Saturday 6th & Sunday 7th May 2017

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:10 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

I don't think much is changing.
Highest LibDem score in a poll for some time I think. Not so massively surprising if it was taken during/after the local elections, though.
Its the pro EU Kipper vote (yes they exist) returning to the fold.

Not that a higher vote share will do them any good.

Clear now that is he Corbyn defence is to come close to matching Miliband's vote share.

Could that work?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:22 pm

https://theintercept.com/2017/05/06/pau ... uses-lies/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The biggest change between previous versions of Trumpcare and the bill that squeaked through the House is that the new AHCA allows states to waive parts of Obamacare’s rules about community-rating. This means that people with preexisting health conditions — essentially anyone who hasn’t been in perfect health their entire lives — who live in states that do this would be placed in high risk pools and likely charged far, far more for insurance, so much that it could be totally unaffordable.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:27 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... -effective" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Macron is en route to the Elysée, but may find it hard to govern
The centrist candidate’s lead appears unassailable, yet without the support of an established party it may not be enough to ensure that he can govern

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:29 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote: Most companies have vetting of employees, if they are working on critical national infrastructure or projects. It is nothing to do with limiting where you get people from, it is designed to safeguard the country. In part it exists to avoid the chumocracy which had so exposed MI5 to Philby et al.

If you remember Andy Coulson, the big scandal was that he was Cameron's right hand man but only held SC clearance, mainly because he would never pass DV.

I know the aim isn't to limit where you get people from,
I was just musing that a side effect might be that it could naturally had that effect, if it was easier to check on backgrounds etc for individuals from a more limited background (say public school, maybe grammar, Oxbridge) then there might be a tendency to recruit from them in the first place.
Probably rubbish & more realistically they've just recruited from people with similar background / social circles as themselves.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:31 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... -effective

Macron is en route to the Elysée, but may find it hard to govern
The centrist candidate’s lead appears unassailable, yet without the support of an established party it may not be enough to ensure that he can govern

Though a recent poll for the assembly elections (quite a rare event in France, actually) suggested that his hastily set up "new party" could take a big tranche of seats. And in the process even more eclipse the PS who would be reduced to minor party status (but still ahead of the FN, tiny crumb of comfort though that is)

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:38 pm

HindleA wrote:Helped that I voted twenty four times in various disguises.

You are Prince Ludwig the Indestructible and I claim my £5.

( http://blackadder.wikia.com/wiki/Prince ... structible" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:39 pm

If Labour can get 30.5% then it will be the highest achieved by the Labour Party at a General Election since 2005 and is only 4-5% off that achieved then. The heady days of 40% were last seen in 2001 (16 years ago!) and since then it has been a constant drift downward.....all Corbyn's fault?

Hardly brilliant but hardly deserving of the hyperbole where Labour is a fringe party or close to destruction!

This 31% figure may be in reach - it is not out of the bounds of possibility and seems more likely than the 20% and 100 MP that has been suggested on here recently

2017 is hardly likely to be a great moment for Labour rejoicing but circumstances aren't very normal are they with UKIP policies being promoted by the Tories in an election that seems to be focusing on Brexit

It also suggests all these howls coming from people saying the leader MUST resign or Labour will disappear into oblivion also seems an over reaction

Perhaps we should just focus on supporting the party as best we can up until June 8th and see what the result is instead of focusing on opinion polls (which have hardly been great successes in predicting things recently).

On June 9th we will then take stock and see what to do

Miliband got 30.4% of the vote, lost Scotland to the SNP by being seen as too close to the Tories but most of us didn't start shouting and blaming him - quite rightly. We left that to members of the PLP and Labour commentariat (and Hugo)

If Labour in 2017 manage to perform at the same level, or heaven forbid, slightly better then don't you think that makes some people look a bit silly?

If it is 20% as predicted by some then some us will have to hold our hands up, if it is 30+% then some others will have to do the same

The thing is the number is probably going to be between 25-35% - it is strange how so many people are confidently telling us it will be a complete and utter disaster but actually we don't know yet

If I was going to stick my neck out I would guess around 30% and the pretty much the same as in 2015 (+- 1 or 2)

The Tories gain from picking up the bulk of the UKIPü vote...by well becoming UKIP - including those that used to vote Labour

You have to admire the Tories for destroying two parties from different philosophies at 2 consecutive elections

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:04 am

SpinningHugo wrote:
Not that a higher vote share will do them any good.

Clear now that is he Corbyn defence is to come close to matching Miliband's vote share.

Could that work?

Not if May wins by a landslide. Miliband fought and lost a close election, Corbyn has to do better or close to as well (in majority not share).

It is to a large degree his fault that the situation is so advantageous to May.

In anycase all the evidence in locals and in polls suggests he will fall hugely short.

Faced with a Tory majority of 100+ anybody saying but look he got nearly as many votes as Ed will be lynched.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:13 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
Not that a higher vote share will do them any good.

Clear now that is he Corbyn defence is to come close to matching Miliband's vote share.

Could that work?
Not if May wins by a landslide. Miliband fought and lost a close election, Corbyn has to do better or close to as well (in majority not share).

It is to a large degree his fault that the situation is so advantageous to May.

In anycase all the evidence in locals and in polls suggests he will fall hugely short.

Faced with a Tory majority of 100+ anybody saying but look he got nearly as many votes as Ed will be lynched.

I don't understand this logic at all

If May wins a landslide (100+ seats which I doubt she will but we will see) due to a large drop in the Labour vote - say losing 20-30% of the 2015 voters then your argument has merit

If she does it by destroying the UKIP vote, just as Cameron did by taking the LD vote in the south then that is another matter

The Tories have become UKIP - even Matthew Parris says so in today's Times so it would be hardly unsurprising that the voters follow

The ex Labour voters who voted UKIP seem to be much more focused on Brexit, immigrants and benefits cheats (that is an exaggeration but seems to be the case whenever you hear them speak) than on the NHS and the general incompetence of the Government

Labour could only get these voters back by coming out for Hard Brexit - and this is one thing where May is correct in what she say - Labour cannot be trusted to deliver the Brexit she wants because they will be far more constructive with the EU and try to find the best solution.

I can now see that with the chance Labour may (and only may) maintain their percentage the arguments are changing and even that is catastrophic - I think that argument lacks credibility to be honest

Why would anybody be 'lynched' for saying that in a very difficult election with the most unpopular leader since time immemorial and with continued wipeout in Scotland we actually maintained our voting record

Of course, with such a shit Government Labour should have expected better but this is not a normal election by any stretch of the imagination

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:20 am

Oh and to add to that last post

If Labour do achieve their 2015 result despite the fact that the PLP has spent the last 2 years telling everyone that the leader is useless and would be an awful PM - imagine what could have been done if they had actually accepted the members' decision and backed him?

What it tells me is that no-one has any idea what the result in June could be - anything from the Tories only just improving all the way up to 150 seat majority! I don't think even the pollsters are that confident

Why then, are some so-called Labour 'supporters', even MPs, so keen to rubbish the party at this critical time - it would almost make you think they wanted the result to be as bad as possible

Perhaps waiting until the result comes in instead of continually criticising the leader may be a good idea?

Personally, I would have liked Miliband to stay due to the lack of obvious replacements and I think things could have been different now - although not completely to my liking policy wise I still think he is an impressive politician and was destroyed by the press and not helped by some of his colleagues in the SC at the time

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:48 am

This is in reply to a post that Hindle has deleted - I don't know why as it was a reasonable point but just wanted to mention that as otherwise people will think I have gone a it strange

I agree that doesn't help at all either at the moment.....both sides should stop now although the criticism of the pLP is far less widespread than the criticism of Corbyn - and far less reported. A few people on twitter is not the same as an MP on the front page of the papers

But if things go badly on June 9th then, just as Corbyn will have to, then some of the those people who are elected as representatives of the party should also take a good look at themselves

At the moment though

A Labour Government under Corbyn is much better than a Tory on under May
Candidates have been chosen for the election so there is no point shouting for deselections
There is no chance Corbyn will resign before the election
There is no way to force him out before the election

The first point is the most important, everyone who supports Labour, or purports to, should be making the case for a Labour Government with their local candidate and Corbyn as leader.

Vote Labour , or whoever else is appropriate, to keep the Tories/UKIP out

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:55 am

Bugger,too slow on the delete button.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:57 am

HindleA wrote:Bugger,too slow on the delete button.

I wouldn't have deleted it - is was a fair challenge to my point.....

Your prerogative but I just had written the whole bloody post and wasn't going to let it go to waste!

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 1:06 am

I can do questions,they are the easy part,then on reflection delete in lieu of head exploding in having to think further,thanks for response.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 3:31 am

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/pupils-face-40 ... of-london/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pupils face 40-mile commute as benefits cap pushes families out of London

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 3:54 am

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/us/p ... share&_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A Little-Noticed Target in the House Health Bill: Special Education

With all the sweeping changes the Republican bill will impose,little attention has been paid to its potential impact on education.School districts rely on Medicaid the federal health care programme for the poor to provide costly services to millions of students with disabilities across the country.For nearly 30 years Medicaid has helped school systems cover costs for special education services and equipment,from physical therapists to feeding tubes.The money is also there to provide preventative care,such as vision and hearing screenings,for other Medicaid eligible children.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 07 May, 2017 7:46 am

Meanwhile at Britain's "biggest Brexit cafe":

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/is-this ... story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Asked what she thinks are the most important issues here, she says: "Immigration. But I also believe that people who come over here to work, they want to work, whereas some of us don't.
"That's difficult because they're coming and taking over, but they're willing to do the work and the English aren't.
"We need to sort the traffic out, I know that much. It's just chaos everywhere you go."

They're coming here and taking the jobs we don't want, but anyway the traffic.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 07 May, 2017 7:51 am

As a kid, we struggled to afford a car, but I think most of the people on our road had a car. STill they can't have used them that much because we played out in the road itself (french cricket).

Today most of the front gardens on that road have been paved over and house at least 2-4 cars (Mum, Dad, any kid old enough to drive).
Suggests the traffic has got BUGGER ALL to do with anything except the fact that the nation in general has become too hifalutin to get on a bus.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 8:02 am

A Labour town councillor, but one who had voted for Brexit and was highly supportive of measures to control immigration, Gabbitas was critical of his own party’s current leadership, adding: “Labour have got no chance with Corbyn being in charge. That man wants us to go back 40 or 50 years when we were on a three-day week, had power cuts and the unions had all the strength.

“Ukip are going to hold Theresa May to account. If she promises to do what she says she is going to deliver on, then there won’t be any need. But if she does not, then Ukip is going to come into play again.”

From a Labour(?) councillor in Boston taken from the Nuttall article in the G

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 8:05 am

On taxing the rich

https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.c ... -rich/amp/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 8:21 am

Britain's whole tax system needs reform to increase I don't think it is wise for Labour in 2017 to go into this election promising tax rises for the middle income earners based?

I would prefer them to look at how tax is collected from the British population. The link between VA, income and land taxation for people needs to be reviewed

At the end the outcome required is cash to pay for services - there are a myriad of ways to organise the system that provides it

I would like to see Labour launch a review on taxation and if there is anything we can do to reform to make the system work better

One of the problems on income tax, for example, is that there are cliff edges and complexities all over the place - how can we avoid these?

In terms of a policy idea then an X% tax increase on people in the top 10% seems like something they need to do. The need also to rebut the crap that gets spoken about taxation that prevents us talking honestly about it

This tax will be called Aspiration tax, similar to Death Tax for Inheritance Tax

As this article says there has to be some candour about how we can afford to pay for things (a gap largely brought about by the austerity policies of the Tory Government, as well of course a global financial crisis almost a decade ago)

But to be fair to Labour they have admitted and been clear where a tax will have to go up - how will the Tories play it? Will they do what they did in 2015 - lie?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 8:34 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:Britain's whole tax system needs reform to increase I don't think it is wise for Labour in 2017 to go into this election promising tax rises for the middle income earners based?

I would prefer them to look at how tax is collected from the British population. The link between VA, income and land taxation for people needs to be reviewed

At the end the outcome required is cash to pay for services - there are a myriad of ways to organise the system that provides it

I would like to see Labour launch a review on taxation and if there is anything we can do to reform to make the system work better

One of the problems on income tax, for example, is that there are cliff edges and complexities all over the place - how can we avoid these?

In terms of a policy idea then an X% tax increase on people in the top 10% seems like something they need to do. The need also to rebut the crap that gets spoken about taxation that prevents us talking honestly about it

This tax will be called Aspiration tax, similar to Death Tax for Inheritance Tax

As this article says there has to be some candour about how we can afford to pay for things (a gap largely brought about by the austerity policies of the Tory Government, as well of course a global financial crisis almost a decade ago)

But to be fair to Labour they have admitted and been clear where a tax will have to go up - how will the Tories play it? Will they do what they did in 2015 - lie?

Labour are not being "clear" that is the point. This tax increase raises next to nothing. The number on over £70/80k just aren't large enough.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 8:56 am

They are clear that a tax will have to go up. The LD have committed to a 1p increase for health

What will the Tories commit to - nothing probably as they never mention tax rises - and have a habit of lying. they will say it will all be fine thanks to spending cuts and 'efficiency' savings. Mind you seeing that a number of prominent senior members of their party seem to believe there is £350 million a week to play with then perhaps we do not have to do anything else?

I would like to see how the ToryKIP play it as they are the ones with the most extreme view of Brexit and the one most likely to damage us economically - what will they say about this?

I would prefer some stronger commitments on tax reform and some more courage in raising taxation but this is unlikely to be the election to do that in the circumstances

No party is perfectly open when it comes to manifestos but I know for a fact the Tories have lied in their past two manifestos (VAT, deficit reduction amongst many others) I will give Labour the benefit of the doubt - you of course won't.

Anyway you are a Green so I assume that you are basing that decision on them having a fully costed and 'clear' manifesto?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:00 am

Fascinating on how people no longer get their news from the BBC, ITV, Guardian and so on

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/th ... nuNkQgaX5K" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/pe ... woDmq1b0nz" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think this is how Corbyn holds on.

1. They argue that getting near 30% was almost as much as Miliband got, and so not too bad (ignoring where the Ukip votes came from before going Tory)

2. A huge number of people are now living in bubbles where they get their news and opinions via facebook or websites where no disagreement is allowed. They do this because it is much more comfortable.

If you go BTL at the Graun it is dominated by people complaining that the paper is anti-Labour. It really is not, but must feel like that in the era where the Canary is considered a reliable source.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:12 am

Gosh such dislike of the Labour Party, its membership and its voters

As I said last night the Labour Party on 30.5% will be the highest vote since 2010 - a year where they had not been wiped out in Scotland! 35% was the 2005 number, again with Scotland voting heavily for Labour

I am not surprised ex Labour UKIP voters have gone for ToryKIP - seems to be not very surprising as they are the only party who are promising to deliver Brexit as these people want and who is making it into a confrontation. No other party is so despicable to do this.

A huge number of people are getting their news via newspapers and television stations owned by billionaire tax dodging oligarchs or via a national tv service that has been filled with right wingers and bullied! In fact I guess more people are exposed to this.

The Canary has had some issues but is it any less reliable than the Daily Mail - or how the BBC cover political parties (as found by Cardiff University)

I do not see the Guardian as a Labour supporting paper either....and so what is your point? I do not see you as being a Labour supporter either

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:22 am

The other problem with the Corbyn vote share argument

(Which the Times are now reporting here is Milne's strategy

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is that Corbynites are in the wrong places. So the "inspire non-voters" argument was always daft as the bulk of non-voters who could be persuaded are in safe Labour seats where the turnout is low.

But the evidence that this is Corbyn's strategy can be found in the seats he visits. So last week he was in Oxford East, a safe seat. Why? Inspire the faithful, get out the vote.

I think this might work and that even after a crushing defeat the PLP are going to have a difficult fight removing him.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:25 am

I missed an ORB poll for the Torygraph

Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc)

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:31 am

Now it looks like Labour may do a little bit better than predicted certain people move the goalposts and change the criticism

A couple of weeks ago it was low 20s now that it is getting closer to 30 then it is because they are just getting out people in already safe seats

Linking to a Tory reporting on a report in a Tory paper quoting an anonymous source and then coming on here and presenting it as a factual representation of what is happening

And you have the gall to criticise the Canary as being unreliable

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:39 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:Now it looks like Labour may do a little bit better than predicted certain people move the goalposts and change the criticism

A couple of weeks ago it was low 20s now that it is getting closer to 30 then it is because they are just getting out people in already safe seats

Linking to a Tory reporting on a report in a Tory paper quoting an anonymous source and then coming on here and presenting it as a factual representation of what is happening

And you have the gall to criticise the Canary as being unreliable

Not by me if you're referring to "certain people". I have never said Labour would get low 20s. 28% is the lowest possible I think. Tribalism and dislike of the Tories should stop the water going further.

As for whether the Times story is true, well we can watch which seats Corbyn visits over the next few weeks. How many trips to Nuneaton? I expect none.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 9:48 am

SpinningHugo wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Now it looks like Labour may do a little bit better than predicted certain people move the goalposts and change the criticism

A couple of weeks ago it was low 20s now that it is getting closer to 30 then it is because they are just getting out people in already safe seats

Linking to a Tory reporting on a report in a Tory paper quoting an anonymous source and then coming on here and presenting it as a factual representation of what is happening

And you have the gall to criticise the Canary as being unreliable

Not by me if you're referring to "certain people". I have never said Labour would get low 20s. 28% is the lowest possible I think. Tribalism and dislike of the Tories should stop the water going further.

As for whether the Times story is true, well we can watch which seats Corbyn visits over the next few weeks. How many trips to Nuneaton? I expect none.

There has been a prediction of low 20s and 100 seats on here.......

I still come back that Labour have not polled appreciable above 30% at a GE since 2005 - when they had not completely lost Scotland.

Why would he visit Nuneaton - there was a 60% ToryKIP vote in 2015 - do you really think Labour are going to be able to win back seats like that in 2017?

I am not anticipating many, if any, Labour gains from the Tories. If they manage to hold all seats from 2015 then that would be an extremely good result based on the ToryKIP tactic

I don't think many people seriously expect a Labour win on this - the expectations are for a Tory landslide and if May cannot increase her seat count appreciably then it will be seen as a bad result for her

I would hope 2017 to be the low point for Labour (mind you 2010 and 2015 may actually turn out to be lower) with Brexit to come over the next few years and the economy going to take a hit

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 07 May, 2017 10:18 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Now it looks like Labour may do a little bit better than predicted certain people move the goalposts and change the criticism

A couple of weeks ago it was low 20s now that it is getting closer to 30 then it is because they are just getting out people in already safe seats

Linking to a Tory reporting on a report in a Tory paper quoting an anonymous source and then coming on here and presenting it as a factual representation of what is happening

And you have the gall to criticise the Canary as being unreliable

Not by me if you're referring to "certain people". I have never said Labour would get low 20s. 28% is the lowest possible I think. Tribalism and dislike of the Tories should stop the water going further.

As for whether the Times story is true, well we can watch which seats Corbyn visits over the next few weeks. How many trips to Nuneaton? I expect none.

There has been a prediction of low 20s and 100 seats on here.......

I still come back that Labour have not polled appreciable above 30% at a GE since 2005 - when they had not completely lost Scotland.

Why would he visit Nuneaton - there was a 60% ToryKIP vote in 2015 - do you really think Labour are going to be able to win back seats like that in 2017?

I am not anticipating many, if any, Labour gains from the Tories. If they manage to hold all seats from 2015 then that would be an extremely good result based on the ToryKIP tactic

I don't think many people seriously expect a Labour win on this - the expectations are for a Tory landslide and if May cannot increase her seat count appreciably then it will be seen as a bad result for her

I would hope 2017 to be the low point for Labour (mind you 2010 and 2015 may actually turn out to be lower) with Brexit to come over the next few years and the economy going to take a hit

Yes, that will certainly be the narrative.

Plus, I think lots of people (me included) are very very reluctant to admit error. Social media and messageboards (the Graun, here) reflect that phenomenon, You don't get many of those who voted for Corbyn admitting error all things considered.

I think he will hold on.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 10:22 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-in ... barricades" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

People with disabilities are among the most discriminated against in Bolivia. Fed up with being ignored, a group of them march across the Andes to the seat of the government in La Paz, asking to speak to President Evo Morales. They are met with riot police, barricades, teargas and water cannon

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 10:23 am

As to the distribution of votes - are we moving to the US system where we have less and less marginals and more and more safe seats where each party builds up their votes but less and less seats change hands.....will be compounded by the potential reduction in seats coming up

FPTP has had its time...will one of the two main parties actually bite the bullet and propose something else?

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 10:32 am

Perhaps some people who voted for Corbyn don't feel they made an error - just because you don't agree with them doesn't mean you are right!

And to narrative - it will all be a narrative. If Labour do badly the narrative from you and TE will be that it is all Corbyn's fault. Some of Corbyn's supporters will say it is all the fault of the PLP

My view the narrative will probably be along the lines of this has been a crazy election which has been taken over by one argument - a continuity of the terrible referendum campaign in effect

Other things have had an impact, be it Labour disunity or leadership, or the economical situation. Wjhen a party vote really collapses like the LD did in 2015 and UKIP in 2017 then the party that gets the benefit will win. In 2017 ToryKIP will win in all likelihood - I am not sure how Labour could have got those votes - look at the comment from a Labour councillor in Boston and he is probably moderate!

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 07 May, 2017 10:32 am

SpinningHugo wrote:The other problem with the Corbyn vote share argument

(Which the Times are now reporting here is Milne's strategy

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

is that Corbynites are in the wrong places. So the "inspire non-voters" argument was always daft as the bulk of non-voters who could be persuaded are in safe Labour seats where the turnout is low.

But the evidence that this is Corbyn's strategy can be found in the seats he visits. So last week he was in Oxford East, a safe seat. Why? Inspire the faithful, get out the vote.

I think this might work and that even after a crushing defeat the PLP are going to have a difficult fight removing him.

I see no real likelihood of Corbyn choosing to step down unless and until he can get a preferred successor on the ballot. I don't think any kind of outcome in the election would change that. What is not clear to me is whether there is any kind of outcome that would change that for Len McCluskey. Safely re-elected he is now free to upset pro-Corbyn Unite members if so compelled. I don't suppose even Corbyn could cling on having lost Unite backing.

As for the vote share versus seats question, Ed Miliband improved vote share but lost seats. Therefore precedent suggests Corbyn should take responsibility based on whether or not seats are lost, rather than vote share and I think that's as it should be. Though 1987 was not hugely better than 1983, Neil Kinnock won 20 seats and survived. Given the truncated timescale, some will argue that Corbyn should be accorded more leeway, but even then I don't see how he could honestly attempt to hang on with seat losses of more than 50. If he were to try, it would be an absolute disgrace. If the seat loss is minimised to below 50 I assume he will attempt to continue and things will probably continue very much as before, with his supporters still believing him to be on the right track and achieving the best possible results in difficult circumstances and his detractors believing he is a huge liability costing Labour many votes they may otherwise have won.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 10:47 am

Willow

If Labour loses seats we need to understand why that happened.....and what we can do to remedy that

In one plausible scenario

If Labour loses seats in Brexit voting areas where the ex UKIP go Tory, augmented by an increased turnout driven by those who voted Brexit last year but haven't voted in a GE since 1997 or 2001

If those seats are lost then what would you have had Corbyn do?

Would your approach of being a vociferous Remainer and voting against A50 have helped keep those seats?

I agree that if there is a significant loss of seats then Corbyn will be under pressure and he probably will have to go - although I hope we would find someone decent to replace him. Not an Eagle or Cooper or Owen Smith!

However, to say he would be a disgrace is not particularly helpful

As I said all this speculation is interesting but until we see the data I think we should be careful in making too many assumption about what has happened

My personal opinion is that Labour will be mainly hit by being seen as soft on Brexit compared to May and it will be in those areas where Labour will be under the most pressure.

Hugo mentioned Nuneaton above - 67% voted Leave in Nuneaton. You think that is winnable for Labour?

If my prediction comes true then the only way for Labour to have won those seats would have been to negate Brexit as an argument or try to outdo May in the anti-EU rhetoric. Neither seems particularly realistic

The counter is Labour should win Remain voters from Tories in Remain areas and that could have been a way to increase numbers -could be an argument but I am a little bit skeptical that this would work

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 07 May, 2017 11:19 am

Interesting that the ukip vote seems to have collapsed back into the Tories, but the Tories don't necessarily meet the ukip test of Brexit.

http://www.ukip.org/six_key_tests_to_pr ... means_exit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The achievement of Theresa May seems to be by avoiding showing any clear objectives, she's managed to appeal to a range of groups with different and often conflicting views on Brexit.

A lot of ukip supporters (and some Tories) would probably want the hardest of Brexits, and now think May will deliver this. Part of their criteria being that no money should be paid to the EU as part of the arrangement.

Businesses seem to believe/have been told, that a 'good deal' will be achieved, allowing tariff free access to common market
- this was being talked about yesterday (in mainly right wing tabloids) as Germany had apparently recently floated the idea (again)

Some (possibly remain) voters think voting for May will be the best chance of a 'good deal', whilst ignoring the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' rubbish.

I'm basically flummoxed at why a lot of people would vote Tory at this stage.
I think if I was a previous ukip supporter I'd vote ukip, a Conservative (of opposable thumbs & non-opposable eyes) I'd vote Liberal, If concerned for business/industry I'd vote Liberal or Labour.
Maybe there's still time/opportunity for a voter shift once Manifestos are produced.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 07 May, 2017 11:32 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:Willow

If Labour loses seats we need to understand why that happened.....and what we can do to remedy that

In one plausible scenario

If Labour loses seats in Brexit voting areas where the ex UKIP go Tory, augmented by an increased turnout driven by those who voted Brexit last year but haven't voted in a GE since 1997 or 2001

If those seats are lost then what would you have had Corbyn do?

Would your approach of being a vociferous Remainer and voting against A50 have helped keep those seats?

I agree that if there is a significant loss of seats then Corbyn will be under pressure and he probably will have to go - although I hope we would find someone decent to replace him. Not an Eagle or Cooper or Owen Smith!

However, to say he would be a disgrace is not particularly helpful

As I said all this speculation is interesting but until we see the data I think we should be careful in making too many assumption about what has happened

My personal opinion is that Labour will be mainly hit by being seen as soft on Brexit compared to May and it will be in those areas where Labour will be under the most pressure.

Hugo mentioned Nuneaton above - 67% voted Leave in Nuneaton. You think that is winnable for Labour?

If my prediction comes true then the only way for Labour to have won those seats would have been to negate Brexit as an argument or try to outdo May in the anti-EU rhetoric. Neither seems particularly realistic

The counter is Labour should win Remain voters from Tories in Remain areas and that could have been a way to increase numbers -could be an argument but I am a little bit skeptical that this would work

I think it would be unacceptable for Corbyn to remain as leader if he lost more than 50 seats. Though he gives the impression that he might try to even in the face of such calamity in order to achieve his aim of getting a successor on the ballot, I like to think that ultimately he wouldn't. Do you really think it would be reasonable for him to persist despite such a huge loss (it would leave Labour with fewer MPs than '83)?

As for Theresa May winning most of the "leave" votes, that's been obvious for some time and why I've been saying from the start that Labour needed to go after the "remain" votes by being pro-single market, not least because it's in the best interests of the country. I fear it"s too late now, the Tories have been allowed to portray a hard Brexit as inevitable and as such Tory "remain" voters are opting for a Tory hard Brexit over a Labour one. I'm not saying, btw, that such a strategy would have been successful, just that it was the only real option available for an opposition which hoped to remain relevant and, furthermore, the right option in principle, even if voters can't see it right now.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 07 May, 2017 11:50 am

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -democracy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The great British Brexit robbery: how our democracy was hijacked

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 07 May, 2017 11:51 am

SpinningHugo wrote:I missed an ORB poll for the Torygraph

Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc)

Slightly odd net changes there........

Don't know if this has been mentioned above already, but the supposed LibDem 14% rating in last night's YouGov was (inadvertent) "fake news". It was actually 11%.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 11:58 am

Government breaking law in not publishing report into State pension age,as specified in legislation.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:01 pm

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liv ... 0-12993418" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tea expert who drinks 600 cups a day reveals what you're doing WRONG

Must up my game,only on my sixth at the moment.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:07 pm

The future is not orange.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ogressives" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
For all of us, the public sphere impinges on the private and personal. It could hardly be otherwise. It’s more obvious with big events – a war or an economic depression – but the stresses threatening our society create parallel if less dramatic effects. Ever since the referendum, I have been filled by a growing sense of foreboding as a series of catastrophes in the public sphere has unfolded. Britain is being recast, but not for the better. How our democracy works, the chance of there ever being a liberal, social democratic government, how we relate to our EU neighbours, the prospects for our economy and even Britain as a home for Enlightenment values, all are now in question. There has been no similar period in my adult life.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:09 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 21561.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tony Blair less popular than Jeremy Corbyn, poll finds

but then a) polls and b):

The majority of people surveyed have a favourable opinion of Theresa May

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:12 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 22346.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Nigel Farage says Theresa May is winning because she has stolen all his policies
'She is using exactly the same words and phrases that I have been using for 20 years'

At the end of the day, this is who we are.
Alienating for the likes of us, but that's where we are.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:12 pm

Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Willow

If Labour loses seats we need to understand why that happened.....and what we can do to remedy that

In one plausible scenario

If Labour loses seats in Brexit voting areas where the ex UKIP go Tory, augmented by an increased turnout driven by those who voted Brexit last year but haven't voted in a GE since 1997 or 2001

If those seats are lost then what would you have had Corbyn do?

Would your approach of being a vociferous Remainer and voting against A50 have helped keep those seats?

I agree that if there is a significant loss of seats then Corbyn will be under pressure and he probably will have to go - although I hope we would find someone decent to replace him. Not an Eagle or Cooper or Owen Smith!

However, to say he would be a disgrace is not particularly helpful

As I said all this speculation is interesting but until we see the data I think we should be careful in making too many assumption about what has happened

My personal opinion is that Labour will be mainly hit by being seen as soft on Brexit compared to May and it will be in those areas where Labour will be under the most pressure.

Hugo mentioned Nuneaton above - 67% voted Leave in Nuneaton. You think that is winnable for Labour?

If my prediction comes true then the only way for Labour to have won those seats would have been to negate Brexit as an argument or try to outdo May in the anti-EU rhetoric. Neither seems particularly realistic

The counter is Labour should win Remain voters from Tories in Remain areas and that could have been a way to increase numbers -could be an argument but I am a little bit skeptical that this would work
I think it would be unacceptable for Corbyn to remain as leader if he lost more than 50 seats. Though he gives the impression that he might try to even in the face of such calamity in order to achieve his aim of getting a successor on the ballot, I like to think that ultimately he wouldn't. Do you really think it would be reasonable for him to persist despite such a huge loss (it would leave Labour with fewer MPs than '83)?

As for Theresa May winning most of the "leave" votes, that's been obvious for some time and why I've been saying from the start that Labour needed to go after the "remain" votes by being pro-single market, not least because it's in the best interests of the country. I fear it"s too late now, the Tories have been allowed to portray a hard Brexit as inevitable and as such Tory "remain" voters are opting for a Tory hard Brexit over a Labour one. I'm not saying, btw, that such a strategy would have been successful, just that it was the only real option available for an opposition which hoped to remain relevant and, furthermore, the right option in principle, even if voters can't see it right now.

Hi

We have debated this ad finitum and don't see us changing each other on the way to manage the situation we are in now. That is t

As an electoral strategy, I am not convinced the 'Remainers' vote is as ideologically driven as the Brexiters vote is and I think it would have been a very risky strategy to use in this election - potentially more damaging than the approach taken now

Personally, I see Labour's as the most realistic approach and would not be surprised if the LD and Labour move closer together during the negotiations

We will just have to wait and see what the results say though before we can draw conclusions

If you find it unacceptable for Corbyn to remain leader, then I would also find it unacceptable for certain people to remain members of the party - including some MP and ex-ministers if the results show that they caused damage by their actions

June 9th isn't going to be an easy day for the Labour Party

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:15 pm

HindleA wrote:http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liv ... 0-12993418

Tea expert who drinks 600 cups a day reveals what you're doing WRONG

Must up my game,only on my sixth at the moment.

Only on my fourth.

Alan thing from Typhoo (whose tea I don't like, incidentally,) agrees with me on how to make tea. Apart from the fact that I live in a hard water area, and do nothing to alter the "hardness" of the water. (Can make for scummy tea if I'm not careful.)

Edited - typo

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:16 pm

Good morfternoon.

ScarletGas · Post by **ScarletGas** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:16 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Gosh such dislike of the Labour Party, its membership and its voters

As I said last night the Labour Party on 30.5% will be the highest vote since 2010 - a year where they had not been wiped out in Scotland! 35% was the 2005 number, again with Scotland voting heavily for Labour

I am not surprised ex Labour UKIP voters have gone for ToryKIP - seems to be not very surprising as they are the only party who are promising to deliver Brexit as these people want and who is making it into a confrontation. No other party is so despicable to do this.

A huge number of people are getting their news via newspapers and television stations owned by billionaire tax dodging oligarchs or via a national tv service that has been filled with right wingers and bullied! In fact I guess more people are exposed to this.

The Canary has had some issues but is it any less reliable than the Daily Mail - or how the BBC cover political parties (as found by Cardiff University)

I do not see the Guardian as a Labour supporting paper either....and so what is your point? I do not see you as being a Labour supporter either

James O'Brien (possibly the only sane person on LBC) is very good on this .

He compares Theresa May whining about foreigners from the EU interfering in the election (allegedly) whilst enthusiastically accepting the support of foreigners like Rupert Murdoch and his fellow media barons.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 07 May, 2017 12:21 pm

tinybgoat wrote:Interesting that the ukip vote seems to have collapsed back into the Tories, but the Tories don't necessarily meet the ukip test of Brexit.

http://www.ukip.org/six_key_tests_to_pr ... means_exit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The achievement of Theresa May seems to be by avoiding showing any clear objectives, she's managed to appeal to a range of groups with different and often conflicting views on Brexit.

A lot of ukip supporters (and some Tories) would probably want the hardest of Brexits, and now think May will deliver this. Part of their criteria being that no money should be paid to the EU as part of the arrangement.

Businesses seem to believe/have been told, that a 'good deal' will be achieved, allowing tariff free access to common market
- this was being talked about yesterday (in mainly right wing tabloids) as Germany had apparently recently floated the idea (again)

Some (possibly remain) voters think voting for May will be the best chance of a 'good deal', whilst ignoring the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' rubbish.

I'm basically flummoxed at why a lot of people would vote Tory at this stage.
I think if I was a previous ukip supporter I'd vote ukip, a Conservative (of opposable thumbs & non-opposable eyes) I'd vote Liberal, If concerned for business/industry I'd vote Liberal or Labour.
Maybe there's still time/opportunity for a voter shift once Manifestos are produced.

May has been appealing to the emotional level to people....they don't need, or ignore, data - in fact they will actively push against it. Te concept of 'us versus them', 'taking back control' and appeals to a past world of Empire still hit home in the UK....in Scotland we are seeing a mini NI now and people in some of the poorest wards in Glasgow voting Tory....because of the appeal to the emotional argument of unionism (just like the other side do with independence'

I don't think the appeal to Remainers touches the same emotional level to be honest.

This is well understood in the field of risk analysis where people's view of risk is massively affected if the appeal is made to the emotional level. It is why people accept draconian measures on the back of 'security' and why people think that having Trident is a good thing

My view on Brexit is the most damaging thing for the credibility of the argument was that Osborne tried to use data and got it so completely wrong that any projections for damage to the economy are just ignored now.....notice that name Osborne!

If this election was run on the normal subjects of the economy and public services I would think Labour would have a much better chance but it doesn't seem that is the case....it is Brexit and May v Corbyn