Wednesday 5th April 2017

Post by **refitman** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:10 am

Morning all.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:29 am

refitman wrote:Morning all.

Good morning.

On mortality rates, which Corbyn was quite right to highlight even if he made a small slip, I thought this article summed it up.

http://www.pionline.com/article/2017040 ... 2-analysis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

revised-mortality-tables-spur-36-drop-in-uk-pension-deficit-in-march

Like Corbyn I struggle to wrap the correct English round explaining this. But I don't think it's a good thing.

“In a period when Article 50 was triggered (to exit the European Union) and many voices of doom had predicted chaos in markets and more trouble for pension schemes, we have in fact seen fairly calm markets and a boost to pension schemes in the form of these latest mortality tables,” added Mr. Cowling

My emphasis.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:38 am

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... uts-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

sure-start-childrens-centres-cuts-labour

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is expected to highlight the figures in Southwark, south London, on Wednesday as he sets out how Labour will stand up for working families.

The shadow education secretary, Angela Rayner, commenting on the figures, said: “The Tories claim they’re protecting Sure Start, but they’re not. They use tricky accounting methods – like pointing to buildings which are still open but which are running much-reduced services – to try to pull the wool over people’s eyes.”

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:40 am

Local sources in Colne Valley suggest the long-promised electrification of the trans-Pennine line will now be delayed until 2020

Northern Powerhouse?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:42 am

Free movement of people from the EU to the UK could be extended after Brexit, Theresa May has suggested.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39498647" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:43 am

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-05/brex ... arliament/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

brexit-deal-terms-up-for-debate-in-european-parliament

What terms are expected to be debated:
• The insistence of a term saying Britain must meet all its financial obligations to the bloc - this could be worth billions according to estimates
• Clarification that there "can be no trade-off between security and the future economic relationship" between the EU and UK
• Issue of access to the single market only being permitted if the UK accepts free movement of workers
• Requirements that the Northern Irish peace process must continue and no hard border with the Irish Republic is established
• A stipulation that any deal on future EU-UK trade arrangements be delayed until after Britain's withdrawal

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:49 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... go-duterte" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte

UK trade minister is in the Philippines to meet a president who has publicly encouraged civilians to kill drug addicts

Sorry if this was linked last night.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:54 am

"The decaying tree under whose shadow nothing can grow"

"No one can effectively speak for the 48% until the 25% realise that their time voting for a party that could form an alternative government is done."

Absoilutely right. As a mamber of the 48%, I appeal to those on this board who are members of the 25% to realise this.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... st-bow-out" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Never felt more true to me than in the wake of the unbelievable decision on Livingstone.

This tree isn't getting better. It needs to be felled so that new growth can arise. Stop trying to keep it alive.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 7:57 am

Morning.

Following on from Bristol's apostrophe vigilante, a pop quiz to keep everyone in their toes. I got 7/10. A reasonable score, I thought, falling short of all out obsession.

http://play.bbc.co.uk/play/pen/gwcv37b8rq" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And for those who don't know about Bristol's grammar graffitist:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ar-bristol" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:00 am

SpinningHugo wrote:"The decaying tree under whose shadow nothing can grow"

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... st-bow-out" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Never felt more true to me than in the wake of the unbelievable decision on Livingstone.

This tree isn't getting better. It needs to be felled so that new growth can arise.

Any views on any of the items I have just posted?

I'd genuinely love to hear your thoughts.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:03 am

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

Following on from Bristol's apostrophe vigilante, a pop quiz to keep everyone in their toes. I got 7/10. A reasonable score, I thought, falling short of all out obsession.

http://play.bbc.co.uk/play/pen/gwcv37b8rq" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And for those who don't know about Bristol's grammar graffitist:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ar-bristol" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Beat you I got 8

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:08 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:"The decaying tree under whose shadow nothing can grow"

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... st-bow-out" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Never felt more true to me than in the wake of the unbelievable decision on Livingstone.

This tree isn't getting better. It needs to be felled so that new growth can arise.
Any views on any of the items I have just posted?

I'd genuinely love to hear your thoughts.

On the first, there was a forecasting error, as I said yesterday. Life expectancy isn't increasing as fast as was thought. Life expectancy itself is still increasing however.

What Corbyn said was misleading. The launch of the local government campaign yesterday was overshadowed predictably by the disgraceful Livingstone decision, and by Corbyn (or his adviostor's) incompetence in misunderstanding the life expectancy story.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:12 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... uts-labour

sure-start-childrens-centres-cuts-labour
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is expected to highlight the figures in Southwark, south London, on Wednesday as he sets out how Labour will stand up for working families.

The shadow education secretary, Angela Rayner, commenting on the figures, said: “The Tories claim they’re protecting Sure Start, but they’re not. They use tricky accounting methods – like pointing to buildings which are still open but which are running much-reduced services – to try to pull the wool over people’s eyes.”

On this, the reason Labour isn't able to make things like this a news story is that Labour isn't a viable alternative government. It doesn't matter what Labour would do in government, as it won't be. This is a problem the Greens and Lib Dems have long had to face.

Corbyn got cross about this on ITV yesterday, but the truth is his leadership is newsworthy, what Labour would do if it won power isn't as it won't.

Labour is now in a paradxical bind. It can't get a hearing because it won't win, it won't win partly because it can't get a hearing.

On the substance, I of course agree with Labour, but so what? We all do don't we?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:13 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Free movement of people from the EU to the UK could be extended after Brexit, Theresa May has suggested.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39498647" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't think said anything significant.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:15 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... go-duterte

liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte

UK trade minister is in the Philippines to meet a president who has publicly encouraged civilians to kill drug addicts
Sorry if this was linked last night.

Really odd. How much trade can we possibly do with the Philippines? Fox is an embarrassment.

Enough P?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:25 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Morning.

Following on from Bristol's apostrophe vigilante, a pop quiz to keep everyone in their toes. I got 7/10. A reasonable score, I thought, falling short of all out obsession.

http://play.bbc.co.uk/play/pen/gwcv37b8rq" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And for those who don't know about Bristol's grammar graffitist:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ar-bristol" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Beat you I got 8

I got a 7.

The one about the possessive of Jesus - well, my MHRA style guide disagrees with them - "the possessive of names ending in -us conforms to the normal rule"

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:30 am

9/10. #2 wrong.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:32 am

Having read Roger's post, make that 10/10.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:33 am

frightful_oik wrote:9/10. #2 wrong.

That's not very oikish!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:33 am

frightful_oik wrote:Having read Roger's post, make that 10/10.

Definitely not an oik then

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:36 am

SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... go-duterte

liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte

UK trade minister is in the Philippines to meet a president who has publicly encouraged civilians to kill drug addicts
Sorry if this was linked last night.
Really odd. How much trade can we possibly do with the Philippines? Fox is an embarrassment.

Enough P?

Thanks for the replies. On the freedom of movement thing, I agree with you. So why is the BBC flagging it? Presumably this debate in the EU parliament t is likely to go badly for May and they're lowering expectations beforehand?

* Sorry for the temporary glitch Hugo I used edit instead of reply

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 8:45 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... go-duterte

liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte

UK trade minister is in the Philippines to meet a president who has publicly encouraged civilians to kill drug addicts
Sorry if this was linked last night.

So shows either Fox is a total git who will trade with anyone,
or we'll be desperate for every/any trade deals we can get
or probably both.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 9:04 am

Morning. I have obvious issues with Corbyn and Labour and my frustration sometimes gets the better of me, though I can't quite understand the energy people find to go with that *every day* when Tuesday was one of the most embarrassing and humiliating days' government I've known as a Briton, and elsewhere shit like this is happening:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"President" blames predecessor for Syria chemical attack, basically.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 9:10 am

In case it needed underlining:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 9:42 am

How can we know the truth of what's happening in Syria?

There's little independent reporting in the region because it's too dangerous.

I only ask because I don't understand why Assad would choose to use chemical weapons at this point. He's got a long way towards achieving what he wants to achieve without the use of chemical weapons since 2013. Why would he want to attract the negative attention of the UN and the US again, when the war has been going his way? Is he emboldened by Trump's presidency? Does he feel safe to act without fear of reprisal? Or is he telling the truth? Are the chemical weapons being manufactured by Isis? Isis contains former members of Saddam Hussein's Praetorian guard. Hussein had and used chemical weapons. That his followers have access to chemical weapons capabilities is not impossible.

Still, everyone involved in manufacturing these weapons are guilty, whether they are the ones to use them or not. Syria seems pretty stuffed whichever side comes out on top. None of these people should be running a country.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:11 am

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

Following on from Bristol's apostrophe vigilante, a pop quiz to keep everyone in their toes. I got 7/10. A reasonable score, I thought, falling short of all out obsession.

http://play.bbc.co.uk/play/pen/gwcv37b8rq" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And for those who don't know about Bristol's grammar graffitist:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ar-bristol" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I did the quiz - thanks. I'm not revealing my score. In fact, I shall obsessively keep it secret.

Edited for strange spacing.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:12 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... b-province" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tuesday’s strike came days after the US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, said the Trump administration was no longer prioritising the removal of Assad, and that the Syrian people would ultimately decide his fate.

Assad emboldened?

Trump unwilling to challenge Putin?

The global balance of power appears to be shifting. And the UK is aligning itself with dictators in preference to old European democracies.

Unhappy days.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:14 am

NonOxCol wrote:Morning. I have obvious issues with Corbyn and Labour and my frustration sometimes gets the better of me, though I can't quite understand the energy people find to go with that *every day* when Tuesday was one of the most embarrassing and humiliating days' government I've known as a Briton, and elsewhere shit like this is happening:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"President" blames predecessor for Syria chemical attack, basically.

Morning all.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:41 am

Good morfternoon.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:48 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
refitman wrote:Morning all.
Good morning.

On mortality rates, which Corbyn was quite right to highlight even if he made a small slip, I thought this article summed it up.

http://www.pionline.com/article/2017040 ... 2-analysis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

revised-mortality-tables-spur-36-drop-in-uk-pension-deficit-in-march

Like Corbyn I struggle to wrap the correct English round explaining this. But I don't think it's a good thing.
“In a period when Article 50 was triggered (to exit the European Union) and many voices of doom had predicted chaos in markets and more trouble for pension schemes, we have in fact seen fairly calm markets and a boost to pension schemes in the form of these latest mortality tables,” added Mr. Cowling
My emphasis.

what had been put down to a blip in mortality data caused by a hard winter and some bad flu experience now may be part of a longer-term trend.

Seems pretty clear.
This is the report we linked earlier, which relates to the original data rather than the actuaries models.
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10 ... 6817693599" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:50 am

Or should it be actuaries' models?

I got 8.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 10:58 am

Same Farage, different day.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 11:12 am

SpinningHugo wrote:"The decaying tree under whose shadow nothing can grow"

"No one can effectively speak for the 48% until the 25% realise that their time voting for a party that could form an alternative government is done."

Absoilutely right. As a mamber of the 48%, I appeal to those on this board who are members of the 25% to realise this.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... st-bow-out" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Never felt more true to me than in the wake of the unbelievable decision on Livingstone.

This tree isn't getting better. It needs to be felled so that new growth can arise. Stop trying to keep it alive.

So in short, Runciman wants everybody to the left of the LibDems to f*** off forever.

Even though liberalism (certainly of the arrogant complacent "end of history" type Runciman espouses) is largely responsible for where we are now.

Forgive me if I would prefer to think Labour remains a viable project, whatever its short term difficulties.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 11:28 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Local sources in Colne Valley suggest the long-promised electrification of the trans-Pennine line will now be delayed until 2020

Northern Powerhouse?

Once it slips past 2019 it''s in the next Network Rail control period. Watch out for it slipping to 2024.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 11:32 am

And as far as Livingstone is concerned - sorry if this will offend some of the usual suspects but I DON'T CARE.

Its really not important save to the media and those who hang on their every word because they are incapable of thinking for themselves.

(and, needless to say, what Corbyn said about them yesterday was 1000% spot on. It doesn't matter how bad he is, they are worse and always will be)

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 11:54 am

Corbyn needs to be able to persuade Livingstone to take one for the team really.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:03 pm

I'm more concerned with the backsliding from May and Farage, and Fox's shared values tour.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:04 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:Anyone desperately trying to pin the Linvingstone decision on Corbyn should be aware that the current chair of the National Constitutional Committee has been in that role since before 2011 and is on the Labour First/Progress slate for re-election https://labourlist.org/2017/04/conferen ... hey-stand/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nah, haven't you heard Hugo? Labour (and its half million members) needs to die and let us "choose" between Tories and Liberals forever more.

That way lies utopia (rather than the dystopia it would, in reality, be)

But that Runciman piece! It seems that George Osborne and Tristram Hunt are the HEROES of LIBERAL BRITAIN!!!

Howling at that, absolutely HOWLING.

And this is the sort of stuff SH likes

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:11 pm

Tom Watson statement:

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:14 pm

In response to Corbyn's attack on the media yesterday, Iain Dale of LBC has extended him an invitation. It's up to Corbyn to accept if he wants to prove his point rather than behaving like a petulant child.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:26 pm

I hope he does take it up, if only to see if Dale sticks to *his* side of the bargain.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:35 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:Anyone desperately trying to pin the Linvingstone decision on Corbyn should be aware that the current chair of the National Constitutional Committee has been in that role since before 2011 and is on the Labour First/Progress slate for re-election https://labourlist.org/2017/04/conferen ... hey-stand/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is a complete disgrace, but not Corbyn's fault.

Yet again, i find myself in agreement with the vast bulk of the PLP. Poor sods.

Glad I'm not a member of such a party.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:38 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:And as far as Livingstone is concerned - sorry if this will offend some of the usual suspects but I DON'T CARE.

Its really not important save to the media and those who hang on their every word because they are incapable of thinking for themselves.

(and, needless to say, what Corbyn said about them yesterday was 1000% spot on. It doesn't matter how bad he is, they are worse and always will be)

Right.

So you think a prominent party member saying on national TV that Hitler supported Zionism just isn't a problem? He then doesn't apologise, digs in with lots of other wild offensive statements, and isn't expelled?

I don't agree.

This is a party that is now part of the problem, not the solution.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:43 pm

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:47 pm

ED Miliband:

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:53 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
RobertSnozers wrote:Anyone desperately trying to pin the Linvingstone decision on Corbyn should be aware that the current chair of the National Constitutional Committee has been in that role since before 2011 and is on the Labour First/Progress slate for re-election https://labourlist.org/2017/04/conferen ... hey-stand/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It is a complete disgrace, but not Corbyn's fault.

Yet again, i find myself in agreement with the vast bulk of the PLP. Poor sods.

Glad I'm not a member of such a party.
The members of the PLP who are campaigning for the re-election of the Chair of the committee whose decision they abhor?

How does that work, then?

No idea. And care less. Not my party, thankfully.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 12:58 pm

Ed Miliband wasn't 18 points back.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 1:00 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Corbyn needs to be able to persuade Livingstone to take one for the team really.
He needs to do something. He can't just leave this hanging. Has there been any reaction from Corbyn at all? Wasn't he informed of the decision before it went public? If he'd defended it or expressed concern at the decision straight away, he could have led the party in a co-ordinated stance. Now we have more and more senior Labour figures expressing unhappiness at the decision and a leader gone AWOL.
What can Corbyn do if he is not going to be accused of overruling party democracy? That committee is elected. Its decision was godawful, but it had the sole authority to make it. Are you arguing that the leader should act like a dictator?

Corbyn could have said exactly that - he's unhappy with the decision, but it's the committee's decision. And he'll review procedures.....or whatever. It's the absence, the vacuum at the top I'm unhappy with. He needs to defend this or distance himself from it, I'm not really bothered which, but he can't ignore it. A lot of people are very upset, some of them even genuinely so. As a leader, not saying anything is unacceptable. He needs to get on and give a statement.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 1:01 pm

OK, maybe "I don't care" about KL was slightly - slightly - overstating it. Its obviously a fudge and not a very good one.

But its still not THAT important in the wider scheme of things. Livingstone is now an irrelevance and - ban or no ban - will never hold office within the party again.

Meanwhile, the usual suspects are using this to paint anything short of full-throated support for Likudism as "anti-semitic"

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 05 Apr, 2017 1:05 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Corbyn needs to be able to persuade Livingstone to take one for the team really.
He needs to do something. He can't just leave this hanging. Has there been any reaction from Corbyn at all? Wasn't he informed of the decision before it went public? If he'd defended it or expressed concern at the decision straight away, he could have led the party in a co-ordinated stance. Now we have more and more senior Labour figures expressing unhappiness at the decision and a leader gone AWOL.
What can Corbyn do if he is not going to be accused of overruling party democracy? That committee is elected. Its decision was godawful, but it had the sole authority to make it. Are you arguing that the leader should act like a dictator?

Make sure Livingstone resigns. To be fair, he might well have already tried.