Bank Holiday Weekend, 27th, 28th & 29th May 2017

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 28 May, 2017 11:47 am

Mind you I've had a few personalised letters from the PM - Tories clearly not targeting *that* well

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:09 pm

Good morfternoon.

It occurs to me - are the Conservatives keen for young people (who they're, apparently, very concerned about helping at the moment) to get their "foot on the property ladder" because, if they don't, there'll be a shortage of properties for the government to get their hands on (social care)? Otherwise, the government will, quite soon, run out of other people's assets.

Edited - typo

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:22 pm

In other polling news, a new Scottish survey has the SNP dipping below 40 per cent - and SLab up to 25.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:45 pm

Amber Rudd to represent Tories in BBC general election debate

Home secretary to take part in programme with party leaders after Theresa May refuses to face cameras

Labour has yet to confirm who it will send to take part in the BBC election debate in Cambridge between 7.30pm and 9pm on Wednesday 31 May. (Guardian)

I hope that's not a ploy to get Labour to send Diane Abbott.

(The linked article comes with a free bonus photo' of a Theresa May grimace.)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ers-debate

Edited - tidy up

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:45 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... al-ratings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
• 37% of voters have lower opinion of prime minister than at start of month
• 39% have more positive view of Labour leader, says Observer/Opinium research

Post by **refitman** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:46 pm

Fallon being a muppet again, this time on Peston.

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tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:53 pm

Ben Chu:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bre ... 60026.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Theresa's May's 'no deal is better than a bad deal' Brexit logic could end up destroying the British economy

After Theresa May originally used the 'no deal' formulation in January, many pointed out its foolishness, its lack of realism. And she stopped using it for a time. So why is it now in the Conservative manifesto? Is it because she's afraid the hardliners in her party might topple her?

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Sun 28 May, 2017 12:54 pm

refitman wrote:Fallon being a muppet again, this time on Peston.
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This campaign needs more Fallon

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 1:09 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 1:48 pm

Theresa May's high-handed refusal to take part in GE debates
It's not something a candidate seeking democratic election should refuse
She called the election
The presumption she's taking is offensive

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Sun 28 May, 2017 1:53 pm

Assessing the manifestos - the IFS fails the test
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/ ... s-the-test" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A rather more strongly worded critique.

The IFS credibility for sober analysis suffered an own-goal on 26 May during its non-rigorous and biased assessment of the party manifestos. A defender might argue that criticism of both the Conservative and Labour made the event “even-handed”. However, the central message was that expenditure exceeding revenue is irresponsible, an ideological position that parrots the propaganda of the Conservative Party.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Sun 28 May, 2017 2:09 pm

I was in two minds about linking this, too depressing for words.
Brexiters in denial: we didn't mean 'that' or 'you'
http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co. ... -that.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don’t think that these things are necessarily to do with the idea that Britain can ‘cherrypick’ some parts of the EU that they like, and it is more subtle than simply rejecting warnings as 'project Fear'. Rather, what underlies such sentiments is two related things. One is a taking for granted of the familiar accoutrements of modern life without realising that they are the product of extensive, albeit largely invisible, institutional arrangements. So of course ‘nowadays’ planes fly us to wherever we want without restrictions, as if this were not the outcome of complex agreements such as the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA), and ‘of course’ we can travel visa-free in Europe, as if that were not the outcome of freedom of movement rights. In some ways, Brexiters, who despise Euro technocrats and bureaucrats and rail against extra-national decision making, also treat it as an act of nature that there are Europe-wide regulatory systems which, on Brexit, British citizens will still have available to them.

From this mixture of lack of realism about EU institutions, symbolic understanding of leaving, and dishonesty about the consequences of leaving flows a great danger. As the realities of what Brexit means kick in, the leaver mindset that leaving ‘didn’t mean that’ or ‘shouldn’t mean that’ or ‘needn’t mean that’ is morphing into a belief that ‘the EU is making it mean something that it doesn’t, or shouldn’t or needn’t’. So whereas a rational response would be to say that by voting to leave leavers have chosen the consequences, what is emerging is the punishment narrative that Brexiters are already beginning to deploy to avoid taking responsibility for the consequences of their decision.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Sun 28 May, 2017 2:40 pm

Corbyn should turn up for the leaders debate. It would humiliate May having Rudd there. I get the rationale of not appearing, but think the risk is worth the gain.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:38 pm

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/2 ... n-10266121" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
ComRes: Con 46%, Lab 34%. Tory lead falls from 18 to 12 points (below)
Opinium: Con 45%, Lab 33%. Tory lead falls from 19 to 10 points (below)
ORB: Con 44%, Lab 38%. Tory lead falls from 12 to 6 points (below)
YouGov: Con 43%, Lab 36%. Tory lead rises from 5 to 7 points
ICM: Con 46%, Lab 32%. Tory lead unchanged at 14 points

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:40 pm

https://www.farminguk.com/news/Farmers- ... 46556.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Farmers ‘should prepare for loss’ of farming support post-Brexit

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:43 pm

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/business/b ... ers-in-eu/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Robert Bourns, president of the Law Society, also told the Press Association he fears for English and Welsh law firms that do not have an EU presence and the longer term future of the £25.7 billion sector, which employs 380,000 people.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:45 pm

Temulkar wrote:Corbyn should turn up for the leaders debate. It would humiliate May having Rudd there. I get the rationale of not appearing, but think the risk is worth the gain.

I'm tending that way, too.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:57 pm

Good thread - including the fallacy that reducing corporation tax rates is automatically a good thing.

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AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:58 pm

Temulkar wrote:Corbyn should turn up for the leaders debate. It would humiliate May having Rudd there. I get the rationale of not appearing, but think the risk is worth the gain.

Yes, the fact there is a Tory this time changes the calculus significantly.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 3:59 pm

@gilsey

Perfectly describes the lack of understanding regarding 'Brexit' realities.
I've struggled with understanding implications of disrupting interrelated systems in place, structures built over time allowing and creating order.

One is a taking for granted of the familiar accoutrements of modern life without realising that they are the product of extensive, albeit largely invisible, institutional arrangements.
...treat it as an act of nature that there are Europe-wide regulatory systems which, on Brexit, British citizens will still have available to them.
http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co. ... -that.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If UK leadership doesn't effectively, accurately inform and protect people, we'll have problems.
If it's impossible for some accepting error or ignorance, further scapegoats will be found.

As the realities of what Brexit means kick in, the leaver mindset that leaving ‘didn’t mean that’ or ‘shouldn’t mean that’ or ‘needn’t mean that’ is morphing into a belief that ‘the EU is making it mean something that it doesn’t, or shouldn’t or needn’t’. ...punishment narrative...Brexiters...avoid taking responsibility for the consequences of their decision.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 5:18 pm

The related underlying issue is that for many Brexiters the vote to ‘take back control’, with all its emotional
resonance, was not thought about in concrete legal or institutional terms but as a kind of symbolic, feel-good act.

That, indeed, is the implication of the Brexit White Paper which affirms (para 2.1) that sovereignty was never
lost by EU membership but that “it has not always felt like that”.

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co. ... -that.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tory government deliberately portrays 'Brexit' like this, not realistically, not making the implications clear.

Department for Exiting the European Union
The United Kingdom’s exit from and new partnership with the European Union White Paper
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... n-union--2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 28 May, 2017 5:39 pm

Merkel: Europe 'can no longer rely on allies' after Trump and Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40078183

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 28 May, 2017 7:29 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... the-tories" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Somerset: where fed-up farmers are ditching the Tories

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 8:11 pm

Willow904 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... the-tories
Somerset: where fed-up farmers are ditching the Tories

Leave voting farmers apparently going to vote LibDem
I don't understand the thinking of the people interviewed

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 28 May, 2017 8:33 pm

You are making the mistake of thinking LibDem voters have ever formed a coherent bloc.

Its not nearly as strange as some think that a large chunk decamped to UKIP in the last few years (and have, in some cases, returned "back home")

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 8:55 pm

Paul Lewis

#Lots of talk abou May care U-turn. But key change remains. Value of home will be used when first of couple goes into care home. Massive.

Must admit,it was the change in charging for in own home care,(let us put to bed the nonsense recipients are not already subject to charging) as a previous selfish thief from my own generation,like many, for continuing to work for some years,giving my better half some respite from my ugly mush and atrocious bad habits;of course asset and imaginary children consumed our every thought,especially when the dialysis machine was beeping,my blood pressure going up whilst better half's going down,reaching equilibrium of sorts;that immediately leapt out,but that indeed is massive.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 9:09 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... gotiations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Judge expects update on Royal Bank of Scotland settlement negotiations

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 9:26 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... d-unstable" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Far from ‘strong and stable’, May’s economic plan is weak and unstable
Larry Elliott

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 9:29 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... -cuts-bite" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pupils at London school asked to clean their classroom as cuts bite

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 9:54 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 60691.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Two out of three people believe that Theresa May should reveal her Brexit strategy more clearly before polling day on 8 June, according to a poll for The Independent.

The survey by ORB suggests that many voters share the concerns of pro-Europeans who claim the Prime Minister is seeking a “blank cheque” to take Britain out of the EU on whatever terms she decides. Some 68 per cent of people agree that she should spell out more of her Brexit plans before the election, while 12 per cent disagree and 20 per cent neither agree nor disagree.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 28 May, 2017 10:19 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Merkel: Europe 'can no longer rely on allies' after Trump and Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40078183

Hard to overstate how big this is, coming from her. One of the founding principles of the CDU is pro-Americanism.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 28 May, 2017 10:20 pm

Dearie me...apparently Hunt was in Manchester "supervising the NHS response to the bomb". No, really...

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And the "I had to deal with the horror of what happened at Mid-Staffs" - no you didn't do that. You commissioned a public inquiry after Burnham commissioned and reported back on the first one before the 2010 election.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 28 May, 2017 10:36 pm

"Guardian understands that Labour and the Tories could not agree over whether May or Corbyn would go first in the election programme on Monday night. Sources said that a senior aide from each party agreed to meet the Sky News’ head of politics, Esme Wren, at midday on Thursday at a neutral territory in Westminster to toss a coin.

Labour won and chose for Corbyn to go first – with 22 minutes of audience questions chaired by Sky political editor Faisal Islam, starting at 8.30pm, followed by an 18-minute interrogation by Paxman. May is likely to begin her session at 9.15pm, with the pair unlikely to actually meet as they will kept apart in separate green rooms."

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 28 May, 2017 10:52 pm

Yikes!

Julia Macfarlane‏Verified account
@juliamacfarlane

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#Breaking Japan goverment spokesman says North Korean missile appears to have landed in Japan; SKorea convening emergency cabinet meeting

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 11:00 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 61006.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
North Korea has fired an "unidentified projectile" from its east coast, South Korean officials have said.

The object was aimed eastwards - in the direction of Japan and the United States - the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

President Moon Jae-in of South Korea has called an emergency meeting of the National Security Council to assess the launch.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 28 May, 2017 11:13 pm

Update:

A Japanese government spokesman confirmed the missile appeared to have landed in Japan's waters but said no damage had been caused. The launch was a "clear violation of UN resolutions" and posed a risk to ships and aeroplanes in the area, he added.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sun 28 May, 2017 11:20 pm

This is a very long read - and I mean long - but well worth the time. I don't think I have ever understood/read a better Muslim extremism digest as well as this.
The Fundamentals of Fundamentalism
The Prophetic Narrative at the Heart of Modern Jihadism

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 28 May, 2017 11:29 pm

The irony...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lasse Boehm‏Verified account
@BoehmLasse

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#Heathrow chaos so bad the Daily Mail is advising travellers how to claim compensation based on #EU law and ECJ rulings

.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 28 May, 2017 11:38 pm

Night night.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 29 May, 2017 12:06 am

PorFavor wrote:Night night.

Goodnight, PorFavor

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 29 May, 2017 12:07 am

lovely to see you, AngryAsWell

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Mon 29 May, 2017 4:44 am

A senior academic has accused the Conservatives of a "sleight of hand" over the justification of its grammar schools policy in its manifesto.
Prof Alice Sullivan challenges the party's statement that selective schools have proportionately more pupils from "ordinary working class families" than non-selective schools.
She says families in the bottom third for income have been excluded from the calculation supporting this data.
The Tories stand by their manifesto.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40043891" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"It does seem that unless they've actually tricked themselves that they believe that the bottom third of families aren't working class, or either they are stupid enough to think that they're not, that they are actually using a bit of statistical jiggery-pokery."

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 29 May, 2017 8:54 am

Morning all.

Richard Coles‏ @RevRichardColes 6m6 minutes ago
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One thing I love about General Elections is that you can call one looking like Real Madrid and three weeks later you're Tranmere Rovers.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 29 May, 2017 9:16 am

I notice the DM gunning for the BA executive who outsourced their IT to India. Woe betide any company that upsets Mail readers...

Incidentally I noticed those who jeered at the incompetent public sector for the disabling effect on their computes of the global cyber-attack, are strangely silent on the BA issue.

It's almost as if they have a fixation on the public sector and simply refuse to believe that the private sector could fuck things up...

As a major food manufacturer we had our own generating plant but always had the grid as a backup and could switch over within minutes. When that happened it was essential users only so departments that, say, issued delivery notes continued working.

I simply can't fathom how (i) a "global" power supply failure happened and (ii) where there seemed to be no disaster recovery plan in place.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Mon 29 May, 2017 10:27 am

Tory party absolutely annihilated on Victoria Live. This election is winnable.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 29 May, 2017 10:35 am

It certainly looks more winnable than it did at first.

Not least because some tory MPs are real dicks.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/t ... ar_twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just five weeks after her husband’s death, Offord said: “It’s very difficult to say to someone ‘well, you might get remarried’, but some people do get remarried.”

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 29 May, 2017 10:41 am

My real worry is that the tories will have a small overall majority, not least because there seems to be a possibility that they'll take some seats in Scotland.
This will be a disaster for May, the 1922 committee will come calling and she'll be gone in days.
Then they get a John Major type who looks much better and softens the rough edges, and the moment has gone.

The only thing is, I can't imagine who the John Major type might be, if they have one where was s/he last time?
The tories seem to be as strapped for leadership candidates as Labour.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 29 May, 2017 11:05 am

gilsey wrote:My real worry is that the tories will have a small overall majority, not least because there seems to be a possibility that they'll take some seats in Scotland.
This will be a disaster for May, the 1922 committee will come calling and she'll be gone in days.
Then they get a John Major type who looks much better and softens the rough edges, and the moment has gone.

The only thing is, I can't imagine who the John Major type might be, if they have one where was s/he last time?
The tories seem to be as strapped for leadership candidates as Labour.

Well, you sort of answered your own question.

The next few years are unlikely to be kind to whoever leads the Tories in any case.

That's why they called this election - and are so desperate to get a landslide out of it.

Its up to us - all of us - to prevent that.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 29 May, 2017 11:14 am

RIP John Noakes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40083025" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Used to love watching Blue Peter back in the days. Had all the annuals too for a while - Christmas wasn't Christmas without the latest annual as a present.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 29 May, 2017 12:30 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone