Thursday 4th May 2017

Post by **refitman** » Thu 04 May, 2017 7:08 am

Morning all.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Thu 04 May, 2017 8:06 am

Morning, (& sorry if we've had this already)

http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/ ... ee-stooges" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Her election slogan “strong and stable” irritates in part because she repeats it so often that it suggests she’s forgotten the entire rest of the English language – but mostly it’s infuriating because it’s so clearly complete and total nonsense. It was May, after all, who left the most complex diplomatic negotiations that the country has seen in decades in the hands of men like Davis, Fox and Johnson: one who’ll steer us towards disaster, one who’ll try to sell the ship, and a third who you can never quite be sure wasn’t on the iceberg’s side in the first place. Gordon Brown once promised a government of all the talents; Theresa May has given us a government of none of them.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 04 May, 2017 8:28 am

Morning all. Voted, sunny day here.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 04 May, 2017 8:38 am

StephenDolan wrote:Morning all. Voted, sunny day here.

About to. Grey here.

Probably the nature of the locality, but the signs in the windows are quite different from other recent elections. I may be in a minority of one on this board, but I'm not around here.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 04 May, 2017 8:48 am

Morning all.

A guide to local elections taking place on Thursday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39500900

Who is standing?

A total of 4,851 council seats are up for grabs across England, Wales and Scotland.

Labour are defending 1,535 seats
The Conservatives are defending 1,136 seats
The Lib Dems are defending 484 seats
The SNP are defending 438 seats
Plaid Cymru are defending 170 seats
UKIP are defending 146 seats
The Green Party are defending 34 seats

These figures are estimates because there have been boundary changes since they were last contested.

There are also 687 independent councillors, with no party allegiances, whose seats are being contested. The rest of the total is made up of residents' association councillors and parties with a handful of representatives, including Cornish separatists Mebyon Kernow, who have four councillors.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:01 am

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Worth it for the reviews.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:04 am

I thought it might be a good idea to hear how you feel each party are doing so far in their campaigns.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:20 am

StephenDolan wrote:I thought it might be a good idea to hear how you feel each party are doing so far in their campaigns.

It's a fallow year, here - so I've got absolutely no feel for the mood. I'm dependent on everyone here for any indication.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:20 am

Good morfternoon.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:29 am

StephenDolan wrote:

Worth it for the reviews.

A comedy goldmine - follow the links to the Corbyn and Farage equivalents and look at the reviews.

(For those of a nervous disposition, the Corbyn reviews are mainly quite complimentary).

...and "frequently bought together"... Farage and Trump "One of these items is dispatched sooner than the other".

Post by **adam** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:36 am

StephenDolan wrote:I thought it might be a good idea to hear how you feel each party are doing so far in their campaigns.

Locals - I live in a very very safe Labour ward (c85% last time) - we have tory/libdem/green/ukip candidates as well but I haven't heard or seen anything from them at all. The only thing I've seen other than a labour leaflet through the door are a few adverts the tories have put around town of their whole slate for today.

There are elections for the county - which is comfortably tory - and the town - which is minority labour controlled - and my impression is that the county certainly won't change but the town could easily stay as it is or go to conservative minority controlled - if local votes reflect national polling at all then this will happen.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:39 am

I like the final bits of this but worth reading it all - Here is the tale of Theresa and Abu.

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SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:46 am

Fwiiw at local level I'm in a Green/Labour marginal. The Greens are going to win.

At a GE it is a safe Labour seat.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 9:57 am

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pushing people to the brink of suicide: the reality of benefit assessments

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:02 am

Is it fair that political parties can buy wrap-around adverts in local newspapers on election days masquerading as front page stories?

This is the front page of today’s Bury Times, where residents today will vote for the first mayor of Greater Manchester. The four-page advert focuses on Theresa May, rather than the Conservative mayoral candidate, Sean Anstee, who is fighting Labour’s Andy Burnham for the job.

The Conservatives have form in this area: at the last general election the party came under criticism for buying front page adverts in newspapers in marginal seats, with one former weekly editor telling Hold The Front Page it was “inexcusable”. (Politics Live, Guardian)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:02 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05 ... k-reveals/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"documents reveal that the number of NHS patients waiting longer than 18 weeks for surgery is forecast to double in two years."

Post by **adam** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:05 am

On the question of what we have to pay on leaving the EU - Barnier was very clear yesterday what we were talking about here - it's the UK's contribution to the EU budget for 2014-20 that we have already agreed to.

It's worth adding that this is a budget that Cameron claimed as a victory for the UK when he agreed to it in 2013. Why do we have to pay money to the EU? Because Cameron's government contracted to.

When he agreed it it would be wrong to say that leaving was definitely on the cards, but the possibility of a referendum was certainly in the air. Despite this he did nothing to include in the budget negotiations any question of reconsidering our obligations in the event of leaving, so the obligations stand.

It's another part of useless Cameron's useless legacy.

You can reasonably go to the stage beyond that and say that, firstly, it's also Clegg's Liberal Democrat's fault and, secondly, that with her role as a senior minister and with cabinet collective responsibility it's also May's fault.

That might be pushing it a bit, but it is unquestionably and without any doubt at all Cameron's fault. His statement to the house on his successful negotiations is here - don't be put off by the fact that it starts by talking about the Pope.

Post by **adam** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:08 am

PorFavor wrote:
Is it fair that political parties can buy wrap-around adverts in local newspapers on election days masquerading as front page stories?

This is the front page of today’s Bury Times, where residents today will vote for the first mayor of Greater Manchester. The four-page advert focuses on Theresa May, rather than the Conservative mayoral candidate, Sean Anstee, who is fighting Labour’s Andy Burnham for the job.

The Conservatives have form in this area: at the last general election the party came under criticism for buying front page adverts in newspapers in marginal seats, with one former weekly editor telling Hold The Front Page it was “inexcusable”. (Politics Live, Guardian)

This is a particular pet hate of mine too.

You would think that the tories are going to be meticulously careful about campaign finance this time...

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:08 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Asylum limbo: the woman who can't stay in Britain, but can't leave either

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:15 am

Morning.

Labour were telling outside our polling booth this morning. Unusual to see any tellers for any elections outside a general election. Our area, alongside Bristol, is crucial for Labour turnout for the West of England metro mayor, so they're clearly going all out to get the vote out. If the polls are right, it's a three-way fight with the Libdems just ahead of Labour, but the Tories still well within reach.

It was middling busy today, similar feel to other local elections. No sunshine, dull, cloudy and quite cold. Pensioner count well down on GE 2015, no sign of "want me country back" tattooed dog walking referendum voters of last year. Maybe they decided to do a postal vote for this one

(If anyone's wondering, I know they wanted their country back because they were loudly discussing it outside the polling station as I left, so I'm not making stereotyped assumptions!).

The West of England metro mayor region roughly corresponds to the old Avon County Council region, which was both Tory and Labour run at times, whilst Bristol and Bath have both returned Libdem MPs in the past so this one, like the West Midlands one between the Tories and Labour, is wide open. Should be interesting.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:27 am

adam wrote:On the question of what we have to pay on leaving the EU - Barnier was very clear yesterday what we were talking about here - it's the UK's contribution to the EU budget for 2014-20 that we have already agreed to.

It's worth adding that this is a budget that Cameron claimed as a victory for the UK when he agreed to it in 2013. Why do we have to pay money to the EU? Because Cameron's government contracted to.

When he agreed it it would be wrong to say that leaving was definitely on the cards, but the possibility of a referendum was certainly in the air. Despite this he did nothing to include in the budget negotiations any question of reconsidering our obligations in the event of leaving, so the obligations stand.

It's another part of useless Cameron's useless legacy.

You can reasonably go to the stage beyond that and say that, firstly, it's also Clegg's Liberal Democrat's fault and, secondly, that with her role as a senior minister and with cabinet collective responsibility it's also May's fault.

That might be pushing it a bit, but it is unquestionably and without any doubt at all Cameron's fault. His statement to the house on his successful negotiations is here - don't be put off by the fact that it starts by talking about the Pope.

Morning.

Speaking of the bill...

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I'd be impressed if anyone can find any British individual more historically ignorant than Tony Parsehole.

Apart from maybe that fisherman guy in Hastings who thought the 11th century was a golden age of democracy.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 04 May, 2017 10:33 am

Quelle surprise...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05 ... g_share_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's like a particularly shite episode of Tales of the Unexpected, this. Who could have *possibly* believed that Nigel Farage was a Fascist?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 04 May, 2017 11:04 am

SpinningHugo wrote:Fwiiw at local level I'm in a Green/Labour marginal. The Greens are going to win.

At a GE it is a safe Labour seat.

I spy Oxford?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 11:42 am

Good-morning, everyone

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 04 May, 2017 11:44 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Voter registration soars among students with 55% backing Labour
Survey finds nine out of 10 students who are entitled to vote have now registered, in a potential boost for Jeremy Corbyn

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 04 May, 2017 11:46 am

Anyway, today's main "news" seems to be that a 96 year old man is going to stop doing what little he presently does later this year.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 11:51 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Anyway, today's main "news" seems to be that a 96 year old man is going to stop doing what little he presently does later this year.

In the knowlege that he can now pass on the "insulting foreigners" baton to strong and stable hands?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 1:22 pm

Anyway - why today? Why not Monday? It's not as if Prince Philip is pushed for time.

All very convenient.

Edited to tidy up

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 1:37 pm

http://m.insidehousing.co.uk/7019863.ar ... esuccess=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The government is understood to have chosen the West Midlands as the area for its regional Right to Buy pilot prior to calling the snap election.

Multiple sources have told Inside Housing that government officials had informed housing associations in the West Midlands that their region would pilot the Voluntary Right to Buy.

However, it is understood little detail was given in the early conversations about how the pilot would work in practice.

The area had been strongly rumoured to be in line for the pilot since the Autumn Statement last year, when chancellor Philip Hammond announced a regional Right to Buy pilot.

Housing minister Gavin Barwell previously said the West Midlands is a “strong contender” for the regional pilot.

The government has budgeted £25m for the Right to Buy pilot in 2017/18, with £90m next year and £250m in total through to 2021 with more than 3,000tenants expected to buy.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 04 May, 2017 1:43 pm

PorFavor wrote:Anyway - why today? Why not Monday? It's not as if Prince Philip is pushed for time.

All very convenient.

Edited to tidy up

Politics has shut up shop for the day for council elections so an ideal time to announce it. Doesn't drive anything else off the front page.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 04 May, 2017 1:45 pm

Cold & windy here. Turnout for our half-council elections last year was ~30% & I fully expect that turnout to be lower this year because it's so close to a GE.

Harsh comments on Phil the Greek. He's 96 & surely even hardened republicans don't want the Royals to work until the day they die.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 1:51 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Anyway - why today? Why not Monday? It's not as if Prince Philip is pushed for time.

All very convenient.

Edited to tidy up
Politics has shut up shop for the day for council elections so an ideal time to announce it. Doesn't drive anything else off the front page.

I know that applies to British party politics but I find it rather convenient for the Conservatives that foreign reaction to Theresa May's speech has also gone by the board. Or is that covered by the general silence, too? (Genuine question.)

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 04 May, 2017 2:03 pm

PorFavor wrote: I know that applies to British party politics but I find it rather convenient for the Conservatives that foreign reaction to Theresa May's speech has also gone by the board. Or is that covered by the general silence, too? (Genuine question.)

I actually wonder if that is the case, anything that feeds into the "perfidious Johnny Foreigner doing down our GREAT nation" narrative is grist to May's mill I suspect

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 2:43 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Obama backs Macron in last-minute intervention in French election
Former US president says centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who faces far-right Marine Le Pen in election on Sunday, appeals to hopes not fears

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 2:45 pm

Benefit cap (-February) 84% not expected to work.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 04 May, 2017 2:56 pm

Decision
CAC Outcome: NUJ & BuzzFeed UK Limited

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... uk-limited" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 3:25 pm

Guide to the elections results (timing\coverage) -

The first proper results aren’t due until about 2am. My colleague Claire Phipps will be launching a results blog at around 12am and she will be covering the results as they come in through the night. I’ll be back early in the morning and will carry on all through Friday, when the bulk of the results will come in. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Edited - brackets

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 04 May, 2017 3:27 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Fwiiw at local level I'm in a Green/Labour marginal. The Greens are going to win.

At a GE it is a safe Labour seat.
I spy Oxford?

I can't say anything.

However, I can say that Corbyn is visiting the seat today.

That tells you a lot about what Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and Fisher are trying to achieve in this election (clue: it isn't win marginals).

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 04 May, 2017 3:33 pm

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma - in Oxford or Wales, probably.

Edited to add Oxford! Idiot. (Me, that is.)

Post by **adam** » Thu 04 May, 2017 3:34 pm

Speaking generally - and not claiming any authority about this - I think you should be very slow indeed in a place like this to identify anything about somebody's off-line identity. People can choose to say what they want about themselves but you're entitled to as much anonymity as you chose (save only for really really extreme problems that obviously haven't happened here).

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 04 May, 2017 3:46 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Fwiiw at local level I'm in a Green/Labour marginal. The Greens are going to win.

At a GE it is a safe Labour seat.
I spy Oxford?

I can't say anything.

However, I can say that Corbyn is visiting the seat today.

That tells you a lot about what Corbyn, McDonnell, Milne and Fisher are trying to achieve in this election (clue: it isn't win marginals).

Unless keeping Corbyn away helps Labour win marginals, of course

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 04 May, 2017 3:52 pm

Locally the Libdems are the first out of the box with General Election campaign material. Although it's more of a recruitment drive to drum up anti-Brexit supporters to help campaign for the Libdems against the incumbent Tory, than an election campaign letter as such. If anyone else gets anything similar, I'd be interested to know.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 04 May, 2017 4:14 pm

It seems I may have misled you over the West of England metro mayor predictions earlier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-mayoral" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

5am: West of England mayoralty
This may be the first exciting result of the night, as the area of Bristol, Bath, North east Somerset and south Gloucestershire announce the result of a three-way marginal between the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. Bristol has a Labour mayor already, but the countryside areas are firmly Tory, while Bath has historically had Lib Dem tendencies. The betting odds suggest Tim Bowles, the Tory candidate, is the frontrunner, but the Lib Dems’ Stephen Williams and Labour’s Lesley Mansell are also in contention.

The Libdem was originally the favourite, of that I'm certain, so if the Tory is now favoured, that's a recent development. I'm sure I saw something recently, though, that suggested he was slightly behind. If I find it, I'll let you know, otherwise consider my above information out of date.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 04 May, 2017 4:31 pm

adam wrote:Speaking generally - and not claiming any authority about this - I think you should be very slow indeed in a place like this to identify anything about somebody's off-line identity. People can choose to say what they want about themselves but you're entitled to as much anonymity as you chose (save only for really really extreme problems that obviously haven't happened here).

No problem, I like to keep my details fairly guarded generally and have no issue with others doing the same.

There aren't really that many places in the whole country that fit the description SH gave above, though......

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 04 May, 2017 5:09 pm

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... varoufakis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Macron came to Greece’s aid during our crisis. The French left should back him
Yanis Varoufakis

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Thu 04 May, 2017 6:27 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
adam wrote:Speaking generally - and not claiming any authority about this - I think you should be very slow indeed in a place like this to identify anything about somebody's off-line identity. People can choose to say what they want about themselves but you're entitled to as much anonymity as you chose (save only for really really extreme problems that obviously haven't happened here).
No problem, I like to keep my details fairly guarded generally and have no issue with others doing the same.

There aren't really that many places in the whole country that fit the description SH gave above, though......

Also it's an area with a slug problem, reasonably close to an Aldi. Should help narrow it down.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 04 May, 2017 6:44 pm

Oh, and if it is Oxford being referred to - that county council has elections today. Might be one reason for Jez's visit?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 04 May, 2017 6:55 pm

http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/n ... n%E2%80%99" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Chilled-out Jeremy Corbyn brands himself ‘Monsieur Zen’
The Labour leader claimed that ‘I never get angry’ as swung into election action in Oxford.

As distinct from "the Clanger pointed out that 'I nearly always seethe"

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 04 May, 2017 6:58 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tories-say" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tories See May's `Genius' Attack on EU Giving Her a Boost

No doubt. On the other hand it still shafts our actual country.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 04 May, 2017 7:28 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... dmark-case" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Government faces class action on air pollution in landmark case
Exclusive: Legal challenge on behalf of asthma sufferers could see ministers pay out compensation for failure to clean up illegal levels of pollution