Saturday 6th & Sunday 7th May 2017

Post by **refitman** » Sat 06 May, 2017 8:36 am

Morning all.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:16 am

Morning.

Without looking it up, ONE guess who was on BBC Any Questions last night?

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:22 am

Jonathan Dimbleby?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:22 am

NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Without looking it up, ONE guess who was on BBC Any Questions last night?

I think they use the last general election vote share to determine coverage.

We'll be seeing them a lot less.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:25 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39827244" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron says it has been the target of a "massive hacking attack" after a trove of documents was released online.
The campaign said that genuine files were mixed up with fake ones in order to confuse people.
It said it was clear that hackers wanted to undermine Mr Macron ahead of Sunday's second round vote.
The centrist will face off against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.
The documents were leaked on a file sharing website late on Friday and the Macron camp condemned the action just before the official campaigning period ended at midnight (22:00 GMT).
Candidates and the media now face restrictions until the polls close on Sunday evening, meaning Mr Macron cannot issue further statements.

For those who thought the internet was the future in political campaigning, I wonder if they ever imagined "fake news" originating in foreign countries would have the biggest impact? Hopefully French voters will be duly sceptical of the cynical timing of this "leak".

Will the UK election be similarly affected?

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:35 am

Willow904 wrote:
Will the UK election be similarly affected?

No, because the right are winning.

If it was, it would suggest they were worried.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:50 am

Good morfternoon.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:05 am

SpinningHugo wrote:
NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Without looking it up, ONE guess who was on BBC Any Questions last night?

I think they use the last general election vote share to determine coverage.

We'll be seeing them a lot less.

In that respect at least, the GE can't come soon enough I suppose.

Though many of us still think UKIP in general and Farage in particular have been indulged rather more than their 12.5% share in 2015 strictly merits.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:13 am

I agree with Anatoly. I don't think BBc coverage has been proportionate at all, going right back to 2012ish.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:46 am

Good-morning, everyone

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 11:48 am

NonOxCol wrote:I agree with Anatoly. I don't think BBc coverage has been proportionate at all, going right back to 2012ish.

On a perhaps not unrelated note, the BBC website has carried some half a dozen puff pieces on Marine le Pen in the last few months.

All largely gushing and uncritical - "controversial" seems to be about the strongest epithet they are willing to apply.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 12:21 pm

Many thanks to commentators last night tempering anger with good humour

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:08 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
NonOxCol wrote:I agree with Anatoly. I don't think BBc coverage has been proportionate at all, going right back to 2012ish.
On a perhaps not unrelated note, the BBC website has carried some half a dozen puff pieces on Marine le Pen in the last few months.

All largely gushing and uncritical - "controversial" seems to be about the strongest epithet they are willing to apply.

Exactly. They have completely lost their way.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:09 pm

gilsey wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
Will the UK election be similarly affected?
No, because the right are winning.

If it was, it would suggest they were worried.

Given these hacks pretty much all come from Russian state actors I don't think right or left determines who gets hacked, mainly it is a concerted attempt to get disruptive and damaging leaders elected. FN, Five Star and Trump seem to be the chosen by Putin. They are all on the right but they are also all anti EU and isolationist, both things that help Russia and hurt the west.

I am fairly sure he would prefer a Corbyn win because of his NATO and pro Russia views, but on the other hand Theresa May looks intent on screwing up the UK so I suspect he is fairly relaxed about who wins.

Incidentally there is some deeply weird stuff going on with intelligence agencies so anything could happen. This is Bruce Schneier's take on it.

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/ ... lishi.html

This is particular caught my eye.

Three: in March, NSA Deputy Director Richard Ledgett described how the NSA penetrated the computer networks of a Russian intelligence agency and was able to monitor them as they attacked the US State Department in 2014. Even more explicitly, a US ally -- my guess is the UK -- was not only hacking the Russian intelligence agency's computers, but also the surveillance cameras inside their building. "They [the US ally] monitored the [Russian] hackers as they maneuvered inside the U.S. systems and as they walked in and out of the workspace, and were able to see faces, the officials said."

Countries don't often reveal intelligence capabilities: "sources and methods." Because it gives their adversaries important information about what to fix, it's a deliberate decision done with good reason. And it's not just the target country who learns from a reveal. When the US announces that it can see through the cameras inside the buildings of Russia's cyber warriors, other countries immediately check the security of their own cameras.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:11 pm

citizenJA wrote:Many thanks to commentators last night tempering anger with good humour

The best joke of the night was when you apologised for offending somebody.

I am fairly certain that never happens.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:16 pm

NonOxCol wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
NonOxCol wrote:I agree with Anatoly. I don't think BBc coverage has been proportionate at all, going right back to 2012ish.
On a perhaps not unrelated note, the BBC website has carried some half a dozen puff pieces on Marine le Pen in the last few months.

All largely gushing and uncritical - "controversial" seems to be about the strongest epithet they are willing to apply.
Exactly. They have completely lost their way.

Their Badminton cross country coverage is pretty good right now (about 50% of the worlds top riders are failing to get round). Their politics coverage however has been awful simplistic and toxic for a decade.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:45 pm

Victoria Derbyshire is good.

The BBC isn't the problem. Our elitist society that leads to the privately educated disproportionately occupying influential roles in government, the judiciary and journalism is the problem.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:53 pm

The EU has toughened its stance on the fate of 3m EU citizens in the UK, demanding an effective post-Brexit amnesty even for those with no proof of residency.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 21201.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, said Britain had yet to put forward any proposals of its own, despite insisting the issue was a priority.

Ian Duncan Smith (who should maybe follow his own advice):

“I don't even know why Mr Barnier is talking about this because it is a matter for the UK government. He should shut up and wait for the negotiations.”

Mr Barnier warned the Conservatives that agreeing to the EU’s demand for rights that were “directly enforceable” by the ECJ would be a red line before trade talks can begin.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 1:56 pm

Willow904 wrote:Victoria Derbyshire is good.

The BBC isn't the problem. Our elitist society that leads to the privately educated disproportionately occupying influential roles in government, the judiciary and journalism is the problem.

And the BBC has been colonised by those types as well - so yes, it is part of the problem.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 06 May, 2017 2:09 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... nt-warning" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yet these figures suggest that the main parties of the right (the Conservatives and Ukip) have broadly the same level of support across the UK, 43%, as the main parties of the left (Labour and the Liberal Democrats) on 45%. The gulf in their general election prospects is explained by the difference in the balance of power within the two sides. On the right, the Tories have harvested votes from Ukip, which is in eclipse. On the left, Labour and the Lib Dems are more evenly divided, with the Greens in the mix too.

When the Libdems were eclipsed in 2015, the South West would have become a sea of blue from Bristol to Penzance if it were not for the little blob of red that is Exeter, Ben Bradshaw's seat. I made a comment at the time along the lines of if Labour could replicate what Bradshaw managed in Exeter more widely along the South coast, there was an opportunity for Labour to become the new opposition to the Tories in this area. Some of these places were once SDP hence once Labour. The point I'm really trying to make is that Labour needs stronger regional leadership to hone a general left wing message into precise arguments and themes that resonate with the area. Far from winning back Ukip switchers, Labour should be striving to convert Libdems, at least in the areas where the Libdem support was built on the old SDP vote rather than the Liberal vote.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 2:21 pm

Willow904 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... nt-warning
Yet these figures suggest that the main parties of the right (the Conservatives and Ukip) have broadly the same level of support across the UK, 43%, as the main parties of the left (Labour and the Liberal Democrats) on 45%. The gulf in their general election prospects is explained by the difference in the balance of power within the two sides. On the right, the Tories have harvested votes from Ukip, which is in eclipse. On the left, Labour and the Lib Dems are more evenly divided, with the Greens in the mix too.
When the Libdems were eclipsed in 2015, the South West would have become a sea of blue from Bristol to Penzance if it were not for the little blob of red that is Exeter, Ben Bradshaw's seat. I made a comment at the time along the lines of if Labour could replicate what Bradshaw managed in Exeter more widely along the South coast, there was an opportunity for Labour to become the new opposition to the Tories in this area. Some of these places were once SDP hence once Labour. The point I'm really trying to make is that Labour needs stronger regional leadership to hone a general left wing message into precise arguments and themes that resonate with the area. Far from winning back Ukip switchers, Labour should be striving to convert Libdems, at least in the areas where the Libdem support was built on the old SDP vote rather than the Liberal vote.

There aren't enough Lib Dems, and you are probably into the absolute hard core, very difficult to get them. There are more soft Tories and the critical Labour to ToryKip vote is about 50 seats. In the South West the Lib Dems have the organisation, Labour doesn't.

If the Lib Dems flatline at this election, and assuming the end of Corbynistas you might see the beginnings of an alliance between a centre left Labour Party and the Lib Dems. There is very little overlap and Scotland has changed things dramatically. The time is probably right and both parties will be desperate.

The best way to combat coalition of chaos is to be up front about it. The Greens will again become the home of SWP and CPGB voters, but you can't win an election with that constituency on board.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 06 May, 2017 2:35 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Victoria Derbyshire is good.

The BBC isn't the problem. Our elitist society that leads to the privately educated disproportionately occupying influential roles in government, the judiciary and journalism is the problem.
And the BBC has been colonised by those types as well - so yes, it is part of the problem.

The BBC used to have security vetting of employees carried out by MI5 (as did BT), this might have been made easier by sourcing recruits from a small pool which was easier to monitor (public schools, top universities, elite networks, etc).

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 06 May, 2017 3:01 pm

Afternoon.

I've been out leafleting for our Scout's plant sale next week. A few people on the doorstep took leaflets and said "Oh, OK. Have to come to that".

But...a few years ago a patch of land between two roads which previously had tennis courts on was turned into housing. But not just any old housing. One where there is a gate to the road with a keypad to get in. So, no leaflets. They may have their own little community in there but by choice they're certainly not part of ours. I find that sad...

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sat 06 May, 2017 3:49 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Afternoon.

I've been out leafleting for our Scout's plant sale next week. A few people on the doorstep took leaflets and said "Oh, OK. Have to come to that".

But...a few years ago a patch of land between two roads which previously had tennis courts on was turned into housing. But not just any old housing. One where there is a gate to the road with a keypad to get in. So, no leaflets. They may have their own little community in there but by choice they're certainly not part of ours. I find that sad...

: images.jpg (3.96 KiB) Viewed 16393 times

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ScarletGas · Post by **ScarletGas** » Sat 06 May, 2017 3:56 pm

I see that Katie Hopkins has decided that the conservatives have now become nasty enough for her to support.

This alone should give anyone with a modicum of common sense pause for thought as to where this country is being led currently!

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 4:59 pm

She didn't even support UKIP when they were on a roll because they weren't right wing enough for her, I think?

In this instance at least May is welcome to her "support", mind.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 06 May, 2017 5:18 pm

For form's sake
Opinium/Observer:

CON 46 (-1)
LAB 30 (=)
LD 9 (-1)
UKIP 7 (=)
GRN 2 (-1)
SNP 4 (-1)

2nd-3rd May
N=2,005

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sat 06 May, 2017 5:56 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 21161.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tequila could help strengthen bones and fight osteoporosis / Getty Images/iStockphoto
It's practically a superfood, right?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 06 May, 2017 6:30 pm

Dear me, Julia Hartley Brewer is bad enough in print but live?

http://talkradio.co.uk/news/julia-hartl ... hool-tests" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Talking very quickly and cutting people off before they've explained the point - she's perfect for Talk Radio...

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sat 06 May, 2017 6:46 pm

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/g ... e-10368192" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Green Party pulls out of Oxfordshire seat to help defeat the Tories
The party has withdrawn its candidate from Oxford West and Abingdon to give the Lib Dems a clear run at the seat

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 06 May, 2017 7:17 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/g ... e-10368192
Green Party pulls out of Oxfordshire seat to help defeat the Tories
The party has withdrawn its candidate from Oxford West and Abingdon to give the Lib Dems a clear run at the seat

Funny area Oxford. Very leftwing in parts (see Bristol) and very Remain-y.

I had thought the latter would hurt Labour more (as it has with me, my hostility to Labour's position has not exactly gone unnoticed). But, in the locals, that didn't really hurt Labour, and they pushed the Greens back, somewhat to my annoyance and surprise.

For the general public, even those relatively well informed (see this board), the EU is still a low salience issue. So, the Lib Dems and Greens are seeing hardly any cut through. See the locals in Oxfordshire.

That seat is now unwinnable by the Lib Dems anyway. Safe Tory now.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 7:54 pm

It may be unwinnable this time, but may not be in the future.

I would not be surprised to see a significant pro LibDem swing in OxWAB next time even if that goes against the national trend.

(they did well in Abingdon this week, not just the Oxford bit - that possibly bodes well)

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:24 pm

tinybgoat wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Victoria Derbyshire is good.

The BBC isn't the problem. Our elitist society that leads to the privately educated disproportionately occupying influential roles in government, the judiciary and journalism is the problem.
And the BBC has been colonised by those types as well - so yes, it is part of the problem.
The BBC used to have security vetting of employees carried out by MI5 (as did BT), this might have been made easier by sourcing recruits from a small pool which was easier to monitor (public schools, top universities, elite networks, etc).

Most companies have vetting of employees, if they are working on critical national infrastructure or projects. It is nothing to do with limiting where you get people from, it is designed to safeguard the country. In part it exists to avoid the chumocracy which had so exposed MI5 to Philby et al.

If you remember Andy Coulson, the big scandal was that he was Cameron's right hand man but only held SC clearance, mainly because he would never pass DV.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:27 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:It may be unwinnable this time, but may not be in the future.

I would not be surprised to see a significant pro LibDem swing in OxWAB next time even if that goes against the national trend.

(they did well in Abingdon this week, not just the Oxford bit - that possibly bodes well)

Evan's old seat, decent bloke, a bit surprised he isn't fighting it again.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:31 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... urt-battle" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Government set to be taken back to court over air pollution plans

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:35 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:It may be unwinnable this time, but may not be in the future.

I would not be surprised to see a significant pro LibDem swing in OxWAB next time even if that goes against the national trend.

(they did well in Abingdon this week, not just the Oxford bit - that possibly bodes well)
Evan's old seat, decent bloke, a bit surprised he isn't fighting it again.

Had a bit of time for him as LibDems went despite his personal foibles (pro-hunting, Dawkinsite "militant atheist" - I have never felt fully comfortable with them)

Good chess player too, which does no harm

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:46 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -apartment" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pentagon to house nuclear football' in leased Trump Tower apartment – letter

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 9:57 pm

Kev,won easilly,as ever so village and surrounding areas remain red,interesting because of lessening of council housing/organised labour/miners and influx of mansion like properties,even bigger than mine some with their own post code.I know not many vote in these things.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:04 pm

YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

I don't think much is changing.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:10 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ility-blog" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A moment that changed me: refusing to let disability silence me, and blogging
Lucy Webster

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:14 pm

Helped that I voted twenty four times in various disguises.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:19 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Record number of UK care homes declared insolvent

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:22 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Skin patch costing 39p could save lives of stroke victims, researchers say

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:24 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

City mayors are far more nimble and proactive than Westminster politicians
Sadiq Khan

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:28 pm

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/we ... t-cuts?amp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How it feels when your research is used to justify disability benefit cuts

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:37 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

I don't think much is changing.

Highest LibDem score in a poll for some time I think. Not so massively surprising if it was taken during/after the local elections, though.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:38 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... aster-ahca" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Democrats have no business rejoicing at the Trumpcare disaster
Douglas Williams

Tizme · Post by **Tizme** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:46 pm

Greetings all,

Sorry Refitman, although I was logged in yesterday, and all of today, I was busy with non computer stuff and have only just caught up on both yesterday's and today's posts. So to answer your question, how things are in my neck of the woods. Hmm. On a personal level - pretty bloody crap to be honest. Many problems, some more major than others - fortunately no serious health problems so I'm just being stoic. As the saying goes, "If you're going through hell - keep going".

Politically - not so good round here either. There has been trouble at t'mill within the local Green party over the last six months or so I'm sorry to say. Broadly speaking between the Young Greens and the Evergreens. There is fault [for want of a better word] on both sides and I'm trying to build bridges between everyone but lets just say it ain't easy. Especially with the County Council elections and now a sodding G/E to organise campaigns for.

Annoyingly, the Green Party nationally brought in emergency procedures for candidate selection for the G/E. The idea being to make it faster obvs. But it actually made it slower and more complicated than the procedures we used in 2015 - here at least. Given we cover two constituencies it's been a right pain in the rear. I was the one organising it all which was difficult for various reasons. As you know, I am a believer in democracy and fairness, and because I was organising things, I couldn't tell people what I really thought of one of the candidates. I won't go into the detail but suffice to say, my feeling was no, oh please no.

Of course he won. So now I'm fundraising and organising two G/E candidate's campaigns which is hard enough in itself. But one of them I don't support and, ironically he is the candidate for my personal constituency. So in a way, I'm facing an opposite problem to the dilemma I had in 2015. Much as I obviously would prefer a Green Party government, it ain't going to happen this June. So what I should be working for is to save our deposits in Watford and Hertsmere [and build support]. Which frankly is a challenge.

When it comes to my personal vote, do I vote for our Green Candidate who I do not approve of, or do I vote tactically and if so, who for? The Labour or Lib dem candidate? Hard to imagine voting for the Lib dems at this point. I do know the candidate but not at all well. I don't think he falls in the category of the one or two decent local lib dems. My opinion is he's very much one of Dorothy's gang.

So, Labour? They've shipped in an outsider who I know nothing about. But that speaks volumes to me. They don't think they can win. In a seat that has been pretty much a 'bellweather' seat forever. Strikes me Harrington is going to win here whatever. So, I may as well try to look the future and bolster the Green vote. Except that means voting for someone I don't approve of............

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:51 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

I don't think much is changing.

With the possible exception of Clegg Mania and this moment in the 87 campaign, does it ever?

https://youtu.be/QF52Lh7uVGk

(Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to have to shout over backing music etc etc)

And even then if you look at the polls start and end positions are remarkably consistent.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 06 May, 2017 10:53 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:YouGov Sunday Times poll

Con 47% (-1)

Lab 28% (-1)

LD 14 (+4)

I don't think much is changing.
Highest LibDem score in a poll for some time I think. Not so massively surprising if it was taken during/after the local elections, though.

Its the pro EU Kipper vote (yes they exist) returning to the fold.