Friday 26th May 2017

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:02 pm

Please keep Diane Abbott quiet for at least the next few weeks.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:05 pm

This "coalition of chaos". I've got to show my ignorance and ask - coalition with whom?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:09 pm

PorFavor wrote:
The Times says its YouGov poll (see 11.07am), if replicated at a general election, would give the Conservatives a majority of just two.

Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chairman who is now a polling specialist, is running a model based on multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP (don’t ask.) He says his model now implies a majority of 142. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Um...bit of a difference there

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:13 pm

Willow904 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
The Times says its YouGov poll (see 11.07am), if replicated at a general election, would give the Conservatives a majority of just two.

Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chairman who is now a polling specialist, is running a model based on multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP (don’t ask.) He says his model now implies a majority of 142. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Um...bit of a difference there

Yes. But the multilevel regression and poststratification accounts for much of it.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:20 pm

I've no idea what coalition T May is referring to
I doubt she does either
Encourage everyone to vote
It's the only poll that matters

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:30 pm

18:13

We return to a question about the polls: May called the election to increase her majority, is she now fighting for her job?

She repeats that it is “me and my team” offering “strong and stable leadership” against a “coalition of chaos” under Corbyn and the SNP. (Politics Live, Guardian)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:37 pm

The coalition is one between Jeremy Corbyn and the SNP, apparently. Do they know?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:44 pm

May's campaigning sounds delusional

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:51 pm

"Theresa May accuses Jeremy Corbyn of saying that terror attacks in the UK is the country’s own fault in the aftermath of the Manchester attack. Speaking at the G7 summit in Sicily on Friday, she says ‘there can be no excuse for what happened’"

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Latest from May
I called her campaigning delusional before I saw this
What she's said here regarding Corbyn is ugly and false

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 26 May, 2017 6:56 pm

Please pay no attention to Ashcroft, he's just trolling us all now.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 7:09 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Please pay no attention to Ashcroft, he's just trolling us all now.

Life is difficult enough without Ashcroft's trolling
I don't like him or his party at all

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 7:23 pm

Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour Party, speaking at a speech in central London today...
May 26, 2017

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1610893 ... byn-speech

It's a good speech
Theresa May isn't telling the truth

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 7:44 pm

Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

This is what some political journalists and commentators are saying about the interview on Twitter.

The general consensus is that he came over pretty well, with quite a few people thinking he was better than Theresa May when she faced Andrew Neil on Monday. (Politics Live, Guardian)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:03 pm

re the above

Robert Harris‏ @Robert___Harris 35m35 minutes ago
More
I have no time for Corbyn but he was much more impressive with @afneil than the Prime minister

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:09 pm

gilsey wrote:The IFS are standing in for the BBC on this, imo, presumably wishing to appear impartial. To pretend that the manifestos are equally rubbish in economic terms is doing Labour a great injustice.

Sorry I had to delete your second comment because of PfY's nesting rule!

A shortfall of tax revenues against current spending wouldn't be a problem for a year or two, so badly do we need that fiscal stimulus. Here's an alternative view.
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/ ... -telescope" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hi Gilsey and all. I can easily remove the three nest restriction if you ask. It was introduced during the quotathon era. Just let me know

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:22 pm

MrHindle

you have been deleting posts again so this is a reply to a post that doesn't even exist anymore just to confuse people

So do I.....it can be coherent sometimes but at other times it just confuses....ho hum

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:22 pm

This season,didn'turn out as expected a few weeks ago.Just shows you,you never can tell.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:23 pm

Another tactic,post,leave for a bit,delete.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:27 pm

HindleA wrote:Another tactic,post,leave for a bit,delete.

To draw in the foolish....like it! Good tactic

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:34 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... orget-them" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 8:46 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... P=soc_3156" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Martin Rowson on the cost of UK foreign policy – cartoon

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:02 pm

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:04 pm

@citizenJA

Night night.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:12 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... orget-them

Good article.

Wish a journalist would ask May if she"s proud of her government's cuts to bereavement allowance in light of recent events.
A real commitment to supporting all families hit by tragedy, all of the time, is the least anyone in power moved by such sad events could offer. But instead such support faces deeper and deeper cuts under May's Tories.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:18 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

This is what some political journalists and commentators are saying about the interview on Twitter.

The general consensus is that he came over pretty well, with quite a few people thinking he was better than Theresa May when she faced Andrew Neil on Monday. (Politics Live, Guardian)

To be fair, May set the bar so low it was practically subterranean. She was terrible.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:23 pm

I said when the election was announced that May had no experience of running a big campaign, didn't even have to fight for the leadership, and the people around her were not the same experienced campaigners (at a strategic level) who got Gideon and the Pig Fucker elected - however nefariously.

I also pointed out that Corbyn had gone through two pretty brutal leadership campaigns and if nothing else was quite used t o spending his summers on the trail, and his team had been hardened by those two fights.

Those Andrew Neil interviews sort of demonstrate the point. Unelectable, my fat hairy arse.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:29 pm

Well,would have personally gained by the change,a tad,but those with children hammered;which is fucking stupid,given I had only me to worry about,but of course it is the way they play their attempted divisive and cynically deployed shit,apparently this was essential because a refusetodienik just above pension credit receives WFP,or something like it,hopefully more being are less willing to accept/play.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:30 pm

Willow904 wrote:@gilsey

I don't particularly disagree. The general thrust of government spending from Labour is better than further Tory shrinking of the state, I just feel the Labour commitment to not tax anyone on less than £80,000 a year ignores both just how much Osborne has already depleted our tax base through tax cuts and just how much our tax revenues are likely to fall further due to Brexit.

My point is a broad one, really, about how both manifestos have been drawn up based on now when we know with so much more certainty than usual that all the assumptions they are based on are on the cusp of changing quite significantly. It's always true, circumstances always change, hence the impossibility of manifesto promises being anything more than hopeful pledges, it's just this time it feels extra false and I'm left wondering what either party will really do.

As for fiscal stimulus, our country's benefit system kicks in during a downturn in the economy, hence creating that stimulus - the automatic stabilizers. Osborne undermined their impact with benefit freezes, the benefit freezes I have been grumbling about because Labour seem to have forgotten to reverse quite a lot of them, something which is vitally important with Brexit looming and threatening to push us into recession. Corbyn's manifesto is good with big ideas, but ignores the huge damage done by Osborne's tax cuts for middle and higher middle earners and by benefit cuts for the poorest and the urgent need to reverse both. Bear in mind, a rise in NMW leads to a drop in tax credits, so families in particular won't feel the full benefit of this policy unless tax credits are made more generous again, so forgetting to reverse tax credit cuts feels like a real oversight from Labour. And not asking above average earners who were net winners under Osborne to contribute a bit more just feels a bit cowardly, although probably electorally smart.

Re benefits, I saw an interview with McDonnell where he was pressed about the benefits freeze and wouldn't be drawn, said they would review it. I'd be happy if that means they're going to take a good hard look at UC.
Currently the worst hardships are coming from WCA, sanctions, benefit cap, bedroom tax, waiting periods, all of which I think they've said they'll act on?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:31 pm

Judging by the furious tweeting going on by the usual suspects this evening, I'd say they were really rattled - especially by that last poll.

It's all very amusing...

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:45 pm

Much appreciation to Tem for conjuring up the image.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:48 pm

Though,the freezing of benefits is particularly pernicious ,especially to those that cannot escape the effects of.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:53 pm

A piece on school funding. Jump to 4:10 to see what one of the DfE's favourites comes out with.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... s-26052017" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, that's precisely what the DfE are saying - be more efficient and everything will be fine.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 26 May, 2017 9:55 pm

Just one local council byelection this week:

Southend-on-Sea - Independent hold, though on a fairly low share of 37% with the Tories not that far behind. The winner here had actually been the last Labour councillor elected for this ward when it split 2Con/1Lab in the all-out elections of 2001, but they were ruled ineligible on that occasion and the Tories won the by-election a few months later. They then strengthened their grip until Independent candidates started to emerge as a force in the middle of that decade - they finally broke through in 2008 and have won 4 of the 6 regular elections since then, Tories only breaking their dominance in the GE-concurrent polls of 2010 and 2015 (and the latter result, at least, was still close) Though the Indy share was actually up on the winning candidate's last May, two of them polled significantly large votes then so their overall share was "down" quite a bit - not just to the benefit of the Tories (up 10%) but Labour who advanced by over 6%, though at 16% they are still some way short of the levels of support they once enjoyed here. UKIP have only stood here on two occasions (2010 and 2016) and their 5% now was more than halved since last year; they just pipped the LibDems who actually improved slightly on recent showings. Greens last with 2%, little changed since a year ago but more than halved since the last GE day.

That is it until the big day, the first contests afterwards are on 22 June. Who knows how things might look by then?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 10:00 pm

Thankyou AK.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 10:06 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ish-values" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 10:16 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2017/m ... de-of-hope" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"The Brexit propaganda worked very well and then the propaganda guys vanished like a fart in the Sahara"

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 10:22 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ish-values

Thanks for that.

It's given me the courage to break cover and ask if anyone else felt that the Quing's hospital visit conversations had a touch of the "Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln-s" about them.

I do, however, sincerely hope that the visit helped - and I'm pleased for those involved if it did.

Edited - typo

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 26 May, 2017 10:34 pm

Night night.

I've been in bed almost solidly for the past few days (worst cold I've ever had). So I'm probably over-rested\slept. I may make a reappearance . . .

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 10:39 pm

Sorry to hear,I have a cold as well and hold you responsible,though.Not sure if your last sentence is a threat/warning or a promise.Drink plenty..and not only gin.

Post by **refitman** » Fri 26 May, 2017 11:05 pm

Kris G-M has made Fallon look like even more of an arse.

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HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 11:15 pm

Fallon Arse.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 26 May, 2017 11:49 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ds-critics" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 27 May, 2017 3:06 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... 2t4pcgbjpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Britain’s small businesses overwhelmingly reject Tory manifesto