Monday, 5th June 2017

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 6:42 am

Good morfternoon.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 8:31 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... says-union" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Nearly 10 million Britons are in insecure work, says union
GMB research explores impact of gig economy and warns of its impact on health and family life

of 32 million "in work" Q1 this year

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 8:34 am

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... t-says-nfu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Despite overwhelmingly being in support of leaving the European Union at the Brexit referendum, farmers are increasingly gloomy now that they are staring down the reality of what leaving will entail.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 8:35 am

Farmers were among the staunchest supporters of leaving the EU, despite their dependence on the €3bn (£2.5bn) of subsidies they receive each year. Rural voters opted in large numbers to leave the EU in most of the country, excluding Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Wales.

Before the referendum, many farmers told the Guardian they preferred to be outside the EU despite the lack of certainty on future subsidies, because they disliked EU regulations or were confident the UK could compete independently with other countries.

#TWOTP

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 8:39 am

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 72881.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Brexit may prompt sovereign wealth funds to sell off UK assets
Britain was also deemed to be the least attractive developed market

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 8:47 am

Morning all.

heard Karen Bradley waffle her way through an interview on Today and managed not to directly answer any questions. And this.

Chris Cook‏Verified account @xtophercook 46m46 minutes ago
More
Karen Bradley's answers to Q about funding report on Today surely only makes sense if the document stuffs Saudi Arabia?

Indeed. If it didn't, the report would have been published most likely.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:08 am

Good morning

Just popping my head in to say hi and comment on further to what Roger has said

We are supposedly against this type of extreme interpretation of Islam but it seems to be fairly well documented that this particular ideology is coming out of the Wahhabism that has been supported with funds from the Gulf States for years....perhaps they are not directly supporting terrorist groups but the basic ideology has been (and probably still is being) supported. These countries are considered our allies

The political story of the ME seems to be one of supporting the Gulf monarchies (even the really oppressive ones like Bahrain) and opposing Iran's expansion of influence

It is with this in mind that any attempts to shed light on who is responsible for funding this particular interpretation of Islam is always fraught....Blair hid it away, the US have tried to do it (but their really strong FoI laws and obstinacy of Congress allowed some info to come out) and now our own Government again

There are big geopolitical reasons for why they have done this and some may be justified.....(I am skeptical though) but it is absolute rank hypocrisy to claim the Labour leader is 'soft on terrorism' whilst all this is going on.

We have Corbyn's history being trawled over by the media, perhaps we could see some of them asking pointed questions about our relations with the Gulf States and what their links are to this view of Islam that is rejected by the vast majority of Muslims - but has influence because of the money behind it

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:20 am

(((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
More
Yesterday, Theresa May said "enough is enough". Which was a good speech. Today she's being asked "so what will you actually do". No answer.

And yet he's still going to vote for her.

DAG pointed out how many anti-terrorism laws have been passed over the past decade or so.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

David Allen Green‏ @davidallengreen 14h14 hours ago
More
13. Whatever the best response to terrorism, making yet more laws will not be the solution.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:29 am

Doesn't seem to be much (if anything) open for comment or, come to that, much election coverage over at the Guardian. So much for carrying on as normal because we have such a strong democracy.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:40 am

Ouch!

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NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:42 am

Morning.

Anyone who has read 'I, Partridge' will be instantly familiar with the level of self-awareness on display here:

https://life.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/im-hopkins-mad/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:50 am

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:54 am

NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Anyone who has read 'I, Partridge' will be instantly familiar with the level of self-awareness on display here:

https://life.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/im-hopkins-mad/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

She got a bit of a battering last night over some snide remarks she made while the Manchester concert was going on.

I do wonder whether the tide is turning and more and more people are finding this kind of goading and sneering from right wingers tiresome and unnecessary.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 9:59 am

Oops.

Laura Kuenssberg‏Verified account @bbclaurak 17h17 hours ago
More
Irony - May's Counter-Terror and Extremism Bill she started in 2015 fell because she called the election

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 10:01 am

Deleted tweet from the political editor of the Sunday Times. You'll *never* guess the subject matter...

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gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 10:05 am

We're on holiday this week so not posting much, but the weather is pretty grim this morning so catching up with the news. Twitter has made me laugh and cry.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
And then that message from the London Bridge victim's family. "Tell them Chrissy sent you". My God.

Post by **adam** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 10:17 am

Possible this isn't actually him but the Graun has a couple of tweet from Steve Hilton...

: Screen Shot 2017-06-05 at 10.15.16.png (31.25 KiB) Viewed 17777 times

: Screen Shot 2017-06-05 at 10.15.22.png (37.7 KiB) Viewed 17777 times

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 10:36 am

http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/manifes ... people.PDF" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.welfareweekly.com/labour-lau ... rity-cuts/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 10:37 am

Not sure that Hilton has much credibility any longer. Didn't he get a complete duffing up the other week in the Guardian?

Having said that it's difficult to take a line of "enough is enough" and "something must be done"* when you've been in charge of the Home Office since 2010 until last year.

*which reminds me of Yes Minister..."this is something. Therefore we must do this".

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 10:57 am

Hilton never had much credibility but then how much credibility do those has-beens from the Labour Party a decade ago that led us to two straight losses have?

Doesn't stop their critical views of Labour being plastered across the airwaves - nice to have a bit of balance at last

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 11:16 am

Britain Elects @britainelects
·
45m

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

(via @ICMResearch / 02-04Jun)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 11:41 am

After the NCTL dropped the cases against the teachers allegedly involved in the Trojan Horse affair, I notice The Times had an article which had Wilshaw hitting out at the incompetence of the NCTL - essentially saying "Ofsted were right all along and therefore MCTL mucked up the tribunals"

So who penned this?

Npne other than Andrew Gilligan....what a surprise...

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 11:44 am

For fuck's sake (quotes from Guardian Politics Live, emphasis mine):

She says it is a question of leadership. Leadership is about being straight with people and being able to get the job done. She says she offers strong and stable leadership.

And everything we want as a country depends on getting the Brexit negotiations right, she says.

Corbyn would throw away all the work the government has done on Brexit. He would tear up the government’s white paper, and we do not know if he would try to stay in the customs union. And she says he would accept any deal from the EU, however bad it was.
The bureaucrats in Brussels would assume Christmas had come early if he adopted this approach.

Turning to security, she says Corbyn is opposed to Trident, has boasted of opposing terror laws and opposes shoot-to-kill

How can she keep sinking lower?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 11:52 am

StephenDolan wrote:Britain Elects @britainelects
·
45m

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

(via @ICMResearch / 02-04Jun)

ICM admitting quite frankly now that their results are dependent on getting the turnout model right - and saying its possible they might not have.

(saw a suggestion in another place that they had thought of tweaking their methodology early on in the campaign, but decided not to)

frog222 · Post by **frog222** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 11:53 am

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Barry Gardiner on twitter, above --" The first things she did was to cut staff in MI5 , SIS , GCHQ by 5%. " Then police by 20,000.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 52446.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

2012 -- cuts and confusion in UKBA/Border Force

A splendid record.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:03 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Ouch!

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From the same twitter string:

: frontline police.jpg (61.01 KiB) Viewed 17633 times

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:08 pm

Q: President Trump mocked Sadiq Khan. Would a period of silence from him be welcome?
May praises Khan for his response to the London Bridge attack. She does not mention Trump.

She is a disgusting individual.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:08 pm

May used "strong and stable" again??

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:09 pm

NonOxCol wrote:For fuck's sake (quotes from Guardian Politics Live, emphasis mine):

She says it is a question of leadership. Leadership is about being straight with people and being able to get the job done. She says she offers strong and stable leadership.

And everything we want as a country depends on getting the Brexit negotiations right, she says.

Corbyn would throw away all the work the government has done on Brexit. He would tear up the government’s white paper, and we do not know if he would try to stay in the customs union. And she says he would accept any deal from the EU, however bad it was.
The bureaucrats in Brussels would assume Christmas had come early if he adopted this approach.

Turning to security, she says Corbyn is opposed to Trident, has boasted of opposing terror laws and opposes shoot-to-kill

How can she keep sinking lower?

Is Tory.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:12 pm

rachel younger @rachyoungeritv

BREAKING: @jeremycorbyn tells me Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister over her record regarding police funding

I like this aggressive pushing back by Labour. In 2015 etc there'd be an attempt to defend from what had been said about him/the party by Cameron, Fallon etc. Not now.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:18 pm

And I see that the clipped Corbyn / Kuenssberg shoot to kill has been doing the rounds again on social media today.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:18 pm

She [May] says the government has protected police spending since 2015.
Labour opposed extra spending on the police, she says.
And she says Jeremy Corbyn has opposed giving new powers to the police.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/liv ... ve-updates" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and yet:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... dge-attack

May police funding.jpg (45.51 KiB) Viewed 17601 times

Indeed - disgusting.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:20 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:Britain Elects @britainelects
·
45m

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

(via @ICMResearch / 02-04Jun)
ICM admitting quite frankly now that their results are dependent on getting the turnout model right - and saying its possible they might not have.

(saw a suggestion in another place that they had thought of tweaking their methodology early on in the campaign, but decided not to)

Yougov were asking a lot of questions about likelihood to vote and past voting in their latest survey I took. So I'm not sure there's much confidence they're getting it right at the other end of the spectrum either. No one knows which way it will go. Someone during a discussion on BBC news on Friday on the topic suggested there shouldn't be any polling during campaign periods. I think they might be right. The polls can come to shape people's voting choices which, given how wrong they can often be, can't really be a good thing.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:23 pm

StephenDolan wrote:rachel younger @rachyoungeritv

BREAKING: @jeremycorbyn tells me Theresa May should resign as Prime Minister over her record regarding police funding

I like this aggressive pushing back by Labour. In 2015 etc there'd be an attempt to defend from what had been said about him/the party by Cameron, Fallon etc. Not now.

Although, giving that there is a General Election pending within days, I wonder at the wisdom of putting it as baldly as this.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:23 pm

Green market could expand from 2% to 13% of UK economy by 2050 with the right policies, says low-carbon group that includes Ikea, Siemens and M&S
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... s-industry" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:23 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Ouch!

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

From the same twitter string:
frontline police.jpg

Any opposition should run with this, but it isn't really plausible. Crime has fallen at an even faster rate during the same period.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:29 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:Britain Elects @britainelects
·
45m

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

(via @ICMResearch / 02-04Jun)
ICM admitting quite frankly now that their results are dependent on getting the turnout model right - and saying its possible they might not have.

(saw a suggestion in another place that they had thought of tweaking their methodology early on in the campaign, but decided not to)

You think the unadjusted figures a more reliable guide?

I don't.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:38 pm

That is not what I said.

ICM's result is dependent on the various age groups and demographics turning out in EXACTLY THE SAME proportions as last time. They are quite open about this.

There is at least some evidence that this will not be the case.

(and the 44% turnout of 18-24 years olds in 2015 is not - contrary to what some have asserted - "normal" but in fact very much on the low side even in recent elections)

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:42 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Ouch!

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

From the same twitter string:
frontline police.jpg

Any opposition should run with this, but it isn't really plausible. Crime has fallen at an even faster rate during the same period.

How is it not plausible? If we cut to 0 then there will be no crime?

There are many potential reasons why we have seen crime fall but that does not mean a reciprocal reduction in police will be a sensible option as it could very well be a lag in it and we see rises again at some point in the near future

I see you have crawled back out from under your stone

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:42 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 72931.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
David Cameron’s former policy guru has demanded Theresa May resign for “security failures” that led to terror attacks in Westminster, Manchester and London Bridge.

Steve Hilton said Ms May bore responsibility for the attacks, should not be seeking re-election and had been “blame shifting” in statements since they unfolded.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:43 pm

Someone was saying something about how we hadn't seen any letters signed by lots of important people:

https://amp.theguardian.com/news/2017/j ... nomy-needs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There is no future for the UK in a race to the bottom, which would only serve to increase social and economic inequality and further damage our social fabric. On the contrary, the UK urgently needs a government committed, as is Labour, to building an economy that really works “for the many, and not only the few”.

Some of the signatories are the usual suspects - Ann Pettifor, Richard Murphy, Yanis Varoufakis - but some other names stand out, particularly James K Galbraith, son of John K Galbraith who was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century. It interests me because I've read a few things recently that suggests economists in general are getting a bit fed up of the pseudo-economic crap being peddled by lying, manipulative politicians and accepted as gospel by ignorant, fawning journalists. There are a lot of names from around the world on this list. Are the experts Gove told us to ignore starting to fight back?

Edited because predictive text doesn't like "crap"

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:46 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:That is not what I said.

ICM's result is dependent on the various age groups and demographics turning out in EXACTLY THE SAME proportions as last time. They are quite open about this.

There is at least some evidence that this will not be the case.

(and the 44% turnout of 18-24 years olds in 2015 is not - contrary to what some have asserted - "normal" but in fact very much on the low side even in recent elections)

AK is completely correct

The difference in headline VI is based on the models being used which are based on experiences from past GE - the models being used are very different and this election is a particularly strange one and so who knows which model is correct

Could this be the election when the youth turnout in the same numbers as the pensioners? If they do then the YouGov model will be right, if not then one of the others will be

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:54 pm

On the resignation point, I would suggest people read the direct quote which was not quite as it is being presented - it seems pretty sensible to me.

Here is the quote where Jeremy Corbyn said Theresa May should resign over police cuts. Asked in an ITV interview if he supported calls for her to resign, he replied:

Indeed I would, because there’s been calls made by a lot of very responsible people on this who are very worried that she was at the Home Office for all this time, presided over these cuts in police numbers and is now saying that we have a problem - yes, we do have a problem, we should never have cut the police numbers.

But calling for a serving prime minister to resign three days before polling day may not seem particularly realistic and, when he was asked about May resigning for a second time, Corbyn said the election might be a better way of removing her. He said:

We’ve got an election on Thursday and that’s perhaps the best opportunity to deal with it.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 12:56 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the ... 73166.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Why both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn should pray that they lose this election (by a whisker)
Circumstances mostly beyond the control of either of the two candidates for Prime Minister will push Britain towards recession, lower living standards and, most terrifyingly of all for a politician, a house price crash

The Brexit talks, Brexit itself, and whatever follows from it, will obviously dominate the life of the next government, whoever wins this Thursday. It will be a miserable time for all concerned.

The main points (in red) actually entirely within the control of the Tories until they 'cked the country big time.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 1:22 pm

Willow904 wrote:Yougov were asking a lot of questions about likelihood to vote and past voting in their latest survey I took. So I'm not sure there's much confidence they're getting it right at the other end of the spectrum either. No one knows which way it will go. Someone during a discussion on BBC news on Friday on the topic suggested there shouldn't be any polling during campaign periods. I think they might be right. The polls can come to shape people's voting choices which, given how wrong they can often be, can't really be a good thing.

I completely agree with you

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 1:23 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 1:31 pm

PorFavor wrote:Doesn't seem to be much (if anything) open for comment or, come to that, much election coverage over at the Guardian. So much for carrying on as normal because we have such a strong democracy.

(cJA emphasis)

Yeah, what's going on over there?

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 1:48 pm

For SH

GAURANG‏
@gaurangmorjaria

Huge discrepancy between actual crime numbers as recorded by Police and as reported by Tory govt

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Video - link well worth a listen to

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 1:49 pm

Statistics.....and we know what we say about them...who and what to believe?

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Editedto say: Oh bugger, too slow

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 05 Jun, 2017 2:04 pm

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... stent.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If I could carry just one message into mediamacro to bring it more into line with macro theory, it is that nominal interest at their lower bound represent a policy failure

Yes, this. This is the failure of our media. For the last 10 goddam years the one question they should have been asking over and over again, but having barely asked at all, is "when will interests rates rise from their current, emergency low level"?

If they had, the public might have had a better sense of just what a goddam mess these Tories have been making of our economy. You don't just let the Tories pick the only economic indicator that looks good, unemployment, and let them use it to claim a "strong economy", you ask them about all the other economic indicators that aren't good, you hammer them on it. They wouldn't have let a Labour government get away with such a poor economic record.