Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th June 2017
Posted: Sat 10 Jun, 2017 6:09 am
Morning all.
In case anyone is going to google the DUP to find out more about them, they are the most venal, corrupt, homophobic, sectarian, backward looking shower of synts out there but with a veneer of dog bothering. The BNP never really made any inroads over here because I think they were a bit too soft for most DUP voters. I’d say what I really think but I’m at work and civil servants are meant to be impartial, so for balance the Shinners are a shower of synts too.
In her victory speech, Emma Dent Coad said she would focus on overcoming “unforgivable inequalities” in Kensington.
This constituency is a microcosm of everything that is wrong in this country after seven years of incompetent and uncaring coalition and Tory government.
I will do everything in my power in the next five years to make ‘One Kensington’ an example of the finest qualities of common humanity, mutual respect for all our communities and social justice to create a thoughtful, kind, co-operative and tolerant society where we can all prosper and thrive.
Quite.https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ail-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I certainly underestimated the breadth and the depth of that connection. So did many. The press and broadcasters have relied on old truths: that manifestos don’t matter, that tabloid coverage is crucial, that the young are somewhat flaky. Never have I been so happy to admit I was wrong. It was clear even before the results started coming in: the hope of so many on social media and the tirelessness of those out campaigning contrasted with the stunned, sometimes agonised coverage of the old men who govern the airwaves. Did anyone under 30 even appear? This will surely change. The media has to reflect, not simply attempt to create the world.
As I said yesterday it's the hope that hurts, but ... let's hope so.It matters significantly now that they are out of touch. It matters that their relentless negativity did not chime. In this one moment they are cut down to size: not fixers of government, not the high priests of the electorate but strange angry blokes selling seven varieties of hate while ranting to themselves.
“Best just to ignore them,” we can now say to each other – and actually mean it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... r-disaster" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tory remainers are already demanding a rethink on Brexit. “Many of us will be saying, ‘Well, we tried the Ukippy thing and look what happened, and we’re not doing it any more’,” says one well-placed ex-minster. “I think the single market and freedom of movement decisions are all back in play.”
it turned out that Corbyn and his colleagues’ basic acceptance of Brexit left open the possibility of a Labour revival in its old, leave-voting heartlands. And eventually their argument that the Tories envisaged leaving Europe as another step towards some Thatcherite dystopia chimed with a big part of a big part of the public mood. For people, including me, who criticised their contortions on Europe, pointing this out entails eating a big helping of humble pie. That’s fine: it deserves no end of praise.
Cathryn Parkes @CathrynParkes 10h10 hours ago
Everything this photo says. #GE2017 #Labour #Kensington #hungparliament #electoralreform #bbcqt
Seconded with a passion. Came here just now to suggest the same thread. It is outstanding, and a greater indictment than most of the media is likely to produce, even now.refitman wrote:Worth reading this twitter thread on the mess that is NI politics and just how bad May's DUP decision is: " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:A good piece from John Harris
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ify-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This really drives at one of the issues that we have discussed so often here. Friends here won't be surprised to know that I agree wholeheartedly
it turned out that Corbyn and his colleagues’ basic acceptance of Brexit left open the possibility of a Labour revival in its old, leave-voting heartlands. And eventually their argument that the Tories envisaged leaving Europe as another step towards some Thatcherite dystopia chimed with a big part of a big part of the public mood. For people, including me, who criticised their contortions on Europe, pointing this out entails eating a big helping of humble pie. That’s fine: it deserves no end of praise.
Well the simple suggestion of talking nicely to the EU rather than declaring war would be a good start IMHO. And could lead somewhere quite goodSpinningHugo wrote:PaulfromYorkshire wrote:A good piece from John Harris
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ify-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This really drives at one of the issues that we have discussed so often here. Friends here won't be surprised to know that I agree wholeheartedly
it turned out that Corbyn and his colleagues’ basic acceptance of Brexit left open the possibility of a Labour revival in its old, leave-voting heartlands. And eventually their argument that the Tories envisaged leaving Europe as another step towards some Thatcherite dystopia chimed with a big part of a big part of the public mood. For people, including me, who criticised their contortions on Europe, pointing this out entails eating a big helping of humble pie. That’s fine: it deserves no end of praise.
Yes. The problem with that kind of argument is that it thinks Brexit is just an electoral issue: what matters is the outcome in terms of votes.
Brexit is THE issue of our times. Billion turn on it. The damage to the UK of the Brexit that is coming is enormous: far, far greater than the difference in tax/spend between the Tory and Labour manifestos.
So, you really ought to adopt the right position on it, regardless of electoral advantage.
So, much as I'd love it if we could now stop Hard Brexit, it is really hard to see how we can given that we've already invoked article 50.
Brexit is for most people a low salience issue. That is one reason why the Tory campaign failed so badly (there are many others). You can't run a Brexit election: most people are completely clueless, they have no idea about the terrible damage about to hit us all. An issue they do care about (unfortunately) is immigration. That harmed Labour in 2015, but not now because it is thought "settled" because we're leaving the EU and no more Poles are coming. That is badly wrong, and will eventually go into reverse.
So yes, it is good that the left did well, and it is good that there seems room for a bolder approach on the economy from Labour. But the far more important election was 2016 (or if you like 2015 which led to it) and that was lost. That the parties who would try to reverse that (Greens, SNP, LIb Dems) did far worse than the two big parties who won't matters. The kind of politics I want lost really badly (as I said in advance it would).
All the glee over Theresa May, Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and internal Tory wrangling looks juvenile. The art 50 clock is ticking, and disaster is inexorably coming our way. Our main opposition party is talking about issues that were really important before 2016, but on the big one hasn't got much to say other than "we'd do Brexit better". How?
People understand the NHS, schools, inflation, disability benefits, homelessness etc. They don't really understand how these are all going to deteriorate, badly, because of Brexit regardless of who is in power.
Yes. I think that is far fetched and naive. It is in the interests of the rest of the EU for Brexit to be a proven failure to prevent further break up. "Being nice" isn't actually a practical solution to the problems we're about to face. We aren't going anywhere good with Brexit, regardless of who is in power.PaulfromYorkshire wrote: Well the simple suggestion of talking nicely to the EU rather than declaring war would be a good start IMHO. And could lead somewhere quite good
McDonnell was very good on this, on the Ch4 Alternative show.PaulfromYorkshire wrote: Well the simple suggestion of talking nicely to the EU rather than declaring war would be a good start IMHO. And could lead somewhere quite good
refitman wrote:McDonnell was very good on this, on the Ch4 Alternative show.PaulfromYorkshire wrote: Well the simple suggestion of talking nicely to the EU rather than declaring war would be a good start IMHO. And could lead somewhere quite good
McDonnell wasn't good in making the point that, if you want anything from Brexit, you need to talk to people? That you can't go in banging desks and stamping feet?SpinningHugo wrote:refitman wrote:McDonnell was very good on this, on the Ch4 Alternative show.PaulfromYorkshire wrote: Well the simple suggestion of talking nicely to the EU rather than declaring war would be a good start IMHO. And could lead somewhere quite good
I am afraid I don't think he was.
In practical economic terms what matters is single market membership (not as repeated over and over again access) and (to a lesser extent) the customs union.
When asked, the public say they want us to stay in the single market, and to end freedom of movement.
What Labour should have said is: you can't have both. If you end freedom of movement we'll have to leave the single market.
Corbyn personally actually believes in freedom of movement. (He and McDonnell almost certainly want us to leave the single market as it prevents most of the more radical things they'd like to do in terms of state aid, nationalisation and regulation. Their electoral success has given them the room to go even further now).
If we aren't going to stay in the single market, it is almost impossible to see how we stay in the customs union separately.
So, lots of waffle about how we'll get want we want if we ask politely is just noise. The EU has been crystal clear for months: unless you accept freedom of movement, you're not getting single market membership, and the best you'll get is something like what Canada has got. Labour has said it supports ending freedom of movement. Doing that is one of the things that enabled it to neutralises the immigration issue,
People who don't know what they're talking about then say "What is wrong with that, isn't a free trade deal as good as what we have?"
No it is not, that is Hard Brexit. That will cost the UK (very) conservatively £100bn (that is per annum, not overall). Put in perspective, Labour's commitment to reintroduce free University education with support costs about £12bn. Lots of other costs on top (eg NHS staffing).
People don't want to hear this. Brexit is becoming yesterday's news. It is so boring now. The parties raising it all got stuffed.
And me, I should get up earlier.NonOxCol wrote:.Came here just now to suggest the same thread..refitman wrote:Worth reading this twitter thread on the mess that is NI politics and just how bad May's DUP decision is: " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Which is fine. Being nice and polite is, no doubt, right as matter of procedure.refitman wrote:]
McDonnell wasn't good in making the point that, if you want anything from Brexit, you need to talk to people? That you can't go in banging desks and stamping feet?
You should have got up at 6 to watch the Australia/Fiji rugby match then.gilsey wrote:And me, I should get up earlier.NonOxCol wrote:.Came here just now to suggest the same thread..refitman wrote:Worth reading this twitter thread on the mess that is NI politics and just how bad May's DUP decision is: " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What happened to "stability by Monday"?
norman smith (@BBCNormanS)
DUP folk say no talks planned this weekend with Tories
June 10, 2017
(Politics Live, Guardian)
Trump, Brexit, Corbyn thrice: you are a know nothing blowhard. The only thing that has been consistently correct in your witterings is the fact that the opposite of what you say is going to happen, happens.SpinningHugo wrote:PaulfromYorkshire wrote:A good piece from John Harris
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ify-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This really drives at one of the issues that we have discussed so often here. Friends here won't be surprised to know that I agree wholeheartedly
it turned out that Corbyn and his colleagues’ basic acceptance of Brexit left open the possibility of a Labour revival in its old, leave-voting heartlands. And eventually their argument that the Tories envisaged leaving Europe as another step towards some Thatcherite dystopia chimed with a big part of a big part of the public mood. For people, including me, who criticised their contortions on Europe, pointing this out entails eating a big helping of humble pie. That’s fine: it deserves no end of praise.
Yes. The problem with that kind of argument is that it thinks Brexit is just an electoral issue: what matters is the outcome in terms of votes.
Brexit is THE issue of our times. Billion turn on it. The damage to the UK of the Brexit that is coming is enormous: far, far greater than the difference in tax/spend between the Tory and Labour manifestos.
So, you really ought to adopt the right position on it, regardless of electoral advantage.
So, much as I'd love it if we could now stop Hard Brexit, it is really hard to see how we can given that we've already invoked article 50.
Brexit is for most people a low salience issue. That is one reason why the Tory campaign failed so badly (there are many others). You can't run a Brexit election: most people are completely clueless, they have no idea about the terrible damage about to hit us all. An issue they do care about (unfortunately) is immigration. That harmed Labour in 2015, but not now because it is thought "settled" because we're leaving the EU and no more Poles are coming. That is badly wrong, and will eventually go into reverse.
So yes, it is good that the left did well, and it is good that there seems room for a bolder approach on the economy from Labour. But the far more important election was 2016 (or if you like 2015 which led to it) and that was lost. That the parties who would try to reverse that (Greens, SNP, LIb Dems) did far worse than the two big parties who won't matters. The kind of politics I want lost really badly (as I said in advance it would).
All the glee over Theresa May, Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and internal Tory wrangling looks juvenile. The art 50 clock is ticking, and disaster is inexorably coming our way. Our main opposition party is talking about issues that were really important before 2016, but on the big one hasn't got much to say other than "we'd do Brexit better". How?
People understand the NHS, schools, inflation, disability benefits, homelessness etc. They don't really understand how these are all going to deteriorate, badly, because of Brexit regardless of who is in power.
WowNonOxCol wrote:Seconded with a passion. Came here just now to suggest the same thread. It is outstanding, and a greater indictment than most of the media is likely to produce, even now.refitman wrote:Worth reading this twitter thread on the mess that is NI politics and just how bad May's DUP decision is: " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I was wondering that, it gets more interesting if Tories move towards accepting freedom of Movement & market membership, where do Labour position themselves & what happens to the ukip types (although this could be more of a problem for Tories)Willow904 wrote:According to the Ashcroft article posted yesterday, 33% of Labour voters want Brexit to go ahead as soon as possible, while 43% would like to prevent Brexit if possible.
Sitting on the fence and playing both sides enabled Labour to win votes from both these groups. If they form a government and proceed to negotiate Brexit, they will only be able to represent the interests of one of these groups of people, however. This is a simple fact. Either anti-immigration voters will be pleased with a Brexit outcome, or single market voters. There is no way both can be accommodated, unless you can persuade one side to change their minds. Everything McDonnell says suggests to me he is trying to persuade single market voters to embrace full Brexit rather than the other way round but even if I'm wrong and Corbyn and co ultimately wish to move towards a single market solution, their apparent current support for full Brexit will mean those who expect an end to immigration will eventually feel betrayed if their minds aren't changed. And I don't see how minds are changed if you don't make arguments in favour of single market membership over full Brexit.
This only becomes a problem for Labour if they form a government. It's already a problem for the Tories, because the DUP seem likely to insist on hard Brexit in return for their support, but pro-EU Tories may yet stymie such a deal by refusing to support a budget based on this arrangement because they're unhappy with how May has stuffed up. The report that they all "f***ing hate her" at least points to the potential for this, so until May has successfully steered a budget through parliament, I'm still seeing this election as something of an ongoing situation.
(cJA edit)Willow904 wrote: I'm still seeing this election as something of an ongoing situation.
(cJA edit)tinybgoat wrote:I was wondering that, it gets more interesting if Tories move towards accepting freedom of Movement & market membership, where do Labour position themselves & what happens to the ukip types (although this could be more of a problem for Tories)
Former minister Ed Vaizey indicated that Tory MPs were actively discussing May’s position...
Vaizey said he hoped the election result would soften May’s stance on Brexit, adding: “I hope in the next few days we will see a clear acknowledgement that a ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ is off the table, that we are going for a Brexit that is going to secure jobs and investment.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... d87e2f54e6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The fact that May went to the country for a mandate to negotiate a hard Brexit in the upcoming negotiations and instead lost her majority means there is no clear consensus now to leave the single market. The internal political dynamics of the Tory party and the strength and influence of its eurosceptics versus its europhiles will now come to the fore. The eurosceptic, anti-immigration leanings of Tory voters pull them one way, but the knowledge that Brexit will hurt us economically and will eventually be blamed on them even by those voters who wanted it also pulls them the other. Will the Tories sacrifice long term prosperity for short term political support, now they actually find themselves looking down the barrel of the Brexit gun?tinybgoat wrote:I was wondering that, it gets more interesting if Tories move towards accepting freedom of Movement & market membership, where do Labour position themselves & what happens to the ukip types (although this could be more of a problem for Tories)Willow904 wrote:According to the Ashcroft article posted yesterday, 33% of Labour voters want Brexit to go ahead as soon as possible, while 43% would like to prevent Brexit if possible.
Sitting on the fence and playing both sides enabled Labour to win votes from both these groups. If they form a government and proceed to negotiate Brexit, they will only be able to represent the interests of one of these groups of people, however. This is a simple fact. Either anti-immigration voters will be pleased with a Brexit outcome, or single market voters. There is no way both can be accommodated, unless you can persuade one side to change their minds. Everything McDonnell says suggests to me he is trying to persuade single market voters to embrace full Brexit rather than the other way round but even if I'm wrong and Corbyn and co ultimately wish to move towards a single market solution, their apparent current support for full Brexit will mean those who expect an end to immigration will eventually feel betrayed if their minds aren't changed. And I don't see how minds are changed if you don't make arguments in favour of single market membership over full Brexit.
This only becomes a problem for Labour if they form a government. It's already a problem for the Tories, because the DUP seem likely to insist on hard Brexit in return for their support, but pro-EU Tories may yet stymie such a deal by refusing to support a budget based on this arrangement because they're unhappy with how May has stuffed up. The report that they all "f***ing hate her" at least points to the potential for this, so until May has successfully steered a budget through parliament, I'm still seeing this election as something of an ongoing situation.
The strange tale of the DUP, Brexit, a mysterious £425,000 donation and a Saudi prince
Indeed very much reflects my thinking.Willow904 wrote:According to the Ashcroft article posted yesterday, 33% of Labour voters want Brexit to go ahead as soon as possible, while 43% would like to prevent Brexit if possible.
Sitting on the fence and playing both sides enabled Labour to win votes from both these groups. If they form a government and proceed to negotiate Brexit, they will only be able to represent the interests of one of these groups of people, however. This is a simple fact. Either anti-immigration voters will be pleased with a Brexit outcome, or single market voters. There is no way both can be accommodated, unless you can persuade one side to change their minds. Everything McDonnell says suggests to me he is trying to persuade single market voters to embrace full Brexit rather than the other way round but even if I'm wrong and Corbyn and co ultimately wish to move towards a single market solution, their apparent current support for full Brexit will mean those who expect an end to immigration will eventually feel betrayed if their minds aren't changed. And I don't see how minds are changed if you don't make arguments in favour of single market membership over full Brexit.
This only becomes a problem for Labour if they form a government. It's already a problem for the Tories, because the DUP seem likely to insist on hard Brexit in return for their support, but pro-EU Tories may yet stymie such a deal by refusing to support a budget based on this arrangement because they're unhappy with how May has stuffed up. The report that they all "f***ing hate her" at least points to the potential for this, so until May has successfully steered a budget through parliament, I'm still seeing this election as something of an ongoing situation.
Clouds gather over UK economy as data points to lacklustre growth
Small gains in industrial output and hung parliament add to fears that uncertainty will further dent already weak prospects
The figures from the Office for National Statistics suggested the economy was already struggling before this latest bout of political uncertainty. They showed manufacturing output rose 0.2% in April after falling 0.6% in March. That was well below economists’ forecast for a 0.9% rise in a Reuters poll.
Britain’s economy made a lacklustre start to the the second quarter, according to official figures on Friday that added to gloom about the UK’s growth prospects following the inconclusive election results.
Manufacturing output and broader industrial output made only small gains in April, dashing economists’ forecasts for a rebound for the economy after a slow start to 2017, which has put the UK at the bottom of the European growth league.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... tre-growth" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What has become clear is that the only Brexit available is a Hard Brexit. SoWillow904 wrote:
The fact that May went to the country for a mandate to negotiate a hard Brexit in the upcoming negotiations and instead lost her majority means there is no clear consensus now to leave the single market. The internal political dynamics of the Tory party and the strength and influence of its eurosceptics versus its europhiles will now come to the fore. The eurosceptic, anti-immigration leanings of Tory voters pull them one way, but the knowledge that Brexit will hurt us economically and will eventually be blamed on them even by those voters who wanted it also pulls them the other. Will the Tories sacrifice long term prosperity for short term political support, now they actually find themselves looking down the barrel of the Brexit gun?
There will be another election within a year.SpinningHugo wrote:What has become clear is that the only Brexit available is a Hard Brexit. SoWillow904 wrote:
The fact that May went to the country for a mandate to negotiate a hard Brexit in the upcoming negotiations and instead lost her majority means there is no clear consensus now to leave the single market. The internal political dynamics of the Tory party and the strength and influence of its eurosceptics versus its europhiles will now come to the fore. The eurosceptic, anti-immigration leanings of Tory voters pull them one way, but the knowledge that Brexit will hurt us economically and will eventually be blamed on them even by those voters who wanted it also pulls them the other. Will the Tories sacrifice long term prosperity for short term political support, now they actually find themselves looking down the barrel of the Brexit gun?
1. You can't end freedom of movement, and stay in the single market
2. You can't remain in the customs union without staying in the single market.
So the options are 1. No Brexit or 2. Hard Brexit.
This only really became clear after last June. I had thought we could try to stay in the EEA, but as most have taken the vote as being one to end freedom of movement, that is not going to be possible.
Which is one reason (in addition to a belief that they couldn't blow a 20 point lead) that the Tories went for GE. This had become apparent.
So what now?
I had thought that another election soon was possible, but on reflection I don't think so. The economy is deteriorating because of Brexit. This was the Tories' window of opportunity. The plan must have been: go for Brexit, have another election in 5 years time when the worst of the economic impact had dissipated. I don't see any good plan for them now. (Unless it is to be decisive, change leader, run a proper campaign where you promise lots of goodies to match Labour's goodies, and try again in the autumn.)
On Brexit, the biggest issue by far, the question is whether Labour continues to adopt the same approach as it did on art 50: vote for it because that is to their electoral advantage. If Labour was whipped for it, there might be a blocking majority to stop a "Tory" Brexit (ie the only one possible).
I don't know. My guess is that Labour under its current leadership won't do that. We'll get the same approach as we did to art 50. Brexit won't be stopped but we may see Corbyn as PM. King of the ash heap.
May is finished, but that is just trivia. Politics as gossip.
go 12:02
Theresa May has spoken with Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and New Zealand’s prime minister Bill English.
A Downing Street spokesperson said the two prime ministers congratulated May on the election, which saw her party lose 13 seats and its overall majority. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Lost seats in an election she didn't need to have and plunged us into an even more unstable state...and it's said that they congratulated her?PorFavor wrote:Congratulations!
go 12:02
Theresa May has spoken with Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and New Zealand’s prime minister Bill English.
A Downing Street spokesperson said the two prime ministers congratulated May on the election, which saw her party lose 13 seats and its overall majority. (Politics Live, Guardian)