FlyTheNest

Morning all.

Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UKIP wipe out is good news but is tempered by the fact their philosophy is well represented in the Government!

howsillyofme1 wrote:UKIP wipe out is good news but is tempered by the fact their philosophy is well represented in the Government!

A good case can be made that Farage is the most successful modern politician.

Which is sad.

Nice sunny day (at last). All my plants are behind where they were last year because of the cold weather. How about a bit of sunshine?

Gillian Troughton, stood for Labour in Copeland, has lost her seat.

Morning.

Confirmation, I see, that I'm surrounded by bloody Tories

howsillyofme1 wrote:UKIP wipe out is good news but is tempered by the fact their philosophy is well represented in the Government!

Morning. Beautifully put here:

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One good thing about this election is that with Ukips being wiped out, the BBC won't have them on air as much. Should balance things.

If Corbyn can be replaced quickly, that should also mean a shift in the discourse in politics back towards the left.

SpinningHugo wrote:One good thing about this election is that with Ukips being wiped out, the BBC won't have them on air as much. Should balance things.

If Corbyn can be replaced quickly, that should also mean a shift in the discourse in politics back towards the left.

Based on the media since 2008, I do not share your optimism. I feel like left-wing thought has been virtually delegitimised.

Labour hold Swansea, Cardiff and Newport in what had looked like an even tougher time in Wales (edited to add - hold those amongst others, but those three came along together)

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

Confirmation, I see, that I'm surrounded by bloody Tories

There's a story within the Daily Politics feed on the graun here that suggests that they won less well than they expected to - I know that's a small consolation but still.

SpinningHugo wrote:One good thing about this election is that with Ukips being wiped out, the BBC won't have them on air as much. Should balance things.

I suspect that whilst all of the business of leaving continues to be the only political game in town they will continue to be far more dominant in the news than their electoral standing should allow.

Expected the crap Labour results.

More disturbed by the Lib Dems apparently flatlining to be honest. Not because I'm a closet fan - it just makes me fear the Tory majority and 'Hard Brexit mandate' will be even bigger next month.

adam wrote:

Willow904 wrote:Morning.

Confirmation, I see, that I'm surrounded by bloody Tories

There's a story within the Daily Politics feed on the graun here that suggests that they won less well than they expected to - I know that's a small consolation but still.

The Libdem was favourite to win back in Feb/Mar and I don't think that was unrealistic. Bristol and Bath have a long Liberal tradition and Bath was previously a Libdem stronghold. The results in 2015 reflect an unusual set of circumstances. Faced with a Coalition backlash and a choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband as PM, local Libdems (mostly of the Liberal rather than social democrat persuasion) broke heavily for the Tories. This time, however, faced with a more PR voting system, the first round mayoral vote should have flushed out the full Libdem support and to be frank it should be the Libdems who are disappointed, not the Tories. They may be wondering if the calling of a general election soured their chances, with the Maybot's "strong and stable" mantra cancelling out their local advantage. The Tories did well in a historic context, fully reflecting their lead in the national polls, imo. If they're disappointed Labour didn't collapse, they haven't been paying attention. Bristol, not a traditional Labour heartland, voted in a Labour mayor just last year even with, or possibly because of, Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. The area also voted heavily for remain. I was hopeful Labour could run it close here and their result is roughly in line with my expectations, which hopefully means that my instinct that Labour should hold onto at least two of their three Bristol seats in the GE is also on the cards. The problem is that if Labour are simply holding steady in areas like Bristol which don't favour Brexit, I fear they are facing some pretty bad results in areas which do.

Good morfternoon.

The problem for the Lib Dems is bad distribution of votes. So, the south west is a Brexit region, so they just aren't able to make the recovery there because of their strong Remain position. Easy money to be made on spread betting against them.

I think the only thing that could stop a Tory landslide now would be charges to be brought for electoral fraud and a massive scandal. Might happen. Could Labour still get lucky?

NonOxCol wrote:Expected the crap Labour results.

More disturbed by the Lib Dems apparently flatlining to be honest. Not because I'm a closet fan - it just makes me fear the Tory majority and 'Hard Brexit mandate' will be even bigger next month.

Yes, see my comment above. The Libdem results aren't promising from an anti-hard Brexit point of view, are they? They're talking up success in Wells, but have actually lost 6 seats in Somerset overall. Not promising for a South West comeback. They're losing leave voters to the Tories but not picking up any Tory remain voters, as far as I can tell. In fact, no one seems to be picking up Tory remain voters and maybe that's the real story. If the Tory remainers can't be shaken loose from their party loyalty, anti-Brexiters are basically stuffed. This is why I felt it was important for the anti-Brexit, pro-single market arguments to be made and made repetitively right from the start. Hard Brexit has come to feel inevitable and as such Tory remainers appear to be opting for a Tory hard Brexit over a Labour one.

morning all.


https://twitter.com/BBCFHewison/status/ ... 6425439232

Fergus Hewison‏
@BBCFHewison

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Northumberland council election. Last seat decided with a straw draw! Really. lib Dem win denies Conservatives majority.

Amongst some very very stiff competition, this might be the single most hateful, ignorant thing this worthless little prick has ever written:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Incidentally, having been a student in Swansea back in the 90s, I was shocked to hear predictions that Labour might lose the council there. A quick Google and I discovered that Labour has by no means been as dominant there in recent years as it was back in my day, so good to see Labour holding Swansea after all. In a rapidly changing world, it's nice to see some things never change!

An important point in assessing Labour's vote is understanding where the Ukips vote came from

https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/11/new-n ... rong.html/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It cam almost exactly equally from Tory and Labour.

So if it collapses into the Tories, that is not good.

Good-morning, everyone

Well, shit

SpinningHugo wrote:An important point in assessing Labour's vote is understanding where the Ukips vote came from

https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/11/new-n ... rong.html/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It cam almost exactly equally from Tory and Labour.

So if it collapses into the Tories, that is not good.

Which is what will happen, in part because amongst all demographics Corbyn scores particularly poorly with the traditional Labour working class. To be fair I understand why, defence, terrorism, soft on benefits and immigrsnts etc etc; but oddly it is the one sector his economics would really benefit.

SpinningHugo wrote:Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They haven't been wiped out, they've just gone underground. Not surprising given the off on leadership. Where do you think those independent gains are coming from?

The announcement of the GE
What was electorate turnout for the local elections?

In other news...

Poor pupils with same SATs as richer peers do worse in grammar schools test

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/poor-pupils-wi ... ools-test/

Poorer pupils with the same SATs score as their wealthier peers are much less likely to pass the 11-plus, according to new research by Education Datalab.

The study found that the Kent Test, the grammar school entrance exam in Kent, was a “loaded dice” against pupils on free school meals as they were not coached for the exam, unlike their better-off peers.

But grammars will be justified on the basis of them being in the manifesto and that the public wants them...until their kids don't get in, and then there'll be trouble. But only in about 5-10 years.

seeingclearly wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They haven't been wiped out, they've just gone underground. Not surprising given the off on leadership. Where do you think those independent gains are coming from?

(cJA bold)

Ah. Yes, that makes sense.
Did Tories identify themselves as 'Conservatives' in their literature? Serious question. Was it prominent at all? Wouldn't surprise me if they painted themselves a different colour for maximum confusion purposes.

RogerOThornhill wrote:In other news...

Poor pupils with same SATs as richer peers do worse in grammar schools test

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/poor-pupils-wi ... ools-test/

Poorer pupils with the same SATs score as their wealthier peers are much less likely to pass the 11-plus, according to new research by Education Datalab.

The study found that the Kent Test, the grammar school entrance exam in Kent, was a “loaded dice” against pupils on free school meals as they were not coached for the exam, unlike their better-off peers.

But grammars will be justified on the basis of them being in the manifesto and that the public wants them...until their kids don't get in, and then there'll be trouble. But only in about 5-10 years.

Of course. that is what the parents of their entitled peers bank on. And what May will bank on too.

seeingclearly wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They haven't been wiped out, they've just gone underground. Not surprising given the off on leadership. Where do you think those independent gains are coming from?

With apologies for the pedantry, in many ways they haven't gone underground, they've gone mainstream.

RogerOThornhill wrote:In other news...

Poor pupils with same SATs as richer peers do worse in grammar schools test

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/poor-pupils-wi ... ools-test/

Poorer pupils with the same SATs score as their wealthier peers are much less likely to pass the 11-plus, according to new research by Education Datalab.

The study found that the Kent Test, the grammar school entrance exam in Kent, was a “loaded dice” against pupils on free school meals as they were not coached for the exam, unlike their better-off peers.

But grammars will be justified on the basis of them being in the manifesto and that the public wants them...until their kids don't get in, and then there'll be trouble. But only in about 5-10 years.

All kinds of money for Tory government crap and anything helping regular people starved.

adam wrote:

seeingclearly wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They haven't been wiped out, they've just gone underground. Not surprising given the off on leadership. Where do you think those independent gains are coming from?

With apologies for the pedantry, in many ways they haven't gone underground, they've gone mainstream.

I'm frightened

adam wrote:

seeingclearly wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They haven't been wiped out, they've just gone underground. Not surprising given the off on leadership. Where do you think those independent gains are coming from?

With apologies for the pedantry, in many ways they haven't gone underground, they've gone mainstream.

Your comment from last night was absolutely correct. The bastards have grabbed the Tory Party.

I said at the end of yesterday's thread, why vote for oppositional UKIP when you can vote for UKIP in power? I think this is one of the problems Labour have chosen to make for themselves since the referendum.

Edit to add - something like this could have been a reply to TE but I hadn't seen his comment above before posting.

It isn't much consolation but a certain Eoin chappy is looking pretty stupid this morning. Faith based analysis has finally hit cold hard reality.

I doubt this will come as any surprise to long-time watchers of the obviously Tory front group the new Schools network.

RACHEL WOLF‏
@racheljanetwolf

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Thrilled to be the new Conservative candidate for Dulwich and West Norwood @dwnconservative

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It's not complicated, is it?

Entirely predictable from the Tory conference onwards. Not sure you could say so before that, because it was still just about possible to regard May as the "sensible" alternative after three months of utter chaos. Which is why I was so, so livid when the BBC defined the Tory conference as a pitch for the "centre ground". I think I can safely say that we were a bit closer to analysing things correctly than Laura bloody Kuenssberg and her cronies.

My ward - labour won with 87.9%. Conservative polled no votes at all.

NonOxCol wrote:

It's not complicated, is it?

Entirely predictable from the Tory conference onwards. Not sure you could say so before that, because it was still just about possible to regard May as the "sensible" alternative after three months of utter chaos. Which is why I was so, so livid when the BBC defined the Tory conference as a pitch for the "centre ground". I think I can safely say that we were a bit closer to analysing things correctly than Laura bloody Kuenssberg and her cronies.

Yep, but at the same time this was happening Labour were shouting Red Tories at the very many moderate voters horrified by what is going on. So the soft Tory vote, that could be accessed is staying put.

adam wrote:

seeingclearly wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:Ukips wiped out. That is good.

And this is still true, locals are not a good guide of national vote

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/wh ... tors-nati/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They haven't been wiped out, they've just gone underground. Not surprising given the off on leadership. Where do you think those independent gains are coming from?

With apologies for the pedantry, in many ways they haven't gone underground, they've gone mainstream.

Happy to exchange pedantries. You mean the latent tendencies within the tory party and their supporters has gone mainstream? It never wasn't there..... but these days anyone can say anything, no constraints on anything left.

(Yesterday I saw a conversation about dolls. Dolls, ffs. Apparently if you say there should be black dolls, meaning ones to represent ethic diversity, that is racist. All in the name of freedom of speech, dontcha know.) And other such stupidities. Lunatics, asylum, etc., and I am not referring to migrants.

Quick reminder:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4875502.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Life doesn't always come at you fast, it might take ten years, but my god, what a catastrophic fuckwit.

seeingclearly wrote:
Happy to exchange pedantries. You mean the latent tendencies within the tory party and their supporters has gone mainstream? It never wasn't there..... but these days anyone can say anything, no constraints on anything left.

Well yes and no. I don't disagree with you, but I meant that a lot of UKIPs extreme views - even discounting their core ideas about Europe for the moment - are just being expressed by the Conservatives.

There is an old line that one reason the far right - then mainly in their National Front iteration - disappeared at the end of the 70s was that the Conservative party gave them everything they wanted and they all joined them. Mark Steele argues angrily against the simplicity of this, saying it completely discounts a wide popular movement against the far right.

I think there is very little doubt that UKIP's vote has collapsed because (1) they've achieved their core aims and (2) their ideas are being well expressed by the Conservatives.

The trouble, which Hugo has said somewhere on here today, is that if UKIP built their vote from Conservative and Labour supporters (and others) around the country, that vote does not seem to be going back to Labour as it leaves UKIP. Labour abandoned the right thing about Europe in part at least because of a fear of turning off leave voters - but they've lost them anyway. What was the point?

seeingclearly wrote:(Yesterday I saw a conversation about dolls. Dolls, ffs. Apparently if you say there should be black dolls, meaning ones to represent ethic diversity, that is racist. All in the name of freedom of speech, dontcha know.) And other such stupidities. Lunatics, asylum, etc., and I am not referring to migrants.

There does seem to have been a huge cultural change which has led to the idea that it is offensive to accuse somebody of racism. Ed Stourton's book 'It's A PC World' is a very good read on some of the background to this (it is absolutely not the book you fear it might be from the title).

Labour lose control of Glasgow

adam wrote:

seeingclearly wrote:
Happy to exchange pedantries. You mean the latent tendencies within the tory party and their supporters has gone mainstream? It never wasn't there..... but these days anyone can say anything, no constraints on anything left.

Well yes and no. I don't disagree with you, but I meant that a lot of UKIPs extreme views - even discounting their core ideas about Europe for the moment - are just being expressed by the Conservatives.

There is an old line that one reason the far right - then mainly in their National Front iteration - disappeared at the end of the 70s was that the Conservative party gave them everything they wanted and they all joined them. Mark Steele argues angrily against the simplicity of this, saying it completely discounts a wide popular movement against the far right.

I think there is very little doubt that UKIP's vote has collapsed because (1) they've achieved their core aims and (2) their ideas are being well expressed by the Conservatives.

The trouble, which Hugo has said somewhere on here today, is that if UKIP built their vote from Conservative and Labour supporters (and others) around the country, that vote does not seem to be going back to Labour as it leaves UKIP. Labour abandoned the right thing about Europe in part at least because of a fear of turning off leave voters - but they've lost them anyway. What was the point?

seeingclearly wrote:(Yesterday I saw a conversation about dolls. Dolls, ffs. Apparently if you say there should be black dolls, meaning ones to represent ethic diversity, that is racist. All in the name of freedom of speech, dontcha know.) And other such stupidities. Lunatics, asylum, etc., and I am not referring to migrants.

There does seem to have been a huge cultural change which has led to the idea that it is offensive to accuse somebody of racism. Ed Stourton's book 'It's A PC World' is a very good read on some of the background to this (it is absolutely not the book you fear it might be from the title).

Thankfully Adam Labour is not an anti-immigration party, so no surprise UKIP voters have stayed away.

I for one am very glad of this, though it may not bring immediate electoral success.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

NonOxCol wrote:

It's not complicated, is it?

Entirely predictable from the Tory conference onwards. Not sure you could say so before that, because it was still just about possible to regard May as the "sensible" alternative after three months of utter chaos. Which is why I was so, so livid when the BBC defined the Tory conference as a pitch for the "centre ground". I think I can safely say that we were a bit closer to analysing things correctly than Laura bloody Kuenssberg and her cronies.

Yep, but at the same time this was happening Labour were shouting Red Tories at the very many moderate voters horrified by what is going on. So the soft Tory vote, that could be accessed is staying put.

You were saying....!!!

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What Piers Morgan tacitly supports, the arsehole that he is:

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conservatives have gained about 8 seats from Labour in Derbyshire so far. Labour certainly on course to lose control

The House that Gove Built.

Headteacher boards are corrupt, self-serving and secretive

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/headteacher-bo ... secretive/

And then – if all of the above wasn’t enough – we have the added ridiculousness that half the members of some democratically elected headteacher boards are neither elected NOR HEADTEACHERS.

Take the board that advises Dominic Herrington in the south east. The drop-outs since the 2014 election mean it now only has three elected members but FIVE non-elected ones, instead picked by Herrington and his advisors.

Nikki King, the former managing director of Isuzu Trucks, is one of those. She has never been a head. While over on Tim Coulson’s board in the east of England, there is someone from a legal firm with an arm that specialises in converting maintained schools into academies. He also has never been a headteacher.

And no real surprise that Tories are anti-democratic and dislike openness and transparency.

NonOxCol wrote:

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

NonOxCol wrote:

It's not complicated, is it?

Entirely predictable from the Tory conference onwards. Not sure you could say so before that, because it was still just about possible to regard May as the "sensible" alternative after three months of utter chaos. Which is why I was so, so livid when the BBC defined the Tory conference as a pitch for the "centre ground". I think I can safely say that we were a bit closer to analysing things correctly than Laura bloody Kuenssberg and her cronies.

Yep, but at the same time this was happening Labour were shouting Red Tories at the very many moderate voters horrified by what is going on. So the soft Tory vote, that could be accessed is staying put.

You were saying....!!!

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Grade A1 Cretin you have found there. This election buries the Corbynista strategy of targetting the left and non voters. Unfortunately we will do even worse at the General.

I think there's clear political water between Abi Wilkinson and Ian Dunt, but here he is saying the same thing... in a bit more detail.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/05 ... -in-charge" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I've kept quiet for the duration of the local election campaigns. Now they're done. Jeremy Corbyn must go. I know there's the argument about who will replace him - but if he says he'll go, perhaps that will open up a path for potential successors.