Saturday 1st and Sunday 2nd July 2017

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 01 Jul, 2017 11:30 pm

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... dment.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A completely pointless amendment

There was a lot of indignation yesterday from committed Remainers about Corbyn sacking those who supported the Chuka Umunna amendment on the Single Market. I’m a committed Remainer, but I couldn’t see what the point of the amendment was. That is because we are almost certain to leave the EU still in the Single Market.

In March I wrote that the outline of the Brexit deal was fairly clear. Crucially, there would be a longish (many years) transitional arrangement to enable a bespoke trade deal to be negotiated. During this period we would preserve our position in the customs union and Single Market (and pay money to the EU to do so). The UK side may dress this up as something a little different, if they have the wit and energy to do so and if the EU lets them, but to all intents and purposes that means nothing changes on the trade side for some time. That conclusion didn’t require any great powers of foresight at the time, but simply followed from the length of time it takes to negotiate bespoke trade deals (see, for example, Alasdair Smith here).

My only uncertainty back in March was whether May would choose (or be forced to choose) No Deal. With the election giving more power to soft Brexit elements among the Conservatives (e.g. Hammond), I think No Deal is now very unlikely because parliament will vote it down. As a result, towards the end of 2018 we will know how much we have to pay in order to formally leave the EU, but things will otherwise stay pretty much as they are now.

What about a change in Prime Minister and an election? Unless something turns up (a big if), I suspect we will see neither before the end of 2018. The least important reason for this is May would rather be known as the PM who took us out of the EU than the PM who threw away certain victory in GE2017. One reason she is unlikely to be challenged over the next year and a half is that delaying the negotiations once again (this time for a leadership contest) just looks awful. Both ex Tory Remainers and Brexiteers are nervous of how a leadership election might evolve. If May is prepared to sacrifice her two lieutenants, she will also sacrifice the foolish red lines she created for the EU negotiations.

No Conservative contest of course means no election. Once again, unless something turns up, the Conservatives will want to leave an election for as long as possible in the hope that their popularity improves. Labour will be hoping that it wins that election, so it will be in charge of the trade negotiations designed to create a bespoke trade deal, but whoever is in charge it is difficult to see any enthusiasm for replacing the Single Market.

On the Conservative side the idea that we should leave the customs union because it will enable us to negotiate lots of trade deals of our own will be increasingly recognised as the nonsense that it is. It will also be obvious that any bespoke trade deal will require the same pooling of sovereignty as the Single Market. Brexiteers never had any real interest in ending freedom of movement: that was a ploy to get a Brexit vote. If Labour were in charge they would quickly find out that the Single Market did not prevent them doing most of what they want to do, and that there were easier ways of managing free movement. The priority would be repairing the public services, a task not helped by reducing immigration and weakening our trade position, so the bespoke trade deal will get kicked into the long grass.

Of course that means ending up with a situation where nothing has changed except that the UK will have paid the EU to no longer have any influence on the rules of the Single Market it is still part of. All that time and effort for a truly epic fail. The best hope for Remainers is that this realisation will dawn on enough Conservative MPs to embolden them to demand a second referendum. (This has always been the best strategy for Remainers: to work the Condorcet paradox that was at the heart of the referendum result.) In these circumstances it would be an extraordinary act of self harm if Labour did not join them in voting for a referendum. They would instantly be on the wrong side of the triangulation which served them so well in GE2017, which would put their popularity at serious risk.

Given all this, what was the point in the amendment to the Queen’s speech saying we should stay in the Single Market, given that the occasion meant that no Tory MPs could vote for it, and we will probably be staying in the Single Market anyway? (Jonn Elledge comes to similar conclusions by a different route.) When you are a leader of the opposition who has surprised himself by completely wrong footing the pundits through a combination of a manifesto that increases the size of the state and triangulation on Brexit, wouldn’t you be annoyed by such pointless and potentially harmful distractions?

Mainly Macro

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 01 Jul, 2017 11:59 pm

To be fair,I still think the word Tories should be Twunts and nobody can tell me any different.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:12 am

Howsilly PM appears to be stuck,it was just a comment on usefulness of bookmarking,followed by waffle.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:18 am

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... -liverpool" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"My brother died at Hillsborough. At last, after 28 years, I can sleep soundly"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:48 am

http://e15initiative.org/blogs/brexit-a ... -industry/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When the UK exits the EU, it will forfeit access to the Pan-Euro-Med (PEM) cumulation zone. In this article, the author examines the potential implications of Brexit on cumulation of origin, particularly with regard to the UK textiles industry, and outlines related aspects that the UK must weigh up when defining its future relationship both with the EU and other PEM trading partners

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:50 am

http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/bu ... vention_en" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The pan-Euro-Mediterranean cumulation and the PEM Convention

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:52 am

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy ... =NARAN1507" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

EU leans toward big concession on autoparts trade with Japan

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:59 am

PM stands for Private Message clarification.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 1:02 am

Not Private Massage.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 2:05 am

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/ ... re-society" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Are the Murdochs really ‘fit and proper’ to claim the prize of fully owning Sky?
Will Hutton

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 2:19 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40471466" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UK to withdraw from international fishing arrangement

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 2:36 am

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/01/heal ... ntemail0=y" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For millions,life without medicaid services is no option.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 6:41 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... uiry-threa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Grenfell Tower survivors threaten to boycott inquiry unless scope broadened

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 6:43 am

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... rans-rally" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:43 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... ys-council" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Residents near Grenfell Tower will not have to pay rent, says council
People living in three buildings, who have been without hot water since fire, will not pay until end of January 2018

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 11:06 am

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -realities" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 12:13 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tewart-lee" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 1:22 pm

There's a really useful guide to Brexit options in the following Telegraph article. Could have done with more of this before the referendum:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... d-now/amp/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Remain 'would win Brexit referendum if held now'

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 1:33 pm

Just a relief to see someone apart from the indefatigable AH posting today, tbh

Where is everybody??

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 1:47 pm

And then there's this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... lapse.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Britain 'is on the brink of the worst house price collapse since 1990s': Experts predict property costs could plunge by FORTY PER CENT

I have long questioned whether the economy can truly recover from the 2008 crash without a proper bottoming out in the housing market and an adjustment to more affordable levels and whether it was possible for the Tories to artificially prop up house prices at unrealistic levels indefinitely. It's possible we may be getting closer to finding out.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 1:49 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Just a relief to see someone apart from the indefatigable AH posting today, tbh

Where is everybody??

Enjoying the lovely weather, I expect. Whereas I'm avoiding the ironing, such is my exciting life.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 2:02 pm

Willow904 wrote:And then there's this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... lapse.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Britain 'is on the brink of the worst house price collapse since 1990s': Experts predict property costs could plunge by FORTY PER CENT

I have long questioned whether the economy can truly recover from the 2008 crash without a proper bottoming out in the housing market and an adjustment to more affordable levels and whether it was possible for the Tories to artificially prop up house prices at unrealistic levels indefinitely. It's possible we may be getting closer to finding out.

I saw that, and I thought of you.

The 1990s recession was the one we didn't really notice here in the north east, unlike the appalling 80s one. That was my experience anyway.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 4:00 pm

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... orce-bill/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Downing Street has told business leaders that Theresa May could storm out of Brexit talks over the “divorce bill”, The Telegraph can reveal.

A senior No 10 figure briefed industry and City bosses to prepare for the Prime Minister walking away from negotiations in September.

I can't access the whole article, but I doubt it gets any more sensible. Where did all the grown-ups go?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 4:05 pm

You're not supposed to make it *that* obvious, you know.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 4:39 pm

Willow904 wrote:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... orce-bill/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Downing Street has told business leaders that Theresa May could storm out of Brexit talks over the “divorce bill”, The Telegraph can reveal.

A senior No 10 figure briefed industry and City bosses to prepare for the Prime Minister walking away from negotiations in September.
I can't access the whole article, but I doubt it gets any more sensible. Where did all the grown-ups go?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tings.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A top Downing Street figure is said to have briefed industry and City bosses to prepare them for news of the PM's explosive row with Brussels
later this year.
The move was reportedly being orchestrated for 'domestic consumption' as the beleaguered PM tries to get back on the front foot and drum up some support in the wake of the election disaster.

I'm guessing the article contents similar to the telegraph.
Maybe time to try extreme ironing? Others on ftn may be able to provide tips.

Edited, out of paranoia caused by not fully understanding, later references to Galloway.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 4:45 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 17981.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Schoolchildren in France are being taught that the EU only has 27 member states, in an indication that the country has already begun to purge the UK from the bloc.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 4:46 pm

@tinybgoat

Thanks. As expected, it doesn't get any better. This looks like a pretty damaging leak. Why are the Mail and Telegraph playing along? They inexplicably had the knives out for her during the election campaign too. What on earth is going on?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 4:59 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rs-tell-eu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

May's Brexit plan will hit rights of Britons abroad, campaigners tell EU
British in Europe and the3million say UK proposal would severely reduce the rights enjoyed by Britons living in Europe

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 5:01 pm

'We might have won election if I had been Labour leader', Owen Smith claims

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... th-claims/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Asked this morning on Sky's Sophy Ridge on Sunday whether he would have done as well as Mr
Corbyn, he said: "I don't know, I hope so.
"I hope I might have even got us to win, but I can't know that, Sophy.

Seeing as he stood against Corbyn, so presumably felt he could do as good, if not better job at the time,
i don't think there's anything wrong with what he's said, but it's easy to quote out of context.
I think he's sounded quite impressive recently(though I voted for Corbyn last year)

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 5:21 pm

Willow904 wrote:@tinybgoat

Thanks. As expected, it doesn't get any better. This looks like a pretty damaging leak. Why are the Mail and Telegraph playing along? They inexplicably had the knives out for her during the election campaign too. What on earth is going on?

No idea, unless they're trying to make EU lose patience with us, in hope it leads to no deal being achieved, whereas May is actually aiming for a deal (though evidence possibly goes against this)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 5:23 pm

Think I've been Gallowayised.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 5:24 pm

"Remove/delete that post,you may very well regret it."

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 6:03 pm

Cough Syrup?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 6:07 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/ ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How Paul Robeson found his political voice in the Welsh valleys

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 6:58 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gotiations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

British officials drop 'cake and eat it' approach to Brexit negotiations
Insiders reveal previously muted economic arguments resurface, shifting mood towards ‘realism’, but Brexit secretary aide denies change of strategy

First sign the Tories are eyeing up a soft Brexit after all?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:47 pm

Tarquin repainted and is now known as the Red Avenger,at his request.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:47 pm

Owen Smith deserves respect for actually standing and, while I still think it was a silly distraction, I hold him in infinitely higher regard than the chicken coup brigade. At least he allowed the decisive second victory and a chance to move on.

No I didn't vote for him, but I was delighted to see him join Corbyn's team.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:48 pm

Even got an "R" on his cap,the scamp,

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:50 pm

Tarquin,not Owen Smith(as far as I know)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:52 pm

To be fair,my constituency would have most likely turned blue,regardless, for various reasons.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:53 pm

Apparently moving a sign doesn't count as far as "borders" go but it was worth a try.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 9:56 pm

Nor were they convinced it moved itself

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:03 pm

Clock still maintaining it is fours ago,it is radio controlled from Rugby I think.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:05 pm

The SH of the clock World?

I jest.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:07 pm

THough Bob Dylan also incorrect on his "it ends at the shore" theorem

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:07 pm

HindleA wrote:Apparently moving a sign doesn't count as far as "borders" go but it was worth a try.

Time for a Plan B ?

https://www.bce2018.org.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Boundary Commission for England is conducting a review of parliamentary constituencies and needs your help. On this site you can view our proposals, make comments, see what other people have said and learn about us and the review.

https://jobs.theguardian.com/employer/4 ... r-england/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LOCAL GOVERNMENT BOUNDARY COMMISSION FOR ENGLAND last advertised a job 1 week ago. Be the first to hear of their future vacancies by signing up now for a job alert

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:34 pm

Brexit: Nearly 60% of Leave voters would now pay to retain EU citizenship
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 19001.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
the country is mad

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:36 pm

“It shows that young people are very attached to their European citizenship. These are people who were born in a world with 28 member states and more than 500 million people – suddenly, their world has got much smaller.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:54 pm

Among 18- to 24-year-olds, the poll found 85 per cent want to keep their EU citizenship when the UK officially withdraws from the bloc.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 02 Jul, 2017 10:56 pm

Theresa May could storm out of Brexit negotiations to show voters at home she is willing to be tough with the EU over Britain's divorce bill.

The Prime Minister is preparing a dramatic walk-out in September over the bill, thought to be in the region of £87 billion, it has been claimed, as business leaders were told Ms May was trying to “be as hard-nosed, as hard-headed and as cold-eyed about this as it is possible to be”.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 18961.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Barking
(cue Adam and PF)