Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

A home from home
Forum rules
Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
pk1
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2314
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:58 pm

Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by pk1 »

The Last Leg with special guest, Ed Miliband, was a hoot.

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-last-leg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
User avatar
daydreamer
Minister of State
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:17 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by daydreamer »

Thanks pk1. I'm glad my fears were unfounded. I can watch it now. :)

I posted earlier in the week to highlight he was going to be on the programme, but feared that it wouldn't go well. Not because of Ed. More because of how people have been 'taught' to view him via our hateful media.

PfY has also indicated that the Twitter reaction has been very positive, with people posting things like "I never realised he was so funny." (No, because you swallowed the media crap).

I'm pleased it went well and that he's been well received, but evener sadder about 2015 now. :(

Morning everyone.
Smart has the plans, but stupid has the stories.
User avatar
refitman
Site Admin
Posts: 7772
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 7:22 pm
Location: Wombwell, United Kingdom

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by refitman »

Morning all.
User avatar
TechnicalEphemera
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

pk1 wrote:The Last Leg with special guest, Ed Miliband, was a hoot.

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-last-leg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thank you so much for posting that, most TV passes me by these days, but thanks to the wonders of broadband internet I shall be able to enjoy that.

If only Ed had won, how less screwed this country would be.
Release the Guardvarks.
SpinningHugo
Prime Minister
Posts: 4211
Joined: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 1:22 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

25 years since 92 election.

I remember it all too well. I'd spent weeks campaigning for Labour. We won in our seat,from the Tories, but the election night party... Oh dear. Have never felt sadder. Got drunk and behaved inappropriately. I wrote to Kinnock afterwards, and I still have his reply.

The Tories had put up billboards with "You Can't Trust Labour". A mate and me went round in his old escort painting over "ts" so that they read "You Can Trust Labour"

It was a sunny day, and I was doing one of the shifts at the polling station. The Tories had bussed a load of dementia patients over, and they were dazed and confused, didn't know where they were, let alone how to vote. It was really grim.

5 more years we had to put up with. FFS.
Last edited by SpinningHugo on Sat 08 Apr, 2017 10:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
SpinningHugo
Prime Minister
Posts: 4211
Joined: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 1:22 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
pk1 wrote:The Last Leg with special guest, Ed Miliband, was a hoot.

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-last-leg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thank you so much for posting that, most TV passes me by these days, but thanks to the wonders of broadband internet I shall be able to enjoy that.

If only Ed had won, how less screwed this country would be.
Sentimentality. It is a sin of the left. It is why we keep losing.

Miliband is one of the central reasons why we lost. He didn't realise in 2010 that he wasn't an appropriate leader. Because we lost in 2015, we now have Corbyn and never ending Tory rule.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15686
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

There was a clearly discernible move back to the Tories in the last 48 hours before voting, but even on polling day hardly anybody (them included) thought a majority was on.

As with 2015, that was a rare example of voters getting things wrong - the Tories did not deserve to win on either occasion.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

:lurk:
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
PaulfromYorkshire
Site Admin
Posts: 8331
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

SpinningHugo wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
pk1 wrote:The Last Leg with special guest, Ed Miliband, was a hoot.

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-last-leg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thank you so much for posting that, most TV passes me by these days, but thanks to the wonders of broadband internet I shall be able to enjoy that.

If only Ed had won, how less screwed this country would be.
Sentimentality. It is a sin of the left. It is why we keep losing.

Miliband is one of the central reasons why we lost. He didn't realise in 2010 that he wasn't an appropriate leader. Because we lost in 2015, we now have Corbyn and never ending Tory rule.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73296.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Scotland could leave the UK and join Canada instead, says author
'Even as a typical Canadian province, it would have more powers than it does now,' says Ken McGoogan
strangely appropriate given geological history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Euramerica_en.svg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

Mr Steel
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the ... 70521.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I can understand the anger from people who are furious at the National Trust for advertising an egg hunt without putting the word “Easter” before it.

Because sadly this is one more step in a common trend. Last week the RAC omitted the words “Our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ who died upon the cross for all our sins” from its suggested route to Cardiff. I was offended and disgusted, and certainly won’t be using the M4 as they advise.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

And this disturbs us because the religious aspect to Easter is central to most people’s thinking. Whenever anyone butters a hot cross bun they reflect on the serenity of the Lord Jesus at the Last Supper through to the betrayals of his disciples, and the sins of Pontius Pilate and the Roman crowds that welcomed his crucifixion. And we give an extra thought to the effect on Saint Peter if it’s toasted.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

The National Trust have tried to defend their actions, by pointing out it isn’t true they omitted the word Easter, but what difference does that make? If we can’t condemn an organisation for omitting a word they haven’t omitted, we‘ve lost the true meaning of Christianity.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

https://easter.cadbury.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

"In the last 10 years I have been one of the few British politicians to speak up on the benefits of immigration," he said.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 72741.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Boris Johnson.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

Notwithstanding that
In the days before the 23 June referendum, the former London mayor claimed remaining in the EU was the “riskier” option because of the supposed pressures on housing and the NHS from European migrants.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
User avatar
refitman
Site Admin
Posts: 7772
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 7:22 pm
Location: Wombwell, United Kingdom

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by refitman »

tinyclanger2 wrote:
"In the last 10 years I have been one of the few British politicians to speak up on the benefits of immigration," he said.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 72741.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Boris Johnson.
Johnson, never knowingly not a massive bellend.
HindleA
Prime Minister
Posts: 27400
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 12:40 am
Location: Three quarters way to hell

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by HindleA »

So I am led to believe.
HindleA
Prime Minister
Posts: 27400
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 12:40 am
Location: Three quarters way to hell

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by HindleA »

FWIW I think Steel's article falls flat.Maybe just my experience but the hot cross bun thing was an avenue for discussions/explanations of significance etc.
howsillyofme1
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3374
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 11:34 am

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Morning

It is truly one of the strange things that certain people (such as Miliband and Corbyn) are considered never to be possible PM but we accept Cameron and May as being suitable (and who ever else the Tories will come up with in the future)!

Personally, I have seldom seen two more incompetent and loathsome individuals as those last two - perhaps that is now the criteria we should use for a future Labour leader!

Remember also, without the Gove defection and his lack of courage Johnson would have strolled into Number 10!
HindleA
Prime Minister
Posts: 27400
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 12:40 am
Location: Three quarters way to hell

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by HindleA »

Mum still has hopes of me becoming a vicar,as a non believer this may be a problem.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15686
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

howsillyofme1 wrote:Morning

It is truly one of the strange things that certain people (such as Miliband and Corbyn) are considered never to be possible PM but we accept Cameron and May as being suitable (and who ever else the Tories will come up with in the future)!

Personally, I have seldom seen two more incompetent and loathsome individuals as those last two - perhaps that is now the criteria we should use for a future Labour leader!

Remember also, without the Gove defection and his lack of courage Johnson would have strolled into Number 10!
An interesting thing with May, IMO, is that being seen as a contrast to Cameron/Osborne isn't doing her much harm.

I've heard "she is clearing up the posh boys mess" used as a reason for giving her a chance.......
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

I see that Leave.EU have noticed the government giving ground on Freedom of Movement.

Is UKIP in any sort of shape to get their voters back from May?
User avatar
Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Willow904 »

Morning.

I see we're still on why the Tories won the 2015 election. I thought we'd have got our heads around that by now.

1) Regarding the economy, middle earners were shielded from austerity and house prices went up, keeping a lot of 2010 Tory voters on board.

2) The Libdems. The Tories won a lot of seats from the Libdems. 5 years of Clegg siding with the Tories and attacking Labour led to a collapse of the tactical vote plus Libdems got used to arguing Tory/Coalition policies as superior to Labour and hence, in an apparent two horse race, broke heavily for the Tories.

3) Ukip. Labour not offering an EU referendum probably lost some otherwise Labour votes to Ukip, but rather more significantly Cameron offering one bought a lot of Ukip votes for the Tories, at the ultimate cost of our membership of the EU.

4) Scotland.

5) Tory/Labour marginals. This one was crucial, this is where the negative press and Ed Miliband's image may actually have made a difference. Although whether it would have made a difference without all the extra spending, extra bussed in canvassers and letters from David Cameron on parliament stationary etc, who knows?

So there you have it. The Tories won because of house prices, alleged fraudulent spending, a biased press and a willingness to jeopardise the well being of the entire nation just to buy some votes. And Libdem voters turning out to be the yellow Tories we always thought they were. We're a pretty right wing country, that's the reality, that's what we're up against. I have never been against Tony Blair for recognising that and using it to win. Where Blair failed was in failing to change the rules of the game when he had the chance. Electoral and democratic reform didn't go far enough. Financial sector had too much free rein. Redistribution of wealth was too easy for the following Coalition government to reverse etc. Ed Miliband would have done more, I feel, in government, but admittedly lacked Blair's ability to get there. We clearly need a leader that combines both. We clearly don't have one. But then neither does anyone else. The high poll figures for the Tories are for Brexit not May. She's eminently beatable. And if a lightweight like Cameron can beat Gordon Brown, then there is surely someone in Labour capable of beating May. I just don't think it's Corbyn. Sorry.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Good summary.

The illegal spending probably didn't shift many seats. As you say the marginals they absolutely killed us.

This was the parliament with chickens coming home to roost.Labour sadly blew it. I say Labour rather than Corbyn because it's a wider failure. The other candidates wouldn't have responded to Brexit much better.

What needed to happen was somebody able to take strong lead for soft Brexit. Owen Smith might have, but he might not.
Temulkar
Secretary of State
Posts: 1343
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:24 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Temulkar »

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

I see we're still on why the Tories won the 2015 election. I thought we'd have got our heads around that by now.

1) Regarding the economy, middle earners were shielded from austerity and house prices went up, keeping a lot of 2010 Tory voters on board.

2) The Libdems. The Tories won a lot of seats from the Libdems. 5 years of Clegg siding with the Tories and attacking Labour led to a collapse of the tactical vote plus Libdems got used to arguing Tory/Coalition policies as superior to Labour and hence, in an apparent two horse race, broke heavily for the Tories.

3) Ukip. Labour not offering an EU referendum probably lost some otherwise Labour votes to Ukip, but rather more significantly Cameron offering one bought a lot of Ukip votes for the Tories, at the ultimate cost of our membership of the EU.

4) Scotland.

5) Tory/Labour marginals. This one was crucial, this is where the negative press and Ed Miliband's image may actually have made a difference. Although whether it would have made a difference without all the extra spending, extra bussed in canvassers and letters from David Cameron on parliament stationary etc, who knows?

So there you have it. The Tories won because of house prices, alleged fraudulent spending, a biased press and a willingness to jeopardise the well being of the entire nation just to buy some votes. And Libdem voters turning out to be the yellow Tories we always thought they were. We're a pretty right wing country, that's the reality, that's what we're up against. I have never been against Tony Blair for recognising that and using it to win. Where Blair failed was in failing to change the rules of the game when he had the chance. Electoral and democratic reform didn't go far enough. Financial sector had too much free rein. Redistribution of wealth was too easy for the following Coalition government to reverse etc. Ed Miliband would have done more, I feel, in government, but admittedly lacked Blair's ability to get there. We clearly need a leader that combines both. We clearly don't have one. But then neither does anyone else. The high poll figures for the Tories are for Brexit not May. She's eminently beatable. And if a lightweight like Cameron can beat Gordon Brown, then there is surely someone in Labour capable of beating May. I just don't think it's Corbyn. Sorry.
I think, personally, that this focus on the leader - whoever they are - is part of the problem. I think that it is the movement that will beat the Tories. Half a million members behind a united party with the policies already being espoused would be hammering May in the polls.

With regard to Milliband - who I liked - he was undermined by the very same cabal of people who are the most vociferous about Corbyn. They are pretty much the same people who wanted Milliband senior to do for Brown before 2010. They have basically undermined every leader that labour has had since Blair.

Progress are now as destructive a force in Labour as Militant ever were, and they have probably done for the party with the ongoing civil war.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

SpinningHugo wrote:25 years since 92 election.

I remember it all too well. I'd spent weeks campaigning for Labour. We won in our seat,from the Tories, but the election night party... Oh dear. Have never felt sadder. Got drunk and behaved inappropriately. I wrote to Kinnock afterwards, and I still have his reply.

The Tories had put up billboards with "You Can't Trust Labour". A mate and me went round in his old escort painting over "ts" so that they read "You Can Trust Labour"

It was a sunny day, and I was doing one of the shifts at the polling station. The Tories had bussed a load of dementia patients over, and they were dazed and confused, didn't know where they were, let alone how to vote. It was really grim.

5 more years we had to put up with. FFS.
I find it worse now because at least in 1992 Labour ran strongly on middle class tax rises that raised significant extra money.

Lately it's been (welcome) small amounts that won't be paid by people like us.
howsillyofme1
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3374
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 11:34 am

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Good summary Willow

Don't apologise for not thinking Corbyn can win. That is your view and I fully respect it

What rails is the lazy attacking of Corbyn for ever thing that in the news (and I am not accusing you of that to be clear)

Tem has a point though....it is the same people who undermined Miliband who are doing the same with Cornyn and who will do the same to anyone who the members elect!
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

It's far more strongly opposed to Corbyn than were opposed to Miliband or Brown.

80% of MPs for a start. Including Miliband. And Brown too.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15686
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:It's far more strongly opposed to Corbyn than were opposed to Miliband or Brown.

80% of MPs for a start. Including Miliband. And Brown too.
Yes, but he - along with some (but not enough) others - offers *constructive* criticism of Corbyn(ism)

Instead, the PLP has far too many brainless arses like Dugher and Austin (and if anything I dislike them even more than the Progress ideologues)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

As I always say, the Tories haven't started with Corbyn.

I watched an old CBS report on the 80s left. Egregious bias but still enough seriously stupid stuff going on. People paid to sit down going through library books objecting to black horses and council employees being harassed for not having African food every day. People setting anti-capitalist maths.

It had achievements on equalities and pioneered multiculturalism, but it isn't hard to find utterly stupid stuff.

Corbyn is going to be tied to this and Labour will be flayed alive.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:It's far more strongly opposed to Corbyn than were opposed to Miliband or Brown.

80% of MPs for a start. Including Miliband. And Brown too.
Yes, but he - along with some (but not enough) others - offers *constructive* criticism of Corbyn(ism)

Instead, the PLP has far too many brainless arses like Dugher and Austin (and if anything I dislike them even more than the Progress ideologues)
Vast majority, it's about policy more than anything. Someone like Streeting is a good example. There's silly stuff about McDonald's but also policy too.
User avatar
Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Willow904 »

Temulkar wrote:
I think, personally, that this focus on the leader - whoever they are - is part of the problem. I think that it is the movement that will beat the Tories. Half a million members behind a united party with the policies already being espoused would be hammering May in the polls.

With regard to Milliband - who I liked - he was undermined by the very same cabal of people who are the most vociferous about Corbyn. They are pretty much the same people who wanted Milliband senior to do for Brown before 2010. They have basically undermined every leader that labour has had since Blair.

Progress are now as destructive a force in Labour as Militant ever were, and they have probably done for the party with the ongoing civil war.
Hi. If you actually look at my summary you will see that only point 5 deals with the character of the leader specifically and I'm not sure how big a difference it made. Point 2 particularly deals with how a lot of voters, Libdems especially were actually sold on Tory right wing policies by Clegg endorsing them. By 2015 they were so convinced by Tory austerity they voted for more of it.
What I said about Blair was that he, and the people around him, were better at the electoral stuff than the transformative stuff. Presentation rather than substance. Ed was more the other way round. The substance was good, people responded to his policies but he and his team were outgunned in terms of electoral campaigning.

Corbyn is clearly popular with some Labour supporters because they like his individual views and principles and what he stands for. But this isn't the same as party policy or what the party as a whole stands for, it isn't the same as imbuing the party with a character whether more superficial, like Blair, or more of substance like Miliband at his best. And the electoral machine under current leadership shows no sign of improving on Miliband's weaknesses.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15686
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

There is a lot to worry about if Corbyn is still there come a 2020 GE, but i am genuinely sceptical that reheated 80s "loony left" stuff will resonate that much (save for the already convinced) Tories have largely ignored that and pushed the "friend of IRA/Hezbollah" memes much more forcefully for a reason - they aren't totally stupid (though we might wish otherwise)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Of course the irony is that lots of the London municipal left went uber-Blairite. But don't think Corbyn will get credit for not having put distance between himself and that era.

And don't think that era is simply "ahead of its time", as some people think now.
gilsey
Prime Minister
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 10:51 am

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by gilsey »

Willow904 wrote: 5) Tory/Labour marginals. This one was crucial, this is where the negative press and Ed Miliband's image may actually have made a difference. Although whether it would have made a difference without all the extra spending, extra bussed in canvassers and letters from David Cameron on parliament stationary etc, who knows?
This. Their targeting was spot on, as was Trump's.
I don't want to praise them at all, but it is clever stuff.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:There is a lot to worry about if Corbyn is still there come a 2020 GE, but i am genuinely sceptical that reheated 80s "loony left" stuff will resonate that much (save for the already convinced) Tories have largely ignored that and pushed the "friend of IRA/Hezbollah" memes much more forcefully for a reason - they aren't totally stupid (though we might wish otherwise)
I don't know. It's pretty striking stuff when you see it now, and allowing for the bias, it looks awful. Check the CBS report out, from 1987, can't do a link from here. It ticks a few Tory wedge boxes.

He doesn't really have anything to set against it, in terms of stepping up to power either.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15686
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:It's far more strongly opposed to Corbyn than were opposed to Miliband or Brown.

80% of MPs for a start. Including Miliband. And Brown too.
Yes, but he - along with some (but not enough) others - offers *constructive* criticism of Corbyn(ism)

Instead, the PLP has far too many brainless arses like Dugher and Austin (and if anything I dislike them even more than the Progress ideologues)
Vast majority, it's about policy more than anything. Someone like Streeting is a good example. There's silly stuff about McDonald's but also policy too.
I don't think Streeting is that bad either all told - but the McDonalds nonsense *is* what many people associate with him now.

(of course, the fact previous tweets of his were soon uncovered which PRAISED falafel bars didn't really help either :) )
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Obviously it's how they portray him anyway, but I'd be surprised if there weren't plenty there to throw out in the campaign and knock a good Labour policy off the top of the news.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Austin did strangely well in his seat in 2015. It helps him that it's got lots of Kippers but even so. Good constituency MP or something?
gilsey
Prime Minister
Posts: 6188
Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 10:51 am

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by gilsey »

Temulkar wrote:
I think, personally, that this focus on the leader - whoever they are - is part of the problem. I think that it is the movement that will beat the Tories.
It's a big part of the problem imo, I've never thought I couldn't vote for Labour because of JC.
Oppose the govt, vote for the opposition, as I've said before.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Interesting to see the other day that consumer confidence in Scotland is very low compared with the UK. And GDP fell in the last quarter by 0.2%

In one sense, that's a more rational reaction to Brexit in Scotland. But have they (in part) talked their way into a recession?
User avatar
Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Willow904 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Interesting to see the other day that consumer confidence in Scotland is very low compared with the UK. And GDP fell in the last quarter by 0.2%

In one sense, that's a more rational reaction to Brexit in Scotland. But have they (in part) talked their way into a recession?
Fuel inflation impacting outlying regions more quickly? I think the whole of the UK could be facing recession when stagnating wages collide with inflation and debt limits.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
User avatar
Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Willow904 »

gilsey wrote:
Willow904 wrote: 5) Tory/Labour marginals. This one was crucial, this is where the negative press and Ed Miliband's image may actually have made a difference. Although whether it would have made a difference without all the extra spending, extra bussed in canvassers and letters from David Cameron on parliament stationary etc, who knows?
This. Their targeting was spot on, as was Trump's.
I don't want to praise them at all, but it is clever stuff.
Does the strategy depend on surprise, though? Now we know more about how they did it, I'm hoping it will be less of an uneven fight in future.
Although having said that, boundary changes will provide the Tory advantage next time, unfortunately.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

I think Boris Johnson is a big weak spot. I haven't seen any sense of Labour targeting him.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

What's the strategy for Scotland this time? Why can't May pull the same trick as last time? What work has been done to neutralise?
User avatar
TechnicalEphemera
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

I think Willow nailed it, that Tory majority by the way is down to a very few thousand votes. The busses probably swung a chunk of it.

The one lesson you can take is that the candidate is the campaign. The idea you can win with a candidate people don't see as a credible PM was largely blown away. Cameron dragged the Tory vote up, sadly Ed dragged the labour vote down.

Which neatly brings us to 92, where Kinnock had similar problems against Major. It was a constant refrain on the doorsteps along with I can't afford to take a chance as I am just hanging on. I have no idea why Major was seen as competent, but he was.
Release the Guardvarks.
User avatar
TechnicalEphemera
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:What's the strategy for Scotland this time? Why can't May pull the same trick as last time? What work has been done to neutralise?
Realistically the strategy for Scotland this time is lose badly, unless you go full nuclear and float off Scottish Labour as a separate party (which probably won't help much).

There is a chance the SNP chickens will come home to roost, but it feels more like 2025 ( inside or outside of the UK).
Release the Guardvarks.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15686
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

In both cases, of course, the media played a major part in those perceptions.

Corbyn has shown that just ignoring it isn't going to work, but the Blairite policy of full-on appeasement is ultimately a self-defeating dead end also.

The left (in other words, this applies more widely than just "Labour") needs a strategy both to neutralise an entrenchedly hostile MSM but also to devise ways of BYPASSING it effectively. One small thing that we could start with - a campaign against those godawful late night "tomorrow's papers" slots on BBC News/Sky??
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
User avatar
tinyclanger2
Prime Minister
Posts: 9711
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 9:18 pm

Re: Saturday 8th and Sunday 9th April 2017

Post by tinyclanger2 »

If enough people want to poke the political class in the eye, isn't now a great time to be looking at a cross-party single issue campaign on PR? Fuelled by stories that actually resonate with people.
There aren’t many issues which bring together UKIP, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru, or the Liberal Democrats and the SNP. But there is one which does - the need for a fair voting system.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
Locked