Thursday May 11th 2017

[HindleA]

Morning


Had to check date,then.Thought we had a Minister for the Disabled worthy of the name and Leeds had just won the League(74 much preferable to preceding year)


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ing-market" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Stagnant' buyer demand puts the brakes on UK housing market

[howsillyofme1]

Good morning MrA and all

Headline in Guardian 'Labour manifesto leaks spark row' - reading the story the 'row' seems to indicate criticism coming from the Mail and the Telegraph with some Tory spin. Not my definition of a 'row'

As to the leaks well it will have to wait until we see the manifesto as it is not fully described

For example we see power nationalisation is not the return to a monolithic nationalised monopoly that it could be taken to be

If this si the basis of the direction on travel can I say I am pretty ok so far - could have freed up some money by binning Trident (if anyone asks 'where is the money coming from' but supports this load of nonsense then...well...)

I like to see that state ownership is on the table in certain cases - the move towards privatization has been ill-judged and expensive in my view

There are lots of way to 'nationalize' and, just as privitization can be the right way, so can state ownership

Nothing that is beuing proposed is not already seen in many, more successful, economies - in fact state-owned companies are welcomed to run our services - just as long as it isn't owned by the British state - what sort of message does that send out about our competence as a nation

Let us see the details and how it compares the Tory one (all we know is fox hunting and increasing spending on defence so far - a country that cuts education but funds arms....says a lot about us doesn't it?)

[SpinningHugo]

Does Labour propose to nationalise water (the only good candidate)?

Edited: scan through: not mentioned.

That is a pretty clear sign that this was not written by someone with any awareness of economists' views on what should and should not be nationalised.

I don't know. It is hard for me to criticise as I'll be voting Green whose manifesto will be more radical still. But there are good reasons why Miliband was forced to drop the tuition fee pledge (really expensive AND regressive), didn't propose these nationalisations (expensive and pointless), didn't go for mass council house building (can't be done in many areas where need is strongest, and really unfair in terms of distribution).

I do approve of taxing the wealthiest more, but a much better thing that could easily be done with the money raised would be to just give cash to the poorest.

[howsillyofme1]

Does Labour propose to nationalise water (the only good candidate)?

It doesn't say and it is not the only candidate

There are different ways for the state to be involved that does not involve monolithic state owned monopolies

Public ownership can be in many guises....some of our rail franchises are publicly owned....just not by us

[SpinningHugo]

Does Labour propose to nationalise water (the only good candidate)?

It doesn't say and it is not the only candidate

There are different ways for the state to be involved that does not involve monolithic state owned monopolies

Public ownership can be in many guises....some of our rail franchises are publicly owned....just not by us

There are lots and lots of other candidates. The food industry, banks, corner shops.

It is, however, the one and only good one. Ask an economist which privatisation he or she would reverse.

There re no publicly owned rail franchises at the moment I think, although I know there was one a few years ago.

[Willow904]

Personally I see little point in discussing the merits or otherwise of the leaked Labour manifesto, we have no way of knowing what will end up in the final version. I'm going to wait for the actual manifesto to come out and look at the policies then. Although I'm more interested in what is - and isn't - in the Tory one tbh. Unless the polls shift a lot, it's the one we'll most likely be ending up with.

[SpinningHugo]

Personally I see little point in discussing the merits or otherwise of the leaked Labour manifesto, we have no way of knowing what will end up in the final version. I'm going to wait for the actual manifesto to come out and look at the policies then. Although I'm more interested in what is - and isn't - in the Tory one tbh. Unless the polls shift a lot, it's the one we'll most likely be ending up with.

I think the policies are worth discussing for themselves. even if they don't go into the final manifesto.


So, for example, wage caps. A good idea?

I'd suggest not. Much much better to deal with inequality using the tax system, rather than price fixing.

[NonOxCol]

Morning.

Two tweet threads where the OPs between them pretty much sum up where I am:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

Pity it isn't the 70's in attitudinal terms,sadly sensible regardless of party agreement on benefits/allowances introduction/increasement as cost saving investment,apparently even a feckless inducement view among some Labour.

[HindleA]

Red Keith and his support for carers benefits and home help.investment.

[StephenDolan]

Laura pushing for an OBE again on Today. What a Jeremy Hunt she is.

[ScarletGas]

Eh?

Political correspondent for the Telegraph Kate McCann says this isn't how the party would've wanted its plans to emerge, and "it doesn't really provide anything for voters seeking an alternative to the Conservatives". 

Source BBC Website

Edited for emphsis

[citizenJA]

Morning.

Two tweet threads where the OPs between them pretty much sum up where I am:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Exactly
Tories conjure vast sums out of the nation for Tory whatever
If Tory government has it, so does a Labour government
Whiners can stow their perfidious chatter

[frightful_oik]

Morning


Had to check date,then.Thought we had a Minister for the Disabled worthy of the name and Leeds had just won the League(74 much preferable to preceding year)


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ing-market" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Stagnant' buyer demand puts the brakes on UK housing market

I thought 1972 and 1975 were better than either.
Shouldn't we call it an ifesto to keep it gender neutral?

[HindleA]

@scarletgas

Torygraph is like Viz but with easier crosswords.

[HindleA]

Tenuous link,I am going to Pride Park in a few weeks,not playing football.

[frightful_oik]

Tenuous link,I am going to Pride Park in a few weeks,not playing football.

That's what our players say.

[howsillyofme1]

I think, agreeing with Hugo, that discussing some of these policy positions is also worthwhile although the detail won't all be fully known until the launch

The wage caps idea as one, is a tricky one as it will be really difficult to enforce. What I do like thiough is the principle that these firms who are being paid huge amounts of money from the public purse to perform 'services'(oftentimes really badly under confidential contracts) have to meet certain criteria in order to be considered. Executive renumeration could be one. Paying the living wage, all profits made in the UK taxed here, labour conditions etc could be other areas to look at. Making the contracts available too would be good - we can hold our Government to account then for making bad deals

Executive pay in all sectors is an abomination though - very rarely backed up by any indication of improved performance. It is not just private enterprise either, it is University VC and all these other administrators who judge themselves worth so much. I see, also, another 'superhead' has bee charged with fraud.....how many is that now?

On the nationalization - I am sure I can find economists who would not have made some privitizations without too many problems - the main difficulty is how to fund them seeing they were often so undervalued. This does not mean all avenues should not be explored on how a more active role for Government could be accessed.

Oh, and publicly owned companies such as EDF, Deutsche Bahn, SNCF already run our industries. All very much involving the state - just not ours

The tuition fees, again there are options. I have always said a contribution to fees should be made, as in many European countries, but at a far lower level than we see here now. A max of 1-2K. It is already expensive funding this but it is funding that is hidden away with the promise of a^'pay back' sometime in the future. It looks free because of accounting tricks but the reality is likely it will end up costing us a fortune - or be sold on at a loss to some loansharks. The losers will be the taxpayers and the students in a few years time!

It is regressive because of the way we view education in this country. I would allow all adults in this country to have access to a tertiary education at some point in their life - even if it is paid for night classes or OU degrees. This will be expensive, but would be an investment in our people. Encourage companies to fund personal development training which could also be included. Get rid of Trident to help contribute

There are so many options we could use to look at improving our society and making us a bit happier - the UK does seem to be in a negative place at the moment....and not down to the people who live there necessarily

And, Hugo you prophese to be a left winger but ysou never seem to support any left wing policies, always ready with a 'you can't do that because....'

If this forms a basis for a manifesto then, even if there are some things I don't like or would do differently, I still like the direction of travel

Edited to change word in red

[SpinningHugo]

I think, agreeing with Hugo, that discussing some of these policy positions is also worthwhile although the detail won't all be fully known until the launch

The wage caps idea as one, is a tricky one as it will be really difficult to enforce. What I do like thiough is the principle that these firms who are being paid huge amounts of money from the public purse to perform 'services'(oftentimes really badly under confidential contracts) have to meet certain criteria in order to be considered. Executive renumeration could be one. Paying the living wage, all profits made in the UK taxed here, labour conditions etc could be other areas to look at. Making the contracts available too would be good - we can hold our Government to account then for making bad deals

Executive pay in all sectors is an abomination though - very rarely backed up by any indication of improved performance. It is not just private enterprise either, it is University VC and all these other administrators who judge themselves worth so much. I see, also, another 'superhead' has bee charged with fraud.....how many is that now?

On the nationalization - I am sure I can find economists who would not have made some privitizations without too many problems - the main difficulty is how to fund them seeing they were often so undervalued. This does not mean all avenues should not be explored on how a more active role for Government could be accessed.

Oh, and publicly owned companies such as EDF, Deutsche Bahn, SNCF already run our industries. All very much involving the state - just not ours

The tuition fees, again there are options. I have always said a contribution to fees should be made, as in many European countries, but at a far lower level than we see here now. A max of 1-2K. It is already expensive funding this but it is funding that is hidden away with the promise of a^'pay back' sometime in the future. It looks free because of accounting tricks but the reality is likely it will end up costing us a fortune - or be sold on at a loss to some loansharks. The losers will be the taxpayers and the students in a few years time!

It is regressive because of the way we view education in this country. I would allow all adults in this country to have access to a tertiary education at some point in their life - even if it is paid for night classes or OU degrees. This will be expensive, but would be an investment in our people. Encourage companies to fund personal development training which could also be included. Get rid of Trident to help contribute

There are so many options we could use to look at improving our society and making us a bit happier - the UK does seem to be in a negative place at the moment....and not down to the people who live there necessarily

And, Hugo you prophese to be a left winger but ysou never seem to support any left wing policies, always ready with a 'you can't do that because....'

If this forms a basis for a manifesto then, even if there are some things I don't like or would do differently, I still like the direction of travel

Edited to change word in red

Who are the economists who think renationalisation of rail is a good idea?

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... after-leak" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[howsillyofme1]

There are plenty of different ways to bring something into public ownership

Wilmer doesn't support wholesale renationalisation but a more gradual approach and allowing the state to be more involved....actually made easier by Brexit

Whatever happens we cannot leave the railways as is so there has to be some reform and the Tories will not favour the passenger

Let us wait for the detail about what is proposed before dismissing it

Oh and if you look at my quote I said that renationalization is difficult not because it is wrong but just it costs too much due to how the original sell off was do bad

[NonOxCol]

*head explodes as usual*

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you thought the first two comments were appalling enough, the patronising prick even manages to get worse with his replies to someone with the temerity to call him the sanctimonious wanker he is.

[NonOxCol]

Katie Hile (BBC Business and Economics producer trawling social media for ex-Labour Corbyn haters) the sequel:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Eric_WLothian]

...the back to the seventies thing not actually backward at all,so you can pooh pooh all you want but as I am concerned a move back to some basic decency,respect and humanity is to be welcomed.

Well, I hope so, Blackadder. You know, if there's one thing I've learnt from being in the Army, it's never ignore a pooh-pooh. I knew a Major, who got pooh-poohed, made the mistake of ignoring the pooh-pooh. He pooh-poohed it! Fatal error! 'Cos it turned out all along that the soldier who pooh-poohed him had been pooh-poohing a lot of other officers who pooh-poohed their pooh-poohs. In the end, we had to disband the regiment. Morale totally destroyed... by pooh-pooh!

Sorry - couldn't resist it.

[HindleA]

Pretty sensible stuff,not unexpected to those following,actually been some agreement on approach to a more "combined "assessment process for some time.Crucially of course,as ever it is intent and genuine co production with the real experts rather than those driven by profit and demonisation as part of political machination.Vast savings and basic humanity,go hand in hand.

[HindleA]

I sleep with Winnie the Pooh(purely platonic),every night,as well as Guy the Gorilla who thinks he is the Pope who insists on knitted gloves and scarves.They made a promise to look after me,on condition it doesn't extend to the cremation thing,which is fair enough,but an unusual mention in a will,I suspect.

[HindleA]

Guy's only 1 ft 6 ,clarification,ex boxer who inconveniently faints at the sight of blood,bought half price at Woolworths on 12 th February '04,early afternoon.Not that I remember such detail of every item and/or keep a record of or anything(£5)

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

Without having examined it closely, I'm quite pleased with the manifesto.

And if, as is suggested, the "leak" was deliberate in order to gain coverage and to test the water for fine-tuning purposes, then I'm impressed. Brilliant move.

But I'd like to see water taken back into public ownership.

[howsillyofme1]

Good morfternoon.

Without having examined it closely, I'm quite pleased with the manifesto.

And if, as is suggested, the "leak" was deliberate in order to gain coverage and to test the water for fine-tuning purposes, then I'm impressed. Brilliant move.

But I'd like to see water taken back into public ownership.

Reporters are describing it as Hard Left. I don't see it like that - there is nothing there that a lot of countries don't do on the continent

I agree on water

[Willow904]

Good morfternoon.

Without having examined it closely, I'm quite pleased with the manifesto.

And if, as is suggested, the "leak" was deliberate in order to gain coverage and to test the water for fine-tuning purposes, then I'm impressed. Brilliant move.

But I'd like to see water taken back into public ownership.

I agree about water. I live in one of the most expensive areas for water (only Devon and Cornwall pay more, I think) for no apparent reason that I can see. I live a stone's throw from an enormous reservoir and as we get so much rain around here there hasn't been a hose pipe ban for years. Wessex water belongs to a Malaysian company, YTL Power. It's considered a good investment, regardless of Brexit:

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/w ... -ytl-power" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Despite the weaker earnings outlook due to the weaker pound, we continue to like YTL Power for its attractive dividend yield. We believe it still has the ability to generate sufficient free cash flows for dividend payments. Since almost all of its earnings come from its assets in the UK and Singapore, investors are effectively getting above 6% dividend yield from utility assets in these advanced economies. Weaker-than-expected pound and Powerseraya’s earnings are the key downside risks to YTL Power’s valuation.

UK government ensure fat profits by fixing the price. They don't ensure investment in the supply infrastructure, however, with Offwat's last price fixing decision leading to Wessex Water shelving plans for a new reservoir that is necessary to accommodate population growth going forwards. Of course, they are still taking out a healthy profit, which is the point, after all, not us getting a decent water supply which is obviously just a bit of a bonus if they can manage that too on the huge sums they are allowed to charge us.

[SpinningHugo]

The next attack line is obviously going to be about cost.

So, the manifesto says this is all fully costed, but then sets out that there will be some tax rises without specifying what they'll be (save in relation to corporation tax).

I don't think for a minute that Labour will ever be in a position to put any of this into practice, but it is interesting what survives and what doesn't.

The claim about the badger cull spreading bovine TB is a bold one.

[howsillyofme1]

The next attack line is obviously going to be about cost.

So, the manifesto says this is all fully costed, but then sets out that there will be some tax rises without specifying what they'll be (save in relation to corporation tax).

I don't think for a minute that Labour will ever be in a position to put any of this into practice, but it is interesting what survives and what doesn't.

The claim about the badger cull spreading bovine TB is a bold one.

We will see when it is presented next week. This is not the manifesto it is a leaked draft

It should be used to indicate direction of travel but should not be taken as being official

Shame they didn't release a few billion by binning Trident

Let us concentrate on asking how the Tories will pay for theirs.

The 2010 and 2015 ones were full of bullshit - nice if the media pointed this out and asked why we should believe 2017

One issue we have that no One is mentioning much is the impact of inflation. It is being ignored because interest rates are low but impact on public finances especially NHS will be high.....

[AnatolyKasparov]

Have actually seen some positive comments about the "leaked manifesto" from people who aren't tribally pro-Labour.

Lots of people out there *do* want a genuine alternative - even if they don't trust Corbyn to deliver it.

[NonOxCol]

Neat summary of how ridiculous we are these days:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RogerOThornhill]

Afternoon all.



In between the incessant jeering at Labour you would have thought that Tories might have paused for thought as to what their side has come up with so far i.e. bugger all. Oh...fox hunting.

But they won't. Politics is about sneering at one's opponents and keeping quiet about your own side.

[citizenJA]

Have actually seen some positive comments about the "leaked manifesto" from people who aren't tribally pro-Labour.

Lots of people out there *do* want a genuine alternative - even if they don't trust Corbyn to deliver it.

I can confirm this, though my meetings with other members of the electorate aren't extensive

[PorFavor]

Mike Hookem MEP, Ukip’s fishing spokesman (Politics Live, Guardian)

I suppose his name just fit . . .

[TechnicalEphemera]

*head explodes as usual*

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you thought the first two comments were appalling enough, the patronising prick even manages to get worse with his replies to someone with the temerity to call him the sanctimonious wanker he is.

But at least somebody got to call him a cockwomble in the responses.

The worst sort of holier than thou champagne socialist.

[citizenJA]

*head explodes as usual*

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you thought the first two comments were appalling enough, the patronising prick even manages to get worse with his replies to someone with the temerity to call him the sanctimonious wanker he is.

I'm having trouble working up the courage to look at it. I used to admire Giles Fraser a bit. I can't any more.

edited to add

I've looked at Fraser's tweet, none of the responses
Why, Fraser? Why post that? The Labour party doesn't belong to any one leader, ever
I want a Labour government and I'm working for that now, for this coming election
I won't argue about the current Labour leader
Labour is best for the country and people

[citizenJA]

Grammar schools and fox-hunting
the Tory manifesto

[TechnicalEphemera]

Have actually seen some positive comments about the "leaked manifesto" from people who aren't tribally pro-Labour.

Lots of people out there *do* want a genuine alternative - even if they don't trust Corbyn to deliver it.

I can confirm this, though my meetings with other members of the electorate aren't extensive

This manifesto could win presented by a better leader. Sadly as 2015 proved if people don't like the leader they vote for the other side (even if Cameron was an obvious grade A1 tosser). However this will help Labour.

Whoever leaked it should be promoted.

It released the whole thing in one bloc, rather than dripping out giving the tories time to defeat each policy individually. It gives a clear direction and it has totally thrown the Tory media machine. Labour needed a big splash, this has made one.

Plus the Clause V meeting should be short and sweet. Manifesto out, nothing too embarassing, AOB, dinner.

[PorFavor]

*head explodes as usual*

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you thought the first two comments were appalling enough, the patronising prick even manages to get worse with his replies to someone with the temerity to call him the sanctimonious wanker he is.

But at least somebody got to call him a cockwomble in the responses.

The worst sort of holier than thou champagne socialist.

If Labour "looses"? Looses what? Their stays?

[AnatolyKasparov]

Afternoon all.



In between the incessant jeering at Labour you would have thought that Tories might have paused for thought as to what their side has come up with so far i.e. bugger all. Oh...fox hunting.

But they won't. Politics is about sneering at one's opponents and keeping quiet about your own side.

That second one doesn't even work on its own terms. Who out there could possibly imagine LABOUR want to bring back grammar schools??

[citizenJA]

If Labour "looses"? Looses what? Their stays?

(cJA edit)
Damned corset

[citizenJA]

'Volatility can't stay this low forever'
- M. Carney

A Nirvana song, isn't it? An early one? White Zombie, maybe

[citizenJA]

There’s lots of coverage of the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report.

Chris Giles of the Financial Times is struck by Carney’s comments on Brexit:

UK interest rates will be able to rise towards more normal levels during the next three years if Theresa May negotiates a “smooth”
Brexit, the Bank of England said on Thursday as it published forecasts suggesting that the recent economic slowdown will be temporary.

But in a stark warning to the UK prime minister less than one month before the general election, the central bank made it
clear that its sanguine forecasts depended on Mrs May coming back from Brussels with a Brexit deal that ensures companies
will not have to make sharp adjustments as the UK leaves the EU.

Tories spent seven years programming self-destruct for the starship without finding an inhabitable planet to beam down to prior detonation. Dave lost the override code.

[howsillyofme1]

So the policies coming out of Labour seem, on the face of it, to have been pretty well received and have opened a number of interesting debatuing point - we await the final version with interest

It also puts the Tories on the back foot and puts a bit of pressure for them to come up with something more substantive than what we have seen up to now. The Tories also have a bit of a disadvantage that they are in Government and they cannot go back on what they have been doing very easily, and also there are some headwinds coming that have been of their own making that will trigger some interesting questions - well it would if the media bothered asking them (the Carny warnings above being an example)

As to the (totally expected) criticism of the leadership not being able to sell these policies - well that may or may not be the case. One thing I can be fairly sure of is that any of the other leadership candidates we have seen recently would no way have been as bold as to actually produce a Labour manifesto that doesn't end up trying to follow the Tory agenda....the reports were that this is close to the manifesto that Miliband would have liked to present - but didn't. Luckily the current leadership is able to ignore the Grima Wormtongues in the party that are always so reticent to put some clear and fundamental distance between Labour and the Tories.

If Corbyn leaves a legacy that allows Labour to defend a position that only 20 years ago would have been considered pretty mainstream then I, for one, will thank him

This manifesto is not 'hard left', it is pretty run of the mill moderate left socialism and chalelnges the move to a US style low tax, low public service and unequal society

[SpinningHugo]

So the policies coming out of Labour seem, on the face of it, to have been pretty well received and have opened a number of interesting debatuing point - we await the final version with interest

It also puts the Tories on the back foot and puts a bit of pressure for them to come up with something more substantive than what we have seen up to now. The Tories also have a bit of a disadvantage that they are in Government and they cannot go back on what they have been doing very easily, and also there are some headwinds coming that have been of their own making that will trigger some interesting questions - well it would if the media bothered asking them (the Carny warnings above being an example)

As to the (totally expected) criticism of the leadership not being able to sell these policies - well that may or may not be the case. One thing I can be fairly sure of is that any of the other leadership candidates we have seen recently would no way have been as bold as to actually produce a Labour manifesto that doesn't end up trying to follow the Tory agenda....the reports were that this is close to the manifesto that Miliband would have liked to present - but didn't. Luckily the current leadership is able to ignore the Grima Wormtongues in the party that are always so reticent to put some clear and fundamental distance between Labour and the Tories.

If Corbyn leaves a legacy that allows Labour to defend a position that only 20 years ago would have been considered pretty mainstream then I, for one, will thank him

This manifesto is not 'hard left', it is pretty run of the mill moderate left socialism and chalelnges the move to a US style low tax, low public service and unequal society

The problem with the policy package is the same as with Ed M. Free ponies are popular. So, promise free tuition, cheap rail and electricity, free continuing education, massive boosts to health spending etc etc, tat will all be popular.

Who doesn't like a free pony?

The problem is, voters don't trust those promising free ponies.

Blair explained this on 9 May 2015

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... d-miliband" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"f we’re going for the centre strategically, be careful of an accumulation of policies, even if individually popular, that, taken together, contradict that strategy and send us too far left. "

At least, it might be said, Corbyn is open about not pursuing that strategy.

That said, the Tories seem to be offering a combination of price fixing, fox killing and grammar schools. Not much appeal to me either.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Just bobbing by.

Re: Water

Completely agree.

I suspect it's not there simply because the work hasn't been done. Labour had their energy plan ready to dust down and it's 100% safe because the Tories have nicked it.

Railways too. It's been done (and undone) with East Coast so it's obvious how to do it.

But I don't recall any plans for water. Probably it's best not to do a back of an envelope during this unexpected campaign.

[howsillyofme1]

Labour shouldn't be looking at the 'centre' as it is now. The centre is far to the right of where it was before 2010!

Labour policies are left of centre.....compared to 2017 definitions. Compared to 97 they aren't particularly