Friday 14th July 2017

Post by **refitman** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:10 am

Morning all.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:51 am

Morning all.

School meeting in 20 mins and then off to the library so won't be around until late.

Everyone else having a long lie in?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:55 am

Not here. School run as per usual.

@tinybgoat.

Thanks for the link posted last night, it was an interesting article. Just tweeted it this morning and there was quite a flurry of interest (by my twitter standards, anyway!).

For those who missed it yesterday:

http://theconversation.com/british-publ ... inds-80985" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

British public open to compromise on Brexit deal, new research finds

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 9:52 am

Willow904 wrote:Not here. School run as per usual.

@tinybgoat.

Thanks for the link posted last night, it was an interesting article. Just tweeted it this morning and there was quite a flurry of interest (by my twitter standards, anyway!).

For those who missed it yesterday:

http://theconversation.com/british-publ ... inds-80985" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
British public open to compromise on Brexit deal, new research finds

Yes very interesting. Thanks.

Ironically most of the things people in this study want from the EU they can already have

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:42 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Not here. School run as per usual.

@tinybgoat.

Thanks for the link posted last night, it was an interesting article. Just tweeted it this morning and there was quite a flurry of interest (by my twitter standards, anyway!).

For those who missed it yesterday:

http://theconversation.com/british-publ ... inds-80985" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
British public open to compromise on Brexit deal, new research finds
Yes very interesting. Thanks.

Ironically most of the things people in this study want from the EU they can already have

I find it interesting that of the things we would need to leave the EU to do, making our own trade deals was the one with the most support. It's certainly a theme often visited by Tory ministers who support Brexit, but it doesn't feel especially in step with the media narrative of the "left behind" working classes. It feels closer to the concerns of small business owners, to me, who were once the main supporters of Ukip back in the early days when red tape rather than immigration was the main Ukip focus.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 11:03 am

The article itself is not quite as damning, but the headline is simply sublime in its irony. Oh how the Tories have fallen from grace:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -recession" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UK public finances face twin threat from Brexit and downturn, says OBR
Budget watchdog warns country is in worse shape to withstand recession than on the eve of 2007 financial crash

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 11:15 am

But they are COMPETENT, you know?

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 11:31 am

Cameron and Osborne were certainly competent at giving the impression of being competent.

Theresa May, not so much.

I'm worried about the Brexit survey findings above though. It suggests to me, as I've always suspected, that hard Brexit supporters are generally more likely to be natural Tory supporters and as such the Tories have more to lose from failing to deliver a full break from the EU. Put together with a large chunk of Tory donor money coming from hedge funds and there is a lot of pressure on May to deliver her vision of Brexit no matter what.

Hope rests in the hands of pro-EU Tory rebels - not the most reliable bunch, unfortunately.

Post by **adam** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 12:57 pm

Comment from somewhere last night, probably within daily politics in the graun - parliament sits for 290 days before we leave the EU.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 1:05 pm

adam wrote:Comment from somewhere last night, probably within daily politics in the graun - parliament sits for 290 days before we leave the EU.

Taking back control.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 2:20 pm

Interesting on the appalling Tom Watson's role in Labour's unprincipled position on the EU.

https://shirazsocialist.wordpress.com/2 ... -movement/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 2:22 pm

Willow904 wrote:The article itself is not quite as damning, but the headline is simply sublime in its irony. Oh how the Tories have fallen from grace:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -recession" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UK public finances face twin threat from Brexit and downturn, says OBR
Budget watchdog warns country is in worse shape to withstand recession than on the eve of 2007 financial crash

You shouldn't really be trumpeting the OBR.

The deficit (and hence the debt) should have been much higher considering rates are at zero. The OBR is worrying needlessly, and doing damage.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 2:40 pm

Well, I certainly agree that Watson isn't great (and voted for Creasy, in case anyone has forgotten)

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 3:39 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well, I certainly agree that Watson isn't great (and voted for Creasy, in case anyone has forgotten)

Poor old Stella. Must be miserable being her. She should quit and do something else as she's going nowhere fast.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 4:10 pm

Actually, she has already achieved something real and positive since the GE. Just compare what she did on the QS with that preening, amoral opportunist Chuka.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 4:28 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Actually, she has already achieved something real and positive since the GE. Just compare what she did on the QS with that preening, amoral opportunist Chuka.

Another who should quit, but because of his sex gets nowhere near the levels of grief she gets. They're in the wrong party poor sods.

Happy to repeat my contempt for those like Chuka who say they're campaigning to remain in the single market, but who voted for art 50 without conditions.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 5:25 pm

https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2017/0 ... ughts/amp/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Few pieces of legislation have been as keenly awaited in the recent past as the “Great Repeal Bill” — or, as it is now more soberly known, the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill. A great deal will be written and said about the Bill as it progresses through Parliament. The modest aims of this post are to draw attention to (what seem to me to be) the key elements of the Bill, and to note some of the difficult questions — and likely political and constitutional controversies — to which it will give rise.

I found this assessment of the repeal bill relatively readable for a legal piece. Though there will be attempts to amend this bill, and the article makes some suggestions of areas MPs might want to try to amend, ultimately it would be risky not to vote it through. We are likely to have a Tory government for the entirety of the Brexit process and there really is no relying on them to be sensible, competent or responsible in their actions:

Thus if LCMs [legislative consent motions] are not forthcoming, then the UK Parliament would be legally free to press ahead with the enactment of the Withdrawal Bill in spite of devolved opposition. To say that that would be political folly would be a gross understatement. But the risks for the devolved nations are considerable as well, given than derailment of the Bill by the devolved nations might plunge the UK into utter chaos if it were to leave the EU without having the Withdrawal Bill in place. Leaving without a withdrawal agreement has so far been considered to be the hardest of “hard” Brexits; leaving without a withdrawal agreement and without a Withdrawal Bill would result in chaos on an almost unimaginable scale. Thus a high-stakes game of constitutional brinksmanship is likely in the offing, but it is ultimately in no-one’s interests for the Withdrawal Bill not to be enacted.

There has been much talk of whether or not it is possible to unilaterally revoke article 50. Perhaps we should also consider whether or not the government would actually choose to revoke it, even if they could. Parliament may wish to reject the negotiated exit deal and remain in, but would they ultimately have any power to compel the government to do so? Is crashing out a phantom, a threat devoid of power because the damage to the government is too great for it to be a genuine possibility? I would say yes. On the other hand, if it isn't possible to unilaterally revoke article 50, the threat of crashing out becomes a far more real threat and thus options become more limited, not just for the opposition, but possibly also the government, as not passing this Bill, in some form or other, becomes an unthinkable option for everyone.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 5:32 pm

Following on from above, I'm wondering if how hardball the government plays on the repeal bill could be a clue as to ultimate strategy.

The more conciliatory the government is to get this bill through, the more serious they are in their intent to deliver Brexit I suspect.

If they risk defeat, I would interpret that as a willingness to pull the plug on the whole thing at some point if things aren't going the way they want.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 5:58 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Actually, she has already achieved something real and positive since the GE. Just compare what she did on the QS with that preening, amoral opportunist Chuka.
Another who should quit, but because of his sex gets nowhere near the levels of grief she gets. They're in the wrong party poor sods.

She very definitely isn't. He, well..........

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 6:00 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Actually, she has already achieved something real and positive since the GE. Just compare what she did on the QS with that preening, amoral opportunist Chuka.
Another who should quit, but because of his sex gets nowhere near the levels of grief she gets. They're in the wrong party poor sods.
She very definitely isn't. He, well..........

She'll be deselected eventually. Her CLP will get her. He'll give up I expect.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 6:13 pm

Nah, I think that scare (which it always was, mostly) has run its course. She got an incredible 80% at the GE, the seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:05 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Nah, I think that scare (which it always was, mostly) has run its course. She got an incredible 80% at the GE, the seat is hers for as long as she wants it.

Oh no. That isn't the way this story continues.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:23 pm

Yeah, if there's one thing you understand better than me its how the Labour party works and its culture

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:26 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Yeah, if there's one thing you understand better than me its how the Labour party works and its culture

Today is a time of peace and loveliness. We just had an election where Labour did better than expected.

But. Tomorrow will bring a vote on an international relations matter, a Syria or Iraq, and Creasy will be on the wrong side again. Then they will come, and win this time.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:36 pm

Yes of course I know there will be spats and tensions.

But those who have shown they are willing to be constructive - even if they remain sceptical of Corbynism in important respects - are not going to be targeted for deselection.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:37 pm

Can I suggest that Hugo worries about a party that he supports rather than one he doesn't

You don't live in her constituency, you don't support her party and you most certainly aren't a member of her party.....I am sure Stella Creasy can look after herself

I would just suggest that some Labour members need to just be more respectful of the general membership of the party and the direction it has moved in the last year - if they cannot live with that then no-one is forcing them to stay.....and i think it is also unlikely we will see a raft of deselections either

Hugo of course will know better despite him having no links to the Labour Party at all and a proven record of being wrong on virtually any subject he opines on

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:44 pm

Good morfternoon.

Does anyone here have any news on how ephemerid got on yesterday, please? I gathered that she intended posting a report-back on another site (although it may be too soon,yet). I hope it went ok for her.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:47 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Can I suggest that Hugo worries about a party that he supports rather than one he doesn't

You don't live in her constituency, you don't support her party and you most certainly aren't a member of her party.....I am sure Stella Creasy can look after herself

I would just suggest that some Labour members need to just be more respectful of the general membership of the party and the direction it has moved in the last year - if they cannot live with that then no-one is forcing them to stay.....and i think it is also unlikely we will see a raft of deselections either

Hugo of course will know better despite him having no links to the Labour Party at all and a proven record of being wrong on virtually any subject he opines on

You mean in the way that everyone else takes a vow of silence on the Tories?

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:55 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Can I suggest that Hugo worries about a party that he supports rather than one he doesn't

You don't live in her constituency, you don't support her party and you most certainly aren't a member of her party.....I am sure Stella Creasy can look after herself

I would just suggest that some Labour members need to just be more respectful of the general membership of the party and the direction it has moved in the last year - if they cannot live with that then no-one is forcing them to stay.....and i think it is also unlikely we will see a raft of deselections either

Hugo of course will know better despite him having no links to the Labour Party at all and a proven record of being wrong on virtually any subject he opines on

You mean in the way that everyone else takes a vow of silence on the Tories?

Well you do.....

A Tory member would be within their rights to say the same about the internal workings of their party - but you aren't one of them either - or so you say. Of course, if we do talk about what the Tory internal politics then it is mainly speculation and we have to accept that

You, however, keep telling us members of the Labour Party what is happening in our own party.....I am not sure where you get your knowledge from but your track record of being wrong doesn't seem to stop you

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 7:56 pm

PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Does anyone here have any news on how ephemerid got on yesterday, please? I gathered that she intended posting a report-back on another site (although it may be too soon,yet). I hope it went ok for her.

Hi PF

Apparently a bit unclear and inconclusive - she posted something yesterday on the other site (1st page if I remember) if you want to pop across to read it

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:01 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Does anyone here have any news on how ephemerid got on yesterday, please? I gathered that she intended posting a report-back on another site (although it may be too soon,yet). I hope it went ok for her.
Hi PF

Apparently a bit unclear and inconclusive - she posted something yesterday on the other site (1st page if I remember) if you want to pop across to read it

Thanks - but you'll have to tell me where to go. So to speak.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:09 pm

Mr Steel from last week:

Conservatives like to explain the economy as if it’s a household, so to make this simple, it’s like a family saying, “From now on, instead of spending thousands of pounds a week on Dad’s high class prostitutes and cocaine habit, we’re going to spend it on vegetables and getting the toilet fixed”, to which the only sensible reply is, “Oh and where are you getting all this money from? The magic money tree?”

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/pub ... 27591.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:10 pm

PorFavor wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Does anyone here have any news on how ephemerid got on yesterday, please? I gathered that she intended posting a report-back on another site (although it may be too soon,yet). I hope it went ok for her.
Hi PF

Apparently a bit unclear and inconclusive - she posted something yesterday on the other site (1st page if I remember) if you want to pop across to read it

Thanks - but you'll have to tell me where to go. So to speak.

sent you a pm

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:11 pm

Mr Steel from this week:

If you were cynical, you might wonder if our attitude towards Saudi Arabia was influenced in any way by the $4.2bn of arms sales since 2015, which defence secretary Michael Fallon says he wants to increase.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/sau ... 39871.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:12 pm

BAE Systems has managed to sell 72 Typhoons to Saudi Arabia in a deal known as “the peace project”, which is a quaint title because nothing says peace like a Typhoon fighter jet, capable of firing 1,700 rounds a minute, with a unique operating system that allows several targets to be attacked at once. I expect Tibetan Monks give them to each other on their birthdays.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:15 pm

Donaeld The Unready‏ @donaeldunready 11h11 hours ago
More
Can't even complement Frankish Queen on how totally hot she looks without loser Serfflakes saying I'm creepy! IT'S CALLED DIPLOMACY, LOSERS.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:17 pm

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The best thing about voting remain is getting to shout TOLD YOU SO all the time for the next 100 years

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:23 pm

I do try to take on other views, but it hasn't yet altered my own, simplistic though it may be. If an MP (from whatever party) represents a ward that voted Remain, is taking the party line (Brexit) democratic? Or is it simply that our current system does not and logically cannot work?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:26 pm

@tinyclanger2

Oh. It's you.

(Good to see you back. Hope whatever it was went well.)

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:30 pm

The point about campaigning being that you work to change the status quo (and public perceptions/reinforcement of it)

The study found that people are more concerned with managing demand for public services than restricting freedom of movement, particularly those who voted Leave.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 40331.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:32 pm

it is and it we had no complaints.
which is, in itself, a great leap.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 8:42 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:I do try to take on other views, but it hasn't yet altered my own, simplistic though it may be. If an MP (from whatever party) represents a ward that voted Remain, is taking the party line (Brexit) democratic? Or is it simply that our current system does not and logically cannot work?

if that is your view then around 60% of all MPs should be campaigning to Leave

Post by **refitman** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 9:01 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well, I certainly agree that Watson isn't great (and voted for Creasy, in case anyone has forgotten)

Poor old Stella. Must be miserable being her. She should quit and do something else as she's going nowhere fast.

Yeah, she did really badly after the Queen's speech?!

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:03 pm

It was a question

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:05 pm

moreover there were clues to this in both the phraseology and punctuation

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:06 pm

And anyway, 80+% of them are working to leave, without even bothering with the campaigning bit

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:08 pm

To clarify: my view remains that Brexit will ruin the country.
My question was about our political system as it relates to representation (specifically around Leave and Remain in this instance). The question still stands.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:09 pm

No. My view is that Brexit has already ruined it.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:10 pm

I would also add that there is a difference between not listening and genuinely not understanding despite best efforts. And asking the same question again in an attempt to do so.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 14 Jul, 2017 10:47 pm

I really don't understand what you are saying to be honest....you pose, what seems to me to be a rhetorical question, that actually leads to an answer that goes against what you want.

If an MP goes against the wishes of his or her constituents so flagrantly as you suggest, and they feel so strongly about it then they will be voted out

We know that democracy in the UK is flawed - it has been for a while now but nothing has changed there.

The Brexit vote was not a sensible response to the frustration people are feeling but, stupid as it may seem to you, there was a vote on it

When it comes to some of these discussions I think some of the pro-Remainers make the same mistake as those at the other side and think the voters feels as strongly about is as they do and make all decisions looking through this prism

I think the message from the last election suggests that this may not be so much the case as you would like

I don't think there is any electoral or political mileage in a trenchant and loud pro-Remain campaign - in fact it may have the effect of hardening people's positions

Brexit may well fail under the weight of its own contradictions and I would see the role of Labour and others to make that case at the right time

As to the EU itself - the Single Market is not a left-wing construct - it was Thatcher's dream, as was expansion to the East - and it has not always brought positive things to bear

It is though, as Corbyn has come to realise, important to have a strong access to it as it is the way to protect the economy and jobs as we have evolved into being dependent on it. Immigration that allows companies to suppress wages or the transfer of money for 'tax efficiency' allowing states to compete in that ..see Ireland...is not left-wing
either

The EU has many benefits that I appreciate and see as more left wing (eg human and workers rights, cross-border cooperation etc)