Thursday 4th May 2017

[SpinningHugo]

Four Labour placards/posters counted so far in close by vicinity(no others).The zenith was '97 when it was rare not see a house with no Labour/Chesterfield flag/scarf as they got cheated out of their rightful final place.

I live in a strongly remain area, and looking at the windows, that has badly hit Labour.

You can see more anti-Brexit posters from last year than you can Labour posters.

[TechnicalEphemera]

It wasn't as good for Labour as 2012 was, but was still better than some of the instant punditry suggested.

My insta-punditry is that Lynton Crosby knows what he is doing and it looks bad. GE will be worse.

Bring back the Prince of Darkness.

Please.

Anecdote isn't evidence. My anecdote is that today three life-long Labour voters have told me they aren't voting Labour this time.

So, I think we are somewhere below base vote, even if the students turn up.

[SpinningHugo]

Rebecca Long-Bailey is a perfectly decent MP.

But you'd have to be crazy (or John McDonnell) to think she is a viable leader.

[SpinningHugo]

It wasn't as good for Labour as 2012 was, but was still better than some of the instant punditry suggested.

My insta-punditry is that Lynton Crosby knows what he is doing and it looks bad. GE will be worse.

Bring back the Prince of Darkness.

Please.

Anecdote isn't evidence. My anecdote is that today three life-long Labour voters have told me they aren't voting Labour this time.

So, I think we are somewhere below base vote, even if the students turn up.

I think that is too pessimistic for Labour as Corbyn has changed the base. So yes, he has lost lifetime Labour voters (or near lifetime for me as I voted Lib Dem in 2005) but gained others who voted Green, socialist odds and sods, or didn't vote.

The problem is that the group recruited are

1. small

and

2. young.

What is wrong with being young? They don't vote.

So, overall there is a net loss but Labour can't keep people like me and attract the average SWP placard carrier. That cannot be squared.

It wont be so bad tonight though as the vote isn't about who will be PM or run the economy. Those are the big drags for Labour.

I'd be a bit surprised though if Corbyn did as well as Miliband.

Hey ho. At least Ukips are over.

[HindleA]

It was an observation,no agenda involved,a thematic running joke concerning a single rogue Tory one that appeared in 2015 though not as yet.

Edited,date correction.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Rebecca Long-Bailey is a perfectly decent MP.

But you'd have to be crazy (or John McDonnell) to think she is a viable leader.

Yes, her performances provide ample testament to that. It is a sign of desperation that she is seen as their best option.

[TechnicalEphemera]

China is finally proving that if it looks like it can't go on forever, then it can't.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... c-failure/

When you combine this, Trumpism and Brexit, plus the continued problems of the PIGS (where I stands for Italy), things could get hugely hugely messy.

[HindleA]

https://www.hsj.co.uk/topics/quality-an ... ntID=15303" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Social care £2bn won't get NHS through winter, ministers warned


Ministers’ headline budget pledge to alleviate pressure on the NHS by handing councils an extra £2bn for social care will fail to deliver “anything like the level of resource” required, NHS leaders have warned.

[HindleA]

https://www.vox.com/new-money/2017/5/4/ ... -explained" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RIP William Baumol

[TechnicalEphemera]

As far as I can tell Labour getting roundly hammered in Warwickshire elections.

[SpinningHugo]

As far as I can tell Labour getting roundly hammered in Warwickshire elections.

Too early to tell, but the Harlow result is pretty bad.

Oh dear.

There will have to be a complete reboot.

Turn British politics off and on again. It has crashed.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Anybody care to speculate on losses? On current trends about 3000, but presumably not.

[adam]

Conservatives win West of England mayoralty - 10,000ish lead over labour in first round falls to 5000 lead to win on redistributed second preferences. (Edited to add - lead of just over 10,000 fell to win by just over 4.500)

I spoke to a former student who is now a Labour councillor in Wolvo and he said they were reasonably optimistic about winning the west mids mayor on second preferences. We shall see. The make up of candidates is broadly similar, and you can't map one area simply onto another but it's clear they would need to be very close behind in the first round to have much of a chance.

[adam]

Telegraph headline - Labour braced for heavy losses as Conservatives sweep up UKIP seats'. Ukip have lost all 30 seats they've defended so far. Why vote for oppositional UKIP when you can vote for UKIP in power?