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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 9:48 am 
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Morning.

I was pretty pleased to read Starmer's article on a clearer Brexit position. We need realism in this debate. Even those who support a hard Brexit need to accept the Tory approach is not feasible. We have barely over a year to establish what happens in March 2019. The Tories simply can't achieve what they are saying.

Adam above does touch on something that has been bothering me though. Corbyn has been openly positioning as wishing to bring down the government throughout the summer. This is going to make it far more difficult to work with Tory Europhile rebels when trying to amend the Repeal Bill.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 10:06 am 
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There are no Tory Europhile rebels, apart from perhaps Clarke and one or two others, and there are enough Labour Brexiteers to outnumber them in all likelihood

Don't depend on these mythical beasts

...and anyway Brexit is not the only shambles they are presiding over

Get rid of this bunch one incompetents as soon as possible and Labour should be fighting for this every day


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 10:22 am 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
There are no Tory Europhile rebels, apart from perhaps Clarke and one or two others, and there are enough Labour Brexiteers to outnumber them in all likelihood

Don't depend on these mythical beasts

...and anyway Brexit is not the only shambles they are presiding over

Get rid of this bunch one incompetents as soon as possible and Labour should be fighting for this every day


How, though? If there are no rebels, as you say, there is no way to win a vote of no confidence. Winning an amendment or, much more likely, putting May in a position where she has to take soft Brexit views into account to avoid the opposition winning on an amendment, seems more possible to me. But it does involve working with cross party aligned interests, admittedly not attractive. But even if it were possible to force another election, Brexit isn't going to magically disappear, it's going to carry on happening, with no one at the helm, again not very attractive.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 10:40 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
There are no Tory Europhile rebels, apart from perhaps Clarke and one or two others, and there are enough Labour Brexiteers to outnumber them in all likelihood

Don't depend on these mythical beasts

...and anyway Brexit is not the only shambles they are presiding over

Get rid of this bunch one incompetents as soon as possible and Labour should be fighting for this every day


How, though? If there are no rebels, as you say, there is no way to win a vote of no confidence. Winning an amendment or, much more likely, putting May in a position where she has to take soft Brexit views into account to avoid the opposition winning on an amendment, seems more possible to me. But it does involve working with cross party aligned interests, admittedly not attractive. But even if it were possible to force another election, Brexit isn't going to magically disappear, it's going to carry on happening, with no one at the helm, again not very attractive.



That is a question for the Tory rebels rather than Labour....how much will they put country over party if they feel that strongly?

The European votes are not confidence votes so they should vote on conscience - I bet you Hoey will vote against the whip on Europe if it is pro-EU

Before June Corbyn was rubbish because he didn't put any pressure on the Tories because he was unelectable and not he is rubbish because he is putting pressure on the Tories because he is electable

The EU votes are separate from bringing down the Tory Government - the former will allow us to work with the Tories, the latter is something any self-respecting labour MP should be fighting for everyday


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 11:01 am 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
There are no Tory Europhile rebels, apart from perhaps Clarke and one or two others, and there are enough Labour Brexiteers to outnumber them in all likelihood

Don't depend on these mythical beasts

...and anyway Brexit is not the only shambles they are presiding over

Get rid of this bunch one incompetents as soon as possible and Labour should be fighting for this every day


How, though? If there are no rebels, as you say, there is no way to win a vote of no confidence. Winning an amendment or, much more likely, putting May in a position where she has to take soft Brexit views into account to avoid the opposition winning on an amendment, seems more possible to me. But it does involve working with cross party aligned interests, admittedly not attractive. But even if it were possible to force another election, Brexit isn't going to magically disappear, it's going to carry on happening, with no one at the helm, again not very attractive.



That is a question for the Tory rebels rather than Labour....how much will they put country over party if they feel that strongly?

The European votes are not confidence votes so they should vote on conscience - I bet you Hoey will vote against the whip on Europe if it is pro-EU

Before June Corbyn was rubbish because he didn't put any pressure on the Tories because he was unelectable and not he is rubbish because he is putting pressure on the Tories because he is electable

The EU votes are separate from bringing down the Tory Government - the former will allow us to work with the Tories, the latter is something any self-respecting labour MP should be fighting for everyday


The clock is ticking on Brexit, and Starmer's article today is a welcome response to that and a clear sign that Labour are moving on from the electorally friendly fudge of sitting on the fence on Brexit, to moving to a clear position from which to attack the Tories' unfeasible one, so I'm pretty happy. Just think talk of 'bringing the government down' may drum up false hope (unless someone can see a likely way that could happen that I'm not seeing) which sits uncomfortably with working alongside Tories to try to amend the repeal bill. It's only a minor worry, though, an aside if you like. I'm not saying Corbyn is rubbish because he is putting electoral pressure on the Tories, just wondering how great that pressure currently is. I.e. how likely is another election before March 2019? That's the discussion I have been trying to have, as in order to respond positively to the message Corbyn is sending on 'bringing the government down' I need to understand how that might happen.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 11:05 am 
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There have been claims that the likes of Soubry and Allen haven't actually rebelled on Brexit "because Corbyn agrees with May on hard Brexit so there isn't any point".

Well, their bluff has rather been called now hasn't it?


Last edited by AnatolyKasparov on Sun 27 Aug, 2017 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 11:12 am 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
There have been claims that the likes of Soubry and Allen haven't actually rebelled on Brexit "because Corbyn agrees with May on hard Brexit so there isn't any point".

Well, their bluff has rather been called now isn't it?


Yes. I think the clarification from Starmer was a vital move if there is any hope of forcing May into a softer Brexit. Whether there is any hope is unknowable, only the potential rebels know that. I also expect the pressure to be applied before any votes, so we may not see any government defeats, as such, but I'm hopeful the Europhile's hand has been strengthened by this. It's what I've wanted to see from Labour, so as I said above, I very much welcome this development.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 11:35 am 
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http://deadstate.org/guy-who-says-god-s ... -disaster/


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:14 pm 
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Good-afternoon, everyone


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:16 pm 
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I like Labour unity, good work


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:17 pm 
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Labour’s soft Brexit ‘solution’ would make reality of the Brexiters’ lies

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While we currently have the opportunity to veto many EU-wide decisions – a disproportionate power that we have wielded gleefully, much to the chagrin of our European partners – as a member of the EEA, like Norway, we would be beholden to the EU’s policymakers in much the way Nigel Farage always told us we were.


The article is a very good take on a lot of my concerns.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:28 pm 
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'I don't recognise my country anymore': British citizens leaving UK because of Brexit amid exodus of Europeans
More than 100,000 Brits have already emigrated for a variety of reasons since the EU referendum
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 14606.html

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:29 pm 
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Quote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 15081.html
Lifelong Tory Matthew Parris says he would consider voting Labour following 'dramatic' Brexit shift
The commentator called Labour's decision to back the single market and customs union 'brave'

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:40 pm 
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tinyclanger2 wrote:
Quote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 15081.html
Lifelong Tory Matthew Parris says he would consider voting Labour following 'dramatic' Brexit shift
The commentator called Labour's decision to back the single market and customs union 'brave'



Brave brave? Or Sir Humphrey brave?


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:53 pm 
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adam wrote:
Labour’s soft Brexit ‘solution’ would make reality of the Brexiters’ lies
Quote:
While we currently have the opportunity to veto many EU-wide decisions – a disproportionate power that we have wielded gleefully, much to the chagrin of our European partners – as a member of the EEA, like Norway, we would be beholden to the EU’s policymakers in much the way Nigel Farage always told us we were.

The article is a very good take on a lot of my concerns.
From the article
Quote:
Crashing out at least offers the distant prospect, even after a period of pain and adjustment, of a better, future.
Quote:
Preserving our fragile economy is of course important, but if we just maintain the status quo while also turning the EU into an actual – rather than an imagined – bogeyman, we’re storing up big problems for the decades to come. In short: there’s nothing soft about this soft Brexit.
How won't these 'bogeyman' realities happen with the UK crashing out of the EU?


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 12:58 pm 
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citizenJA wrote:
From the article
Quote:
Crashing out at least offers the distant prospect, even after a period of pain and adjustment, of a better, future.


I don't agree with that bit :) It's not utterly impossible but it's very difficult to see.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Just to remind everybody again, just in case ( :) ) Labour are not in power.

If this is really about pushing *the Tories* into a "soft Brexit" position, that is smart politics in several respects.


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 1:05 pm 
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adam wrote:
Labour’s soft Brexit ‘solution’ would make reality of the Brexiters’ lies

Quote:
While we currently have the opportunity to veto many EU-wide decisions – a disproportionate power that we have wielded gleefully, much to the chagrin of our European partners – as a member of the EEA, like Norway, we would be beholden to the EU’s policymakers in much the way Nigel Farage always told us we were.


The article is a very good take on a lot of my concerns.


Of course a Norway type option is inferior to being in the EU, but we've given notification of our intention to leave so it's very hard to see how remaining in the EU is an option now. The article acknowledges that remaining in the single market is better than leaving it and as such I'm therefore glad to see Labour moving from supporting the latter (as clearly stated by Corbyn a fees weeks ago) to a position that may eventually lead to supporting the former. Preferring a soft Brexit to a hard Brexit if and when we leave, doesn't preclude supporting staying in the EU if that ever becomes an option, as far as I can see. And while some seem to believe insisting it has to be a hard Brexit will somehow make people think twice and not want to leave at all, this seems a dangerous strategy to me, which will undermine attempts to build consensus for soft Brexit with no guarantee of a way being found to stop Brexit, even if it becomes apparent that's what people want.

So I'm happy with Labour's new position. I think it more feasible than the Tory position and in the best interests of the country even if it doesn't tick the boxes of leave voters, because the best interests of the country and populist sentiment don't always align. Norway have lived with this compromise for many years because populist sentiment stops their politicians from doing what they know makes more sense, which is join the EU proper. Yet they make the best of it and we can too. We have to, because we've triggered article 50 and are on our way out, with no time to do anything better. The only real problem with Labour's position is they aren't in a position to implement it.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 1:11 pm 
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@Willow904
Your thoughts above echo my own


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 1:31 pm 
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Norway is not a model that will work for us. It will have to be a bespoke one

Norway are not in CU and are in Schengen


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 1:53 pm 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
Norway is not a model that will work for us. It will have to be a bespoke one

Norway are not in CU and are in Schengen


A Norway type option. As in abiding by the rules but no say in them. The discussion was prompted by Starmer's article, where he talks about negotiating a transition period with the UK retaining similar relationships as now, so retaining CU but no Schengen. Which to me is a Norway "type" option rather than the hard Brexit option being championed by May. If I meant the exact Norway arrangement, I wouldn't have said Norway type. I'm careful with my choice of words in order to try to avoid these misunderstandings, to no avail, it seems.

As an aside, you offer no reasons as to why Norway's precise relationship "wouldn't work for us"? Economically I feel it would work well enough, so I assume you are meaning it wouldn't be popular? If you look at my comment above, you will see that I acknowledge that there is a gap between what might be in a nation's best interests and popular sentiment and that there needs to be compromise between the two.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 2:31 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... hours-hmrc

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Tens of thousands of parents are still waiting to find out if they can take up a government offer of 30 hours’ free childcare days before the scheme is due to be launched.

According to the latest figures, revealed in a letter sent by the Department for Education to local authorities and seen by the Observer, 82,000 parents entitled to the extra childcare have not yet secured a place for their three and four-year-olds


That seems like a pretty big shortfall to me. Theresa May doing her best to make David Cameron look halfway competent.
The worst thing about this is a lot of smaller private nurseries may just quit the sector leaving even those people willing and able to pay without any nursery places to choose from and local council nurseries thus under even more pressure and possibly having to turn a lot of children away.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 2:58 pm 
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I have no problem with the Norway approach....but would Schengen be acceptable to the electorate and is the CU important as most pro EU supporters talk of that in the same breathe as the SM)

Personally I think Norway-type agreement means absolutely nothing because of the above - the only part we would want is a similar participation with the SM (and Norway doesnt cover agriculture or fisheries either)

The reality is our agreement will be a bespoke UK agreement and I find the continual referral to Norway (and Switzerland) unhelpful


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 3:45 pm 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
I have no problem with the Norway approach....but would Schengen be acceptable to the electorate and is the CU important as most pro EU supporters talk of that in the same breathe as the SM)

Personally I think Norway-type agreement means absolutely nothing because of the above - the only part we would want is a similar participation with the SM (and Norway doesnt cover agriculture or fisheries either)

The reality is our agreement will be a bespoke UK agreement and I find the continual referral to Norway (and Switzerland) unhelpful


I'm not aware the EU have indicated Schengen is non-negotiable in the way they have indicated the four freedoms are non-negotiable so I'm not sure why you feel this would have to be accepted as part of a "soft Brexit" deal. We aren't in Schengen currently, so why would we want/have to join?

The reason the CU is important is because of the Irish border situation. Leaving the CU makes solving the Irish border problem in a way that is satisfactory to all parties far more difficult.

As for my use of "Norway type option" as shorthand for abiding by the rules of the club/clubs without having a say in them, I'm sorry it's irksome to you, but the shorthand of "bespoke deal" is irksome to me because of it's similarity to the kind of unrealistic "have your cake and eat it" language being batted around by hard Brexiters seeking to suggest we can enjoy all the benefits of single market membership without any of the drawbacks.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 4:06 pm 
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I think from now on I'll just refer to the "Starmer option". If we have to leave the EU (and as things stand currently, I think we do) I would prefer the Starmer option, not just transitionally, but permanently. I can't really be any clearer than that ;)

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:09 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ocally-yes

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Should the rich be taxed more? A new paper shows unequivocally yes
Larry Elliott

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:10 pm 
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Using a statistical model we can examine the relationship between the perceived likelihood of Labour winning a majority and support for the Labour party over the campaign, controlling for other factors that might predict Labour support.

So does our analysis support the argument that people voted for Labour because they thought Labour would win? In fact, it suggests the opposite. As the graph below shows, the more likely someone thought Labour was to win a majority, the more likely they were to vote Labour.

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes ... aL72dSQxQI
Can someone read this carefully and explain what it means to me, please? I don't think it makes sense but my eyes and thinking might be tired this afternoon.


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:13 pm 
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Quote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/kei ... 15626.html
He has adroitly repositioned Labour to stifle a Lib Dem resurgence, saddle May with the sole custody of the hard Brexit problem child she’d rather share, and prepare Labour for the day it follows its head and its heart by fighting to remain.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:18 pm 
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Quote:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news
Labour's Jess Phillips received '600 rape and death threats in a single day'
There was nothing in common with those threatening her online other than them being men, said the MP for Birmingham Yardley

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:27 pm 
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@cja They've missed a "not" out in the first sentence,in your last paragraph.Further on




"Although undoubtedly there were some people who voted Labour because they thought they could not win the election, the evidence is very clear that this was not true in general. Indeed the opposite is the case – the more likely people thought Labour’s chances of winning the election were, the more likely they were to vote for them"


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:45 pm 
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HindleA wrote:
@cja They've missed a "not" out in the first sentence,in your last paragraph.Further on

"Although undoubtedly there were some people who voted Labour because they thought they could not win the election, the evidence is very clear that this was not true in general. Indeed the opposite is the case – the more likely people thought Labour’s chances of winning the election were, the more likely they were to vote for them"

Thank you
For some reason it bothers the hell out of me
Probably because I think the hypothesis obnoxious bull****
'people voted Labour because they thought Labour wouldn't win'
break logic much
what's the stupid mistake still doing in there


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 5:54 pm 
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You can analyse these things to death.I don't like/trust people with ginger hair was not an uncommon reason in '92 for not voting Labour.


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 6:10 pm 
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citizenJA wrote:
HindleA wrote:
@cja They've missed a "not" out in the first sentence,in your last paragraph.Further on

"Although undoubtedly there were some people who voted Labour because they thought they could not win the election, the evidence is very clear that this was not true in general. Indeed the opposite is the case – the more likely people thought Labour’s chances of winning the election were, the more likely they were to vote for them"

Thank you
For some reason it bothers the hell out of me
Probably because I think the hypothesis obnoxious bull****
'people voted Labour because they thought Labour wouldn't win'
break logic much
what's the stupid mistake still doing in there


It's always more likely the other way round, isn't it? If people think Labour can't win, why not vote Green or Plaid or whatever you feel more aligned to, as it doesn't make a difference. Labour looking like they were closing the gap surely attracted some tactical anti-Tory votes precisely because they looked like they could do it (and be a genuine alternative). One area where the spin about Jeremy Corbyn being unelectable might have had an impact could have been on Tories who thought the election was in the bag so didn't bother turning out, but I'm not aware of that being reported as much of a factor.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 6:37 pm 
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I'm sorry for my caustic reply
Inclement weather traditionally? generally? meant a better election result for Tories
If convinced the party favoured will win, less likelihood of putting shoes back on and going out to vote


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 6:39 pm 
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Quote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 15541.html
A million skilled workers plan to leave the UK after Brexit
A staggering 55 per cent of those with PhDs and 49 per cent of those with postgraduate degrees have either decided to leave or are considering it


Experts. Who needs 'em.
Brits. Taking back control.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 6:43 pm 
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“Against this backdrop we expect to see increased competition for talent between employers over the coming years, and numerous firms seeking to supplement their workforce with AI, robotics and automation.”


Another disaster on our collective horizon.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 7:11 pm 
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Just read some comments on a Guardian article - something (post FTN) I hardly ever do.
Won't be doing it again.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 7:34 pm 
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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 7:42 pm 
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tinyclanger2 wrote:
Just read some comments on a Guardian article - something (post FTN) I hardly ever do.
Won't be doing it again.

some threads are worse than others


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 7:43 pm 
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I think some posts are written by angry young teens, children


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 7:50 pm 
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The fact of the matter is that this government is so unstable that anything could happen in the next two months.
- William Keegan

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ain-brexit


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 7:53 pm 
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Someone going by the name of JHunt has even got their own article.


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 8:04 pm 
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In the patronising bollox Mark 3 section.


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 8:05 pm 
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https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ir-starmer

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Parliamentary politics, such as it has been since the general election, has been like fighting over the steering wheel when you’re already in the middle of a game of chicken. Do you really want to be in charge when the British and EU cars collide?

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 8:19 pm 
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https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... icy-change
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Labour MPs warn of backlash if Jeremy Corbyn shifts Brexit stance
Plans to position Labour as the party of ‘soft Brexit’ lead to concerns among MPs about alienating Brexit voters


The passage of the repeal bill and the Labour party conference are going to be lively, it seems.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 8:44 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... icy-change
Another [Labour MP] said: “This is a disaster in northern towns where we got Ukip’s vote by backing Brexit and immigration controls as soon as possible, not by hoping they might come through in the future.”


Not much point in having the UKIP vote if they just adopt UKIP's policies.

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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 9:04 pm 
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Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 9:27 pm 
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'The president speaks for himself': Rex Tillerson distances himself from Trump

Asked if Charlottesville remarks made it harder to represent the US, secretary of state appears to suggest president does not represent American values (Guardian)


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/27/rex-tillerson-donald-trump-charlottesville


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 9:31 pm 
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http://jackofkent.com/brexit-negotiatio ... urce-page/


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PostPosted: Sun 27 Aug, 2017 9:40 pm 
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tinyclanger2 wrote:
Quote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... icy-change
Another [Labour MP] said: “This is a disaster in northern towns where we got Ukip’s vote by backing Brexit and immigration controls as soon as possible, not by hoping they might come through in the future.”


Not much point in having the UKIP vote if they just adopt UKIP's policies.


John "The Mouth" Mann, and others who wish to remain nameless.


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