Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:18 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... t-closures" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BHS crash sets trend for a chain of closures on UK high streets

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:20 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... gland-rare" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Rare parchment manuscript of US Declaration of Independence found in England

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:22 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... orth-korea" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mike Pence in Australia says US and allies ready to tackle North Korea

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:23 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... -space-lab" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tiangong-2: China's first cargo spacecraft docks with orbiting space lab

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:25 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... t-closures

BHS crash sets trend for a chain of closures on UK high streets

Not hard to see why, traditional retail chain stores increasingly look like they have had their day. Even clothing, which you would expect to be more high street friendly seems to be suffering.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:33 pm

I think that is peak Tory, and I think both are overstated. Fieldwork on 19th-20th Lets ssee hat things look like after a week of campaigning. It really has not gone well for Theresa May. Dissapointing green scores too, but we could get squeezed by the libdem resurgence.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:38 pm

FWIW our BHS now TJHughes,personally I have an aversion to shopping unnecessarilly and would be quite happy never to buy any more clothes again,not that I ever had,luckilly others do/have done.I don't call it scruffygititis but extreme lack of vanity at least as far as appearance goes.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:44 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:CON: 45% (+7)
LAB: 26% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+4)
UKIP: 9% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-2)

(via Opinium / 19 - 20 Apr)

Truth somewhere between the two i expect. No way the Tories are on 50%

This is going to be a theme I suspect. However Labour Eoin assures me there will be a Labour majority of 100.

The interesting thing in those polls is that the Lib Dems have added 50% to their vote in one and are flatlining in the other.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:45 pm

Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:51 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... orth-korea

Mike Pence in Australia says US and allies ready to tackle North Korea

Presumably just as soon as they have worked out how to teleport battle fleets around the world in response to Donald Trump's random threatening tweets.

I was struck by this line in the article.

North Korea’s deputy UN ambassador Kim In-ryong this week said “if the US dare opt for a military action”, North Korea was “ready to react to any mode of war desired by the US”.

So we can now desire modes of war. How about one where everybody has to use water pistols?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 9:56 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.

Maybe, or maybe sampling error in their previous poll.

One interesting sanity check will arrive in the locals (not sure I remember locals before a general election before, but it must have happened). There is a reasonably established methodology for adjusting locals with the old National Equivalent Vote thingy. So if the polls are massively out there should be a clue.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:14 pm

Polling really is all over the place...

Neil Henderson‏Verified account
@hendopolis

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MAIL ON SUNDAY: Tory lead slashed in half after tax U-Turn #tomorrowspaperstoday

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 10:47 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.
Maybe, or maybe sampling error in their previous poll

I'm basing that supposition on UKIP and the LibDems effectively swapping places more than the Tory lead, tbh.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:24 pm

Any goodwill that Toby Young had (not that much) with edu tweeters is rapidly disappearing...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Toby Young‏Verified account
@toadmeister

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Replying to @FCDWhittaker @TheIFS
I dunno. Don't think most parents will be up in arms about cuts to their schools. It's an imaginary crisis.

A peerage beckons I reckon...

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:32 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Polling really is all over the place...

Neil Henderson‏Verified account
@hendopolis

Follow
More
MAIL ON SUNDAY: Tory lead slashed in half after tax U-Turn #tomorrowspaperstoday

Indeed.

Are the Tories 25 points ahead or just 10?

So tense!

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:35 pm

Well, that is a not insignificant difference. At all.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:36 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.
Maybe, or maybe sampling error in their previous poll.

One interesting sanity check will arrive in the locals (not sure I remember locals before a general election before, but it must have happened). There is a reasonably established methodology for adjusting locals with the old National Equivalent Vote thingy. So if the polls are massively out there should be a clue.

Happened in 2005 last i think.

Turned out to be a poor guide.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:37 pm

Your sarcasm might have more impact if your own chosen party had more than a percentage that could be lost in the rounding...

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:38 pm

Rare response,up your arse with knobs up,tit.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:38 pm

No, the 2005 council elections were on the same day as the GE. This will be the first general election not to coincide with locals since 1992.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:41 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Your sarcasm might have more impact if your own chosen party had more than a percentage that could be lost in the rounding...

He's not a Green, but yes that is depressing.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:43 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote: I'm basing that supposition on UKIP and the LibDems effectively swapping places more than the Tory lead, tbh.

Who knows, there seems to be a whole random set of choices being made on methodology. I would have thought herding unlikely.

Mike Smithson isn't a Corbyn fan, although I suspect people here knew that. However on the Yougov poll this caught my eye (on his twitter feed).

Mike Smithson Retweeted

2h
Tim Shipman‏ @ShippersUnbound
Most striking aspect of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is this:

Who would you trust to manage the NHS?
Theresa May 29%
Jeremy Corbyn 26%

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:49 pm

Ealing Greens won't stand against Labour in Ealing and Acton - good news for Rupa Huq.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:49 pm

Blatantly stealing Smithson again.

Survation PHONE poll in Mail on Sunday has very different picture
CON 40 (+2) LAB 29 (=) LD 11 (+1) UKIP 11 (-2)

So far from the Tory lead being slashed on tax U turn it has increased by 2 points.

Different methodology, but similar trends.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:52 pm

That is compared with the last public Survation poll, which was a while ago. The headline is based on an unpublished survey of theirs I think?

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:56 pm

Here's the data for the Survation poll quoted above:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads ... 04SWCH.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 22 Apr, 2017 11:59 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:That is compared with the last public Survation poll, which was a while ago. The headline is based on an unpublished survey of theirs I think?

So what you are telling me here is that the MoS is both clueless and dishonest.

Hot Diggity I need to wire that info straight over to the BBC so they can advise people of this fact.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 12:00 am

Its maybe a useful reminder that pollsters do quite a few surveys that don't get published, though.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 12:07 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Its maybe a useful reminder that pollsters do quite a few surveys that don't get published, though.

But surely if you baseline from an unpublished survey you need to publish it.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 12:46 am

pk1 wrote:Here's the data for the Survation poll quoted above:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads ... 04SWCH.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wow Labour ahead in 2 out of the 3 age groups. Its the grey vote that gives iit to the tories. I wonder if that triple lock pension might be safe after all, whoever wins.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 1:57 am

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... se-smokers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Smokers and obese patients face more curbs on NHS surgery

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 2:10 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... retail-bhs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Working mothers face pay and childcare challenges, reports find
Rising cost of childcare, especially in big cities such as London, means some families effectively ‘pay to work’, says IPPR

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 2:19 am

http://southendnewsnetwork.com/actualne ... ews-story/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SOUTHEND NEWS NETWORK JUST FOOLED THE S*N INTO PUBLISHING A FAKE NEWS STORY

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 2:22 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ion-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mansfield.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 2:47 am

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ofco ... -appointed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

News story
Ofcom Board Member appointed

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 5:47 am

Willow904 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
'The walks give clarity': how Wales hike helped PM decide on next step

...it was during her five-day holiday in north Wales two weeks ago that she was able to discuss the prospect with
her closest confidant, her husband Philip.

With two security guards trailing behind them, the couple took a two-and-a-half-mile hike in the hills and woods
above Dolgellau.... They walked past spring lambs frolicking in green pastures, with only the sound of nearby
rushing streams to accompany them.

And that, May said, is when she had her epiphany. “I thought about this long and hard,” she explained later,
“and came to the decision that to provide that stability and certainty for the future, this was the way to do
it – to have an election.”
I'm disgusted with this fictional story.
Walking around Cregennan Lakes and taking in the views of the Mawddach Estuary is absolutely charming, but it's never moved me to call a snap election, I have to say. I think her brain must be wired differently than mine.

It was the "spring lambs frolicking" that did it for. me.

She probably took one home to have with mint sauce. And they "nearby rushing streams" made me think she really is taking the piss.....

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 7:57 am

YouGov
Con 48% (-)
Lab 25% (+1)
LD 12% (-)
Ukip 5% (-2)

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

SNP: 44% (-3)
CON: 33% (+5)
LAB: 13% (-1)
LDEM: 5% (+1)

(via Panelbase)

Chgs. w/ Jan 2017
Scottish #GE2017 Survation poll for @Sunday_Post
SNP 43.1% (50% in 2015)
Tories 27.9% (14.9%)
Labour 17.8% (24.3%)
Lib Dems 8.8% (7.5%)

The pattern is clear. Ukips are being squeezed by the Tories. Labour slipping slightly. Every poll the same. Survation the outlier on size of Tory lead (just 11) but they show the same pattern.

But Tem is right about one thing. The Green vote has been squeezed by Labour, just as Corbyn said he would. The problem is there are so few.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 8:43 am

Hi.

Just learned from Twitter that Thursday's Newsnight ran a fawning profile of May's husband for a quarter of the running time. This after a tough interview with Labour. Emily Maitlis tweeted about a possible Labour coup, but smiled after the Mr May profile. The profile was the work of Nicholas Anagram, by the way. Chris Mason of the BBC told complainers on Twitter to "grow up". All this on the same day as Robinson's tweet.

Out of control.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 9:00 am

Meanwhile Nuttall is on Marr, and Arron Banks will be on SP. The latter "on editorial grounds" according to Tory Robbie Gibb.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 10:41 am

BBC denies obsession with UKIP...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 10:50 am

Maybe a certain poster could give us their views on the obvious BBC bias rather than telling us poll results that we already know?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 11:39 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39658426" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

General election 2017: Can parties select candidates in time?

"Inevitably it has to be a somewhat shorter process than we usually use," says a leaked letter to would-be Tory candidates published by Conservative Home.

So Guido Fawkes was wrong about the Tory selection process kicking off early?

In target seats and those where MPs are standing down, local party members will get to choose from a shortlist of three candidates drawn up by the party's central office, according to Conservative Home.

Wow. The Tories have time to invite people to submit applications, draw up lists of 3 candidates and hold local party elections to choose from them, all starting last Tuesday?! While other parties scramble around in a panic. The Tories are indeed blessed with superlative organisational skills and an absolute surfeit of candidates willing to put themselves forward at the drop of a hat with no notice.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 11:45 am

The Liberal Democrats
The party selected 326 candidates last year and 70 or so before the snap election was announced.

Presumably because they had nothing better to do.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 12:02 pm

Good morfternoon.

The poor get poorer and the rich won’t admit it
David Mitchell (Guardian)

From the article, this (the final paragraph):

No ideological alternative has really caught on enough to sweep aside Thatcher’s vision of Britain, but the fact that high earnings are now a source of social shame demonstrates how tawdry and discredited it has become. Let’s bear that in mind as our current prime minister exhorts us to vote for it again.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... zed-middle

Edited to tidy up

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 12:22 pm

Willow904 wrote:
The Liberal Democrats
The party selected 326 candidates last year and 70 or so before the snap election was announced.
Presumably because they had nothing better to do.

Mostly that is 2015 candidates who had indicated they would have been willing to stand again, I presume.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 12:44 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
The Liberal Democrats
The party selected 326 candidates last year and 70 or so before the snap election was announced.
Presumably because they had nothing better to do.
Mostly that is 2015 candidates who had indicated they would have been willing to stand again, I presume.

Regardless of who they are, this article suggests they were already officially selected for the next election in 2020 well before such selections would normally take place. On the back of Brexit referendum chaos, a reasonable pre-caution. And despite Tory protestations, the Guido Fawkes article suggests they have done at least some preliminary work on selections back in February. If Labour have likewise been preparing for an early election, and Corbyn has been telling us he has the party on a campaign footing since last year, they have been very quiet on the candidate selection front.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 1:00 pm

Willow904 wrote:Regardless of who they are, this article suggests they were already officially selected for the next election in 2020 well before such selections would normally take place. On the back of Brexit referendum chaos, a reasonable pre-caution. And despite Tory protestations, the Guido Fawkes article suggests they have done at least some preliminary work on selections back in February. If Labour have likewise been preparing for an early election, and Corbyn has been telling us he has the party on a campaign footing since last year, they have been very quiet on the candidate selection front.

Hi Willow

Don't forget the proposed boundary changes! I'm not an expert on this, but our neighbouring constituency has a sitting Labour MP and was set to disappear. So what was to happen to her? Presumably she would have been a good candidate for one of the neighbouring constituencies?

Everyone seems to have forgotten about this issue.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 1:18 pm

FWIW As far as I know my London Marathon record in the pink dressing gown chainsmoking Frankie Howard impersonator (40-45) category set in 2003 still stands,will check later.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 1:19 pm

Yes, I think Labour policy was not to select until after the proposed boundary changes were passed (or, possibly, not?)

And it would be surprising if other parties hadn't taken a similar line.

Which does also point to the "selections" referred to above just being people saying they would stand in the (seemingly unlikely) event of a snap election.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 23 Apr, 2017 1:31 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Yes, I think Labour policy was not to select until after the proposed boundary changes were passed (or, possibly, not?)

And it would be surprising if other parties hadn't taken a similar line.

Which does also point to the "selections" referred to above just being people saying they would stand in the (seemingly unlikely) event of a snap election.

Which backs up my point that the Libdems have had nothing better to do than go around checking who would be willing to stand in the event of a snap election!

If Labour are only asking now, they have a little catching up to do, though obviously with considerably more MPs in place than the Libdems, they've less to do generally.

Meanwhile, I remain convinced that No 10 has been planning this "snap" election for some considerable time, which doesn't rule out potential election fraud prosecutions as a contributory factor, as they have been a potential issue for the Tories and their slim majority for some time.