Thursday 15th June 2017

Post by **refitman** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 7:12 am

Morning all.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 7:51 am

Good morfternoon.

The Conservatives and the DUP have been holding back their expected announcement of a minority government deal due to the tragic events in west London. Theresa May also wants time for talks with Sinn Féin and other Northern Ireland parties because of potential implications for power-sharing in Stormont. She is expected to meet parties today at Downing Street. (Politics Live, Guardian - my emphasis)

When did the bolded bit suddenly enter her calculations? She's not mentioned it before.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 7:56 am

Morning.

FTN member - speaks for itself.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Meanwhile, the terminally clueless smugatron Matthew d'Ancona chooses today to defend austerity economics.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 9:06 am

Morning all.

After seeing that Johnson at the London Assembly clip my blood is boiling.

It's early on but I can imagine a number of local government employees have been lined up to be pushed under the bus.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 9:10 am

Morning

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 9:13 am

Was it the 2015 cladding?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and here

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... fell-tower" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A certain terrible irony in it not being 70s design but 21st century tarting up to blame.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 9:36 am

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... zwang.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Conservative zugzwang

Mainlymacro

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 9:43 am

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-fi ... 428e201ad6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **adam** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 9:56 am

Retail sales volumes across the UK plunged by 1.2% in May as inflation bites deeper into household budgets. This is a deeper fall than the 0.8% decline expected, and will fuel worries that the UK economy is faltering.

From the Graun business live blog

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:05 am

adam wrote:
Retail sales volumes across the UK plunged by 1.2% in May as inflation bites deeper into household budgets. This is a deeper fall than the 0.8% decline expected, and will fuel worries that the UK economy is faltering.
From the Graun business live blog

This is xxxxxx than expected. The last set of economic data that matched that predicted was? Erm...

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:18 am

Death toll in Grenfell Tower expected to exceed 100.

David Lammy talking of corporate manslaughter and arrests.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:21 am

Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham

If residents of Grenfell Tower want legal help with compensation and responsibility many lawyers will be happy to help. For free. I will.

Good on him, great news. The outrage in response? Not so much.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:22 am

StephenDolan wrote:Morning all.

After seeing that Johnson at the London Assembly clip my blood is boiling.

It's early on but I can imagine a number of local government employees have been lined up to be pushed under the bus.

I know there are more important things right now, but I can't see all this helping any putative future leadership campaign.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:32 am

Gov statement in Parliament this afternoon.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:37 am

Theresa May has been and gone (Kensington). She ticked the "no publicity" box. She's now back in Downing Street, apparently.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:48 am

From the writer of one of the most powerful articles I read about Hillsborough...

David Conn‏ @david_conn 24m24 minutes ago
More
The victims of this horrific disaster must not also suffer lies & blame-shifting, then have to fight years for the truth. #GrenfellTower

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:53 am

I don't believe that the press didn't get a feel for the reception that Theresa May got (unless there was a 10 mile exclusion zone). Why aren't they reporting it? From what little information that's trickling through, she didn't meet anyone who wasn't part of "officialdom". Mind you, if I were affected by the Grenfell House catastrophe, the last thing I'd want would be Theresa May.

Edited - tidy up

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:54 am

Queen's speech on for 21st June, apparently.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 10:58 am

This is good, apart from the obligatory dig at JC at the end, why do they need to do that, the article is about the tories.
The Tories’ real problem is that they are now seen as reckless gamblers
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/the ... -gamblers/#" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the Tories’ real problem was that they went into this election entirely bereft of their usual Unique Selling Point. The Conservatives were not conservative. They were not a safe pair of hands. That normal vibe the Tories exude of ‘you don’t need to love us, but at least we can hold stuff together’ was missing the entire last part. They were not, in a nutshell, a safe and lazy vote for the risk-averse. Nobody was. And thus, in an election with only mad, risky shit on offer, there was simply no particular reason for the electorate to choose the particular mad, risky shit that was wearing a blue rosette.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:06 am

Does this mean that Theresa May's meeting with the other Northern Irish parties is an irrelevance?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:26 am

PorFavor wrote:Queen's speech on for 21st June, apparently.

and...

David Blevins‏Verified account
@skydavidblevins
Follow
More
Sky sources: No agreement yet between Conservatives and DUP, despite Leader of the House confirming Queen's Speech next Wed.

Post by **adam** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:34 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Queen's speech on for 21st June, apparently.

and...

David Blevins‏Verified account
@skydavidblevins
Follow
More
Sky sources: No agreement yet between Conservatives and DUP, despite Leader of the House confirming Queen's Speech next Wed.

Majority Maths catch-up

650 MPs - 7SF - The Speaker = 642 / 2 = 321+1 = 322 for a guaranteed majority

Cons - 317
Everyone else - SF - Speaker (so everyone else -8) = 321

(I think

Labour 262
SNP 35
LibDem 12
DUP 10
IndUnionist 1
Green 1)

Would the DUP risk bringing the government down on a confidence vote and forcing another election?
What happens to deputy speakers in votes?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:36 am

adam wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Queen's speech on for 21st June, apparently.

and...

David Blevins‏Verified account
@skydavidblevins
Follow
More
Sky sources: No agreement yet between Conservatives and DUP, despite Leader of the House confirming Queen's Speech next Wed.
Majority Maths catch-up

650 MPs - 7SF - The Speaker = 642 / 2 = 321+1 = 322 for a guaranteed majority

Cons - 317
Everyone else - SF - Speaker (so everyone else -8) = 321

(I think

Labour 262
SNP 35
LibDem 12
DUP 10
IndUnionist 1
Green 1)

Would the DUP risk bringing the government down on a confidence vote and forcing another election?
What happens to deputy speakers in votes?

Deputy speakers don't vote,. You have to take them off as well.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:42 am

Two deputy speakers - one from each side so irrelevant to the maths.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:46 am

I despair at the tartan Tories making that viable for May.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 11:50 am

So, I guess everyone's seen the pic of Farage wishing POTUS a happy Birthday right?

Post by **adam** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:03 pm

My numbers don't add up - I forgot PC

Con 317
Lab 262
SNP 35
LD 12
DUP 10
SF 7
PC 4
Ind Uni 1
Green 1
Speaker 1

= 650

650 - SF - Speaker = 642 / 2 = 321 (which would be enough, the speaker would vote for the gov in a tie - not because Bercow but because tradition says so)

Lab + SNP + LD + DUP + PC + IndU + Grn = 325

- DUP (if they were to abstain) = 315

(It's unlikely to be the Queen's Speech that brings them down - they'll lose something significant along the way unless their whips are impeccably organised).

Post by **adam** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:10 pm

BofE 5/3 split decision on keeping interest rates as they are - so significant movement towards raising rates.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:13 pm

Hurd statement at 1PM.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:18 pm

DUP won't vote against the government at this stage, agreement or not.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:23 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:35 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... than-100bn" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UK student loan debt soars to more than £100bn

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:42 pm

A couple of people have posted this at the Guardian:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 85238.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just for those (like d'Ancona for instance) who still think he was a soft, liberal sort of Tory.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:47 pm

NonOxCol wrote:A couple of people have posted this at the Guardian:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 85238.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just for those (like d'Ancona for instance) who still think he was a soft, liberal sort of Tory.

Even earlier, there was his speech just after the 2011 riots. Health and safety laws to blame, apparently

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 12:55 pm

Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:00 pm

Someone, I don't remember who, said on Radio 4 yesterday that Grenfell tower was cold and damp in winter and insulated cladding was added to help remedy that.

edited to add: sorry, that does not answer your question PF

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:02 pm

Sky News is reporting that Theresa May has ordered a Public Enquiry.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:02 pm

PorFavor wrote:Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .

The manufacturers are Celotex, one of (if not the) main producers of thermal insulation boards so its main use would be insulation.

https://www.celotex.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:06 pm

Newsnight,referenced earlier worth a look,if not seen.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... tower-fire" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:11 pm

Theresa May saying that those needing rehousing will be rehoused as close to where they live now as possible. I'll wait for the "it wasn't possible to . . ." excuse.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:13 pm

PorFavor wrote:Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .

It's not effective insulation, it's my understanding it's a relatively inexpensive way to aesthetically enhance the exterior.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:16 pm

Will Patterson @WillJPatterson
·
14m

Mutterings abound that senior LibDems are to meet with Theresa May. It can't be what it looks like... Can it?!

Tim "no deals" Farron steps down and the rumour mill gets into gear. They surely wouldn't, though, would they? The Tories current hard Brexit leanings leave them further away from the Libdems than ever

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:17 pm

citizenJA wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .
It's not effective insulation, it's my understanding it's a relatively inexpensive way to aesthetically enhance the exterior.

Sorry CJA that just not right - see Celotex link above.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:18 pm

Interesting -

And here is the key takeaway.

Theresa May will try to pass the Queen’s speech even if her deal with the DUP has not by then been finalised, a Tory source has revealed. May is assuming that the DUP will not vote against the Queen’s speech, even if it does not, as she hopes, vote in favour. That is almost certainly a sound assumption (because of what the DUP has said about not wanting the Sinn Fein-supporting Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister.) But it does suggest that a Tory/DUP deal is less of a certainty than many people assumed, and the source would not rule out May trying to run a minority government without a formal deal with the DUP.

I will post more from the briefing soon. (Politics Live, Guardian)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:20 pm

There's been a flurry of activity in the Parents and Teachers for Excellent in the last few days. This lot want a 'knowledge-rich curriculum' which is fine as far as it goes but I do wonder who is stopping that happening.

And for an organisation that professes to be grassroots, installing Roger Scruton as their president seems to be a bit of an odd move.Especially when he comes out with risible self-pitying tosh like this.

https://life.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/th ... -the-blob/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One day, I trust, Gove will be back in place as education secretary, which is the post that the country needs him to fill. Meanwhile it is for the rest of us, parents and teachers especially, to bring back knowledge to the classroom. Some of us have got together to establish Parents and Teachers for Excellence, which is designed to discombobulate the Blob. Please join us.

How about re-writing the National Curriculum?

Oh. Done that.

Trouble is that having pushed for academies to have autonomy, most secondary schools can now ignore it.

It's actually pretty hilarious to see the bind that the right have got into on this one.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:23 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .
The manufacturers are Celotex, one of (if not the) main producers of thermal insulation boards so its main use would be insulation.

https://www.celotex.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apologies, my understanding of what the material was primarily used for is likely wrong then. The building is one of many in the UK built in the 1970's. The buildings are (were) safe, individual flats protected from fires started in another flat, fire doors worked, people were safe enough if they kept inside until the fire was extinguished. The exteriors of these buildings weren't pretty.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:25 pm

Oh, and the railing against the University of London got tiresome years ago. When you have an organisation that has the wondrous thing that is the Warburg Library, there isn't that much evidence of them being against knowledge.

In my narrow bit of academia, knowledge and deep learning seems to be thriving. Seminar series galore all year round (term time only of course) on every conceivable aspect - philosophy, literature, art, history etc etc.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:27 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .
It's not effective insulation, it's my understanding it's a relatively inexpensive way to aesthetically enhance the exterior.
Sorry CJA that just not right - see Celotex link above.

I've made a mistake, apologies.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:29 pm

citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Does anyone here know how effective as insulation the cladding stuff involved is? I keep hearing that, as a first-mention, it was used for cosmetic purposes and then "insulation" is always mentioned second. What I'm trying to get at is whether or not its effectivness as insulation is merely incidental to its cosmetic "value". (Insulation being of the greater benefit to residents whereas the cosmetic bit may well have been mainly for the benefit of non-residents.) Of course, I'm not trying to justify the use of crap materials if they are effective as insulation, so I hope at least somebody gets my drift . . .
The manufacturers are Celotex, one of (if not the) main producers of thermal insulation boards so its main use would be insulation.

https://www.celotex.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Apologies, my understanding of what the material was primarily used for is likely wrong then. The building is one of many in the UK built in the 1970's. The buildings are (were) safe, individual flats protected from fires started in another flat, fire doors worked, people were safe enough if they kept inside until the fire was extinguished. The exteriors of these buildings weren't pretty.

Agree, but the main use of Celotex products is insulation, the fact they "prettied them up" for aesthetic reasons is secondary. As this is not the first fire where this cladding has been used (and blamed for) I suspect Celotex are going to have some hard questions to answer.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 15 Jun, 2017 1:43 pm

Tory election research found Boris Johnson was 'deeply divisive'
Focus groups suggested foreign secretary could have negative impact after role in Brexit, with Amber Rudd scoring better

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... y-divisive" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No kidding
Money can buy a lot of things but it can't buy wisdom, compassion, love or trust