Friday June 9th 2017

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:25 pm

Smol Peltzo‏
@adi_peltz

Just seen someone describe the DUP manifesto as "basically just the bible, with fortnightly bin collections"
Too real #ge2017

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(Grandson now checking electoral register in anticipation of Sep/Oct election - will be 18 in September)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:26 pm

I just said that . . .

(Not the grimly hilarious thing about the DUP.)

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:27 pm

Afternoon.

https://twitter.com/floweroflondon/stat ... 3223035904

I was surprised and delighted at the number of young voters I saw yesterday. I said to myself "whatever the result, I just hope that this level of participation is repeated across the country, it will enrich democracy."

But as everyone knows, you can't win anything with kids.

Democracy eh, bloody hell.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:32 pm

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clive lewis celebration

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:37 pm

EVEL pretty much fucks this whole arrangement up, doesn't it? Anyone know the England only numbers?

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:44 pm

Temulkar wrote:EVEL pretty much fucks this whole arrangement up, doesn't it? Anyone know the England only numbers?

England only:
CON 297 seats, Lab 226, LD 8, Green 1, Ukip 0

55DegreesNorth · Post by **55DegreesNorth** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:46 pm

Afternoon folks, been a busy day.
I drive an ambulance for a local charity occasionally and today got caught up in this:
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/nor ... responsive
Someone with a knife & possibly a bomb took the local job centre staff hostage. Been resolved peacefully, probably more Daniel Blake than Al Qaeda.

On a more cheerful note, all those young folk who voted are likely to continue, with new ones coming along all the time. Meanwhile, at the other end of the age scale...

Post by **adam** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:46 pm

England results (with Kensington not declared) - 532 of 533 seats

Con 45.6% vote share - 297 seats (-21) (56% of seats)
Lab 41.9% vote share - 226 seats (+20) (43% of seats)
LD 7.8% vote share - 8 seats (+2) (1.5% of seats)
Grn 1.9% vote share - 1 seat (±0) (0.2% of seats)
UKIP 2.1% vote share - 0 seats (-1)

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 1:52 pm

Anyone else getting the Lady Macbeth vibe

The raven himself is hoarse
That croaks the fatal entrance of Duncan
Under my battlements. Come, you spirits
That tend on mortal thoughts, unsex me here
And fill me, from the crown to the toe, top-full
Of direst cruelty! Make thick my blood,
Stop up the access and passage to remorse,
That no compunctious visitings of nature
Shake my fell purpose nor keep peace between
The effect and it! Come to my woman's breasts,
And take my milk for gall, you murdering ministers,
Wherever in your sightless substances
You wait on nature's mischief! Come, thick night,
And pall thee in the dunnest smoke of hell,
That my keen knife see not the wound it makes,
Nor heaven peep through the blanket of the dark
To cry, “Hold, hold!”

Post by **adam** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:00 pm

Lest we should forget (as if)

: crush-the-saboteurs_theresamay.jpg (38.18 KiB) Viewed 17307 times

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:03 pm

Osborne's front page for the Standard is 'Queen of Denial'.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:05 pm

the power went off for less than a minute alarms going off up and down the street
Internet connection iffy

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:05 pm

Internet connection sporadic

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:21 pm

Angela Merkel is travelling around South America today, and her spokesperson said that she would not comment on the outcome of the UK elections “out of politeness and respect”.

Probably hasn't been able to stop laughing for long enough.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:31 pm

DUP emphasising they've not reached a firm deal with T May
One constituency hasn't finished counting yet
Is it appropriate for May to ask for government formation now?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:38 pm

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... -left.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mainlymacro

What the election does show beyond doubt is that the attitudes most of the PLP had towards the Left, which they had carried with them from the 1980s, are no longer appropriate. The result was not the disaster they had been so sure would happen. That showed some left wing policies can be very popular, even if they are called anti-capitalist by those on the right. The curse of austerity on the UK electorate has lifted. Unlike the ‘dementia tax’, none of the policies in Labour’s manifesto proved to be a millstone around Corbyn’s neck. The days when Labour politicians needed to worry about headlines in the Mail or Sun are over.

The big lessons of the last two years are for Labour’s centre and centre-left. The rules that applied in the 1980s no longer apply. The centre have to admit that sometimes the Left can get things right (Iraq, financialisation), and they deserve some respect as a result (and vice versa of course). The centre and Left have to live with each other to the extent of allowing someone from the Left to lead the party. Corbyn has shown that the Left are capable of leading with centre-left policies, and the electorate will not shun them. With the new minority government so fragile, it is time for the centre and centre-left within Labour to bury old hatchets and work with the Corbyn leadership"

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:41 pm

Esther McVey
Tory MP for Tatton

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:45 pm

Many will say that Labour achieving 40% of the popular vote vindicated the membership’s faith in Corbyn. Others will go further and say ‘if only the PLP had been more cooperative we could have won’. That is going too far..The election result was also a consequence of a truly terrible Conservatives campaign, headed by a Prime Minister who exposed herself as just the wrong person to lead the country through Brexit The economic environment couldn’t have been better for Labour: unlike 2015 we had falling real wages and the slowest quarterly GDP growth rate in the EU. Labour’s manifesto held out hope, while the Conservative manifesto was a liability. Despite all this, the Conservative vote share was above Labour.

- Simon Wren-Lewis
9 June 2017

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... -left.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:48 pm

British citizens living in Europe have reported problems with their postal votes, with many saying the late arrival of ballot papers has denied them a voice in the general election.

Some said they were particularly angry about losing the opportunity to swing the vote in marginal constituencies.

The British in Europe coalition - a group of 35,000 Britons living and working in Europe that seeks to defend the rights of UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK - said it had received more than 100 complaints in the past 24 hours.

Some people said that, despite applying in good time, they had not received their ballot papers until 7 June - the day before the election. Others had received nothing at all.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:49 pm

Press Association‏Verified account @PA 3h
Replying to @PA
...Wales, where Labour hailed a "fantastic" night.
They secured their highest vote share there in 20 years

https://t.co/ciAXmGk06H" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I love Wales

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 2:53 pm

DUP press conference

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, is speaking at a press conference now.
She thanks those who supported the party.
Yesterday was “a great result” for the union, not just in Northern Ireland but in the UK too, she says (referring to Scotland.)
She says the union will be at the forefront of the party’s mind as it proceeds in the day’s ahead.
She says the DUP also wants what is best for the whole of the UK.
Our way of life is under threat from extremists, she says.
She says she has spoken to Theresa May this morning.
She will enter into talks with her to consider how they can bring stability to the UK.
Foster says she has spoken to Theresa May about starting talks between the DUP and the Conservatives about bringing “stability” to the UK.

So Foster is confirming that talks about a deal will take place. But that is not the same as saying an agreement has been reached.

(cJA emphasis)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:00 pm

The election results look like mostly a fight between Labour and Tories, excluding Scotland
The Greens didn't stand in many constituencies, it looks like Greens voted Labour
Is this about right or have I made a mistake?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:03 pm

citizenJA wrote:
Many will say that Labour achieving 40% of the popular vote vindicated the membership’s faith in Corbyn. Others will go further and say ‘if only the PLP had been more cooperative we could have won’. That is going too far..The election result was also a consequence of a truly terrible Conservatives campaign, headed by a Prime Minister who exposed herself as just the wrong person to lead the country through Brexit The economic environment couldn’t have been better for Labour: unlike 2015 we had falling real wages and the slowest quarterly GDP growth rate in the EU. Labour’s manifesto held out hope, while the Conservative manifesto was a liability. Despite all this, the Conservative vote share was above Labour.

- Simon Wren-Lewis
9 June 2017

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... -left.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Everyone stay together, if you're Labour, stay together
No Labour briefing against Labour
If there's a problem between Labour peoples, resolve that problem between Labour peoples
There's no other way to win given winner-takes-all election contests

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:05 pm

pk1 wrote:I'm confused:

RBKC‏Verified account @RBKC 1h1 hour ago

General election: Kensington Constituency count will recommence in the Great Hall, Kensington Town Hall, 6pm today. https://goo.gl/He1K8M" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(my emphasis)

It was reported on WATO that the counters were exhausted. To ensure that there'd be no mistakes due to tiredness it was postponed until 6pm.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:07 pm

After initial "could have been a lot worse" I feel a bit sick. Another group of smug bastards supporting the party-that-hates-the-people.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:07 pm

Pound sinks but FTSE 100 climbs after shock election result
Concerns over Brexit and economic outlook push sterling to lowest level since Theresa May called snap poll

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... y-ftse-100" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But with the pound at its lowest level since since Theresa May called the snap election on 18 April, the FTSE 100 was pulled higher as the international companies that dominate the blue chip index stand to benefit from weakness in sterling.

The City was wrongfooted by the election result, which was expected to return an increased majority for May rather than the hung parliament declared just before the London markets opened.

(cJA emphasis)

What the happened there then? Why were polls so off?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:08 pm

Methodology - using the same turnout/demographic models as for 2015 meant that the youth vote was underrepresented (plus Brexit overlay)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:09 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:After initial "could have been a lot worse" I feel a bit sick. Another group of smug bastards supporting the party-that-hates-the-people.

They're in a dramatically weakened position, those bastards
It's not likely tenable

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:10 pm

Arlene Foster ✔ @DUPleader
I have spoken with the PM. We will enter discussions with the Conservatives to explore how we can help bring stability to our nation.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:11 pm

After a brief mist-free respite the red in my brain is starting to rebuild

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:12 pm

Extremists.
Hmm.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:13 pm

Andrew Reynolds @AndyReynoldsUNC
First to know
45 out LGBTQ MPs in new British House of Commons. 19 Labour, 19 Tories and 7 SNP.
Global record
Details in Pink News shortly

plus 10 DUP?

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:14 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:Methodology - using the same turnout/demographic models as for 2015 meant that the youth vote was underrepresented (plus Brexit overlay)

Even worse than that. The models were tweaked after the examination of their 2015 miss,adding an extra boost for the Tories and disbelieving the certainty of first time / long time not voters likelihood to vote.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:14 pm

Bloody Peter Mandelson. Interviewed on BBC. New Labour is not dead. Mealy-mouthed recognition of Labour's results but "must do better" (I paraphrase). Graceless git.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:20 pm

Business leaders demand answers over Brexit strategy
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40216650" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lobbying groups representing small and large organisations across the country were quick to call for a renewed focus and more specifics on Brexit.
Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors, said: "Businesses have shown in the last year that they are resilient to surprise results, but they have now been thrown into political limbo.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:22 pm

"Stability by Monday" - some Conservative MP, whose name I missed, being slaughtered by Andrew Neil.

Edited to add -

He's Steve Baker, Conservative MP and head of the European Research Group, a caucus of Tory backbenchers pushing for a hard Brexit (according to Politics Live, Guardian).

Post by **adam** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:22 pm

318 tory + 10 DUP = 328.

They need 650 - 7 SF = (643/2) +1 = 323 seats for a simple majority.

They could lose a seat in Thanet. They could lose the +10 if they screw things up about NI politics more generally or if their party refuses to compromise on some more socially liberal stuff. They could lose support in their own ranks easily on any issue just because they're pissed off with her after this result.

It seems deeply unrealistic of them to talk about a programme for five years.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:23 pm

Dan Roberts ✔ @RobertsDan
Some thoughts on what happens when Theresa May’s “stable” new government has its first brush with reality at the Brexit talks in 10 days:
...
5) May will be forced to confront the facile myth that unfettered access to European markets can be achieved at no cost to Britain
6) May will have to take these uncomfortable truths back home and sell them to a parliament where she does not command a majority

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:24 pm

StephenDolan wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:Methodology - using the same turnout/demographic models as for 2015 meant that the youth vote was underrepresented (plus Brexit overlay)
Even worse than that. The models were tweaked after the examination of their 2015 miss,adding an extra boost for the Tories and disbelieving the certainty of first time / long time not voters likelihood to vote.

I hate being pushed like that
Never did trust them polls

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:26 pm

adam wrote:It seems deeply unrealistic of them to talk about a programme for five years.

(cJA edit)

Thank you, adam

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:28 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:Extremists.
Hmm.

Psychology 101 material
Their lack of self-awareness is astonishing

Post by **adam** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:32 pm

The other other thing is that if things go wrong they will have to move fairly quickly because I can't see them allowing her to lead them into another election campaign, and it might be better for Labour to fail to get a Queen's Speech passed and then go to the country quickly than to give the tories time to reorganise.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:35 pm

Question Time, 8.30pm today (BBC1). I might even watch it. Don't know who's on.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:37 pm

Where's Lonewolfie anyway.
It's the hope that hurts.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:51 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:Where's Lonewolfie anyway.
It's the hope that hurts.

I cant see hher lasting more than a couple of months, and every day is another labour seat - we must enthuse the youth about the succcess and keep them voting - the tories are finished for the next election, and its likely to be in the autumn.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:52 pm

The new Tory-Democratic Unionist love-in will make the chances of a deal aimed at restoring power sharing government in Northern Ireland even more remote, the cross community Alliance party has warned.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:53 pm

Henry McDonald

The new Tory-Democratic Unionist love-in will make the chances of a deal aimed at restoring power sharing government in Northern Ireland even more remote, the cross community Alliance party has warned.

Amid the DUP’s euphoria over becoming the king-makers (or is it queen-makers?) of Westminster, the Alliance leader Naomi Long said the link up between Arlene Foster’s party and the Conservatives undermines the neutrality of the next Tory secretary of state for Northern Ireland.

The all-party talks by the way are scheduled to restart in Belfast this Monday. (Politics Live, Guardian)

Edited - tidy up

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:54 pm

Amid the DUP’s euphoria over becoming the king-makers (or is it queen-makers?) of Westminster, the Alliance leader Naomi Long said the link up between Arlene Foster’s party and the Conservatives undermines the neutrality of the next Tory secretary of state for Northern Ireland.
...

It has also made the possibility of successful talks more remote – there is now no credibility for the Tory government to be an independent chair, putting the entire process in real danger of collapsing.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 3:55 pm

#meldathon

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 09 Jun, 2017 4:03 pm

http://theconversation.com/how-a-hung-p ... exit-79136" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
In one sense, a very close result exposes the absurdity of Brexit. Both main political parties have been guided in the past year primarily by concerns of domestic politics. Neither, therefore, has treated Brexit as a profound national challenge – and neither has seriously brought to public attention the hard compromises and concessions Britain might have to make to get the deal that Theresa May seemed to want and that Jeremy Corbyn whipped his MPs to support in parliament.