Saturday 20th & Sunday 21st May 2017

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 9:22 am

As ever with Tory policies struggling with concept of "unintended consequences",when obvious.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 21 May, 2017 9:39 am

Arguably the really telling thing in the YouGov poll is Labour that close even with UKIP on just 3%.

But no, I am NOT getting carried away - a Tory victory remains almost certain, a majority over 50 highly likely.

Still, maybe this election campaign doesn't most resemble 1983, or 2001, or even 1931 after all. Perhaps it is 1987.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 21 May, 2017 9:48 am

The Tory campaign is unbelievably bad.

1. Social care. A terrible policy proposal guaranteed to piss off a huge chunk of voters.

2. Other than that, what? Fox hunting. Grammar schools. No triple lock. Cuts to winter fuel.

3. Labour's proposals aren't very credible, but are at least popular.

Really odd. Bizarrely bad.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 9:56 am

As I said previously,like a four year old attempt and level of comprehension,wasn't expecting full details by any means.Is it contempt/casual.disregard we are going to win anyway or stupidity,probably a mixture of all three.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 10:44 am

Damian Green knows as much about social care as the benefit system,not in a good way.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 10:50 am

Deeply worrying further aspect,are DLA/PIP/CA now under universal threat.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 21 May, 2017 10:51 am

"Brexit and the coming food crisis: ‘If you can’t feed a country, you haven’t got a country’"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -labour-eu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pushed for a number of permits required, Wright suggests “around half a million”. Hard-line Brexiters, committed to an end to the free movement of labour, might well find this unpalatable. Indeed, one of the big food-sector bodies told me they received off-the-record calls from civil servants warning them to shut up, because they had been quoted in newspapers talking about the seriousness of the labour supply to the food chain. “We were told we would just enrage the hard-line Brexiteers,” a member of the body told me.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 10:52 am

"More people need care,that's why we changed it"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 10:53 am

Worrying to me,clarification,views differ.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 10:55 am

Just Green's previous "error",on CA got me thinking.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 11:15 am

HindleA wrote:@Willow,we have had two weeks of leafletting/activity locally,national pack stuff arrived last week.

Thanks for the response. So it's just us then, which is less concerning. Won't shift Rees-Mogg, after all. Our local Labour councillors have been out and about a bit, I saw them outside the local school, just no mail shots through the door yet, which is unusual. We've had two Tory and two Libdem ones so far and a visit to the village by Rees-Mogg. He's going to win by a country mile, I fear. I had hoped at one point that his majority could be dented a little by a Libdem comeback, but that's not looking very likely now. I've seen no election posters or placards out locally for anyone yet and generally the election seems to be passing us by here. I miss being a "marginal".

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 11:41 am

I am in one,would rather not be,still very much discombobulated by Tory leaflet attack disturbing my peaceful Saturday morning walk around my estate.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 11:56 am

Hope for the best:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... mian-green" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Conservatives appear to have fallen back in the polls amid a growing backlash over the impact of May’s manifesto on older people, who are a key demographic in the party’s support.

The gap between the Tories and Labour has narrowed over the last week, according to four polls released this weekend, with YouGov for the Sunday Times showing only a nine-percentage-point lead for May’s party.

Expect the worst:

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/20/ne ... more-21610" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

New poll analysis: Watson, Skinner and Flint facing defeat. Cooper, Miliband, Reeves and Rayner on the edge

Strife under May. I've ordered the hearse

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Sun 21 May, 2017 11:57 am

Torygraph stories at their worst I see. Let us bring discord, etc. etc.
The bastards will win of course, and we will all know why.
Make no bones, it wouldn't matter who the opposition, it will always be destroy destrooy.
Its what they do.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sun 21 May, 2017 12:06 pm

Labour up in the polls, and the smears are starting up again; I expect we shall have a few posted here by the usual suspects. I just saw a picture of my (formerly politically apathetic) ex in a Labour shirt out canvassing in Liverpool and then at Corbyn's rally - this isn't 1983. If the PLP had harnessed this instead of allowing the scabs to to undermine and dictate the narrative, the result wouldnt be in question.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 21 May, 2017 12:10 pm

Even our resident anti-Corbynites would struggle to say that Labour Unhinged "analysis" is anything other than risible.

Ignore it, but not before you have had a good laugh at it first

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sun 21 May, 2017 12:14 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even our resident anti-Corbynites would struggle to say that Labour Unhinged "analysis" is anything other than risible.

Ignore it, but not before you have had a good laugh at it first

Oh, I think we all know they like risible smears with no basis in fact, and then running away rather than defending their repugnant comments.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 12:40 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Even our resident anti-Corbynites would struggle to say that Labour Unhinged "analysis" is anything other than risible.

Ignore it, but not before you have had a good laugh at it first

Here's hoping.

It's just that personally I can't see any reasons at all why the average person would vote Tory under any circumstances, yet they often do, so I really can't discount anything, because people are completely barking in their political opinions much of the time and although no one's talking about it anymore, I suspect a large chunk of voters are still desperate to get their country back and that means voting Theresa 'lunch snatcher' May on June 8th. She's definitely put her foot in it with this social care thing and I'm more optimistic than I was, but the lack of a Libdem comeback, the collapse of Labour support in Brexit heartlands and only the merest hint of Labour recovery in Scotland points to a very difficult electoral landscape for the Reds. We could well lose some good MPs, even if the picture is more mixed and less uniformly bleak than the Uncut article suggests.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 21 May, 2017 12:47 pm

I fear that to make the "dementia tax" more "fair", the Conservatives will justify their actions by charging people for care that falls within the NHS remit.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 12:55 pm

Well 11% of votes has mysteriously disappeared from my constituency Labour uncut 2017 predictions,presumably to the Greens.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:00 pm

There are some wankers in the Labour Party who seem to be looking with joy at the possibility of a Labour defeat - there were predictions of 20% vote not so long ago and now things are looking a bit better they are now changing tack. The analyses are crude and based on some rather optimistic assumptions

One thing that has been apparent is the lack of discussion of Brexit in this campaign - apart from the Strong and Stable nonsense - the LD have really struggled and their supporters are seeing the focus on it as a serious error. If Labour had voted against A50 I do not think that it is unreasonable to say that more would have been made of it.

I would suggest people remember that a week before the US election there were stories coming out that Clinton was targeting Texas as a possible flip to the Democrats - didn't work out like that did it?

To get the Tories into the 40% and above you are in Thatcher territory and people who have never voted Tory before (up to 20% perhaps) will need to do so - I would be skeptical if these voters were anything but soft and could easily switch or stay at home. I am not sure how the pollsters models can cope with these type of voters - we will see I guess

The more the Tory campaign makes the mistakes they have done in the last week the more they will potentially turn off these voters - and if they respond with personal attacks on Corbyn I am not sure how much traction they will have now if they haven't already

I would not be surprised to see a margin not too far off 2015, although the seat tallies might be different due to 'swing' voters in the Midlands and suburban North - these swing voters in these types of seats emphasise the weakness of FPTP - in the end these often venal and selfish voters determine the Government - whilst a large number of others are essentially disenfranchised.

Whatever happens, and I am making no predictions for 2017 because it could go anyway to be honest, I feel that if Labour can maintain discipline post the election then there may be a basis for hope in 2022 - the Tory manifesto is useless, the leader has shown herself to be anything but competent and actually comes across as pretty controlling and sinister. We then have the joy of Brexit to come I also do not expect Corbyn to be leader in 2022 but hope that his successor comes from the more radical part of the party and is not a throwback to 2010

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:04 pm

PF it is debateable at the moment ie blurred,one way to better integrate is indeed just charge the refusetodieniks before strong economy status is achieved anyway.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:14 pm

Good points about "after."

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:19 pm

If some of the people who are now saying they would vote Labour had done so earlier, May would not have called this election. We would have been going to the polls in 2020, not 2022, just a year after Brexit and too early for May to have set our post-Brexit relationship with the EU in stone. She has most probably bought herself a couple of extra years and a bigger majority out of Labour's recent unpopularity. Whoever you choose to blame, it is undoubtedly a fact that the EU referendum has been as disastrous for Labour as the Scottish one was.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:22 pm

People differently to be fair,so not necessarily "joy",I joke about Tory encroachment and being left with a four foot square oasis and declaration of Socialist Republic,I am not particularly happy at the prospect.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:32 pm

I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:32 pm

Nyta Mann, you should be ashamed of yourself.

But I somehow doubt it.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 21 May, 2017 1:38 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all

Apart from, you know, being the right thing to do.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:30 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all
Apart from, you know, being the right thing to do.

IN YOUR OPINION.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:32 pm

Of course by far the best way to ensure "those that need it" get it,is precisely the method the Tories have abandoned.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:32 pm

In my opinion.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:33 pm

According to facts,evidence and boring stuff like that

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:37 pm

Rather cynical juxtaposition IMHO.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:42 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all
Apart from, you know, being the right thing to do.
IN YOUR OPINION.

"That is just, soooo your opinion."

Who elses were you expecting.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:49 pm

Dear Labour Party,I have already sold my house and possessions,apart from my kindle,I am sitting in a homeless shelter salivating over a potnoodle,I have nothing left to donate.

Regards.

Post by **refitman** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:51 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
IN YOUR OPINION.

"That is just, soooo your opinion."

Who elses were you expecting.

You have to admit, this is a bit of a trademark of yours, presenting your own opinion as fact.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:53 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all

Corbyn's post-EU referendum approach has clearly not been popular or else how come Theresa May felt confident enough to call a snap election? I have no real idea of the effectiveness of other approaches, I'm just pointing out the actual approach was lacking somewhere. The Tories are now attempting to capitalise on that and Labour are being forced to play catch up. The big problem for Labour (and us) is that only by stopping a Tory majority can they now achieve a situation that isn't worse than where we are now and as such those poor earlier ratings which prompted a snap election are likely to prove very costly. Some of the policies the Tories are managing to piggy back Brexit fever with are truly horrendous and because they're in the manifesto, their lack of a Lords majority will no longer be an issue. So unless Labour can pull off a truly miraculous result (and I do hope for the best, whatever the odds) I can only see very dark times ahead, I'm afraid, and it all started with some of the worst polling for Labour since 2010.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 2:59 pm

Terrible grammar,indisputable fact.
Agree though,less aggressive,I am making a determined effort other people should too.IMHO.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:01 pm

Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all
Corbyn's post-EU referendum approach has clearly not been popular or else how come Theresa May felt confident enough to call a snap election? I have no real idea of the effectiveness of other approaches, I'm just pointing out the actual approach was lacking somewhere. The Tories are now attempting to capitalise on that and Labour are being forced to play catch up. The big problem for Labour (and us) is that only by stopping a Tory majority can they now achieve a situation that isn't worse than where we are now and as such those poor earlier ratings which prompted a snap election are likely to prove very costly. Some of the policies the Tories are managing to piggy back Brexit fever with are truly horrendous and because they're in the manifesto, their lack of a Lords majority will no longer be an issue. So unless Labour can pull off a truly miraculous result (and I do hope for the best, whatever the odds) I can only see very dark times ahead, I'm afraid, and it all started with some of the worst polling for Labour since 2010.

Why is everything about the EU Referendum?

How do you know his approach is not popular - it isn't with you but it is with me!

The likelihood is more that May's approach to a hard line with EU and getting on with it is actually the most popular line to take.

Labour should not speak in the extreme language that she has but at the same time have accepted that Brexit will happen - signified by trying to amend, but in the end accepting that A50 went ahead

I see absolutely no evidence that taking a very pro-EU stance has any votes in it - you could argue the moral case as you have before but I do not agree with that either I am afraid

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:09 pm

Always thought the pensioner/working age thing rather than continued residualisation/deuniversalition/retreat of State reciprocity was/is a bad idea,playing the iterative reduction "fairness" game is how they do it.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:14 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all
Corbyn's post-EU referendum approach has clearly not been popular or else how come Theresa May felt confident enough to call a snap election? I have no real idea of the effectiveness of other approaches, I'm just pointing out the actual approach was lacking somewhere. The Tories are now attempting to capitalise on that and Labour are being forced to play catch up. The big problem for Labour (and us) is that only by stopping a Tory majority can they now achieve a situation that isn't worse than where we are now and as such those poor earlier ratings which prompted a snap election are likely to prove very costly. Some of the policies the Tories are managing to piggy back Brexit fever with are truly horrendous and because they're in the manifesto, their lack of a Lords majority will no longer be an issue. So unless Labour can pull off a truly miraculous result (and I do hope for the best, whatever the odds) I can only see very dark times ahead, I'm afraid, and it all started with some of the worst polling for Labour since 2010.

Why is everything about the EU Referendum?

How do you know his approach is not popular - it isn't with you but it is with me!

The likelihood is more that May's approach to a hard line with EU and getting on with it is actually the most popular line to take.

Labour should not speak in the extreme language that she has but at the same time have accepted that Brexit will happen - signified by trying to amend, but in the end accepting that A50 went ahead

I see absolutely no evidence that taking a very pro-EU stance has any votes in it - you could argue the moral case as you have before but I do not agree with that erither I am afraid

Because everything else is dwarfed by it.

So, all those Labour spending pledges?

All more than eaten by the direct government costs of Brexit.

Brexit is a low salience issue because people don't understand it's significance.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:15 pm

refitman wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
IN YOUR OPINION.

"That is just, soooo your opinion."

Who elses were you expecting.
You have to admit, this is a bit of a trademark of yours, presenting your own opinion as fact.

That is just one opinion. Others are available.

(ie everybody does this all the time.)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:17 pm

No not everybody

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:18 pm

You really are a patronising twat aren't you? It is a pity you don't actually read things but I suppose your ego is too big for that

The discussion is about the electoral merits of various ways of approaching Brexit

Brexit is happening - it was decided on June 23rd and in May 2015......

A Labour Government will deal with this better than a Tory one, despite being dealt a crap hand. That, though, is not the discussion

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:23 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -manifesto" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Boris Johnson has suggested Theresa May promised to give the NHS an extra £350m a week at the launch of the Conservative party manifesto, when neither she nor the document made any such promise.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:23 pm

Asked on ITV’s Peston on Sunday why the sum was not in the manifesto, Johnson said: “It is. It is. Theresa May, she said it at the launch of the manifesto … She said we are going to take back control.”

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 3:39 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I personally think the EU referendum was a godsend for the Tory vote as they completely took over UKIP - there may have been a couple of % drift from Labour too but the big change was the +10% the Tories got afterwards

In that sense you could say it was a 'disaster for Labour' but a lot of that was self-inflicted - a large amount of the blame for that goes to the PLP

I have seen no indication that voting against A50 and making Brexit a plank of the campaign would have helped at all
Corbyn's post-EU referendum approach has clearly not been popular or else how come Theresa May felt confident enough to call a snap election? I have no real idea of the effectiveness of other approaches, I'm just pointing out the actual approach was lacking somewhere. The Tories are now attempting to capitalise on that and Labour are being forced to play catch up. The big problem for Labour (and us) is that only by stopping a Tory majority can they now achieve a situation that isn't worse than where we are now and as such those poor earlier ratings which prompted a snap election are likely to prove very costly. Some of the policies the Tories are managing to piggy back Brexit fever with are truly horrendous and because they're in the manifesto, their lack of a Lords majority will no longer be an issue. So unless Labour can pull off a truly miraculous result (and I do hope for the best, whatever the odds) I can only see very dark times ahead, I'm afraid, and it all started with some of the worst polling for Labour since 2010.

Why is everything about the EU Referendum?

How do you know his approach is not popular - it isn't with you but it is with me!

The likelihood is more that May's approach to a hard line with EU and getting on with it is actually the most popular line to take.

Labour should not speak in the extreme language that she has but at the same time have accepted that Brexit will happen - signified by trying to amend, but in the end accepting that A50 went ahead

I see absolutely no evidence that taking a very pro-EU stance has any votes in it - you could argue the moral case as you have before but I do not agree with that either I am afraid

I suggest Corbyn's approach has not been popular, because so few people were indicating they were willing to vote Labour when the focus was on Brexit. With the election and successful move onto other topics away from Brexit (clearly always Labour's best bet) we've seen Labour's position improve. If Labour hold on in remain areas but collapse in leave areas, it could point to their ambivalence towards soft Brexit having contributed to the dip in support that led to the calling of a snap election. If Labour do better in leave areas than expected, then Corbyn's approach looks justified. Either way, though, the early election is a negative for those on the left, unless the Tories are prevented from forming a majority. I really can't see it as anything but a disaster I'm afraid. The social care thing may have narrowed the polls, but unless Labour win, we're stuck with this horrendous policy regardless. Hence my gloom today. As I said from the start, it's the Tory manifesto I'm interested in because that's the one we're likely to end up with and it's truly awful. So I'm sorry, but perky optimism about 2022 is really going to wind me up right now because we've got 5 long years of absolute shit to wade through first before we get there, when just a few weeks ago we only had 3 years before a genuine opportunity to turn things around.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sun 21 May, 2017 4:01 pm

I really fail to see where Labour would get Remain votes from to be honest

LD are in the doldrums and running at around 8%....Greens at 2%....you think Labour would attract Tory Remainers?

Is there any evidence - surely if they were that bothered then they would go for the LD at least?

Perhaps you should turn some of your frustrations on those that attempted a botched coup last Summer! I am sure that did not help either

Post by **refitman** » Sun 21 May, 2017 4:09 pm

Everyone seen Corbyn at the Libertines gig?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 21 May, 2017 4:16 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:I really fail to see where Labour would get Remain votes from to be honest

LD are in the doldrums and running at around 8%....Greens at 2%....you think Labour would attract Tory Remainers?

Is there any evidence - surely if they were that bothered then they would go for the LD at least?

Perhaps you should turn some of your frustrations on those that attempted a botched coup last Summer! I am sure that did not help either

So you think the recent rise for Labour in the polls came from leave voters predominantly?

I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying at all. Never mind. It's too late now, anyway. Which is why I'm so grumpy. Just ignore me.