Wednesday 31st May 2017

Post by **refitman** » Wed 31 May, 2017 6:58 am

Morning all.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 31 May, 2017 7:13 am

"Theresa May losing the general election would be good for the pound, says JP Morgan"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 63596.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Conservative's commitment to hard Brexit is bad for the UK currency, so even a hung parliament could be better than a Tory majority, US bank says

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 31 May, 2017 7:27 am

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... itter-post" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Never play Scrabble with Trump

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 31 May, 2017 8:20 am

Falling value of the pound revealed as UK workers top concern

http://smallbusiness.co.uk/uk-workers-t ... s-2538772/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Top seven concerns
1. The falling value of the pound
2. Automation
3. Outsourcing
4. Brexit
5. Globalisation
6. Immigration
7. Changes to the benefits system

Strange order, for instance I'd have thought the falling pound could have been seen as an effect of brexit, and if concerned about job security then changes to the benefit system would be a higher priority, but it may just be how question was asked & results interpreted.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 9:28 am

Good-morning, everyone

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 9:31 am

Auguries bode ill for Theresa May's Tories

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 31 May, 2017 10:14 am

citizenJA wrote:Auguries bode ill for Theresa May's Tories

The milk has turned, the cookies crumbled,
the coagulation of chaos has begun,
the coalition of cheesecake, will rise up.
Theresa May has had her day, in the sun.
(me too, think I best go lie down, now)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 10:24 am

tinybgoat wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Auguries bode ill for Theresa May's Tories
The milk has turned, the cookies crumbled,
the coagulation of chaos has begun,
the coalition of cheesecake, will rise up.
Theresa May has had her day, in the sun.
(me too, think I best go lie down, now)

Baked and sponge-based cheese cake, I trust.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 10:25 am

Good morfternoon.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 10:26 am

I'll go walking a bit today, I think.
Everyone have a good day and I'll check in later.
xx
cJA

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 10:31 am

http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/24013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 31 May, 2017 10:34 am

Labour smell of poo and wee.

Seems to be where we're heading.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 11:46 am

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/ma ... t-sittings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 31 May, 2017 11:47 am

StephenDolan wrote:Labour smell of poo and wee.

Seems to be where we're heading.

Just like two years ago, then.

On that occasion, though, the Tories had something to hang it on - "you will be held to ransom by SCARY SCOTS!" - which cut through to many floating voters.

(assisted, of course, by the "left-liberal BBC" making that its lead story ALMOST EVERY F***ING DAY of the campaign)

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 31 May, 2017 11:55 am

StephenDolan wrote:Labour smell of poo and wee.

Seems to be where we're heading.

Desperation is never a good look.

There was a lesson in the EURef campaign, one of the reasons Remain lost because there was no positive message, it was all Project Fear. This tory campaign is the same over again, but Labour have confounded them by offering people a bit of hope.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 11:58 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:Labour smell of poo and wee.

Seems to be where we're heading.
Just like two years ago, then.

On that occasion, though, the Tories had something to hang it on - "you will be held to ransom by SCARY SCOTS!" - which cut through to many floating voters.

(assisted, of course, by the "left-liberal BBC" making that its lead story ALMOST EVERY F***ING DAY of the campaign)

That the polls were all in agreement that Labour were headed for coalition territory helped that narrative in 2015, of course. Unlike now....oh, hang on....

Am I being too cynical? Probably, but the talk has turned very quickly to hung parliaments given we've only had, what, 1 or 2 polls that put Labour closer to the Tories than last time, just as postal voting has started. There is going to be some volatility and a few upsets by the looks of it, but the SNP will remain dominant in Scotland, the Tories will remain dominant in the south and south west and Labour will remain dominant in London. Local elections suggest the Tories could take Labour seats in the north, but where might Labour take Tory seats? Answer that and I'll start taking a hung parliament seriously.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:16 pm

The local elections were better for the Tories than the current polls are, and even then there weren't *that* many nailed-on gains in evidence.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:19 pm

Ballsy move to attend tonight. It'll be interesting to see how Sturgeon plays it.

Edit: Robertson, not Sturgeon.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:26 pm

StephenDolan wrote:Ballsy move to attend tonight. It'll be interesting to see how Sturgeon plays it.

Edit: Robertson, not Sturgeon.

Even this morning, the speculation was that Labour would be sending Emily Thornberry instead. Yes, a risk from JC but maybe one worth taking.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:32 pm

#Clive Lewis

So I'm sat here talking to 89 year old Hilda at the Vauxhall day-centre and I ask: "What's the secret of a long life?.
She says "Don't die"

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:32 pm

PorFavor wrote:
tinybgoat wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Auguries bode ill for Theresa May's Tories
The milk has turned, the cookies crumbled,
the coagulation of chaos has begun,
the coalition of cheesecake, will rise up.
Theresa May has had her day, in the sun.
(me too, think I best go lie down, now)
Baked and sponge-based cheese cake, I trust.

Definitely baked, not sure on the base though,
think from memory,last efforts were more like a pastry,
will have to try sponge & report back (any excuse)

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:36 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:Ballsy move to attend tonight. It'll be interesting to see how Sturgeon plays it.

Edit: Robertson, not Sturgeon.
Even this morning, the speculation was that Labour would be sending Emily Thornberry instead. Yes, a risk from JC but maybe one worth taking.

I'm not a fan of Emily Thornberry so I see it more as a wise move myself. I really don't get what people see in her. I assume it's relief all round that it's not Diane Abbott in response to Rudd?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:37 pm

Will Theresa May make a late entry, do you think?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:41 pm

A cardboard cut out with "Strong and Stable" on it.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:42 pm

HindleA wrote:A cardboard cut out with "Strong and Stable" on it.

Oh, so she is turning up then?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:43 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The local elections were better for the Tories than the current polls are, and even then there weren't *that* many nailed-on gains in evidence.

Yes, but they show the Tories capable of making gains from Labour in leave voting areas. What I want to know is where people think Labour can make gains from the Tories. I used to have a Labour MP during the New Labour years, for instance, but I don't realistically expect to see them win here now and it seems unlikely Labour can gain more seats from the SNP than the Tories, so where do people think Labour can realistically make gains that don't just balance losses but narrows their seat difference to the Tories? Where are the battle grounds?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:45 pm

New poll in Scotland (from MORI) has Labour level pegging with the Tories on 25 per cent. SNP remain well ahead with 43%.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:51 pm

The UK broadcasting regulator is considering whether to launch an investigation into Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn after receiving dozens of complaints that he was biased against the Labour leader. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:53 pm

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:Ballsy move to attend tonight. It'll be interesting to see how Sturgeon plays it.

Edit: Robertson, not Sturgeon.
Even this morning, the speculation was that Labour would be sending Emily Thornberry instead. Yes, a risk from JC but maybe one worth taking.
I'm not a fan of Emily Thornberry so I see it more as a wise move myself. I really don't get what people see in her. I assume it's relief all round that it's not Diane Abbott in response to Rudd?

Jeremy Corbyn: I have never been afraid of a debate
Posted at
12:46
Here's the full statement from the Labour leader on his decision to join the BBC election debate:

I will be taking part in tonight's debate because I believe we must give people the chance to hear and engage with the leaders of the main parties before they vote. I have never been afraid of a debate in my life. Labour's campaign has been about taking our polices to people across the country and listening to the concerns of voters. The Tories have been conducting a stage-managed arms-length campaign and have treated the public with contempt. Refusing to join me in Cambridge tonight would be another sign of Theresa May's weakness, not strength."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40091449" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

seems a reasonable analysis of the situation.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:56 pm

PorFavor wrote:
The UK broadcasting regulator is considering whether to launch an investigation into Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn after receiving dozens of complaints that he was biased against the Labour leader. (Politics Live, Guardian)

I'm surprised at that, Paxman didn't land a blow on Corbyn.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 12:58 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 1:01 pm

Temulkar wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
The UK broadcasting regulator is considering whether to launch an investigation into Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn after receiving dozens of complaints that he was biased against the Labour leader. (Politics Live, Guardian)
I'm surprised at that, Paxman didn't land a blow on Corbyn.

Actually a bit of a worry that they might, in this one instance, go ahead with an investigation, and then the press can frame it that Jeremy Corbyn can't "fight his own battles". Then they'll announce, later, that there's no case to answer. Jeremy Corbyn would be wise to say that he, personally, doesn't need an investigation at this juncture.

Edited - typo

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:03 pm

Temulkar wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
The UK broadcasting regulator is considering whether to launch an investigation into Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn after receiving dozens of complaints that he was biased against the Labour leader. (Politics Live, Guardian)
I'm surprised at that, Paxman didn't land a blow on Corbyn.

He just made himself look like an arse.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:07 pm

Anyway, our own parochial concerns aside, Trump has just withdrawn the US from the Paris climate change deal. Not good.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:13 pm

Contentious,I know,but I think today marks the end of May.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:21 pm

Tim Collins, speechwriter for Thatcher, on BBC live blog:

He also argues that Mrs May is lucky there's "no Gordon Brown in her cabinet" maneuvering to take over from her at the first opportunity, so even if the victory is not stellar, she'll be safe.

Someone (Porfavor?) was musing whether they'd dump her over a slim victory. Looks unlikely. Brexit is toxic and everyone knows it.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:31 pm

Willow904 wrote:Tim Collins, speechwriter for Thatcher, on BBC live blog:

He also argues that Mrs May is lucky there's "no Gordon Brown in her cabinet" maneuvering to take over from her at the first opportunity, so even if the victory is not stellar, she'll be safe.
Someone (Porfavor?) was musing whether they'd dump her over a slim victory. Looks unlikely. Brexit is toxic and everyone knows it.

Hello.

No - not me.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:40 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:40 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ility-cuts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:43 pm

I'm pleased to read Corbyn's announcement on why he's attending the leadership debates.
He's done the work, he's telling the truth and he's absolutely right about T May's Tory contempt for the people by not attending herself.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:44 pm

citizenJA wrote:Good-afternoon, everyone

Did you go for the walk? It's a lovely day for one. (Here, anyway.)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:46 pm

HindleA wrote:Contentious,I know,but I think today marks the end of May.

We're in agreement

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:48 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Tim Collins, speechwriter for Thatcher, on BBC live blog:

He also argues that Mrs May is lucky there's "no Gordon Brown in her cabinet" maneuvering to take over from her at the first opportunity, so even if the victory is not stellar, she'll be safe.
Someone (Porfavor?) was musing whether they'd dump her over a slim victory. Looks unlikely. Brexit is toxic and everyone knows it.
Hello.

No - not me.

Damn! Knew I shouldn't have guessed. I'm absolutely rubbish at remembering these things.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 2:53 pm

PorFavor wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Good-afternoon, everyone
Did you go for the walk? It's a lovely day for one. (Here, anyway.)

Yes! Nowhere fancy, local walk with Mr citizen
An earlier walk is best avoiding pollution and greater traffic
Mr citizen leaflets and canvasses regularly, we both wanted a non-political walk
We did see VOTE LABOUR TO SAVE OUR COUNTRY signs in the windows

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 3:01 pm

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-begins ... ail-2017-5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 31 May, 2017 3:05 pm

http://labourlist.org/2017/05/10-key-se ... win-power/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

10 key seats for Labour to defend – and 10 more to target if Corbyn is to win power

These target seats seem very disparate to me, whereas a lot of the Tory targets are northern leave voting areas. Is that right? The following are lists based just on size of majority:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battle ... nservative" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battle ... ets/labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 31 May, 2017 3:08 pm

Willow904 wrote:http://labourlist.org/2017/05/10-key-se ... win-power/
10 key seats for Labour to defend – and 10 more to target if Corbyn is to win power
These target seats seem very disparate to me, whereas a lot of the Tory targets are northern leave voting areas. Is that right? The following are lists based just on size of majority:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battle ... nservative" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battle ... ets/labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It'll be busy on the Wirral between those two marginals and the nearby city of Chester seat.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 3:10 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... um=twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 31 May, 2017 3:24 pm

Willow904 wrote:http://labourlist.org/2017/05/10-key-se ... win-power/
10 key seats for Labour to defend – and 10 more to target if Corbyn is to win power
These target seats seem very disparate to me, whereas a lot of the Tory targets are northern leave voting areas. Is that right? The following are lists based just on size of majority:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battle ... nservative" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battle ... ets/labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Your questions regarding the above are excellent. I've a confession to make. I don't/can't know how long or steep the hill needing climbing is, I'm only taking one step at a time, letting stronger people lead. Other Labour party people are better informed and working harder than I'm able to now. I'll read any data anyone posts. I'm not saying I won't read data about these pertinent questions. I'm only saying I can't find out just now.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 31 May, 2017 3:29 pm

I bet Theresa May is regretting that she can't use the "It's bin night" excuse.