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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:33 am 
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Morning.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -104183285


A moment that changed me: signing up for a half marathon
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Managed an attempt to combat a this is "Toryism" view (which particularly irked)


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:00 am 
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Happy birthday to AAW.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 7:45 am 
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The police will prioritise those they need to,bloody ridiculous.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 7:49 am 
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There is probably a word to describe the bin obsessed.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 7:53 am 
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Though attracted by the idea of a talking bin "fuck off,use your own";"I stink I haven't been washed for months ""wrong bin/contamination"I share if the need arises,it is friendly,unless roused.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 8:12 am 
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Good morfternoon.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 8:32 am 
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https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... emony.html


Medicine and the microfoundations hegemony in macroeconomics

Wren-Lewis


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:01 am 
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Sorry if this has already been done, but I found it quite interesting. There's obviously and sadly quite a lot of antisemitism around, but it's far from being a Labour problem!

http://evolvepolitics.com/new-caa-repor ... ur-voters/


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:03 am 
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http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_599ed ... c140a3/amp

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'
"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."


Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?

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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:12 am 
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Jonathan Portes is accusing Nick Timothy of (euphemistically) rewriting history. Or lying, if you're uncharitable.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/901161879623667712


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:15 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_599ed507e4b0821444c140a3/amp

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'
"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."


Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?

I suppose it all depends whether the Tories can actually hold together. They have made it particularly difficult for themselves by promoting a hard Brexit and then having no capacity to deliver it.

As it becomes apparent that we can't really leave the EU and still be a viable nation, the right wing press will surely turn on May and Davis. At that point, other Tory factions or the DUP may decide their future is better served by bringing down the Government. Cameron's coalition survived because it suited all Tories and Libs to keep it going.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:19 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_599ed507e4b0821444c140a3/amp

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'
"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."


Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?


I'm not sure the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is worth much.

Is it politically tenable to lose an old fashioned confidence vote where a majority of one is enough? That would surely be hard to carry on as if nothing had happened. I thought at first that Corbyn should have told May to sort her own mess out and refused a general election, but I now think that wouldn't have washed.

The DUP are getting their money in the first two years. They could be loose cannons.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:35 am 
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Morning/afternoon

I think Corbyn wants an early election (how things change from just 6 months ago) and will keep promoting that whenever he can

The current Government is weak....and it will only get weaker as the shambles they are presiding over gets worse

It is also pertinent that they lost seats - it does make them more vulnerable as they are not in total control

As to the anti-semitism poll, I find all these things difficult to take too seriously. There are too many confounding factors and some of the questions may not elicit racist answers, rather political ones

I still don't believe Labour has an 'anti-semitic problem' as the press tries to portray - and also sadly some MPs for their own ends - rather they have a problem with people taking their dislike of the state of Israel and its leadership too far and then over-stepping the mark. These people need to calm down and read a bit of history so they can understand where the line is

The Israeli Government though is very good at shutting down debate on some of the frankly vile policies of the Netanyahu Government and discussion of the actions of previous ones as well


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:36 am 
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I think losing an old-fashioned no confidence vote in the style of 1979 would have to mean an immediate GE, as then.

If the government tried to wriggle out of that somehow, things could get ugly pretty quick.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 11:40 am 
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oh and just to add for the avoidance of doubt - there is anti-semitism around as well as anti-muslim, anti-roma, anti-black, anti-Irish and not a bit of anti-European

All of them are vile and should be stamped out and all should be treated equally

The 'Labour are anti-semites' is a political message and one that is being propagated in the media - does anyone honestly think Labour has a worse record on racism than the Tories?


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 12:03 pm 
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Morning all. Update on 'er indoors - was kept in after the...oscopy whatever it's called...and will be in now until surgery on Tuesday. She wasn't being let home because she wasn't eating well and her oxygen level in her blood weren't high enough but then it got to the point where it became a bit pointless sending her home. So...daily travelling back and forth from now on. Kids have been home too so we all went up last night.

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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 12:04 pm 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Morning all. Update on 'er indoors - was kept in after the...oscopy whatever it's called...and will be in now until surgery on Tuesday. She wasn't being let home because she wasn't eating well and her oxygen level in her blood weren't high enough but then it got to the point where it became a bit pointless sending her home. So...daily travelling back and forth from now on. Kids have been home too so we all went up last night.


All good wishes.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 12:19 pm 
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I see the Telegraph is getting some deserved stick for this.

Quote:
The Telegraph‏Verified account
@Telegraph
Follow
More
Andrew Neil steps down from Sunday Politics as female presenter takes the helm


and

Quote:
Graham Hartland ن‏ @ramtopsgrum 8m8 minutes ago
More
Graham Hartland ن Retweeted The Telegraph
female presenter = 16 characters. Sarah Smith = 11 characters. Takes less effort to write her actual name, folks.


Well quite.

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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 1:25 pm 
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HindleA wrote:
Happy birthday to AAW.

Happy Birthday, AngryAsWell!
:rock: :heart:

I was rifling through my calendars from years past trying to find Happy Birthday confirmation
There's good memoir material worth reading if HindleA writes it, I've no confidence in any other


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 1:26 pm 
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Good-afternoon, everyone


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 1:28 pm 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Morning all. Update on 'er indoors - was kept in after the...oscopy whatever it's called...and will be in now until surgery on Tuesday. She wasn't being let home because she wasn't eating well and her oxygen level in her blood weren't high enough but then it got to the point where it became a bit pointless sending her home. So...daily travelling back and forth from now on. Kids have been home too so we all went up last night.

Give my love to your family
Good health restored and long, healthy futures for you all


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 1:32 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Sorry if this has already been done, but I found it quite interesting. There's obviously and sadly quite a lot of antisemitism around, but it's far from being a Labour problem!

http://evolvepolitics.com/new-caa-repor ... ur-voters/


So, you are most likely to be anti-semitic if you are an older right wing male voter who supported Brexit.

Would anybody guess that from virtually all the mainstream media coverage??


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 1:34 pm 
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(We were "moving" rememberance)


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 1:39 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_599ed507e4b0821444c140a3/amp

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn Predicts A General Election 'In The Near Future'
"They lost seats. I don't think they can last."

Can't really get my head around his thinking here. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Tories have bought themselves an extra 2 years after Brexit and I don't see them giving that up when there is such a strong chance they could lose. I said before the election that it didn't matter by how much May won, she'd still get the extra time regardless. The hung Parliament did throw a major spanner in the works, but she managed to cling on so why would the Tories opt for an election now? The whole point of the five year parliaments was to make Coalition government more stable and that applies now with the DUP as much as with the Libdems. Does anyone here really believe there's going to be another early election if Labour look anything like being able to win?
I understand you but I think Tory government are in real trouble
Emotional, psychological and professional incapacity, increasing inability salvaging rudimentary composure, breakdown and collapse in Tory leadership. I don't think they're sustainable.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 2:05 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
I think losing an old-fashioned no confidence vote in the style of 1979 would have to mean an immediate GE, as then.

If the government tried to wriggle out of that somehow, things could get ugly pretty quick.


But given losing a no confidence vote would mean an election, what's the likelihood of them losing one? While so many Tories are vulnerable? And a no confidence vote would make them even less electable? If Labour were pushing for a soft Brexit, it's conceivable Tory Europhiles might chance a term out of office to see us stay in the single market, but if swapping May for Corbyn leaves them potentiality in the same position of leaving the single market it seems to me they are going to stick.

Given how much time has already been wasted since article 50 was triggered, I actually think trying for yet another election could seriously jeopardise the interests of the UK as a whole. That the opposition would wish to have a chance of being in power would be understood, but Tories voting against their own government at such a crucial time less so and I wonder if such concerns aren't more than likely going to stay the rebels' hands a tad.

May will surely be challenged once the article 50 negotiations are concluded, but before then? Corbyn might as well go around saying the government can't last during the summer break, as much as anything else, I'm not knocking that. The article simply prompted me to question the actual likelihood. Having managed to get the Queen's speech through, and no reason to expect difficulties getting a budget through, where is the trigger for a vote of no confidence even going to come from?

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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 2:21 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Sorry if this has already been done, but I found it quite interesting. There's obviously and sadly quite a lot of antisemitism around, but it's far from being a Labour problem!

http://evolvepolitics.com/new-caa-repor ... ur-voters/


So, you are most likely to be anti-semitic if you are an older right wing male voter who supported Brexit.

Would anybody guess that from virtually all the mainstream media coverage??


Yeah, older and rightwing people are more racist.

I think Labour's figure is surprisingly high, given that it's younger and typically less racist than the Tories. I think this is part of what drove the sense of an "anti-Semitism crisis"- the idea that Jews were being treated differently by an otherwise strongly anti-racist left.

But part of the crisis too was media frenzy and political shitstirring.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 2:34 pm 
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You won't believe how bad Joe Arpaio actually is. From the local rag-

https://twitter.com/phoenixnewtimes/sta ... 4087334914


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Tubby Isaacs wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Sorry if this has already been done, but I found it quite interesting. There's obviously and sadly quite a lot of antisemitism around, but it's far from being a Labour problem!

http://evolvepolitics.com/new-caa-repor ... ur-voters/


So, you are most likely to be anti-semitic if you are an older right wing male voter who supported Brexit.

Would anybody guess that from virtually all the mainstream media coverage??


Yeah, older and rightwing people are more racist.


Yes, but this is specifically about AS rather than "racism" more generally.

We have been assured by many, especially since Corbyn became Labour leader, that AS is somehow "different" from other forms of racism.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 3:30 pm 
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Every type of racism has its particular tropes and stereotypes, so they are different in that way.

I usually think of racism as unashamedly kicking "down"- dumb Irish, lazy blacks etc. The difference in Anti-Semitism is that it purports to be kicking "up" at Jews who "control the media" etc. So I think there can be an attraction in it for some people who are otherwise left wing because it is attacking "power". (Obviously, more common or garden racists will also go there with Jews too, and almost certainly will express it much more violently).

I wouldn't put it any stronger than that. And I don't know the question to which an anti-Semitic response was given in this survey, or even whether I'd agree it was anti-Semitic.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 3:40 pm 
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Google familiar AS memes (eg about "Jewish world rule") and most hits are on far/alt-right sites. Muslims don't feature that much even, never mind common or garden lefties.

People who insist AS is somehow mainly a left-wing problem now have also somehow managed to forget the deeply dubious treatment Ed Miliband all too often received.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:01 pm 
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Yeah, obviously, the far right are much, much worse.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:05 pm 
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Quote:
1 GBP = 1.08029 EUR
British Pound 1 GBP = 1.08029 EUR ↔ Euro 1 EUR = 0.925675 GBP

2017-08-26 16:02 UTC

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/con ... EUR&To=GBP


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:13 pm 
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citizenJA wrote:
Quote:
1 GBP = 1.08029 EUR
British Pound 1 GBP = 1.08029 EUR ↔ Euro 1 EUR = 0.925675 GBP

2017-08-26 16:02 UTC

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/con ... EUR&To=GBP


I can't think of it that way round!

1 pounds is 1.0803 Euros.

This is towards the lower end of the range that the Telegraph threatened us with if Corbyn won.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:26 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Google familiar AS memes (eg about "Jewish world rule") and most hits are on far/alt-right sites. Muslims don't feature that much even, never mind common or garden lefties.

People who insist AS is somehow mainly a left-wing problem now have also somehow managed to forget the deeply dubious treatment Ed Miliband all too often received.


Jews themselves are the best judge of this.

There is a reason Labour's vote amongst Jews has collapsed.

They aren't a large constituency, and so for those for whom the game is all that won't matter.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:36 pm 
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Unfortunately, many British Jews are now hardline Likudists and claim that any substantive criticism of Israel - let alone sympathy for Palestinians - is "anti-semitic".

And the big collapse in Labour support amongst Jews happened *before* Corbyn took over - indeed much of it was with a leader who was an ethnic albeit not practising Jew.

There may even have been a slight rebound for Labour amongst Jews a few months ago (depending on what polling evidence you believe)


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:50 pm 
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Some great debate on here today :-)

I decided to thank all posts. It takes quite a while doesn't it?

A quick back of the envelope suggests that CitizenJA has spent around two whole days of her life thanking the rest of us :-o

Thank you JA!


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:50 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Unfortunately, many British Jews are now hardline Likudists and claim that any substantive criticism of Israel - let alone sympathy for Palestinians - is "anti-semitic".

And the big collapse in Labour support amongst Jews happened *before* Corbyn took over - indeed much of it was with a leader who was an ethnic albeit not practising Jew.

There may even have been a slight rebound for Labour amongst Jews a few months ago (depending on what polling evidence you believe)


I don't agree, and I don't think the evidence in Londin and Manchester supports your statements about when the collapse in support happened.

I think that is the politest I can be.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:51 pm 
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/p ... y-11052322

police-announce-significant-investigation-tory

Quote:
Police announce 'significant' investigation into Tory election call centre
The Tories and South Wales based Blue telecoms have denied breaking electoral law during the campaign


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:54 pm 
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The nub of the police investigation seems to be whether the call centre was canvassing (not allowed because they were paid to do it) or doing market research (which would be OK of course).


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:59 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Unfortunately, many British Jews are now hardline Likudists and claim that any substantive criticism of Israel - let alone sympathy for Palestinians - is "anti-semitic".

And the big collapse in Labour support amongst Jews happened *before* Corbyn took over - indeed much of it was with a leader who was an ethnic albeit not practising Jew.

There may even have been a slight rebound for Labour amongst Jews a few months ago (depending on what polling evidence you believe)


It does predate Corbyn, indeed.

I'm not sure what sort of level Likudism runs among British Jews, but it's certainly relevant.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 5:59 pm 
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SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Unfortunately, many British Jews are now hardline Likudists and claim that any substantive criticism of Israel - let alone sympathy for Palestinians - is "anti-semitic".

And the big collapse in Labour support amongst Jews happened *before* Corbyn took over - indeed much of it was with a leader who was an ethnic albeit not practising Jew.

There may even have been a slight rebound for Labour amongst Jews a few months ago (depending on what polling evidence you believe)


I don't agree, and I don't think the evidence in Londin and Manchester supports your statements about when the collapse in support happened.

I think that is the politest I can be.


Um, what? Seats with significant Jewish populations showed Labour doing no worse overall this year than in 2015. That is observable fact.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:03 pm 
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Labour underperformed in Hendon, Finchley and Golders Green and Harrow East, didn't they?

They performed well in Chipping Barnet though.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:06 pm 
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Yes, but generally no worse than in 2015 (pre-Corbyn)

The main fresh loss of Jewish support may have been in Bury South, following bad local election results there in certain wards last year.


Last edited by AnatolyKasparov on Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:07 pm 
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Hendon 2.7% swing to Labour.
Harrow East 3.1% swing to Labour.
Finchley and Golders Green 4% swing to Labour.

All down the lower end of London swings.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:08 pm 
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That's all relatively worse than 2015, for North London, isn't it?


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:16 pm 
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Yes but not *absolutely" worse, that's my point!

Its not impossible that Jewish disquiet at Brexit and Tory "culture war" tactics to some degree cancelled out distaste for Labour/Corbyn.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:17 pm 
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In case HindleA is looking in, looking promising at half time ;-)


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:22 pm 
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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolic ... n-society/

the-scrounger-myth-is-causing-real-suffering-to-many-in-society

Worth book marking perhaps. Solid evidence that the scrounger myth is just that.


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:26 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Yes but not *absolutely" worse, that's my point!

Its not impossible that Jewish disquiet at Brexit and Tory "culture war" tactics to some degree cancelled out distaste for Labour/Corbyn.


Probably we're at cross purposes here. I'm talking about relatively worse than 2015 for London. Isn't that where we should be looking for something consistent with a negative "Corbyn effect"? Or, if you prefer, the absence of a positive "Corbyn effect" which was felt in the rest of London?


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PostPosted: Sat 26 Aug, 2017 6:28 pm 
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Corbyn may well have been a drag on Labour support amongst Jews, but there's little evidence he cost them significantly *more* with that group.

Contrary to what some have claimed :)


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