FlyTheNest

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 1:16 pm**

Garbled interpretation success.Careful may be infectious.My excuse is I am doing a cryptic crossword where the seemingly unrelated contains the answer somehow/somewhere.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 1:19 pm**

PorFavor wrote:
Theresa May is going to give her speech at the Santa Maria Novella church in Florence, it has revealed. (Politics Live, Guardian)
If wet, in church hall.

(I'm assuming the "it has revealed" is an Andrew Sparrow typo - but who knows?)

Or maybe not...original tweet has been deleted. Seemed an odd place for a political speech anyway.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 1:21 pm**

Great bit of Murphy in that clip where he says something like "I use strong words because I'm wanting to start a debate. Nobody talked about tax avoidance a few years ago.."

Really? I'm reminded of Alan Partridge saying nobody had heard of Oxford before Inspector Morse.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 1:25 pm**

: Capture4.PNG (27.27 KiB) Viewed 13290 times

No freedom of movement only really leaves "a Canada", though, surely? We wouldn't do a Turkey, just the Customs Union, that would make no sense at all. So there isn't anything else once you rule out freedom of movement other than a trade agreement like Canada struck. I'm doubtful that freedom of movement is really a red line in reality. Perhaps the speech is about accepting the four freedoms for the transition period?

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 1:30 pm**

Yeah, I think they could end up having to do freedom of movement. And the ECJ. May walks, in comes Damian Green or somebody.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 2:09 pm**

Willow904 wrote:
Capture4.PNG
No freedom of movement only really leaves "a Canada", though, surely? We wouldn't do a Turkey, just the Customs Union, that would make no sense at all. So there isn't anything else once you rule out freedom of movement other than a trade agreement like Canada struck. I'm doubtful that freedom of movement is really a red line in reality. Perhaps the speech is about accepting the four freedoms for the transition period?

I am quite certain we will "do a turkey", though in the voting for Christmas sense rather than the one you intended

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 2:12 pm**

PoliticsHome‏Verified account
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NEW: Sadiq Khan WILL address Labour conference following behind-the-scenes row

How real was this "row" I wonder?

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 2:30 pm**

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
PoliticsHome‏Verified account
@politicshome
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NEW: Sadiq Khan WILL address Labour conference following behind-the-scenes row
How real was this "row" I wonder?

Still awaiting the full programme I guess.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 2:32 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As the government continues its mission to pull Britain out of the single market at apparently any cost, the last hope for remainers and soft Brexiters could lie in the least glamorous and most surprising of places: article 127 of the 1994 European Economic Area (EEA) agreement. This obscure legal clause could, indeed, be all that stands between Britain’s economy and a cliff edge.

Whether or not article 127 needs to be triggered was a question doing the rounds earlier in the year and is now coming back to the fore. I follow some of the arguments of why it needs to be triggered or doesn't need to be triggered (frustrating we're plowing ahead with all this without establishing the legal necessities first) but the implication of the EU withdrawal bill seems less clear. The article says that the government can't take away rights without a vote in parliament but isn't that what the withdrawal bill is all about? To give the government the powers it needs to Brexit without consulting parliament? And wouldn't that include the power to leave the single market on ministerial whim? Don't really know.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 2:54 pm**

This was about the "Look at us - we're now 8th in the world!!!" that some were crowing about the other day.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 3:12 pm**

https://www.policyforum.labour.org.uk/a ... nsultation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
State Pension Consultation
As part of the Labour Party's commitment to ensuring dignity and security in older age, we are launching a national conversation across the country to discuss how we can best protect and improve the State Pension.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 3:58 pm**

Barnier in anticipation of May's speech...

He said the EU would not give Britain a bespoke trade deal with the benefits of the single market but not the disadvantages. Barnier has said this before - indeed, many EU leaders have said this repeatedly - but his words are significant because the briefing after today’s cabinet suggests that this is exactly what Theresa May will ask for.

We really haven't got a clue.

Guardian daily politics summary here. Full speech text here.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 4:00 pm**

Labour 44% (+2)
CON: 40% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)

via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 4:05 pm**

HindleA wrote:Labour 44% (+2)
CON: 40% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)

via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep

In some ways the most surprising figures there are UKIP 2 and Green 1. Wow.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 4:18 pm**

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
HindleA wrote:Labour 44% (+2)
CON: 40% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)

via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep
In some ways the most surprising figures there are UKIP 2 and Green 1. Wow.

The two horse race reflects, perhaps, the binary question of the moment - in or out, hard Brexit or soft Brexit.

Could change significantly as the details of Brexit become more clear. If the Tories take a softer line they could lose some of those ex-UKip voters, although they could also gain some moderate waverers back into the fold. A tricky line to straddle for May. Whose support is she most fearful of losing? We may find out tomorrow, I suppose.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 4:34 pm**

Good-afternoon, everyone

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 4:48 pm**

Irish border data underlines huge task facing Brexit negotiators

Official analysis shows scale of potential disruption from hard border, finding there were more than 110m crossings last year
...

The scale of possible disruption through the introduction of a post-Brexit hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is underlined by the estimate that, in May this year at selected crossing points, there were 118,000 private vehicle crossings on a daily basis

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 4:53 pm**

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/09/thi ... st-of-all/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This new Tory Brexit battle will be the bloodiest of all
After more than 50 years of civil war, the Conservatives still can’t agree what kind of deal they want

Lots of "time for May to make up her mind" stuff in this Spectator article. Paints a picture of a pivotal speech tomorrow which could spark all out Tory civil war over Europe that could rumble on for years. Course, being May, it could just as easily turn out to be a damp squib of nothingness, yet more "all the benefits of the single market without freedom of movement" rubbish. The four freedoms are what make it a single market and its being a single market is where the benefits derive from. The EU have made it clear this isn't possible for the simple reason this isn't possible. So the question is will May get real and negotiate a proper deal or is she going to provoke a fake storm to justify a walk out?

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 5:00 pm**

Ian Birrell's latest in the Guardian

...as the rats desert their sinking ship, they absolve themselves of any blame for the debacle.

Dave's former speech writer

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 5:07 pm**

Will she just be talking about 'transition', or moving on to the final deal?

I think it was Paul Mason said the other day, the moment May sets out the model she wants long-term is the moment it goes tits-up in the tory party, I don't think he's wrong.
All the time she's wasting kicking the can down the road to avoid that moment makes economic disaster more and more likely.

Who the hell are the 40% who support them, they're bonkers. Many of my neighbours, I fear.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 5:16 pm**

gilsey wrote: Who the hell are the 40% who support them, they're bonkers. Many of my neighbours, I fear.

In many cases, people who still read the papers. And believe them.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 6:04 pm**

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
gilsey wrote: Who the hell are the 40% who support them, they're bonkers. Many of my neighbours, I fear.
In many cases, people who still read the papers. And believe them.

Ah yes. the mind controllers from the 1980s.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 6:10 pm**

Well there is good news, newspaper circulation is dropping by the month (not least because their reliable readers are, quite literally, dying off)

Hopefully things will reach a critical mass and their falsehoods and distortions will no longer be treated almost reverentially by the broadcasters (especially, of course, the BBC)

I used to say before the 2015 GE that the press were screwed long term and this was very bad news for the Tories. What happened then (their pulling it out of the fire for the blue team at the last minute) made me wonder if I had been over-optimistic on this occasion, but its now looking that I was maybe only slightly out regarding the timing.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 6:33 pm**

Two way-working to and from the worst prejudices of people.If you've had the headlines parrotted to you re.mass fraud which is miniscule,perhaps not so dismissive of potential influence.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 6:34 pm**

RIP William G Stewart.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 7:02 pm**

Michael Crick
✔
@MichaelLCrick

I'm told negotiator EU Michel Barnier is likely to respond within 15 minutes of Theresa May making her big EU speech in Florence tomorrow (Politics Live, Guardian)

All this drawn-out performance at this end - but a 15 minute turnaround at the other.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 7:17 pm**

PorFavor wrote:
Michael Crick
✔
@MichaelLCrick

I'm told negotiator EU Michel Barnier is likely to respond within 15 minutes of Theresa May making her big EU speech in Florence tomorrow (Politics Live, Guardian)
All this drawn-out performance at this end - but a 15 minute turnaround at the other.

I've no doubt Barnier is a quick thinker and his abilities considerable
May isn't much of a thinker at all and hasn't much ability
It sounds as though Barnier knows how he's going to respond to May's speech regardless of the content of her speech
Which is probably wise on his part

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 8:09 pm**

Well, she's going to the wrong place and for the wrong audience. Let's hope she's got the right day - or that the venue isn't double-booked.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 8:22 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... n-disarray" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jeremy Corbyn: Labour is now the mainstream, with Tories in disarray

Was Labour ever not the mainstream? I mean, since the 1920s at any rate.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:10 pm**

Evening all.

'Er indoors is indeed now indoors...

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:11 pm**

Excellent.Good to hear.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:12 pm**

Priced Out? The affordability crisis in London

https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/priced-out" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:13 pm**

Night night.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:19 pm**

Let us think of the most inappropriate location for a PIP assessment.That'll do.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:30 pm**

PorFavor wrote:Well, she's going to the wrong place and for the wrong audience. Let's hope she's got the right day - or that the venue isn't double-booked.

Ooh you are referencing the time when she got the wrong day I think

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... nyway.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

May-got-date-wrong-but-Qatada-appeal-bid-rejected-anyway

She could also walk the wrong way out of her house

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... treet.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The-Lady-turning-Theresa-jokes-photographers-trying-wrong-way-Downing-Street

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:31 pm**

"Hostile environment",already dear,for many not the few.

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:54 pm**

PorFavor wrote:Night night.

Goodnight, PorFavor

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 9:55 pm**

@RogerOThornhill
Please give my love to your family

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 10:06 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -105585582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Remove society’s safety net and what do we get? Disabled toddlers in dirty clothes

Frances Ryan

NB Social Fund still exists -regulated Winter Fuel Payments,Sure Start Maternity grants,cold weather payments,funeral expenses payment and discretionary-budgeting loans

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... 16-to-2017" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 11:10 pm**

So apparently May will say that Brexit will be, wait for it,

smooth and sensible

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 11:24 pm**

Bollocks,hey ho

Posted: **Thu 21 Sep, 2017 11:25 pm**

I should have pretended not to be "watching" I never learn

Posted: **Fri 22 Sep, 2017 2:34 am**

NZ

Poll of the final polls - too complicated to call (latest polls have swung back to National)

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political ... ed-to-call" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/on-the-in ... s-to-watch" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Close calls and cliffhangers: the electorates to watch

"The unprecedented number of people taking advantage of early voting will mean there is a huge number of votes already counted by early Saturday evening.

Those results will be made available by the Electoral Commission almost immediately after the polling booths close at 7pm.(8am Sat)

The commission expects almost half of people intending to vote will have done so before Saturday, so the final party vote result is going to be expected much earlier than in previous years.

We could have a fairly good indication of the final result almost immediately."

FlyTheNest

Thursday 21st September 2017

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