Thursday 8th June 2017

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 6:12 am

Morning.

Lazy bastards that haven't voted yet you can redeem yourselves today.

https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/f ... to-answer/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Four questions on disability the Conservatives refuse to answer

whether there will be any further cuts to disability benefits in the next parliament.
no clarity from the party on its policy on charging for adult social care for working-age disabled people
(A third of all receivers)
dodged questions about her views on the forced institutionalisation of disabled people.
whether Mordaunt misled last week’s disability hustings event when she claimed that another Tory government would “dismantle” the work capability assessment.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 6:20 am

See my post on last thread. ATOS morphs into Independent Assessment Services. So they have plans for us. But hoped it would pass under the radar.

Morning all. Except it is more like very late evening for me. It is going to be a long day.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 6:27 am

Morning all. Not a fun day ahead for me. Operation (on knee) after quite a long wait. Then immobile for ages.

Predictions?

I think this is very hard. I think Labour will do slightly better than expected, so I am going to go for a Tory of around 40.

The Lib Dems to go down to two seats, the SNP to lose 6. Ukips finished.

For the future, because Corbyn will have bettered Miliband in 2015 (and may even beat Blair in 2005) in terms of vote share, he'll be leader for the foreseeable future.

Rather depressingly, May might beat Labour's vote share in 1997.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 6:46 am

Too many knee jerk reactions,like my attempts at humour,not meant viciously or unkindly.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 6:55 am

@seeingclearly

ATOS have always done PIP assessments,not fully getting your point.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:02 am

You can now vote.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:09 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-40188948" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:10 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:11 am

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 78226.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hawaii defies Trump and becomes first state to legally support Paris Agreement on climate change
At least 12 states have said they will push back on Mr Trump's Paris decision

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:14 am

https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/p ... -claimant/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A disabled teacher has told how a government contractor apologised to him for a dishonest benefit assessment, and then had to apologise again after it ordered a replacement assessment which was even worse.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:20 am

https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oldest Homo sapiens bones ever found shake foundations of the human story

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 7:53 am

Good morfternoon.

@SpinnningHugo

Best wishes for the knee op. Hope you recover as quickly as possible.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:17 am

Morning.

I will of course admit that 7/5/15 and 23/6/16 were a total shock and quite frankly I haven't got over the second of them even now, given that I expect it to cast a completely unnecessary and utterly pointless shadow over the rest of my working life.

I will stay reasonably quiet so as not to undermine morale. But I have a sense of dread today I did not have in 2015 or 2016. Arrived at work to hear two people talking loudly about "lending May [their] vote", imagining the effect of Corbyn on the economy/FTSE, disagreeing with "almost everything he comes up with", "not getting" his support at rallies. One said he had an image of Corbyn outside No.10 and that he would "organise a militia" if it came to pass.

They work for an engineering company. In South Yorkshire. They are not classic Tories.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:27 am

Morning all.

Damp and warm here. Good day for slugs.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:35 am

The sky is black here, so I expect a deluge of indeterminate duration.

frog222 · Post by **frog222** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:35 am

PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

@SpinnningHugo

Best wishes for the knee op. Hope you recover as quickly as possible.

And from me too, off to see the anaesthetist for mine on the 23rd !

( I wont tell you my waiting-time ...

)

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:37 am

I'm with Martin Rowson on the subject, of course:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I can't really comprehend how anyone would "lend" her their vote, and certainly not on the basis of foul propaganda.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:47 am

HindleA wrote:@seeingclearly

ATOS have always done PIP assessments,not fully getting your point.

That they will now appear to be something else to many people. A rebrand does not make them different in any way. They are now a minor deliverer of PIP assessment because they became a toxic brand. Maximus and Capita are doing the bulk of the work. Maybe I am a little paranoid, you think, that this is flying under cover of a GE. But then again maybe not, what with all sorts of new conditionaility and more swingeing cuts being planned, many of which will be implemented through UC. Including in all likelihood some stringent means testing.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 8:49 am

Morning.

Cold, windy, wet and miserable here in West Wales, after similar days. Even the slugs are using canoes.
Not sure it will affect turnout. Hardy souls here, used to rain, lots of farmers.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:00 am

#dogsatpollingstations

Post by **adam** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:01 am

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... CMP=twt_gu

Oldest Homo sapiens bones ever found shake foundations of the human story

Perhaps. Or it might turn out to be a bit more complicated than that.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:03 am

God love them,elderly couple in the pissing rain doing the remember to vote Labour today leaflet thing.

Post by **adam** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:04 am

With apologies for the repost I will repeat what I said last night, that the silver lining is that the worst that can happen today is that we get five more years of them fucking everything up rather than three. I think she'll end up with a 50ish majority, I'll be surprised if she doesn't win their best parliamentary majority since Thatcher and that will justify (for them) doing whatever they want with their blank slate manifesto. I'd like to be surprised.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:12 am

HindleA wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-40188948

Can disclose this now. Once was responsible for helping produce an information video on short breaks and respite care, which as anyone in the disability world knows are vital for family carers to recharge their energy, such as it may be. These are almost always in short term residential homes. I don't think they were ever good places, few relationships with the client groups got built.

The sessions revealed an utter culture of fear. It got presented to the right people at the top but there it stayed. I had the job of editing over 20 hours of footage into a twenty and a forty minute presentstion. It was bloody hesrtbreaking and not a damn thing anyone could do about it. It seemed just to be accepted that such places attracted violent bullies, that not many others would do the work. I still have the raw footage and often wonder what became of the very vulnerable people we worked with.

There is more detail of actual harm, but that is something I cannot disclose. It was however not of a sexual nature, but physically and mentally violent.

So this case distressed me, because I have personal knowlege of its reality. At the time we felt it was probably more widespread than we were able to ascertain. Mainly because no one listened or asked the client group or families what their experiences were. We based this on families often being resistant to take a break even when things were pretty dire.

Terrible to see such info sink like a stone. More recent cases have taught me why.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:21 am

https://www.theguardian.com/social-care ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Fund social care through tax – anything else punishes those who need it most
Jane Young

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:22 am

RIP Sophie Partridge

http://sophiepartridge.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:33 am

Tieing to poles,imprisonment and punishment for deviation was the "acceptable".method not that long ago,seeingclearly.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 9:34 am

Morning all.

Polling station has been in our nursery for a few years now so went and voted at the time the kids were coming into school. And ticked off a couple of parents for parking illegally to boot.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:07 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Polling station has been in our nursery for a few years now

That's what I like to hear, getting children engaged in politics early on.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:16 am

The threatened rain seems to have retreated. Otherwise, it's a bit muggy (with a slight chill in the mix) and gently breezy. No sun.

There'll doubtless be more incisive posts like this one as I desperately try to distract myself.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:17 am

SpinningHugo wrote:Morning all. Not a fun day ahead for me. Operation (on knee) after quite a long wait. Then immobile for ages.

Predictions?

I think this is very hard. I think Labour will do slightly better than expected, so I am going to go for a Tory of around 40.

The Lib Dems to go down to two seats, the SNP to lose 6. Ukips finished.

For the future, because Corbyn will have bettered Miliband in 2015 (and may even beat Blair in 2005) in terms of vote share, he'll be leader for the foreseeable future.

Rather depressingly, May might beat Labour's vote share in 1997.

Hope your op goes well & take care post-op - don't try forcing it to do things it shouldn't !

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:18 am

frog222 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

@SpinnningHugo

Best wishes for the knee op. Hope you recover as quickly as possible.
And from me too, off to see the anaesthetist for mine on the 23rd !

( I wont tell you my waiting-time ... )

Best wishes to you too

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:20 am

@yahyah

FINALLY !

Good to see you, at last x

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:22 am

Link to the declaration times for those of you sitting up:

http://election.pressassociation.com/De ... n_briefing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:24 am

Osborne and Balls with Bradbury tonight. I think I'll swerve ITV.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:26 am

@yahyah

Hello, there.

How's your husband? Last I heard he was having problems with his eye. Hope it's all sorted now.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:33 am

Can't possibly vote the same way he does, but this sums up my over-riding feelings and my one abiding frustration with the man I did vote for.

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PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:34 am

StephenDolan wrote:Osborne and Balls with Bradbury tonight. I think I'll swerve ITV.

I find the Sky Politics woman (Beth Rigby?), despite her Priti Patel-esque habit of dropping the "g" at the end of her "ing" words, the least unbearable. Can't bear the thought of Jeremy Vine - who always sounds as though he is reading aloud from the "Sun" or the "Express".

I'm unlikely to stay the course though, and the exit polls from 2015 are still painfully seared into my memory.

pressureuk · Post by **pressureuk** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:37 am

NonOxCol wrote:One said he had an image of Corbyn outside No.10 and that he would "organise a militia" if it came to pass.

Sounds like the kind of thing the police would be interested in.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:41 am

And as for this:

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The worst thing is realising which type of respondent is most likely to be celebrating tomorrow.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:44 am

From Paul Waugh's morning email:

The first actual votes from real live people will appear just before 11pm as Sunderland’s seats carry out their traditional race to count fastest. The seats have big Labour majorities but the thing to watch for will be the collapse in the UKIP vote and rise in Tory vote. Don’t forget Sunderland on Brexit night gave us the first real clue to Vote Leave’s lunar pull on the electoral tide.

After 1.30pm, watch for other ‘Northern rustbelt’ seats (copyright IPPR North) such as Darlington, then later Tynemouth, Blackpool South, Sedgefield (yes Blair’s old seat). At 2pm, Bury South will tell us if the Tories are in for a really good night (our focus group there suggested Labour’s Ivan Lewis is really up against it). At 3pm, Bolton North East will let Theresa May know if she’s on course for a bigger majority. Most of the crunchy results come in between 3 and 4am. Slough, another big Tory target from the Blair years, is due at 3.30am and could point to a Tory majority of up to 100. Corbynsceptics Ben Bradshaw in Exeter, Jess Philips in Birmingham Yardley and John Woodcock in Barrow will be sure to let rip if things turn for the worse. The Scottish Tory surge and the key Lib Dem fights in Richmond Park and Twickenham will become clear around 4am.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:47 am

Hope your operation goes well SH, and that the following 24 hours provide at least something to cheer you up.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:55 am

Yeah, yeah - so I removed a comma . . .

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:56 am

A little light relief. Can we have your guesses as to which (2015)Labour MPs will be the first to call (a, via Twitter and b, via live election coverage) for Corbyn to resign?

Bryant and Phillips are my picks.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:57 am

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 10:59 am

StephenDolan wrote:A little light relief. Can we have your guesses as to which (2015)Labour MPs will be the first to call (a, via Twitter and b, via live election coverage) for Corbyn to resign?

Bryant and Phillips are my picks.

John Mann?

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 11:05 am

HindleA wrote:,

,
,

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 11:05 am

Stephen Fisher predicts

This implies a Conservative vote share lead over Labour of 9.5 points and a majority of 48. This represents only a modest improvement over the party’s performance 2015 when they achieved a majority of 12 with a 6.6 point lead.

From this central forecast, our estimated probability of a Conservative majority is 87%. Our analysis gives just a 1% chance of the Conservatives winning a 100+ landslide majority.

I have learnt not to dismiss his predictions after arguing he was wrong in 2015 when he predicted a Tory win

https://electionsetc.com/2017/06/08/pol ... -election/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 11:07 am

StephenDolan wrote:A little light relief. Can we have your guesses as to which (2015)Labour MPs will be the first to call (a, via Twitter and b, via live election coverage) for Corbyn to resign?

Bryant and Phillips are my picks.

Rumour going round that MPs have "been told" to hold back from that in the next few days.

(unless the results are exceptionally bad perhaps, but I still think JC will voluntarily exit in short order should the worst happen)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 08 Jun, 2017 11:09 am

StephenDolan wrote:
HindleA wrote:,
,
,

.