Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017

Post by **refitman** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 8:41 am

Morning all.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 8:45 am

Kenton East (Harrow) result

CON: 52.3% (+19.5)
LAB: 43.8% (+1.3)
LDEM: 2.1% (+2.1)
UKIP: 1.8% (-9.6)
*ILG: 0.0% (-13.4)

ILG: Ind Lab Group

This seems like a very low key GE campaign to me.

Black eyed susans are a bargain in Lidl at the minute. I tried them from seed this year but had no joy.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 8:49 am

A couple of Blairite things, a minority position I know

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comme ... 20251.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://capx.co/where-does-corbyn-leave ... ft-voters/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **refitman** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:24 am

SpinningHugo wrote:A couple of Blairite things, a minority position I know

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comme ... 20251.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://capx.co/where-does-corbyn-leave ... ft-voters/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lovely bit of character assassination in the CapX piece.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:33 am

Good morfternoon.

Further to RogerOThornhill's post last night, I trawled around a bit and found this:

EU is ahead of Britain in trade deals, claim American officials in what would be a dramatic U-turn for Trump

If the EU becomes a bigger trade priority for the Trump administration than Britain, it will be an embarrassing blow to the diplomacy skills of Boris Johnson. (Mail - my emphasis)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... cials.html

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:07 am

Fair to say the Harrow result was not entirely down to national factors (a look at the recent history of the council may provide some clues)

Of course, the GE campaign hasn't really started yet whatever the formal position - and probably won't until after the local polls.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:09 am

Put Out More Flags -

Sir Eric Pickles to quit as MP (BBC News website)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39677950

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:10 am

Graham Allen, from the Labour benches, has also just announced their retirement. One of the more thoughtful MPs out there.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:53 am

PorFavor wrote:Put Out More Flags -

Sir Eric Pickles to quit as MP (BBC News website)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39677950

I noticed yesterday that Gerald Howarth was standing down too - really no great loss. Nasty individual.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:56 am

Morning all.

The pic in this is amazing - so much that you just think "WTF is she on?"

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:28 am

To be fair,flying golf ball missiles are a big problem here.

Post by **refitman** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:34 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

The pic in this is amazing - so much that you just think "WTF is she on?"

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I want to see a classroom set up for all the sciences, all the performing arts, all the humanities plus other subjects. There would be no space for the children.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:35 am

I'd always been against capital punishment. But, now it's been pointed out that hanging isn't the only method available, I'm having a serious rethink. The rumbling of tumbrils has a certain "olde worlde" appeal . . .

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:42 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/leah-br ... K+Politics" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TV Debates Without The Prime Minister Aren’t A Gift, They’re A Test For The Left

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:46 am

That depends to an extent on whether May is actually "empty chaired" or not. If she is, the focus will be on her to a significant extent regardless.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:13 pm

Just popping in quickly. Semi-detatched from whole election, for the sake of my health.

Just thought some people might be interested in a thread on the French Elections from another board I hang out on. There is one poster there, Kev7, who is absolutely outstanding on the subject. Another poster says it's the best in the English Language anywhere, and that can't be far wrong.

This is the last page, work back as far as you like, you won't regret it. Start with that brilliant post there about corruption.

http://www.wsc.co.uk/forum-index/28-wor ... 40#1312040" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hope everyone is well.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:19 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

The pic in this is amazing - so much that you just think "WTF is she on?"

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"...some good ideas in there but she can f*** right off making me work until I'm 70 and snuffing my candle...that's a lot of sh**. I don't care about the bus pass. I can still drive okay. I give it 5 out of 10."
- second cousin on Mum's side

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:20 pm

Thank you, Tubby Isaacs!
xx
cJA

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:21 pm

XX

to you, Citizen!

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:29 pm

(Two kiss elevation)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:29 pm

PorFavor wrote:I'd always been against capital punishment. But, now it's been pointed out that hanging isn't the only method available, I'm having a serious rethink. The rumbling of tumbrils has a certain "olde worlde" appeal . . .

May I crochet instead of knit?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:30 pm

or was it a double vote,getting confused.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:30 pm

HindleA wrote:(Two kiss elevation)

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 12:42 pm

Hi there Tubs - I understand where you are coming from regarding your feelings about this (wholly unneccessary) election.

pressureuk · Post by **pressureuk** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 1:05 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Put Out More Flags -

Sir Eric Pickles to quit as MP (BBC News website)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39677950
I noticed yesterday that Gerald Howarth was standing down too - really no great loss. Nasty individual.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10293 ... policy=826" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Indeed. He take a long walk off a short pier for all I care.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 1:29 pm

'The walks give clarity': how Wales hike helped PM decide on next step

...it was during her five-day holiday in north Wales two weeks ago that she was able to discuss the prospect with
her closest confidant, her husband Philip.

With two security guards trailing behind them, the couple took a two-and-a-half-mile hike in the hills and woods
above Dolgellau.... They walked past spring lambs frolicking in green pastures, with only the sound of nearby
rushing streams to accompany them.

And that, May said, is when she had her epiphany. “I thought about this long and hard,” she explained later,
“and came to the decision that to provide that stability and certainty for the future, this was the way to do
it – to have an election.”

I'm disgusted with this fictional story.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 1:33 pm

No hiking Switzerland this time for you, T May? Got to keep that narrative authentic, yeah? Make it somewhere in UK, right, setting the stage for your visions.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 1:44 pm

citizenJA wrote:
'The walks give clarity': how Wales hike helped PM decide on next step

...it was during her five-day holiday in north Wales two weeks ago that she was able to discuss the prospect with
her closest confidant, her husband Philip.

With two security guards trailing behind them, the couple took a two-and-a-half-mile hike in the hills and woods
above Dolgellau.... They walked past spring lambs frolicking in green pastures, with only the sound of nearby
rushing streams to accompany them.

And that, May said, is when she had her epiphany. “I thought about this long and hard,” she explained later,
“and came to the decision that to provide that stability and certainty for the future, this was the way to do
it – to have an election.”
I'm disgusted with this fictional story.

Walking around Cregennan Lakes and taking in the views of the Mawddach Estuary is absolutely charming, but it's never moved me to call a snap election, I have to say. I think her brain must be wired differently than mine.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:06 pm

Willow904 wrote:
Walking around Cregennan Lakes and taking in the views of the Mawddach Estuary is absolutely charming, but it's never moved me to call a snap election, I have to say. I think her brain must be wired differently than mine.

I've bored everyone here often enough with my love of Wales and hiking and I sincerely encourage everyone, even Tories, to take part in that activity. The fawning piece of junk article is so dismayingly bad I half wondered if the author attempted saccharine satire but I doubt it. Newly hired former Daily Mail writer.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:14 pm

I'm impressed by many comments below the line.
There's too much at stake, people.
Please, vote out Tory/UKIP government.
It won't happen unless enough people get out and vote them out.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:16 pm

Hmm, do they have many golf courses near Snowdonia?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:23 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Hi there Tubs - I understand where you are coming from regarding your feelings about this (wholly unneccessary) election.

is there a list of MPs who voted against art 50 without conditions and the election?

Lewis? Any more?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:26 pm

Well only 13 MPs voted against the election in total. Though in this case an abstention effectively equalled a no vote, so the list of them might be worth chasing up?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:50 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Hi there Tubs - I understand where you are coming from regarding your feelings about this (wholly unneccessary) election.
is there a list of MPs who voted against art 50 without conditions and the election?

Lewis? Any more?

Ann Clwyd; Paul Farrelly; Clive Lewis

I think that's it for voting against both, from Labour anyway.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 2:59 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well only 13 MPs voted against the election in total. Though in this case an abstention effectively equalled a no vote, so the list of them might be worth chasing up?

Serious question
What would have been the possible outcomes of Tory government's failure securing two-thirds of the House?
Can anyone give me some ideas, please, regardless of how likely or unlikely
I'm not trying to put anyone on the spot or make trouble
I don't know enough about the recent vote, I don't understand enough about the pressures or consequences

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 3:12 pm

citizenJA wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well only 13 MPs voted against the election in total. Though in this case an abstention effectively equalled a no vote, so the list of them might be worth chasing up?
Serious question
What would have been the possible outcomes of Tory government's failure securing two-thirds of the House?
Can anyone give me some ideas, please, regardless of how likely or unlikely
I'm not trying to put anyone on the spot or make trouble
I don't know enough about the recent vote, I don't understand enough about the pressures or consequences

They could have got someone to propose a motion of no confidence in the government and had a vote on that, which wouldn't have needed a two thirds majority to go through, but would have led to the opposition being given an opportunity to form a government with an election only called if they were unable - so full of risk for the sitting government.

Alternatively they could have legislated to reverse the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, but this would take some considerable time, having to be gain assent in the Lords etc, so is not a route to a "snap" election.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 3:50 pm

Lots of risk for the opposition parties too, failing to form a government and having to an election called following that...how much more control would that hand Tory government?

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 4:13 pm

Whatever you think of Corbyn, he has fought two pretty brutal leadership elections in the last two years, and has a team that knows how to campaign - if nothing else dependent upon your stance - he clearly comes alive in this situation. By contrast, May has always been a foot soldier in elections, not a leader, she didn't face any scrutiny when she was crowned, and the Tory election team from 2015 is either discredited, dismissed, or under investigation. Is she battle hardened? Is her team? They all seem to be jumping ship. Yes, I know they have Crosby, but everyone knows what he brings to the table. It didnt work in London last time, and a bile ridden racist campaign could have the opposite effect.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 4:43 pm

citizenJA wrote:Lots of risk for the opposition parties too, failing to form a government and having to an election called following that...how much more control would that hand Tory government?

It wouldn't have made any difference. For comedy value Corbyn could have offered a grand coalition with Tory remain MPs to create a soft Brexit, and basically swanned around being at least PM elect for a couple of days.

It would have made May look shabby and weak which would have been worth it.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 5:00 pm

Theresa May’s claim that she will be strengthened in the Brexit talks by a general election victory has been dismissed as nonsense by the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, who has condemned the prime minister as a political opportunist. (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... negotiator

Edited to add - he pulls no punches.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 5:13 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Lots of risk for the opposition parties too, failing to form a government and having to an election called following that...how much more control would that hand Tory government?
It wouldn't have made any difference. For comedy value Corbyn could have offered a grand coalition with Tory remain MPs to create a soft Brexit, and basically swanned around being at least PM elect for a couple of days.
It would have made May look shabby and weak which would have been worth it.

Presumably Corbyn' wouldn't have had to form a government, but it might have made for interesting politics & debates, first not backing an election, (maybe saying having set off the brexit process with a limited timescale & resources it would be better for gvt to finish it, then have an election when they screw up)
Then probably a vote of no confidence with tory MPs explaining their reasons.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 5:42 pm

tinybgoat wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Lots of risk for the opposition parties too, failing to form a government and having to an election called following that...how much more control would that hand Tory government?
It wouldn't have made any difference. For comedy value Corbyn could have offered a grand coalition with Tory remain MPs to create a soft Brexit, and basically swanned around being at least PM elect for a couple of days.
It would have made May look shabby and weak which would have been worth it.
Presumably Corbyn' wouldn't have had to form a government, but it might have made for interesting politics & debates, first not backing an election, (maybe saying having set off the brexit process with a limited timescale & resources it would be better for gvt to finish it, then have an election when they screw up)
Then probably a vote of no confidence with tory MPs explaining their reasons.

But the opportunity missed here is that not only would Labour have got to vote no confidence in May, her own side would have had to abstain. Plus she herself would have had to have moved the no confidence motion (in herself).

A shockingly bad decision. Corbyn really needs, when faced with a snap decision, to either do the opposite of his gut instinct, or wait a day and then make the call.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 6:42 pm

Good evening

And yet another tirade against Corbyn accompanied by another nonsensical idea

I assume that the proposition was some sort of 'joke' but one can never be sure amongst all the venom

Was it a good idea to support the calling of the GE?

I am not sure....I can see the short term fun in seeing the Tories look stupid but I also wonder whether an opposition turning down the chance of an election would help them either.....pretty sure not

It just shows what a rock of shit some of the coalition laws were

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 6:48 pm

The FTPA should have made a no-confidence vote mandatory for any early dissolution.

That would have least have put the onus more on May to explain herself.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 6:53 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The FTPA should have made a no-confidence vote mandatory for any early dissolution.

That would have least have put the onus more on May to explain herself.

It did, other than for the unimaginable case where it was in 2/3 of MPs interests to have an election. Labour just didn't bother to force it down that path.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 7:19 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Good evening

And yet another tirade against Corbyn accompanied by another nonsensical idea

I assume that the proposition was some sort of 'joke' but one can never be sure amongst all the venom

Was it a good idea to support the calling of the GE?

I am not sure....I can see the short term fun in seeing the Tories look stupid but I also wonder whether an opposition turning down the chance of an election would help them either.....pretty sure not

It just shows what a rock of shit some of the coalition laws were

It was an honest question, obviously there's a possibility that it might have made Labour a target for being weak etc, but seeing as article 50 has been triggered they should then been expected to stay the course, arguably the election would have been better on original date & most of all why should Labour have to take over negotiations on a schedule they didn't choose & haven't had 11 months to plan for.
Sorry if it seems stupid to you, but i was interested in reasons for Labour's decision. It's not necessarily a criticism of Corbyn, I'm not aware of it being a whipped vote, so other plp members could have acted differently (though if it was, suppose could have been interesting if they'd all defied the vote)

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 7:57 pm

I wasn't referring to your question tiny...I think it is is perfectly sensible to ask what would happen

I was referring to the one on working with the Reman Tories but I was reading at the airport and didn't read all the way through so perhaps was a bit premature in criticism

should refrain from commenting when on mobile

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 8:55 pm

http://www.timesandstar.co.uk/news/peop ... 1acbe11-ds" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Severely disabled West Cumbrian woman told to prove she’s unfit for work

I think it was Willow,asking about UC,a perusal of above gives a hint as to how it is working.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:02 pm

ComRes/S Mirror:

CON 50 (+4)
LAB 25 (=)
LD 11 (=)
UKIP 7 (-2)
SNP 4 (=)
GRN 3 (-1)

19th-20th April
N=2,074

The excitement builds.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:08 pm

CON: 45% (+7)
LAB: 26% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+4)
UKIP: 9% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-2)

(via Opinium / 19 - 20 Apr)

Truth somewhere between the two i expect. No way the Tories are on 50%