Saturday 6th & Sunday 7th May 2017

[PorFavor]

Willow

If Labour loses seats we need to understand why that happened.....and what we can do to remedy that

In one plausible scenario

If Labour loses seats in Brexit voting areas where the ex UKIP go Tory, augmented by an increased turnout driven by those who voted Brexit last year but haven't voted in a GE since 1997 or 2001

If those seats are lost then what would you have had Corbyn do?

Would your approach of being a vociferous Remainer and voting against A50 have helped keep those seats?

I agree that if there is a significant loss of seats then Corbyn will be under pressure and he probably will have to go - although I hope we would find someone decent to replace him. Not an Eagle or Cooper or Owen Smith!

However, to say he would be a disgrace is not particularly helpful

As I said all this speculation is interesting but until we see the data I think we should be careful in making too many assumption about what has happened

My personal opinion is that Labour will be mainly hit by being seen as soft on Brexit compared to May and it will be in those areas where Labour will be under the most pressure.

Hugo mentioned Nuneaton above - 67% voted Leave in Nuneaton. You think that is winnable for Labour?

If my prediction comes true then the only way for Labour to have won those seats would have been to negate Brexit as an argument or try to outdo May in the anti-EU rhetoric. Neither seems particularly realistic

The counter is Labour should win Remain voters from Tories in Remain areas and that could have been a way to increase numbers -could be an argument but I am a little bit skeptical that this would work

I think it would be unacceptable for Corbyn to remain as leader if he lost more than 50 seats. Though he gives the impression that he might try to even in the face of such calamity in order to achieve his aim of getting a successor on the ballot, I like to think that ultimately he wouldn't. Do you really think it would be reasonable for him to persist despite such a huge loss (it would leave Labour with fewer MPs than '83)?

As for Theresa May winning most of the "leave" votes, that's been obvious for some time and why I've been saying from the start that Labour needed to go after the "remain" votes by being pro-single market, not least because it's in the best interests of the country. I fear it"s too late now, the Tories have been allowed to portray a hard Brexit as inevitable and as such Tory "remain" voters are opting for a Tory hard Brexit over a Labour one. I'm not saying, btw, that such a strategy would have been successful, just that it was the only real option available for an opposition which hoped to remain relevant and, furthermore, the right option in principle, even if voters can't see it right now.

Hi

We have debated this ad finitum and don't see us changing each other on the way to manage the situation we are in now. That is t

As an electoral strategy, I am not convinced the 'Remainers' vote is as ideologically driven as the Brexiters vote is and I think it would have been a very risky strategy to use in this election - potentially more damaging than the approach taken now

Personally, I see Labour's as the most realistic approach and would not be surprised if the LD and Labour move closer together during the negotiations

We will just have to wait and see what the results say though before we can draw conclusions

If you find it unacceptable for Corbyn to remain leader, then I would also find it unacceptable for certain people to remain members of the party - including some MP and ex-ministers if the results show that they caused damage by their actions

June 9th isn't going to be an easy day for the Labour Party

Jeremy Corbyn should be pushing for some form of proportional representation in order to make any sense of a decision (if he makes it) to hang on as leader post- General Election (assuming that the results are as I expect them to be).



Edited - typo

[HindleA]

Trouble is whilst waiting for kettle to boil I make the necessary roll up (I used to pre prepare which caused the continual one after another thing)to accompany.I am using the largest drinkeable tea receptaclesI can find.One goes with the other.Have thought about concocting some sort of drip/controlled infusion device.

[howsillyofme1]

Oh, and if Labour appeal on things they are strong on and can have an emotional appeal to people - such as the NHS they are accused of playing safe and in their comfort zone by senior members of their own party

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/w ... 1f093889e4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

or giving Tories ammunition to use

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/r ... 5804ef5ae0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If she loses her Leeds constituency to the Tories then will it be Corbyn's fault?

[tinyclanger2]

Am not sure that I'm obliged to approve of Labour, given that I don't think the current democratic process (FPTP, Oxbridge Bias, Right Wing press) etc remotely works. So for me, now, the problem is not Labour but the underlying political situation in the UK.

Labour has been tarnished my whole life by my parents' generation's jaundiced view of 'the unions'. In my 30s I knew students, grown up under Thatcherism and with aspirational parents, who would not countenance a Labour government. The Labour brand is so tarnished by now, I do not see how it can work. This is not to be critical. It is to try to understand what problem it is that we are actually trying to solve. To look at it "academically" in the first instance might help us (on the 'left'/'progressives) better identify where our areas of overlap are, so we can focus on them, rather than continually slag each other off for disagreeing on specifics.

The Corbyn and Blair discussions here are (not always, but often) quite toxic. How does this help us move forward? And aren't our views about more than these two?

[pk1]

I missed an ORB poll for the Torygraph

Con 46 (+4) Lab 31 (nc) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 8 (nc)

Slightly odd net changes there........

Don't know if this has been mentioned above already, but the supposed LibDem 14% rating in last night's YouGov was (inadvertent) "fake news". It was actually 11%.

According to the yougov website, it's 10%, not 11 or 14.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/vo ... 29-2-3-ma/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The latest YouGov/Times voting intention figures sees a significant increase in voting intention for the Conservatives who are up four points to 48%. Labour meanwhile are on 29% (from 31% last week), giving the Tories a 19 point lead.

Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 10% (from 11% last week), UKIP is on 5% (from 6%) and votes for other parties remain at 8%.

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Falling real wages show the British economy is still struggling
Larry Elliott

[HindleA]

https://election2017.ifs.org.uk/article ... h-spending" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


UK public health spending grew in real terms by an average of 1.3% per year between 2009–10 and 2015–16. This is substantially below average growth of 4.1% per year between 1955–56 and 2015–16. Spending growth under the coalition government was the lowest five-year average since records began

[tinyclanger2]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 21551.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Third of people considering tactical voting at general election to block Tories' hard Brexit, poll reveals

[HindleA]

A warning:

t's all very well Van Morrison assuring me it's a wonderful night for a Moondance but this cop handing me my pants doesn't agree.

[seeingclearly]

A Labour town councillor, but one who had voted for Brexit and was highly supportive of measures to control immigration, Gabbitas was critical of his own party’s current leadership, adding: “Labour have got no chance with Corbyn being in charge. That man wants us to go back 40 or 50 years when we were on a three-day week, had power cuts and the unions had all the strength.

“Ukip are going to hold Theresa May to account. If she promises to do what she says she is going to deliver on, then there won’t be any need. But if she does not, then Ukip is going to come into play again.”

From a Labour(?) councillor in Boston taken from the Nuttall article in the G

Labour (????)

That is just one of several brexiteer comments I have seen imputing that UKIP will take a very hard line if things don't go their way. I don't know whether to laugh or cry about this. (The last time I laughed on such a statement a thirty year war ensued, so it is not an emotive statement. Much more about gut feeling. In the interests of clarity I think that we are effectively in different times. And have been for a decade. I would love to be proved wrong on this.)

Right now it is as much about protecting and preserving the best of what we have been as much as winning votes. People don't generally seem to vote for politics they vote for what they think they want. Right now a large chunk of voters are backing the wrong thing. We can see this and it is driving us mad. And looking for scapegoats on our side does not help. But assisting those who are also heading in an ever rightward march won't help either, nor will being ideologically blind. I think history will vindicate those who stood out against it. Unless we really are at the end of history as we know it, and the Kim Sung May jokes are a bit more prescient than we think. This is completely and utterly aside from who Labour have as leader. Does anyone genuinely think any one of the possibles or also rans or even rising names would do better? Or would survive the circumstances seven years of tory rule has brought us?

Time enough after the GE for questions on long term thinking. I am not sure we (UK) have enough time to turn the ship around right now. The time for that has come and gone. Unless by some miracle Labour produce a fine rabbit. Which will only happen if they stand firm. The tories are banking on it not being able to.

[pk1]

I admit to being cynical about the tax increase for those on & over 80k.

Last month, it was said to be for those on 70k

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/ju ... e-you-rich" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wonder if it was the realisation it would have hit most MPs that forced change to this months announcement...

[PorFavor]

Get your excuses in early -

Bad Brexit deal would be disaster for NHS, says Jeremy Hunt

Health secretary accuses some of 27 EU member states ‘lined up against us’ of wanting Britain to fail in negotiations

It's going to be, at best, a bad deal isn't it? Not their fault, of course.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... eremy-hunt

[seeingclearly]

For those mooting tea based transfusions. Watch out for those wily tea producing nations who are based in the regions who have just signalled no deal for at least six years after brexit. Your life sustaining drug of choice could become scarce. And unreasonably pricy.

[AnatolyKasparov]

or giving Tories ammunition to use

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/r ... 5804ef5ae0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If she loses her Leeds constituency to the Tories then will it be Corbyn's fault?

That was a genuinely disgraceful speech from Reeves and I remain surprised that more wasn't made of it at the time. Or, indeed, that she wasn't censured by the party in some way.

[SpinningHugo]

or giving Tories ammunition to use

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/r ... 5804ef5ae0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If she loses her Leeds constituency to the Tories then will it be Corbyn's fault?

That was a genuinely disgraceful speech from Reeves and I remain surprised that more wasn't made of it at the time. Or, indeed, that she wasn't censured by the party in some way.

And yet you continue to praise Burnham, who said exactly the same, in near identical words, at the same time.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/andy-burn ... ?r=US&IR=T" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Couldn't possibly be that you're influenced by the wing of the party you perceive them as coming from?

For the avoidance of doubt, I think both Reeves and Burnham disgraced themselves. Makes it very easy for me not to support Labour. No wing of it represents me.

[SpinningHugo]

New ICM

Con 46 (-1) Lab 28 (nc) LD 10 (+2) UKIP 8 (nc)

[tinyclanger2]

Maybe one way to change ways of thinking is to be able to exchange views without being condemned for any which are currently held.

[howsillyofme1]

Am not sure that I'm obliged to approve of Labour, given that I don't think the current democratic process (FPTP, Oxbridge Bias, Right Wing press) etc remotely works. So for me, now, the problem is not Labour but the underlying political situation in the UK.

Labour has been tarnished my whole life by my parents' generation's jaundiced view of 'the unions'. In my 30s I knew students, grown up under Thatcherism and with aspirational parents, who would not countenance a Labour government. The Labour brand is so tarnished by now, I do not see how it can work. This is not to be critical. It is to try to understand what problem it is that we are actually trying to solve. To look at it "academically" in the first instance might help us (on the 'left'/'progressives) better identify where our areas of overlap are, so we can focus on them, rather than continually slag each other off for disagreeing on specifics.

The Corbyn and Blair discussions here are (not always, but often) quite toxic. How does this help us move forward? And aren't our views about more than these two?

Fair comment

Although I don't think many of the arguments are Blair v Corbyn mainly people reacting to continued criticism of Corbyn - especially from a small number of posters

I can't remember mentioning Blair very much and would say I am pretty much in agreement with what John Prescott says on the subject

[tinyclanger2]

Am talking historically and generally - not about anything specific or recent.
Am just interested in discussing some of the more 'academic' aspects of what we're facing, rather than regularly arguing over the same differences.

[tinyclanger2]

I think the point is that in general I'm keen to discuss some wider issues - let us make the most of the next five years rather than waste them in recriminations.

[HindleA]

Who is fucking arguing?

Joke

(outside ten minutes,tea pistols at the ready)

[AnatolyKasparov]

Burnham's language was nowhere near as inflammatory as Reeves, these things matter.

Though, just like you (and this is something where we agree) I have little time for the "Very Real Concerns" gang generally and it is certainly regrettable that AB also indulged in this.

I am delighted that he now has the job he wanted, and by such a crushing margin too. Hopefully we will now see him at his best

[tinyclanger2]

am waiting

(outside with tea pistol)

[seeingclearly]

Isn't there something in our national anthem or something about "scatter our enemies" ? Except that this time round we are the enemy. Mostly non-Brexit loving, centre left thinking people who value human rights, etc., etc. WE are now painted as the enemy. All of us, not just corbynites, it was declared in no uncertain terms in Downing street press conferences, and in Parliament. Tim Farron, bless his poor heart, thought it didn't mean him. But the Brexiteering rather triumphal ones will have heard a different message. However we can still fight, but preferably not with each other.

[howsillyofme1]

Am talking historically and generally - not about anything specific or recent.
Am just interested in discussing some of the more 'academic' aspects of what we're facing, rather than regularly arguing over the same differences.

Yes, I agree

It is fine people putting up scenarios for what will happen now and in the future and then opening them up to challenge and debate

Take this morning, for example, Willow thinks that it would be a better election strategy going after the Remainers by advocating continued full membership of the Single Market

There are three aspects to this argument

The ideological one - is it the right policy?
The probability one - is it feasible?
The election one - will it help Labour get more votes and seats?

I think on one of these we are not far away and on the other two we are less in agreement

However, both of our positions are credible and potentially the best to purse in the case of the final one. There is no clear right or wrong and we have both given some reasoning for our view. I respect Willow's view on this

No problems with that and we will see on June 9th when we can see some hard data - we can discuss further then

In now way do I assume my position is 'right' it is just the conclusion I have come to on the information I have in front of me, and sometimes I go against what I think will happen because it goes against my values.

Thus moving further to the right as the electorate does is not something I agree with, even though electorally it may be a better short-term position (just to be clear I am not saying this is Willow's position at all - it was just to describe what I mean)

[PorFavor]

Isn't there something in our national anthem or something about "scatter our enemies" ? Except that this time round we are the enemy. Mostly non-Brexit loving, centre left thinking people who value human rights, etc., etc. WE are now painted as the enemy. All of us, not just corbynites, it was declared in no uncertain terms in Downing street press conferences, and in Parliament. Tim Farron, bless his poor heart, thought it didn't mean him. But the Brexiteering rather triumphal ones will have heard a different message. However we can still fight, but preferably not with each other.

Ah - you mean the National Persecution Complex Anthem?

[citizenJA]

Good-afternoon, everyone.

[AnatolyKasparov]

New ICM

Con 46 (-1) Lab 28 (nc) LD 10 (+2) UKIP 8 (nc)

So whilst May's EU stunt could well have boosted Tory fortunes at the ballot box this week, it doesn't seem to be moving the polls back in the Tories favour.

[seeingclearly]

AK, 'very real concerns' can arouse a lot of different reactions. Same cause, different conclusions. Freedom of movement for many already an issue under discussion for several years, as have none. Involuntary house arrest now a rapidly materialising reality, some advocate retrofitting wheelchairs, scooters and, heaven forbid, zimmer frames with inflatable pontoon devices. Others are for strengthening windows, doors, and wearing body armour. Realists already have prebooked train rickets, risk from Le Pen less than own government, and crap care homes, and poorest now saving up morphine just in case, as other options not viable. * But quite a few excercising voices, rights to peacefully demonstrate, recording and studying events, and advising panicked people on rights etc. So the bigger freedom of movement issue? Looking at public, and wondering why they think 4 freedoms are what needs to be ditched rather than supine and/or scary politicians.

* Only just 'not serious'. See thousands of undiscussed posts on this site.

[SpinningHugo]

New ICM

Con 46 (-1) Lab 28 (nc) LD 10 (+2) UKIP 8 (nc)

So whilst May's EU stunt could well have boosted Tory fortunes at the ballot box this week, it doesn't seem to be moving the polls back in the Tories favour.

I can't believe there is much more headroom for them.

What were you expecting? The Tories on 50%!

If their lead is, say, 15%, that will be a landslide.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Well, one poll (ComedyResults, admittedly) had them on 50% not long after the election was called......

Lots of pundits were predicting a poll boost for May after her Falklands-style "declaration of war" on the EU, so my point is IMO not invalid.

It might actually have prevented a Tory slippage below the 45% mark - still time for that to happen in the campaign.

[seeingclearly]

Big non-Brexit prediction for post election. If May gets desired result. Vouchers and a widening definition of 'benefits'. See UC.

Add to lists of reasons not to undermine Labour. (All iterations, but especially current.)

[HindleA]

TC2 I was waiting,then remembered the totally different location technicality.

[tinyclanger2]

TC2 I was waiting,then remembered the totally different location technicality.

You say that. But I can imagine (given my avatar and name) you're fairly fearful.

[tinyclanger2]

HSOM
Have to admit I'm psychologically discounting the forthcoming election. I used to think that getting a) Labour or if not that then b) not Tories (and more recently Tory/UKIP) in power was key. But for all the euphoria of 1997 we're back where we were in the 1980s only this time going backwards, so actually even worse.

Am finding myself questioning this long-standing solution and wonder if there is something more effective. With or without Brexit. Either we are a selfish right-wing country that hates foreigners and wants to bring back the death penalty, or we find the actual problem and solve it in a different way. Am thinking fundamentals - which is not to discourage continued discussion on more immediate matters - I just find myself looking deeper.

[HindleA]

TC2 according to the rulebook it goes to thank to post rate,so at 1.72 to 1.52 I win.

[howsillyofme1]

HSOM
Have to admit I'm psychologically discounting the forthcoming election. I used to think that getting a) Labour or if not that then b) not Tories (and more recently Tory/UKIP) in power was key. But for all the euphoria of 1997 we're back where we were in the 1980s only this time going backwards, so actually even worse.

Am finding myself questioning this long-standing solution and wonder if there is something more effective. With or without Brexit. Either we are a selfish right-wing country that hates foreigners and wants to bring back the death penalty, or we find the actual problem and solve it in a different way. Am thinking fundamentals - which is not to discourage continued discussion on more immediate matters - I just find myself looking deeper.

I find myself finding it difficult to come back with anything more than - you may well be right!

[tinyclanger2]

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-enter ... 22746.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Banksy on Brexit: Artist claims responsibility for EU flag mural in Dover
The mysterious artwork appeared overnight near the Dover/Calais ferry terminal

[HindleA]

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... erity.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Underestimating the impact of austerity


Mainlymacro

[HindleA]

@seeingclearly,already vouchers,IDS instigated facillitation usage of foodbanks as policy,which people seem to forget.

[tinyclanger2]

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/i-w ... er-anyway/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
People in Emmanuel Macron’s hometown fear Marine Le Pen is racist but will vote for her anyway

[tinyclanger2]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/forget-po ... &r=UK&IR=T" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
With each new shock, pundits scramble to explain the clashing forces producing these political surprises. Their analysis often features traditional distinctions: Red versus blue. Urban versus rural. Religious versus secular. Populist versus elite.

All those divisions are real, but none captures the depth and breadth of what’s happening. Instead, we are witnessing the reemergence of an ancient fault line that has separated human groups for centuries, and is now thrusting itself into global politics.

This fault line is what we call tightness versus looseness. Tight groups are defined by strict rules and social order, tradition and predictability. Loose groups eschew rules, welcome new ideas and embrace tolerance.

Until we recognize this dichotomy and understand where it comes from, explanations for political trends around the world will continue to elude us.

This is the sort of thing I'm on about - widescale patterns relating to human behaviour and (current) cultural limits. How do we make people not afraid (accepting that it is largely fear that brings out the worst in all of us - or at least those of us who aren't socio or psychopaths).

[tinyclanger2]

Threats include warfare, famine and natural disasters. Under threat, societies are likely to tighten up in order to survive, establishing strict rules and embracing strong leaders to maintain order.

[HindleA]

Build a bunker(carpeted)

[AnatolyKasparov]

I am sceptical about ideas other divides such as "open v closed" have made the left/right ones irrelevant, tbh.

Strange (or maybe not) how this has become a favourite of centrists - and perhaps the "liberal" centre-right most of all?

[tinyclanger2]

I don't think new ideas make old ones necessarily irrelevant, but not to look at wider patterns/understand underlying causes, can hinder solving problems.

[tinyclanger2]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/fr ... 32731.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Polls close at 8pm (7pm BST) with exit polls announced almost immediately offering what is widely thought to be an accurate view of the result.

UK polling stations close at 7pm BST.

The winner looks set to be confirmed before midnight (11pm BST).

[tinyclanger2]

TC2 according to the rulebook it goes to thank to post rate,so at 1.72 to 1.52 I win.

How about I win on account of being more generous?

[citizenJA]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/fr ... 32731.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Polls close at 8pm (7pm BST) with exit polls announced almost immediately offering what is widely thought to be an accurate view of the result.

UK polling stations close at 7pm BST.

The winner looks set to be confirmed before midnight (11pm BST).

I'm sorry - do UK polling stations open up so French nationals can vote? I'm confused.

[PorFavor]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/fr ... 32731.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Polls close at 8pm (7pm BST) with exit polls announced almost immediately offering what is widely thought to be an accurate view of the result.

UK polling stations close at 7pm BST.

The winner looks set to be confirmed before midnight (11pm BST).

I'm sorry - do UK polling stations open up so French nationals can vote? I'm confused.

Hello!

And, to answer your question - yes, they do.


Edited to add -

But I'm not sure where\how widespread (and all the other details).