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AnatolyKasparov wrote:What would you expect McDonnell - one of Corbyn's closest long term confidants - to say Willow? I really think that you are over-analysing this.
If I was analysing it, my reaction would be more reasonable. My reaction is a purely emotional kneejerk one and seriously, how exactly do you think fans of Miliband are supposed to take that? Or fans of Smith?
It pissed me off, too. You'd think he'd take more care not to alienate people who may well have taken a long time to accept Jeremy Corbyn.
John McDonnell was on the World at One a few minutes ago and he described Jeremy Corbyn as the strongest and most decent leader Labour has had, possibly for generations.
Why do they keep doing this? Why do they keep alienating long time Labour supporters by suggesting the party and leaders they have supported all these years were somehow corrupt? Are we saying now that Ed Miliband isn't a decent, principled person? It's this arrogant assumption of some kind of exclusive moral rightness that is so insufferable about Corbyn and co. Like we're not all deeply flawed and prone to error. Blair may have been a compromise too far, but I deeply resent the writing off of Labour's other leaders as somehow inferior. Corbyn hasn't proved himself any more capable than Kinnock, Smith, Brown or Miliband yet. Perhaps they should wait until they've actually beaten the Tories and successfully implemented their manifesto before they start crowing about how superior they are. Sorry to be churlish about this, but for me Ed Miliband was one of the most impressive and genuine politicians I've seen in a long time. It's one thing for Corbyn and co to claim to be better campaigners or more radical or whatever but to claim to be more "decent" implies Ed Miliband or Gordon Brown aren't decent people and to me that's a completely unacceptable slur.
Afternoon folks,
@Willow No offence, but I don't suppose he was talking to you. That was a heads up to anyone who had been tempted by the May leadership cult and their efforts to put the question of leadership at the forefront.
On a different note, no signs of an election round here. 1 leafleteach from Labour and Libdems, nothing else. No canvassers at all
Cheer.
Ps apple for any typos. I dropped my specs off a Spanish mountain last week so I'm typing this with a three year old pair. On a phone.
I treat it in the same way as SH's opinion to vote for Labour is immoral,zero effect on my opinion,too late anyway I have already carried out the sinful act.
I should wear glasses really,but not being a driver and ability to read without them,added to the fact on previous purchasing I either break them or lose both pairs within the first week(never been taken by a Spanish mountain though)-there still is a pair somewhere about the house,unless I flushed them down the toilet or some such,I am doing without.
Wanted to say hello before the big day and hoping all is well...
I have posted a bit on polling on the other site but wanted to see if any of you guys/gals had any views seeing there are some people here who look at polling etc more often
I have been looking at the polls and have been over at UKPR to gain some insight...the site itself seems to be a bit of a right wing echo chamber (just thought I would get that in) but it does have some interesting snippets
I know polls are problematic but they are the only data I have.
The consensus is that the raw data from the polls after normal weighting to make up for sampling error is around 2-3% Tory lead. This was the bit that was supposedly wrong in 2015 and has been corrected for (I think that is right). There is then some further manipulation based on turnout and a few other things
It seems Survation and YouGov have confidence in their sampling and have been using some turnout numbers that give the 2% Tory lead. ICM and ComRes seem to go for a much tougher weighting in favour of the Tories to give the 10%+ leads...and some are suggesting they are double correcting. The basis for that seems that they do not want to be underestimating the Tories again. Whose model is the best is up for grabs but Survation explain theirs here
So the overall polls are based on who has their models right and that is up for grabs....YouGov could be ignoring something or ICM could be overweighting the Tories
All I can say here is that Nate Silver suggested that the dynamic is different when a party is leading to when it is behind and that he generally seems a tightening of a gap rather than a widening when he looks at UK previous data - but he also says that polls in the UK are crap because there are not enough elections to test the models
There is then a second argument over the seats - the assumption is that Labour will be hit disproportionately because of the Brexit/UKIP effect. I am becoming less convinced by this and I think that the assumption of adding UKIP and Tory together is a very lazy one and it seems to be at the heart of a lot of assumptions
I suppose the only thing that stops me being more optimistic is the noise coming that the ground is showing that UKIP->Tory transfer but it is just noise at the moment and no-one seems to be coming out with much definitive
Just to let you know my prediction is for a pretty much similar gap to what we have now 6-7% with some leakage in the North giving some seats to the Tories
I am starting to detect though a little worry from the t'other side based on the polls and the assumptions within them....it is just the anecdotal evidence from on the ground that concerns me but that is a game with a lot of misinformation so as to ensure people aren't encouraged not to vote or to swap
What is funny though on UKPR is that some people are using the betting markets as there guide to individual seats etc - not something I would suggest doing apart from in absolutely dead certs.....the bookies just don't want to lose money - not predict the result
AnatolyKasparov wrote:What would you expect McDonnell - one of Corbyn's closest long term confidants - to say Willow? I really think that you are over-analysing this.
If I was analysing it, my reaction would be more reasonable. My reaction is a purely emotional kneejerk one and seriously, how exactly do you think fans of Miliband are supposed to take that? Or fans of Smith?
You won't get a bigger admirer of Ed than me (he has been brilliant during this campaign) and I am pretty unbothered by it. Its what I would expect him to say.
Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has issued a final election message in the form of a Facebook post. It includes this particularly caustic attack on Theresa May.
Just a few months ago, if you’d asked me what I thought of Theresa May, I would have said that – while I disagreed with her politics – I admired her character. I considered her stolid, strong and principled, with a basic sense of decency not always found in front-line politics.
Well what a difference seven weeks make. Since calling the election, she has been well and truly shown up as tetchy and thin-skinned about criticism, weak and unstable under pressure, cowardly when faced with a challenge, and deceitful when it suits her political ends.
But more than anything, I believe she has been exposed as a hypocrite.
She is happy to trade on her faith one minute, then tell blatant lies about Jeremy Corbyn the next. She viciously attacks Diane Abbott over getting her numbers wrong in an interview, then brazenly and repeatedly refuses to offer any costings of her own.
And worst, most sickening of all, she stands outside 10 Downing Street and tells the British public that ‘enough is enough’ on terrorism, then goes back inside to call her Jihadist-funding friends in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and see what business deals she can strike with them next.
(Politics Live, Guardian)
Just about sums it up. Well expressed by Emily Thornberry.
Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has issued a final election message in the form of a Facebook post. It includes this particularly caustic attack on Theresa May.
Just a few months ago, if you’d asked me what I thought of Theresa May, I would have said that – while I disagreed with her politics – I admired her character. I considered her stolid, strong and principled, with a basic sense of decency not always found in front-line politics.
Well what a difference seven weeks make. Since calling the election, she has been well and truly shown up as tetchy and thin-skinned about criticism, weak and unstable under pressure, cowardly when faced with a challenge, and deceitful when it suits her political ends.
But more than anything, I believe she has been exposed as a hypocrite.
She is happy to trade on her faith one minute, then tell blatant lies about Jeremy Corbyn the next. She viciously attacks Diane Abbott over getting her numbers wrong in an interview, then brazenly and repeatedly refuses to offer any costings of her own.
And worst, most sickening of all, she stands outside 10 Downing Street and tells the British public that ‘enough is enough’ on terrorism, then goes back inside to call her Jihadist-funding friends in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and see what business deals she can strike with them next.
(Politics Live, Guardian)
Just about sums it up. Well expressed by Emily Thornberry.
Thornberry has been very good this campaign IMHO.
When she got Fallon with the Assad celebration party. What a great moment.
More than 8,000 people have responded to an appeal from Momentum, the Labour organisation that supports Jeremy Corbyn and the left, to take a day off tomorrow to maximise turnout.
The organisation estimates that the 8,000 volunteers are capable of knocking on well over a million doors. The intention is to try to address the recurring problem of getting apathetic or wavering voters but especially the young to the polling booth, the latter regarded as the make-or-break issue of the election.
The aim is to keep returning to doors until they receive confirmation that a person has voted. The volunteers are being directed towards marginal seats. (Politics Live, Guardian)
More than 8,000 people have responded to an appeal from Momentum, the Labour organisation that supports Jeremy Corbyn and the left, to take a day off tomorrow to maximise turnout.
The organisation estimates that the 8,000 volunteers are capable of knocking on well over a million doors. The intention is to try to address the recurring problem of getting apathetic or wavering voters but especially the young to the polling booth, the latter regarded as the make-or-break issue of the election.
The aim is to keep returning to doors until they receive confirmation that a person has voted. The volunteers are being directed towards marginal seats. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has issued a final election message in the form of a Facebook post. It includes this particularly caustic attack on Theresa May.
Just a few months ago, if you’d asked me what I thought of Theresa May, I would have said that – while I disagreed with her politics – I admired her character. I considered her stolid, strong and principled, with a basic sense of decency not always found in front-line politics.
Well what a difference seven weeks make. Since calling the election, she has been well and truly shown up as tetchy and thin-skinned about criticism, weak and unstable under pressure, cowardly when faced with a challenge, and deceitful when it suits her political ends.
But more than anything, I believe she has been exposed as a hypocrite.
She is happy to trade on her faith one minute, then tell blatant lies about Jeremy Corbyn the next. She viciously attacks Diane Abbott over getting her numbers wrong in an interview, then brazenly and repeatedly refuses to offer any costings of her own.
And worst, most sickening of all, she stands outside 10 Downing Street and tells the British public that ‘enough is enough’ on terrorism, then goes back inside to call her Jihadist-funding friends in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and see what business deals she can strike with them next.
(Politics Live, Guardian)
Just about sums it up. Well expressed by Emily Thornberry.
That is a massive amount and I know we seem to have moved back to a duopoly at this election but even so, outpolling Thatcher and Blair in their pomp seems far too optimistic to me
I might be wrong nut I see them down in the lowish 40s with labour mid-highish 30s (43-36, 44-37 possibly)
I have no evidence just my opinion but if it is right then a large percentage of the UK population are wankers!
According to Politics Live, Guardian, Theresa May is being interviewed at 7pm (Jon Snow, Channel 4). Jeremy Corbyn (who would have been interviewed on Channel 4 by Krishnan Guru-Murthy) is not going to appear. Not sure that's wise. Still time to change his mind, I suppose?
Krishnan Guru-Murthy ✔ @krishgm
But bad news from Labour. I even offered a last minute live from his rally in Harrow - but after weeks of calls it's a NO from Mr Corbyn " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
5:55 PM - 7 Jun 2017
Was this wise? May's doing one last interview, anyway, for C4 news at 7pm.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
if anybody wants to get their gloating in early, it is quite clear that the politics I want to win in the UK will lose badly tomorrow, come what may.
So I don't support
1. The Tories
2. The Bennite left
3. Brexit
Some combination of 1+3 and 2+3 is going to take 80%+ of the vote tomorrow, and the parties in England that are "neither of the above" are going to get crushed.
There seem to me to be two reasons why Labour is not going to do badly.
1. May is a very poor, and the Tory campaign has been unbelievably shit. Killing animals. Secondary moderns. Dementia tax
2. You can't campaign on Brexit if you have no answers at all about Brexit. And the Tories don't. So they can't campaign on it.
I am also quite certain that whatever happens tomorrow, we had a far far more important election last year. And that was a disaster.
This what one poster has put on UKPR - he is one of the view that looks at the models instead of parroting opinions based on very little
Oh Crikey.
I just read the ICM data. https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content ... M_1500.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
— They weight everything precisely to 2015 turnout, even though all pollsters are picking up an increase in self-report turnout among the under 45’s this time who are far more likely to vote LAB
— They also weight according to past voting behaviour, again this disadvantages LAB
— They additionally re-allocate don’t knows in favour of CON (even though in this election DK’s have been breaking for LAB by a large margin)
The end result of this, is they turn a near dead-heat into a 12 point lead. I’m sorry but that is just ludicrous.
His view is that the ICM methodology would make it virtually impossible to have a <10% Tory lead and that the raw data shows almost a dead heat....still see him being too optimistic though
SpinningHugo wrote:if anybody wants to get their gloating in early, it is quite clear that the politics I want to win in the UK will lose badly tomorrow, come what may.
So I don't support
1. The Tories
2. The Bennite left
3. Brexit
Some combination of 1+3 and 2+3 is going to take 80%+ of the vote tomorrow, and the parties in England that are "neither of the above" are going to get crushed.
There seem to me to be two reasons why Labour is not going to do badly.
1. May is a very poor, and the Tory campaign has been unbelievably shit. Killing animals. Secondary moderns. Dementia tax
2. You can't campaign on Brexit if you have no answers at all about Brexit. And the Tories don't. So they can't campaign on it.
I am also quite certain that whatever happens tomorrow, we had a far far more important election last year. And that was a disaster.
What election was that?
The last 'election' was 2015 when the right wing of the Labour Party did their best to undermine the leader at the time.....that was the important one
SpinningHugo wrote:if anybody wants to get their gloating in early, it is quite clear that the politics I want to win in the UK will lose badly tomorrow, come what may.
So I don't support
1. The Tories
2. The Bennite left
3. Brexit
Some combination of 1+3 and 2+3 is going to take 80%+ of the vote tomorrow, and the parties in England that are "neither of the above" are going to get crushed.
There seem to me to be two reasons why Labour is not going to do badly.
1. May is a very poor, and the Tory campaign has been unbelievably shit. Killing animals. Secondary moderns. Dementia tax
2. You can't campaign on Brexit if you have no answers at all about Brexit. And the Tories don't. So they can't campaign on it.
I am also quite certain that whatever happens tomorrow, we had a far far more important election last year. And that was a disaster.
What election was that?
The last 'election' was 2015 when the right wing of the Labour Party did their best to undermine the leader at the time.....that was the important one
Ah yes, it was all Simon Danczuk's fault.
For most voters, stuff like that doesn't register.
But yes, losing 2015, a very winnable election, now looks like an utter disaster for the UK, and from my perspective for the Labour party.
An interesting question is whether Miliband would have done better running on the 2017 manifesto rather than on the more cautious 2015 one.
So, there is lots to admire in the 2017 manifesto. The economics of the big capital investment programme is a bit garbled, but is absolutely right. The UK needs a large amount of capital expenditure to lift it off the zlb. Once it s off, it can be scaled back. The 2017 manifesto contains some extremely silly, but very popular proposals (rail nationalisation, and spending £12bn on paying the better off to go to University for free), and some odd omissions (ie next to nothing on benefits for the poorest: but in electoral terms they don't count).
I rather doubt it myself. The pool has got bigger. Ukips have collapsed, and the Lib Dem slow decline has continued. The fear of the Scottish hoards has faded as their referendum fades in the memory.
Still, politics is nothing if not interesting at the moment. Awful as it is.
To Labour? They clearly don't. No promises made. See the IFS on the distributional implications of Labour's proposals. the poorest have been taken for granted in the manifesto, with instead a big ticket promise to the rich (Uni fees).
SpinningHugo wrote:An interesting question is whether Miliband would have done better running on the 2017 manifesto rather than on the more cautious 2015 one.
So, there is lots to admire in the 2017 manifesto. The economics of the big capital investment programme is a bit garbled, but is absolutely right. The UK needs a large amount of capital expenditure to lift it off the zlb. Once it s off, it can be scaled back. The 2017 manifesto contains some extremely silly, but very popular proposals (rail nationalisation, and spending £12bn on paying the better off to go to University for free), and some odd omissions (ie next to nothing on benefits for the poorest: but in electoral terms they don't count).
I rather doubt it myself. The pool has got bigger. Ukips have collapsed, and the Lib Dem slow decline has continued. The fear of the Scottish hoards has faded as their referendum fades in the memory.
Still, politics is nothing if not interesting at the moment. Awful as it is.
HindleA wrote:Be careful though,nobody is immune from becoming one of "them".
Absolutely. Which is why I think parties of the left should be promising to redistribute serious wealth to the poorest. Labour isn't doing that because it calculates (rightly) that those votes are theirs anyway and any such promise would add to the cost of their programme. The £12bn for the wealthy is targeted instead at swing voters after a free lunch.
Time and again here and elsewhere I've said we should resdistrbute money to the poorest and the Tory cuts to benefits were an utter disgrace. Happy to repeat that.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/brexit ... eresa-may/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The fault for all this lies with May herself. Her campaign has been chaotic, featuring reversals on policies before the ink was dry on the manifesto, but the biggest problem has been May herself. She just looks so uncomfortable in the company of humans. She has done well to avoid meeting the public during the campaign, preferring closed meetings with ‘ordinary people’ who invariably turn out to be party activists.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 77716.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Almost a third of small businesses want a new government that would reverse the Brexit decision, new research has revealed.
In Wales, where a majority of people voted to leave the EU last June, the figure was 36 per cent, while in London it rose to 41 per cent, Hitachi Capital found.
