Wednesday 19th April 2017

[tinyclanger2]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The elections will be the test of to what degree pollsters have corrected the problems of 2015. The BPC inquiry into what went wrong at the general election concluded that the main problem was with sampling. Polling companies have reacted to that in different ways – some have adopted new quotas or weighting mechanisms to try and ensure their polls have the correct proportions of non-graduates and people who are have little interest in politics; others have instead concentrated on turnout models, moving their turnout models to ones based upon respondents’ age and social class, rather than just how likely they say there are to vote; some have switched from telephone to online (and some have done all of these!). The election will be a chance to see whether these changes have been enough to stop the historical overestimation of Labour support, or indeed whether they’ve gone too far and resulted in a pro-Tory skew. I’ll look in more detail at the different methodological approaches during the campaign.

[HindleA]

O'Reilly gets the boot.


https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/19/b ... tions.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[tinybgoat]

I have visions of a clog wearing army takeover of Cadbury's.

I've similar visions restoration of old recipe for crème eggs

'Brexit' was never necessary to implement the restoration

But will crème eggs survive Brexit, if EU changes definition of chocolate to exclude vegelate?

http://www.standard.net/Business/2016/1 ... legg-warns" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (old link)

[TechnicalEphemera]

Impressive that BBC news found only positive voices for May and negative for Corbyn, in Bolton.

It is an old trick, and I am not sure why they are allowed to do it. Asking random people opinions of things are by definition not representative of anything, yet somehow they use it as though they were.

[TechnicalEphemera]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The elections will be the test of to what degree pollsters have corrected the problems of 2015. The BPC inquiry into what went wrong at the general election concluded that the main problem was with sampling. Polling companies have reacted to that in different ways – some have adopted new quotas or weighting mechanisms to try and ensure their polls have the correct proportions of non-graduates and people who are have little interest in politics; others have instead concentrated on turnout models, moving their turnout models to ones based upon respondents’ age and social class, rather than just how likely they say there are to vote; some have switched from telephone to online (and some have done all of these!). The election will be a chance to see whether these changes have been enough to stop the historical overestimation of Labour support, or indeed whether they’ve gone too far and resulted in a pro-Tory skew. I’ll look in more detail at the different methodological approaches during the campaign.

I do not see how any polling that isn't based on genuinely random sampling of the electorate can be representative. The problem is thanks to PPI who answers a phone these days, if you visit in person how do you time visits to catch the working population instead of just the unemployed or retired.

Accurate polling for elections is probably still achievable but time consuming and expensive. What we seem to have is cheap polling mechanisms with voodoo science behind them to compensate for their obvious failings.

That said the US polling was in the ballpark, the referendum was always a lost cause because of a lack of turnout model.

[SpinningHugo]

Rob Marris quits

[HindleA]

https://www.tes.com/news/further-educat ... pprentices" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Government blocks move to give child benefit to apprentices

[HindleA]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gen ... 91451.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


There are 13 million disabled people in Britain. If we don't vote together, the DWP will tighten the screws on us

[HindleA]

Kudos to the v-signing car driver in Bolton giving opinion on May as she left.

[TechnicalEphemera]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gen ... 91451.html


There are 13 million disabled people in Britain. If we don't vote together, the DWP will tighten the screws on us

13 million is a Trump sized bigly voting bloc, about 20% of the UK population.

[SpinningHugo]

Yougov

Con 48 (+4)
Lab 24 (+1)
LD 12%
Ukip 7% (-3)
Other 9%

April 18-19

This will narrow and is, literally, unbelievable.

[TechnicalEphemera]

If you haven't seen this it is remarkably funny given the worrying subject.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mada-gaffe

[TechnicalEphemera]

Yougov

Con 48 (+4)
Lab 24 (+1)
LD 12%
Ukip 7% (-3)
Other 9%

April 18-19

This will narrow and is, literally, unbelievable.

Why and Why? Miliband got 30% of the vote, Corbyn is less popular so 24 points isn't unreasonable.

May has Cameron's base figure plus some Labour switchers plus a huge band of kippers.

I am tempted to suggest it simply is what it is, based on actual history entirely plausible.

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

[SpinningHugo]

Yougov

Con 48 (+4)
Lab 24 (+1)
LD 12%
Ukip 7% (-3)
Other 9%

April 18-19

This will narrow and is, literally, unbelievable.

Why and Why? Miliband got 30% of the vote, Corbyn is less popular so 24 points isn't unreasonable.

May has Cameron's base figure plus some Labour switchers plus a huge band of kippers.

I am tempted to suggest it simply is what it is, based on actual history entirely plausible.

I suppose so. Still shocking.

i wonder if there is a tipping point?

[SpinningHugo]

I am too young to remember WIlson's October election, but do snap elections all feel this weird? It is almost as if it isn;t a real contest.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 91911.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/ju ... tte-cooper" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour should have a good housing policy, far better than the Tories. Make that the centrepiece and run with it.