Tuesday 13th June 2017

Post by **refitman** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 6:59 am

Morning all.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 7:36 am

Morning.

Amused today by Kuenssberg uncritically repeating the goatskin excuse on Twitter...

...and Huw Edwards pointing out that it shouldn't be a reason for delay.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 7:56 am

NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Amused today by Kuenssberg uncritically repeating the goatskin excuse on Twitter...

...and Huw Edwards pointing out that it shouldn't be a reason for delay.

I wonder if May is also going to compensate the lovely Laura for loss of earnings

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 8:30 am

NonOxCol wrote:Morning.

Amused today by Kuenssberg uncritically repeating the goatskin excuse on Twitter...

...and Huw Edwards pointing out that it shouldn't be a reason for delay.

It isn't even goatskin....

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 8:32 am

May and the Tories really are like some parody super-villain with all the sophistication of a Scooby Doo fairground owner. She apologises to MPs after talking to the country like nothing happened; promises to get "us" out of a mess and is clearly referring to the party not the country; and then there's the sheer unadulterated gall of this:

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Just completely irredeemable.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 8:50 am

Have a read of this on Brexit...and the twist in the tale at the end. That was...unexpected.

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Post by **adam** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 9:31 am

UK inflation up to 2.9% against expectation of 2.7% - four-year high figure.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 9:33 am

Good morfternoon.

Inflation is up to 2.9% (Sky News).

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 9:34 am

@adam

Snap!

Post by **adam** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 9:46 am

Great comment on the politics liveblog at the graun

So, Theresa, as you talk to the DUP, are you willing to walk away? Is no deal better than a bad deal?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 9:51 am

adam wrote:UK inflation up to 2.9% against expectation of 2.7% - four-year high figure.

And what could possibly have caused this disastrous fall in our living standards, hitting the poorest hardest.

A complete mystery.....

Post by **adam** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 9:57 am

The follow up discussion on the business blog at the graun says, amongst other things...

* That BoE prediction was for inflation to peak at 2.8% in Q4 this year
* That the prediction for tomorrow's figures for wage growth is 2% so there is a significant fall in real wages developing
* That there is an expectation that inflation will continue to rise

There is also an 'it's people's actual experience of the real economy, stupid' explanation buried in there - 2015, sustained real wage growth against inflation, government win. 2017 - beginnings of real wages falling against inflation, government fail to win.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:07 am

adam wrote:The follow up discussion on the business blog at the graun says, amongst other things...

* That BoE prediction was for inflation to peak at 2.8% in Q4 this year
* That the prediction for tomorrow's figures for wage growth is 2% so there is a significant fall in real wages developing
* That there is an expectation that inflation will continue to rise

There is also an 'it's people's actual experience of the real economy, stupid' explanation buried in there - 2015, sustained real wage growth against inflation, government win. 2017 - beginnings of real wages falling against inflation, government fail to win.

Which is why the Tories window of opportunity just shut.

This is Brexit.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:09 am

The freezing of most benefits and partial freezing for the "protected";the change of uprating method to an historically lower gauge all done by Osborne,before you get to the effected targeted reduction of income by other means despite supposed minimum income quarantees,with purposeful further reductions applied to those with little or no options,indeed penalised for working in some cases;all cheered on by remainers and leavers alike.Just to give a bit of history,lest amnesia continues in the fakery of giving a shit about the less well off.

Post by **adam** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:11 am

Guardian Business Blog wrote:A Treasury spokesperson has responded to the jump in inflation, saying:
‘The government is helping families with the everyday cost of living by keeping taxes low, freezing fuel duty and increasing the National Living Wage.
A typical basic rate taxpayer now pays £1,000 less income tax than in 2010 and increases in the National Living Wage mean £1,400 extra a year for a worker since its introduction.’

There are real issues about this huge increase in the personal tax allowance over time...

* It cuts back the tax base significantly
* It encourages a lower wage base - because people's net pay will be higher with lower taxes wages are suppressed
* It has, in the last few years, effectively just juggled money for a lot of people between taxes paid and tax credits (previously known as Family Credit, previously known as Family Income Supplement, and always previously a more straightforward part of the benefits' system) received
* It is going to eventually lead to an often heard argument from the bastard classes that, well, look at all of those, down at the bottom, what are they contributing? Where are the net contributors? Why should they get so much? Where's mine?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:15 am

Oh dear...

David Allen Green‏ @davidallengreen 1m1 minute ago
More
Theresa May has just sacked half the ministers at @DExEUgov, days just before the Brexit negotiations begin.

Seriously.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:24 am

Glouestershire Children Services rated inadequate by Ofsted.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:49 am

Are the Tories in Terminal Decline?
http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot. ... cline.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The problem the Tories have is their policies have, for the last seven years, relentlessly attacked people in work, and younger people in particular. With their indifference regarding wages, security at work, job quality, house building, and their continued application of zombie austerity, they are bedding down a reflex hostility to their party that will last for longer, which is going to negatively impact their chances among these age groups, while their present support continues to die off.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 10:54 am

Apologies if repeat but delayed NHS stats from a few days ago.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/2 ... pril-2017/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:00 am

Not really a surprise given the reaction by edu people.

Tes Further Ed‏ @tesfenews 13m13 minutes ago
More
.@Halfon4Harlow "not really given a reason" as he is dismissed as apprentices and skills minister

Post by **adam** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:04 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Not really a surprise given the reaction by edu people.

Tes Further Ed‏ @tesfenews 13m13 minutes ago
More
.@Halfon4Harlow "not really given a reason" as he is dismissed as apprentices and skills minister

I've seen this with several junior ministers - thank you, you're being replaced, no real reasons. Not the way to run a minority government - the whips must be delighted.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:10 am

@Gilsey,in short no/not necessarilly,a nanosecond is a long time in politics.Personally,hoping older people die off more for party politcal reasons not particularly progressive,I prefer a more positive approach.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:18 am

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'Cos we're Tories, and that's what we do.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:23 am

Well, that's that then it would appear.

UK Education Matters‏ @SchoolDuggery 2m2 minutes ago
More
Exclusive: Further blow for grammar schools plan as Ark boss speaks out against selection https://www.tes.com/news/school-news/br ... speaks-out" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … Ark and Harris are out

Moynihan came out against it yesterday. Couldn't help thinking that he was just following the prevailing wind as he'd previously said that eh thought it would be possible.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:27 am

The next generation's Kelvin MacKenzie, it would seem...

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As in, WTF *do* you have to do to become a media pariah?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:28 am

http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2017/06/st ... um=twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The stats are in on rail privatisation… it’s not looking good.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:29 am

Some Conservatives who lost their seats are "on their uppers" (MP whose name escapes me - but he's on a lot - interviewed on Sky TV News)!

Edited - tidy up

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 11:42 am

The biggest whingers,as ever,are those that are quite happy to inflict purposeful reduction in income to those with little or no options,they have many.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:09 pm

Good piece by Rupert Myers (no idea who he is or his political leaning) on what Labour needs to do to win the next GE

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/la ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:21 pm

pk1 wrote:Good piece by Rupert Myers (no idea who he is or his political leaning) on what Labour needs to do to win the next GE

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/la ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"The central message for Labour to absorb is that they lost, and that they are a long way from victory. There is much smugness and hubris mixed in with their jubilation, and already signs that they are more interested in rubbing their result in the faces of moderates than in moving on to what they need to do to win"

Hmm.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:35 pm

To be fair,my jubilation and smugness in going blue was of epic proportions,more fucking relief that it was an exception,I fully admit I was both correct and thankfully wrong in a good way.FWIW there is some smugness and why not to a degree given landslide predictions but I see hope and more work to do in the vast majority of reactions.He needs to move on,equally IMHO.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:42 pm

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Hill" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:52 pm

Afternoon all

I can't remember who said it but I agree with the person who said that it is amazing that all those pundits who were completely wrong about the chances of Corbyn and his potential electability now feel that they have the right to opine so strongly on what he must do to take the next step

Sorry if I get a bit annoyed about that

It should also be worth mentioning that most of us on this site, excluding one or two contributors, were miles out in our predictions. I am a supporter of the Labour leadership and even I was predicting an increased Tory majority.....I didn't trust my own instincts that the Tory vote was soft or that the pollsters methodologies were wrong, even though I had drawn those conclusions already

Tem was probably the only person on here who was confident Labour would do better than predicted (and he isn't even a supporter) and there were others confidently predicting 150 seats and 20% of the vote up until fairly recently

I am fed up to read people who were consistently wrong telling the leadership they must do this, or must include that person when they have been so wrong in the past.

The article above is a case in point. Inside it are some pretty arrogant dismissals of the Labour leadership. Some snide comments about smugness and then the great pompous wisdom to say that the party 'needs Liz Kendal to be involved'. Excuse me if I say that Liz Kendall has achieved absolutely nothing and been invisible apart from occasional criticisms of the the direct ion that the leadership was taking

I agree that to get the best there are probably some people who haven't contributed much since 2010 who could be involved in the SC - I hope Ed is ready to come back and Clive Lewis would be a good addition in my opinion

A lot of the others though have not demonstrated anything to help the party recently though. They may have a contribution to make but they have to earn the right and the confidence of the leader to be called back to the front bench. He cannot ask people to come back who have resigned in a pique and criticised him as some of those proposed have done. It is up to them to show they have earned he right to come back, rather than for him to go begging them to come back

Labour did pretty well without them

As to the comment on Corbyn not being a great Commons performer. That is true to a certain extent but not as much as the author made out - in fact, how do we know? It isn't easy to seem good in the HoC with a load of petulant children sitting behind you - more eager to support the Opposition than their own 'unelectable' leader

And again we have the old meme about 'Labour can't win without Blair' - times have move on and any commentator that says that loses me completely - I read the rest with a very critical eye

So, I think political commentators should learn to have a bit of humility after their complete inability to predict the election - which is what they should be able to do. Stop telling us what we must do and perhaps make some humble suggestions.

There may be another election in 6 months and for that time Labour has to be united and focusing attack on the Tiories. Anyone else who repeats the comments of Chris Leslie should be ostracised as Clive Lewis did the other day.

Even if people do not get back on the front bench they need to get out there and support the party for whom they are a representative. There is no room for disloyalty at the moment as we may have a chance to gain power at some point soon

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:53 pm

StephenDolan wrote:
pk1 wrote:Good piece by Rupert Myers (no idea who he is or his political leaning) on what Labour needs to do to win the next GE

http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/la ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"The central message for Labour to absorb is that they lost, and that they are a long way from victory. There is much smugness and hubris mixed in with their jubilation, and already signs that they are more interested in rubbing their result in the faces of moderates than in moving on to what they need to do to win"

Hmm.

My emphasis.

It would be really helpful if that word could just disappear from the discourse.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:55 pm

[Ed Miliband has] got a new job. The former Labour leader will guest present Radio 2’s Jeremy Vine Show for the week beginning Monday 19 June, while Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, will guest present for the following. (Politics Live, Guardian)

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 12:56 pm

HindleA wrote:@Gilsey,in short no/not necessarilly,a nanosecond is a long time in politics.Personally,hoping older people die off more for party politcal reasons not particularly progressive,I prefer a more positive approach.

I agree with this.

It is still good, though, to see the blatant "culture war" approach the Tories adopted to this election blowing up in their faces.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:00 pm

Does anyone know who's involved in this DUP meeting - other than Arlene Foster, Nigel Dodds and Theresa May? Who, for instance, is Nigel Dodds' counterbalance?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:02 pm

I reserve the right to claim,the evidence is there,I was indisputably correct.on any prediction I made.I didn't actually give one elsewise that proved me indisputably wrong,(but elevating to a score draw in assumptive terms)yet.I look forward,and work towards hopefully being so indisputably wrong in the future.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:05 pm

HindleA wrote:I reserve the right to claim,the evidence is there,I was indisputably correct.on any prediction I made.I didn't actually give one elsewise that proved me indisputably wrong,(but elevating to a score draw in assumptive terms)yet.I look forward,and work towards hopefully being so indisputably wrong in the future.

I add you to my list of incredible predictors

So far

Hindle
Tem ermmmmmm that's it so far

I was shit!

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:05 pm

PorFavor wrote:Does anyone know who's involved in this DUP meeting - other than Arlene Foster, Nigel Dodds and Theresa May? Who, for instance, is Nigel Dodds' counterbalance?

Gavin Williamson, the Chief Whip, was holding talks with the DUP at the weekend so I would expect him to be at today's meeting.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:07 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:
HindleA wrote:I reserve the right to claim,the evidence is there,I was indisputably correct.on any prediction I made.I didn't actually give one elsewise that proved me indisputably wrong,(but elevating to a score draw in assumptive terms)yet.I look forward,and work towards hopefully being so indisputably wrong in the future.

I add you to my list of incredible predictors

So far

Hindle
Tem ermmmmmm that's it so far

I was shit!

I predicted Tory majority of 2, but not on here

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:08 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
HindleA wrote:I reserve the right to claim,the evidence is there,I was indisputably correct.on any prediction I made.I didn't actually give one elsewise that proved me indisputably wrong,(but elevating to a score draw in assumptive terms)yet.I look forward,and work towards hopefully being so indisputably wrong in the future.

I add you to my list of incredible predictors

So far

Hindle
Tem ermmmmmm that's it so far

I was shit!
I predicted Tory majority of 2, but not on here

I predicted that I'd be going to bed immediately after the exit poll!

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:10 pm

Ok...

Hindle
Tem
PFY
PF (although I am a bit dubious about this qualification)

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:11 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Afternoon all

I can't remember who said it but I agree with the person who said that it is amazing that all those pundits who were completely wrong about the chances of Corbyn and his potential electability now feel that they have the right to opine so strongly on what he must do to take the next step

Sorry if I get a bit annoyed about that

It should also be worth mentioning that most of us on this site, excluding one or two contributors, were miles out in our predictions. I am a supporter of the Labour leadership and even I was predicting an increased Tory majority.....I didn't trust my own instincts that the Tory vote was soft or that the pollsters methodologies were wrong, even though I had drawn those conclusions already

Tem was probably the only person on here who was confident Labour would do better than predicted (and he isn't even a supporter) and there were others confidently predicting 150 seats and 20% of the vote up until fairly recently

I am fed up to read people who were consistently wrong telling the leadership they must do this, or must include that person when they have been so wrong in the past.

The article above is a case in point. Inside it are some pretty arrogant dismissals of the Labour leadership. Some snide comments about smugness and then the great pompous wisdom to say that the party 'needs Liz Kendal to be involved'. Excuse me if I say that Liz Kendall has achieved absolutely nothing and been invisible apart from occasional criticisms of the the direct ion that the leadership was taking

I agree that to get the best there are probably some people who haven't contributed much since 2010 who could be involved in the SC - I hope Ed is ready to come back and Clive Lewis would be a good addition in my opinion

A lot of the others though have not demonstrated anything to help the party recently though. They may have a contribution to make but they have to earn the right and the confidence of the leader to be called back to the front bench. He cannot ask people to come back who have resigned in a pique and criticised him as some of those proposed have done. It is up to them to show they have earned he right to come back, rather than for him to go begging them to come back

Labour did pretty well without them

As to the comment on Corbyn not being a great Commons performer. That is true to a certain extent but not as much as the author made out - in fact, how do we know? It isn't easy to seem good in the HoC with a load of petulant children sitting behind you - more eager to support the Opposition than their own 'unelectable' leader

And again we have the old meme about 'Labour can't win without Blair' - times have move on and any commentator that says that loses me completely - I read the rest with a very critical eye

So, I think political commentators should learn to have a bit of humility after their complete inability to predict the election - which is what they should be able to do. Stop telling us what we must do and perhaps make some humble suggestions.

There may be another election in 6 months and for that time Labour has to be united and focusing attack on the Tiories. Anyone else who repeats the comments of Chris Leslie should be ostracised as Clive Lewis did the other day.

Even if people do not get back on the front bench they need to get out there and support the party for whom they are a representative. There is no room for disloyalty at the moment as we may have a chance to gain power at some point soon

I'd be amazed if JC brought anyone back, save at the junior level. They wouldn't have been generous to him if he'd lost badly, so why be generous when he has lost well.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:11 pm

I am a moderate extremist.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:15 pm

I misassumed my more local conditions/specifics/opinions expressed(I repeat send reinforcements I am being surrounded)gleaned by conversations etc more generally applied.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:21 pm

Yeah I became more optimistic in the final week of the campaign, but still thought Tory majority of 20-30 (and popular vote lead of c.5%) on the day.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:27 pm

John Major says he is 'dubious' of proposed Tory/DUP pact

And he says other parts of the UK will be angered if the deal involves Northern Ireland getting extra funding. (Politics Live, Guardian - my emphasis))

I don't think "angered" quite covers it.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:33 pm

I was only correct on my particular constituency,clarification.Not particular hard thing to call.The plant pot before Corbyn, as P M.,previously applied has yet to be proved wrong,yet.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 13 Jun, 2017 1:36 pm

Assuming May isn't a plant pot.