Saturday September 27th & Sunday 28th September 2014

[letsskiptotheleft]

Percentages of UKIP votes at present, 43% from the Tories, 15% from the LD's and 10% from Labour, those who switched from the Libs to Labour, some 30% seem to be keeping put..

[frightful_oik]

Marr giving Cameron a tough time. NOT!

[TheGrimSqueaker]

There's a meme around that the Mirror's entrapment of Newmark is unjustified. Andrew's just queried it for example.

I'm not so sure. This guy is the founding Chair of Women2Win a group dedicated to getting more female Tory MPs elected. Is it really OK for him to be chatting up female activists on-line? Inviting them for tea at his offices etc.?

I can't condone the entrapment. I can't condemn the way the Press (and the BBC) behave with their doorstepping, misrepresentation and smearing, saying that I hope Ed enacts Leveson's recommendations in full, and then say "ah, but this one is alright, because it was a slimy Tory who got caught out". However ......

I'm not upset Nomark has been forced to resign. As you say, his involvement with Women2Win now has to be looked upon with a degree of suspicion (leaving aside the fact that it is exactly the sort of organisation he was so recently condemning); and any MP should have the sense to keep it zipped with 'that' enquiry hanging over their heads. But, as a Tory, the only sense he possesses is one of entitlement, so I guess he thought this acceptable behaviour.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Can we lib a tweet in Marr's general direction.

If you roll over some more Cameron will tickle your tummy and plug your book

[yahyah]

Can we lib a tweet in Marr's general direction.

If you roll over some more Cameron will tickle your tummy and plug your book

& the tax payer will pay for the reception [except the canapes, paid for by a stroke charity].

[yahyah]

Sorry, double posted and couldn't delete it

[RogerOThornhill]

Here's the bit in the Mirror as to why Newmark was targeted.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/to ... ts-4335398

The male reporter, a freelance ­journalist who passed the information to the Sunday Mirror, was carrying out an undercover probe into claims by sources that MPs were using social media networks to meet women.

[TechnicalEphemera]

There's a meme around that the Mirror's entrapment of Newmark is unjustified. Andrew's just queried it for example.

I'm not so sure. This guy is the founding Chair of Women2Win a group dedicated to getting more female Tory MPs elected. Is it really OK for him to be chatting up female activists on-line? Inviting them for tea at his offices etc.?

I'm wondering if he had a bit of form for this, that's what got the Mirror interested, it's not the kind of you initiate otherwise is it?

Exactly. Why target Newmark particularly? Unless they were just doing a fishing expedition on a large number of MPs. I suppose it might be connected to his Women2Win post, though that would be a bit of a stretch. Moreover, I dare say at least some of those moaning were the same people who were arguing against the Leveson recommendations.

I don't think this is in the Fake Sheikh league when it comes to entrapment, although I can't say it's my preferred form of journalism. And I tend towards the view that people's private lives are their own business these days - it's not like Back to Basics where there was a distinct campaign of moral rectitude contrasting sharply with what the people espousing it were getting up to. But ultimately I struggle not to enjoy Cameron's discomfort. It is feeling a bit like the chaos-strewn last days of the Major government.

Yet DFH still thinks this shower is going to achieve a parliamentary majority...

Well there is a fundamental issue about Cameron's mandatory porn ( and anything he doesn't like) filters and censorship campaign - Think of the Children(TM)

So using the internet to send explicit photos isn't smart. Also a blackmail opportunity - unless he posts them online and mails out a link to everybody telling them they are there.

[AngryAsWell]

EXCLUSIVE: Tory MP Elizabeth Truss says scrap fox hunting ban

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... n-scrapped" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This will lose more votes than it gains.



(Morning)

[rebeccariots2]

Morning all.

Am I going potty - or is it Andrew Sparrow? It could be both of us, I suppose.

Top of his blog ...
10.06 I’m sorry comments were left off earlier. That was a mistake. They’re on now.

Not for me they ain't. Anyone else still seeing an absence of comments facility?

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Not for me they ain't. Anyone else still seeing an absence of comments facility?

Me. Permanently.

[AngryAsWell]

Not for me they ain't. Anyone else still seeing an absence of comments facility?

Me. Permanently.

Closed here as well

[AngryAsWell]

Not for me they ain't. Anyone else still seeing an absence of comments facility?

Me. Permanently.

Closed here as well

Now open

[rebeccariots2]

EXCLUSIVE: Tory MP Elizabeth Truss says scrap fox hunting ban

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... n-scrapped" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This will lose more votes than it gains.



(Morning)

They just don't give a shit how toxic they are, do they. It's all about pandering to the killing lobby.

It just makes me a bit more determined to have more of a chat to the young hunt sabs we've been working with - who told me they don't vote - to tell them why this time their vote might matter even more.

By the way - if anyone ever needed to have their faith restored in the ability of young people to know right from wrong, act on principles, and be essentially very good human beings .... join the hunt sabs. Never met such a bunch of gooduns.

[rebeccariots2]

Andrew Sparrow 10.47

Finally the comments have been switched on. I thought I had put them on earlier, but forgot the press the right button. I’m very sorry about that.

[Spacedone]

I'm pretty liberal when it comes to thing like nudity and what consenting adults can do, even on social media, so from that point of view I don't really care what Newmark was doing and don't think it's really good journalism. However because this bloke recent told charities to be silent on political issues I do fully intend to enjoy the moment... if that makes me a hypocrite so be it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Well, all the hate-Labour pieces in today's Observer are looking a bit silly now, aren't they?

(an exception for Cadwalladr's piece, genuinely insightful and readable rather than just sneering)

[ErnstRemarx]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

[ErnstRemarx]

From the Observer, regarding Brooks Nomark:

"Newmark, who studied at Harvard and Oxford, is on the board of the Harvard Alumni Association and co-founded Women2Win, which encourages women into politics and public service. He has written several papers on government debt, including Simply Red: the True State of the Public Finances (2006) and The Price of Irresponsibility (2008)."

Lovin' it.

[frightful_oik]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

It's not just you.

[AngryAsWell]

James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth · 2h
Senior Tories now regard @danhannanmep defection as a question of when not if. Word is he’s gone dark since Reckless’ quit

Fingers crossed

[AngryAsWell]

Just added this to Features and Analysis
Timeline: Credit crunch to downturn
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7521250.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting reading

[RogerOThornhill]

James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth · 2h
Senior Tories now regard @danhannanmep defection as a question of when not if. Word is he’s gone dark since Reckless’ quit

Fingers crossed

James Forsyth @JGForsyth · 2h
So, @DanHannanMEP has just tweeted that while he respects Reckless, he won’t be defecting to Ukip

So that'll be tomorrow then.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Must have been five polls by now. Is NickyB still insisting that the Labour lead is "stuck at 3 1/2"?

[howsillyofme1]

yahyah

Your idea is back in play!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... xury-goods" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[LadyCentauria]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

Who was the presenter/reporter/correspondent whose puppet on Spitting Image finished every question he/it asked with, "Grovel grovel! Smarm, smarm!"? Do you remember? I can see him but can't remember the name...

[letsskiptotheleft]

Must have been five polls by now. Is NickyB still insisting that the Labour lead is "stuck at 3 1/2"?

Ashcroft mega poll out at 2pm, 8000 polled, think there's quite a bit of data from marginal seats too?

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

Who was the presenter/reporter/correspondent whose puppet on Spitting Image finished every question he/it asked with, "Grovel grovel! Smarm, smarm!"? Do you remember? I can see him but can't remember the name...

Alistair Burnett?

[howsillyofme1]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

Who was the presenter/reporter/correspondent whose puppet on Spitting Image finished every question he/it asked with, "Grovel grovel! Smarm, smarm!"? Do you remember? I can see him but can't remember the name...

Alastair Burnet (Sir)?

[howsillyofme1]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

Who was the presenter/reporter/correspondent whose puppet on Spitting Image finished every question he/it asked with, "Grovel grovel! Smarm, smarm!"? Do you remember? I can see him but can't remember the name...

Alistair Burnett?

I am toooo slow!

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Who was the presenter/reporter/correspondent whose puppet on Spitting Image finished every question he/it asked with, "Grovel grovel! Smarm, smarm!"? Do you remember? I can see him but can't remember the name...

Alistair Burnett?

I am toooo slow!

[letsskiptotheleft]

David Davis says the threat from UKIP in the Midlands and the North in regards is ''really quite serious'' I assume he means by letting Labour through the middle?

[PorFavor]

Good afternoon.

The quote below is from Mark Reckless speaking on the Andrew Marr "Show", earlier today.

You heard the prime minister just now say the Conservative-led government was dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is we’ve increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour managed in 13 and immigration is now back up to the levels we saw under Labour. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian - my emphasis)

Debt, deficit - which is it? No wonder there's confusion amongst the public. Andrew Marr should have at least ironed out this point.

(And I love to hear the Government getting a panning on air - especially from someone who was so recently (sort of) one of their own - as much as anyone else.)

[RogerOThornhill]

Good afternoon.

The quote below is from Mark Reckless speaking on the Andrew Marr "Show", earlier today.

You heard the prime minister just now say the Conservative-led government was dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is we’ve increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour managed in 13 and immigration is now back up to the levels we saw under Labour. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian - my emphasis)

Debt, deficit - which is it? No wonder there's confusion amongst the public. Andrew Marr should have at least ironed out this point.

(And I love to hear the Government getting a panning on air - especially from someone who was so recently (sort of) one of their own - as much as anyone else.)

It's debt.

Although the annual deficit is reducing very s-l-o-w-l-y, overall debt is still rising.

[ErnstRemarx]

Just added this to Features and Analysis
Timeline: Credit crunch to downturn
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7521250.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting reading

Alistair Darling's "Back from the Brink" has an excellent account of the whole sorry mess. A definite must read.

[PorFavor]

Good afternoon.

The quote below is from Mark Reckless speaking on the Andrew Marr "Show", earlier today.

You heard the prime minister just now say the Conservative-led government was dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is we’ve increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour managed in 13 and immigration is now back up to the levels we saw under Labour. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian - my emphasis)

Debt, deficit - which is it? No wonder there's confusion amongst the public. Andrew Marr should have at least ironed out this point.

(And I love to hear the Government getting a panning on air - especially from someone who was so recently (sort of) one of their own - as much as anyone else.)

It's debt.

Although the annual deficit is reducing very s-l-o-w-l-y, overall debt is still rising.

Hello. Thanks for the clarification but I knew that, actually - but it doesn't help the debate to allow politicians to keep confusing the issue, was really my rather vague and ill-made point.

[ErnstRemarx]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... conference" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Veh good.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Just added this to Features and Analysis
Timeline: Credit crunch to downturn
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7521250.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting reading

Alistair Darling's "Back from the Brink" has an excellent account of the whole sorry mess. A definite must read.

It is an excellent read. If only he was back as Shadow Chancellor in readiness for next May?

[tinyclanger2]

http://www.anorak.co.uk/407556/politici ... amas.html/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

good lord

[PorFavor]

I see (over at the Andrew Sparrow, Guardian, blog) that Grant Shapps is claiming that Conservative Party membership is up by 12%.

Go on then - prove it. Publish and be damned! (Well, be proved not to be, er, furnishing us with facts, anyway.)

[ErnstRemarx]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... conference

Veh good.

I'd go as far as to say one of the best political articles I've read in a long time. I know the Labour party reasonably well, and can attest that the further up the greasy pole people are, the more remote their backgrounds from the experience of millions. Also, it's worth considering the selection process. Whilst I don't like the NEC conducted selections such as M&H, it's still better than the long drawn out selection process for most constituencies where candidates from non-professional backgrounds in jobs that they can't just put on pause when they want to (as lawyers, etc can) for a couple of months to seek selection. A male candidate can get the constituency membership list and just go round knocking on doors regardless. I don't think that many female candidates would necessarily feel that safe doing so.

I've recounted before my meeting Richard Angel of Progress - one of the directors, no less - at a curry night a few years back. His trajectory - PPE at Oxford, spaddy post for some MP, blah, blah - was as predictable as his certainty that he'd soon be an MP. His attitude was that this was how it was, and quite acceptable. You may be unsurprised to learn that I had to move tables before I decked him.

[refitman]

I see (over at the Andrew Sparrow, Guardian, blog) that Grant Shapps is claiming that Conservative Party membership is up by 12%.

Go on then - prove it. Publish and be damned! (Well, be proved not to be, er, furnishing us with facts, anyway.)

It's still down on the ~250,000 members, when Cameron took the leadership.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... power.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(Old article but has 2005 figures)

[LadyCentauria]

Marr was disgraceful this morning. I was struck by how easy a time he gave Cameron, allowing him to sloganise and propagandise to his heart's content.

No difficult questioning, instant acceptance of anything Cameron said. No incredulity regarding the latest plan to further cut benefits for the worst off, Cameron never interrupted, "thank you so much prime minister".

It's not just me is it? That was supine arse licking of the most grovelling nature.

Who was the presenter/reporter/correspondent whose puppet on Spitting Image finished every question he/it asked with, "Grovel grovel! Smarm, smarm!"? Do you remember? I can see him but can't remember the name...

Alistair Burnett?

That's the one! Thanks all!

[tinyclanger2]

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/column ... s-promises" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Even for the Express this seems to have been written by someone who is ten.

an unblinking, die-hard minority of the electorate who clearly see us all in the future wearing boiler suits, riding bicycles and hearing about increased tractor production.

By which they mean the likes of us. Mind you. To be fair. You can't get me off tractors for long.

[ErnstRemarx]

Another thought about prospective MPs.

There are plenty of people who are happy to slag off Labour for having trade union sponsored MPs (well actually for having any vestige of a link to ordinary working people), but it shouldn't be forgotten that most trade union MPs have to earn the sponsorship that they enjoy, and it's not exactly the sort of route that most wonks would consider. Broadly speaking, a union isn't (unless it's desperate) going to sponsor anyone who isn't a good trade unionist and a working person.

Speaking of MPs, I was off in Middleton yesterday canvassing for Liz McInnes, and had the pleasure of meeting her - she's tiny! Didn't get a chance to talk in any depth, but passed on MsRemarx' regards (they go back a long way in Unite) and went off tramping the streets. Good fun, one or two converts and only one rude bastard (who's not even on the electoral register, har de hah). Will probably be out again this next week as she's worth supporting, I loathe UKIP with a passion plus it'll be nice to see the Tory cry when he's stomped to oblivion.

[ErnstRemarx]

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/column ... s-promises

Even for the Express this seems to have been written by someone who is ten.

an unblinking, die-hard minority of the electorate who clearly see us all in the future wearing boiler suits, riding bicycles and hearing about increased tractor production.

By which they mean the likes of us. Mind you. To be fair. You can't get me off tractors for long.

Ah, but that's the Excess innit? Anything to the left of Enoch Powell is viewed with horror and suspicion, and let's face it, the sick, disabled and unemployed deserve everything they get don't they?

[PorFavor]

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/column ... s-promises

Even for the Express this seems to have been written by someone who is ten.

an unblinking, die-hard minority of the electorate who clearly see us all in the future wearing boiler suits, riding bicycles and hearing about increased tractor production.

By which they mean the likes of us. Mind you. To be fair. You can't get me off tractors for long.

And try parting me from my off-the-shoulder boiler suit. Great for any formal evening out (note to self: don't forget to remove bicycle clips on arrival at next gala event. I forgot last time. What a social gaffe that was! I thought I'd never live it down.)

[LadyCentauria]

..."more members than the Primrose League..." says Grant Shapps, about 17 mins into his speech at tory Conference. So that's around a million, then. Rather a long way down on the circa three million they had in the fifties. And rather a lot more than their subscription income can account for, in ordinary circumstances. But, it just could be 'true' if he's including a vast number of people (if they exist) who might have signed up to their current 'join Team2015 for free in return for campaigning' scheme' – which might or might not actually count as full membership of the Conservative and Unionist Party...

For 2013, the Conservative Party had an income of £25.4 million, of which £749,000 came from membership subscriptions

The membership fee for the Conservative Party is £25, or £5 if the member is under the age of 23. From April 2013 people could join Team2015 without being Party members, and take part in political campaigning for the party in the 2015 general election.

Source for both quotes-in-boxes, Wikipedia, today.

[PorFavor]

From Andrew Sparrow (Guardian) -

Lord Ashcroft says his polling suggests Labour heading for majority

While Grant Shapps speaks, Lord Ashcroft is unveiling some fresh polling about the party’s prospects at a fringe meeting.

I’ll post a link to the full findings when they’re up on his site. In the meantime, here are some of the highlights from the meeting.

[Spacedone]

Kiran Stacey ‏@kiranstacey 20m

Amazing stat from @LordAshcroft: half of the ppl the Tories will target nxt yr believe austerity is no longer or was never needed.

Rowena Mason ‏@rowenamason 27 mins

Only 63% of people who voted Tory last time are planning to do so again, Lord Ashcroft says