, Charlie Mayfield gave an example from his own sector of how cheap labour discourages productivity investment. In many French supermarkets the prices are updated with digital displays on the shelves. There is no point, he said, in doing this in the UK as it is cheaper to pay people to go round and update the prices. In France, however, with labour costs being much higher, the investment in the computerised system pays for itself.

The French unemployment rate is 10% while in the UK it is 4.7%. One of the problem with the UK's good jobs performance, is that so many have been low paid, thereby lowering productivity figures.

Which means it can be argued - and indeed has been - that it isn't as "good" as all that.

[tinybgoat]

Another belter from that piece

At an ACAS event just over a year ago, Charlie Mayfield gave an example from his own sector of how cheap labour discourages productivity investment. In many French supermarkets the prices are updated with digital displays on the shelves. There is no point, he said, in doing this in the UK as it is cheaper to pay people to go round and update the prices. In France, however, with labour costs being much higher, the investment in the computerised system pays for itself.

Similar thing can be seen in steel industry, comparing levels of automation between u.k & India, some jobs are still done manually in India, because wages are low & managers from Indian plants are surprised to see that the effort's been made to automate them.
Historically(UK) Some things may get automated for safety or reliability, but otherwise it's usually down to savings & often, especially in downturns, investment has to payback in (often stupidly) short time, so isn't done.

[RogerOThornhill]

Oh, interesting.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/st ... er-egg-row" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Civil servants and former special advisers believe that May’s swift response is due to her longstanding antipathy to Helen Ghosh, the National Trust's director-general, with whom she clashed when Ghosh was permanent secretary at the Home Office and May was Home Secretary. (Ghosh left the Home Office in 2012 to take up her current role running the National Trust.)

Worth pointing out that May's principal advisers were at the Home Office too.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think it's a good jobs performance, but a bad skills performance. There doesn't need to be a big trade off.

[SpinningHugo]

Bloody hate Cadbury's "chocolate" myself. Being a metropolitan elitist, I ear real choc.

[PorFavor]

Do I detect a note of, "I'm doing what the proles have asked me to do - so, if it all goes wrong, they're to blame" creeping into Theresa May's utterences of late?

[Willow904]

The French unemployment rate is 10% while in the UK it is 4.7%. One of the problem with the UK's good jobs performance, is that so many have been low paid, thereby lowering productivity figures.

Which means it can be argued - and indeed has been - that it isn't as "good" as all that.

France has a far smaller percentage of part-time workers than the UK. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that if we put part-time jobs together, making the extra part-timers we have to France theoretically unemployed, the UK would have a similar level of unemployment.

Oh and our GDP per capita is very similar to France, so if our workers aren't getting paid as well as theirs, it must be because we're Tory voting, union bashing, mugs.

[SpinningHugo]

French employment rate is even worse, around 65% when the UK's is 75%.

France in recent years is neither a success story, nor a model to follow.

[tinybgoat]

I think it's a good jobs performance, but a bad skills performance. There doesn't need to be a big trade off.

Not sure how productivity is measured, but would it be affected by plant utilisation?
ie; if demand for a product hasn't returned to prevent crash levels, an engineering company survives by focusing on the most profitable part of it's order book.
Overall production levels drop, profit per unit increases, but remaining workforce may be producing less per head & plant won't be running at maximum capacity or efficiency.

[Willow904]

French employment rate is even worse, around 65% when the UK's is 75%.

France in recent years is neither a success story, nor a model to follow.

The "employment rate" isn't a particularly enlightening statistic. It tells us nothing of under-employment. It also assumes all people would choose to work, when some may prefer to stay home and raise a family if they could afford to do so.

The point everyone is making is that France's higher unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean they are in a worse state than us, anymore than it suggests they're doing any better.

Same GDP per capita. Therefore we have the same capacity to redistribute the same level of wealth to all our citizens, but are following different paths leading to very different outcomes, that's the point for me. It shows how significant political choices can be.

[SpinningHugo]

French employment rate is even worse, around 65% when the UK's is 75%.

France in recent years is neither a success story, nor a model to follow.

The "employment rate" isn't a particularly enlightening statistic. It tells us nothing of under-employment. It also assumes all people would choose to work, when some may prefer to stay home and raise a family if they could afford to do so.

The point everyone is making is that France's higher unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean they are in a worse state than us, anymore than it suggests they're doing any better.

Same GDP per capita. Therefore we have the same capacity to redistribute the same level of wealth to all our citizens, but are following different paths leading to very different outcomes, that's the point for me. It shows how significant political choices can be.

Oh, I think it does matter. It matters for long term social cohesion if you have large numbers of economically inactive people. See the banilieues. Bad for equality, bad for self worth.

There are, of course, lots of other factors in play, but on this I think the French have got the balance badly wrong.

[AnatolyKasparov]

The point is not that the French 65% is good, but that a large proportion of our 75% is made up of low-pay insecure "employment".

[SpinningHugo]

Very interesting, and true, on why Burnham, the most inept of the front rank Labour pols of his generation, is not viewed with the same affection Sadiq is

http://www.citymetric.com/politics/andy ... other-2912" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Tubby Isaacs]

Working tax credits need guaranteeing and expanding. Paid for by tax rises.

I could take it if Labour were unpopular because it was speaking awkward truths on tax like it did till 1992. But it isn't. It's unpopular before its done any hard work. Flailing around with nonsense like a maximum wage and pulling a minimum wage rate out of John McDonnell's arse. And committing to the pensions triple lock.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The point is not that the French 65% is good, but that a large proportion of our 75% is made up of low-pay insecure "employment".

Skills problem. The labour market isnt too wrong. Provided the pay continues to be properly topped up.

[Willow904]

French employment rate is even worse, around 65% when the UK's is 75%.

France in recent years is neither a success story, nor a model to follow.

The "employment rate" isn't a particularly enlightening statistic. It tells us nothing of under-employment. It also assumes all people would choose to work, when some may prefer to stay home and raise a family if they could afford to do so.

The point everyone is making is that France's higher unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean they are in a worse state than us, anymore than it suggests they're doing any better.

Same GDP per capita. Therefore we have the same capacity to redistribute the same level of wealth to all our citizens, but are following different paths leading to very different outcomes, that's the point for me. It shows how significant political choices can be.

Oh, I think it does matter. It matters for long term social cohesion if you have large numbers of economically inactive people. See the banilieues. Bad for equality, bad for self worth.

There are, of course, lots of other factors in play, but on this I think the French have got the balance badly wrong.

Economically inactive can include gap years, early retirement, caring and, that old chestnut, raising a family. If these things are undervalued in relation to being in paid servitude work I think that may also be bad for social cohesion and self worth. People actually get greater satisfaction and self worth from volunteering than they do in the same role as employees. Work isn't fulfilling because it's paid but because of the independence that pay allows. If you are working part time and being hounded by the DWP to constantly look for more work in return for top up benefits to achieve a level of income on which you can survive, do you really have more self-worth than someone collecting social security to which they are entitled through contributions while they are between jobs? Just a thought.

[SpinningHugo]

Working tax credits need guaranteeing and expanding. Paid for by tax rises.

I could take it if Labour were unpopular because it was speaking awkward truths on tax like it did till 1992. But it isn't. It's unpopular before its done any hard work. Flailing around with nonsense like a maximum wage and pulling a minimum wage rate out of John McDonnell's arse. And committing to the pensions triple lock.

Once you lose the discipline of possibly being in power, and having to implement what you promised, your proposals don't really have to be sensible.

See also the referendum. Leave could promise any crackpot stuff they liked.

[Tubby Isaacs]

To be clear, I'm not at all backing the DWP shite when I say the labour market isn't too bad. I'd go back to abut 2007 when Jonathan Porte's was there.

[SpinningHugo]

French employment rate is even worse, around 65% when the UK's is 75%.

France in recent years is neither a success story, nor a model to follow.

Economically inactive can include gap years, early retirement, caring and, that old chestnut, raising a family. If these things are undervalued in relation to being in paid servitude work I think that may also be bad for social cohesion and self worth. People actually get greater satisfaction and self worth from volunteering than they do in the same role as employees. Work isn't fulfilling because it's paid but because of the independence that pay allows. If you are working part time and being hounded by the DWP to constantly look for more work in return for top up benefits to achieve a level of income on which you can survive, do you really have more self-worth than someone collecting social security to which they are entitled through contributions while they are between jobs? Just a thought.

[/quote]

It can indeed. French early retirement is a serious economic problem.

But the gap between 75% employment and 65% is huge. It isn't accounted for by people doing more charity work.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Re SH's comment above about the leave campaign - that didn't work out too badly for them, it has to be said.......

[seeingclearly]

UK life expectancy among pensioners drops for first time in decades - From The Independent, 3 days ago

There has been an 'unprecedented' rise in mortality rate, according to ONS data

Updated projections from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggest life expectancy will fall by four months for a 65-year-old man and by six months for a woman of the same age. Figures show that men aged 65 are anticipated to live a further 22.2 years, down from 22.8 years in 2013 and women a further 24.1 years, down from 25.1 years four years ago.

The data were compiled in the institute's Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) unit and supplied by the Office of National Statistics.

To be honest, I think that is misleading having now read the ONS data

What has happened is that the rate of improvement has slowed. So the earlier actuarial estimate was wrong as it assumed improvements would continue at the same rate before. As that isn't happening, the earlier estimate has been adjusted.

There aren't earlier deaths, as Corbyn implies in his speech

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1591853 ... ours-local" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tbf, Your thoughts are often not based on anything but the hobby horse you ride in on. The figures do not show a slower rate of improvement. They show a doubling in the raw mortality figures in the period from 2013-16 with no commensurate difference in the way the statistics are collected. This has as yet been unaccounted for. Various attempts have been made to explain them, including a spurious claim that flu dates for 2015-6 cross a two year period. (Dec15-Mar16) Hancebmy use of the word 'spurious'. Get off your hobby horse for goodness sake. The villain is not Corbyn.

[citizenJA]

Oh, I think it does matter. It matters for long term social cohesion if you have large numbers of economically inactive people. See the banilieues. Bad for equality, bad for self worth.

There are, of course, lots of other factors in play, but on this I think the French have got the balance badly wrong.

(cJA edit)

[citizenJA]

Good-afternoon, everyone

[SpinningHugo]

Tbf, Your thoughts are often not based on anything but the hobby horse you ride in on. The figures do not show a slower rate of improvement. They show a doubling in the raw mortality figures in the period from 2013-16 with no commensurate difference in the way the statistics are collected. This has as yet been unaccounted for. Various attempts have been made to explain them, including a spurious claim that flu dates for 2015-6 cross a two year period. (Dec15-Mar16) Hancebmy use of the word 'spurious'. Get off your hobby horse for goodness sake. The villain is not Corbyn.

My instant reaction on looking at the ONS data, is also the view of the Institute Actuaries themselves, on whose data the claim is based

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is the forecast for life expectancy that has fallen, not life expectancy itself: that has continued to rise.

Thanks for your input though.