Thursday 16th November 2017

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PaulfromYorkshire
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Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Morning All

I didn't see much coverage of the Brexit debate from yesterday so have been trying to make some sense of it myself.

Heidi Alexander brought forward an amendment that, if I understand correctly, would have limited the Withdrawal Bill so that a separate bill would have been needed for us to leave the EEA. In other words departure would have meant becoming Norwayesque until further notice.

Of course it failed. The Brexiteers call those Tories voting for it "mutineers". Yet most of the prominent Leave campaigners advocated something very like a Norway solution before the Referendum. Alexander's point is a very strong one and needs repeating and repeating. It is absurd to interpret the Referendum result as a call for "Hard Brexit". Virtually nobody proposed it. It wasn't on the ballot paper. It is not "mutiny" to suggest remaining in the EEA.
PorFavor
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Good morfternoon.
PorFavor
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Thursrday?
tinybgoat
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by tinybgoat »

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... eresa-may/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"British Prime Minister Theresa May’s visit to the European Parliament later this month was canceled on Wednesday only a day after it was announced."
But in a snub to the embattled British PM, the assembly has already canceled, formally because many of them won’t be in Brussels that day, two Parliament officials told POLITICO.
“A number of group leaders weren’t able to rearrange their agenda at such short notice,” a Parliament official said. “On Fridays they are scheduled to be in their constituencies or capitals.”
(oh and Good Mornring)
Last edited by tinybgoat on Thu 16 Nov, 2017 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
SpinningHugo
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

Which amendment has the best odds of passing? Given the presence of the likes of Field and Hoey, the Tory rebellion needs to be quite large? Corbyn doesn't seem exactly energised by the fight, but nobody really expects him to be.

I assume the real problems come in the House of Lords not the Commons?

Quite a few theories about why Labour isn't doing better in the polls considering the nuclear meltdown that is the Tory party. I think one is that the news is all Brexit, and Labour hasn't really presented any substantive opposition. I think Starmer is primarily to blame for that, not Corbyn who personally favours Brexit and so can hardly be expected to be Labour's weapon of opposition.
SpinningHugo
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

Seamus Milne is very funny

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/de ... ce-russian" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, just as with all those question marks over whether Assad is really a bad guy.

The moral collapse of a once great party.
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citizenJA
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by citizenJA »

Good-morning, everyone
PorFavor
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

tinybgoat wrote:https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... eresa-may/
"British Prime Minister Theresa May’s visit to the European Parliament later this month was canceled on Wednesday only a day after it was announced."
But in a snub to the embattled British PM, the assembly has already canceled, formally because many of them won’t be in Brussels that day, two Parliament officials told POLITICO.
“A number of group leaders weren’t able to rearrange their agenda at such short notice,” a Parliament official said. “On Fridays they are scheduled to be in their constituencies or capitals.”
(oh and Good Mornring)
Subsequent engagements suddenly came to their attention?
tinybgoat
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by tinybgoat »

http://today.breaking.hoxforum.com/news ... n-the-west" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think we need to see more evidence about what’s being talked about.
Good to see that while Johnson & May are denying Russian influence of Brexit, Milne saying we need to see more evidence.
;)
edit, Brexit not bedsit (pred. txt)
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

PorFavor wrote:Thursrday?
Whoops - corrected ;-)
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

SpinningHugo wrote:Which amendment has the best odds of passing? Given the presence of the likes of Field and Hoey, the Tory rebellion needs to be quite large? Corbyn doesn't seem exactly energised by the fight, but nobody really expects him to be.

I assume the real problems come in the House of Lords not the Commons?

Quite a few theories about why Labour isn't doing better in the polls considering the nuclear meltdown that is the Tory party. I think one is that the news is all Brexit, and Labour hasn't really presented any substantive opposition. I think Starmer is primarily to blame for that, not Corbyn who personally favours Brexit and so can hardly be expected to be Labour's weapon of opposition.
I'd really welcome some discussion of your first question. What I've seen from my obviously "biased" (in the unemotional sense) Twitter feed is that the "final vote" is the most contentious issue.

The Labour isn't doing well in the polls meme is an interesting one. In truth Labour are 15% ahead of where they were a year ago, which is a major achievement by any standards. At first sight, the Tories have maintained their share and that perhaps is the nub of the "meme". The lead should be higher? But that ignores the almost complete collapse of UKIP and I think we can be pretty sure where most of those votes have gone.

Surely the true story is the surprising reemergence of two-party politics in England. I don't think many of us would have predicted that a year or so ago.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

SpinningHugo wrote:Seamus Milne is very funny

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/de ... ce-russian" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, just as with all those question marks over whether Assad is really a bad guy.

The moral collapse of a once great party.
Jeremy Corbyn in "ratchet down tension" and "promote dialogue" shocker.

It's hard to believe I know :twisted:
SpinningHugo
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Seamus Milne is very funny

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/de ... ce-russian" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, just as with all those question marks over whether Assad is really a bad guy.

The moral collapse of a once great party.
Jeremy Corbyn in "ratchet down tension" and "promote dialogue" shocker.

It's hard to believe I know :twisted:

See also the statements of D Trump on the same issue.

Good intentions all round no doubt.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Seamus Milne is very funny

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/de ... ce-russian" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, just as with all those question marks over whether Assad is really a bad guy.

The moral collapse of a once great party.
Jeremy Corbyn in "ratchet down tension" and "promote dialogue" shocker.

It's hard to believe I know :twisted:

See also the statements of D Trump on the same issue.

Good intentions all round no doubt.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
SpinningHugo
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Which amendment has the best odds of passing? Given the presence of the likes of Field and Hoey, the Tory rebellion needs to be quite large? Corbyn doesn't seem exactly energised by the fight, but nobody really expects him to be.

I assume the real problems come in the House of Lords not the Commons?

Quite a few theories about why Labour isn't doing better in the polls considering the nuclear meltdown that is the Tory party. I think one is that the news is all Brexit, and Labour hasn't really presented any substantive opposition. I think Starmer is primarily to blame for that, not Corbyn who personally favours Brexit and so can hardly be expected to be Labour's weapon of opposition.
I'd really welcome some discussion of your first question. What I've seen from my obviously "biased" (in the unemotional sense) Twitter feed is that the "final vote" is the most contentious issue.

The Labour isn't doing well in the polls meme is an interesting one. In truth Labour are 15% ahead of where they were a year ago, which is a major achievement by any standards. At first sight, the Tories have maintained their share and that perhaps is the nub of the "meme". The lead should be higher? But that ignores the almost complete collapse of UKIP and I think we can be pretty sure where most of those votes have gone.

Surely the true story is the surprising reemergence of two-party politics in England. I don't think many of us would have predicted that a year or so ago.
Well, I agree with your last point. The Lib Dems are completely stuffed. If they cannot get any traction when the Tories are in complete meltdown, and Labour is led by Corbyn. Milne. McDonnell, Murray, and Fisher pursuing a near identical policy on Brexit to the Tories, they're doomed.

The other reason I'd give for Labour's surprising weakness is the poverty of the frontbench. Corbyn and McDonnell have grown into the role, and have stronger presentation skills. Corbyn can be exceptionally boring and flat,he is a paint by numbers 1970s Campaign Group member after all, but that is now baked into the numbers. I know some rate Rayner, but I still don't see it. None of the rest are troubling the scorers. Thornberry? I think there are good reasons why Miliband was happy to drop her. Compared to previous frontbenches it is exceptionally bad.

And looking at the numbers, it doesn't at the moment look like the Tories will lose any votes on the amendments as none have come close so far.
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adam
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by adam »

I agree with Paul that a lot of ideas about leaving that were considered perfectly legitimate during the campaign are now considered verboten by the hard leave crew. The problem is that the leadership of the conservative party, and therefore the government, appear to have been captured by the hard leave crew. The question is going to arise as to how far the tory 'rebels' will go, and I have no faith in them until they give me reason to. Effectively, either specifically in name or clearly in effect, they are going to have to defy the government on a question of confidence and vote for an election - or for chaos, voting down the governments plans and then voting for the government on a specific confidence vote, which is bound to lead to the hard exit they don't support (because the clock is ticking and if we do nothing we leave with no deal in March 2019). I can't see much to be confident about.
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howsillyofme1
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Good morning all

Can someone explain why this perceived (by one person) weakness of Starmer's is to blame for Labiour being 'only' on around 43% in the polls?

Greens and Lib Dems are polling very lowly so the only pool of Remain votes left would seem to be the SNP - and that ignores the dynamics up there?

So instead of just asserting it - can the person proposing it give some reasoning behind it?
I see no evidence for any of the insinuations made and, as Paul says, we are back to a politics not seen since the late 70s with Labour and Tory polling so high - the dynamics are completely different and harking back to elections 20 years and more ago is weak to be honest

And one final thing, are we absolutely confident on the capability of the pollsters and their ability to predict a GE result based on the last few attempts they have made.....?

The reality is we have a Strange dynamic at the moment in which the shadow of Brexit looms large.....

Another example of some very poor and intellectually lazy posting by the one person on here who likes to exude a certain intellectual superiority....and fails

What should Labour be polling then?
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Thursrday 16th November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

SpinningHugo wrote:Which amendment has the best odds of passing? Given the presence of the likes of Field and Hoey, the Tory rebellion needs to be quite large? Corbyn doesn't seem exactly energised by the fight, but nobody really expects him to be.
They're almost the only Labour MPs still voting with the Tories now.
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NonOxCol
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by NonOxCol »

Hey look kids, it's a millionaire "working class hero", and possibly the only British man whose reputation has fallen even more vertiginously than Tony Blair's since 1997, telling people to shut up and stop moaning!

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If only he would shut up, stop singing and stop talking.
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by AngryAsWell »

David Miliband on R5 talking a lot of sense at the moment
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

As for why the polls aren't moving more, Phil BC's recent stuff on "polarisation" isn't a bad start.

Though some claims made about this are questionable anyway - how many times *have* the opposition actually been 15-20 points ahead within 6 months of an election??

Asking for a friend ;)
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SpinningHugo
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:As for why the polls aren't moving more, Phil BC's recent stuff on "polarisation" isn't a bad start.

Though some claims made about this are questionable anyway - how many times *have* the opposition actually been 15-20 points ahead within 6 months of an election??

Asking for a friend ;)

You could turn it on its head.

How often has an opposition *not* been 20 points ahead when the governing party is in such obvious and complete meltdown?

But hey, I was wrong about Corbyn's electability before, so maybe I am again.
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Its only "obvious" to those who want to see it. There has been, as yet, no overwhelming Black Wednesday type event to shake those who don't out of their illusions.
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howsillyofme1
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:As for why the polls aren't moving more, Phil BC's recent stuff on "polarisation" isn't a bad start.

Though some claims made about this are questionable anyway - how many times *have* the opposition actually been 15-20 points ahead within 6 months of an election??

Asking for a friend ;)

You could turn it on its head.

How often has an opposition *not* been 20 points ahead when the governing party is in such obvious and complete meltdown?

But hey, I was wrong about Corbyn's electability before, so maybe I am again.

Well at last you do admit to being wrong!

So what should Labour be polling 45 vs 25, 50 vs 30, 60 vs 40?

Give us a number and your rational behind it? I would say the Tories will not fall below 40% without a major event as they have the Brexiteers with them who do not think Labour will develop the Brexit they want....so if I keep that assumption then you would be saying Labour should be 55-60% - a ridiculous assertion

Blair didn't beat Major by 20 points in the 97 election did he? The polls were over-estimating his lead, just as they over-estimated Cameron in 2010 and May in 2017. Actually using polling as a guide is a flawed strategy in my view as they do not seem to be able to do what they should do ie predict the result!

The Tories are a shambles but the harrassment cases are hitting Labour too and the media is doing its job to spread the blame (Something they did not really do over expenses). Austerity has been a disaster but then Labour was also complicit in supporting that in recent history as well and those most affected are probably not on the YouGov polling panels are they.

There has been no disaster equivalent to the ERM fiasco in 92 that leads to a direct effect on those who could change their votes...the home owners with a mortgage who have been enjoying the bounty of low mortgage rates.
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by tinybgoat »

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Why is the government’s support holding up? As ever, there is never a single simple reason, but part of it is that most people don’t pay much attention to the day-to-day soap opera of politics, so individual scandals will not necessarily make a huge difference. Secondly, while even most Tory voters think the government are struggling to deliver their aims, they do mostly agree with what they are trying to do. Thirdly, there are a significant chunk of Tory voters who don’t think they are governing well and don’t agree with what they are doing… but would still vote for them because they aren’t Labour.
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

And its that third group in particular who are detachable, but it may take a while.
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adam
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by adam »

It's worth noting that Con+UKIP combined actually polled over 50% in 2015, and then combined actually polled just over 44% in 2017. Labour polled about 30% in 2015 and about 40% in 2015. Until people who are either fairly set in their ways or are fairly resigned to what's happening start to see the actual effects of leaving the EU and some of them - far far from all but some of them - start to change their minds, it's difficult to see much change in opinion polling.
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tinybgoat
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by tinybgoat »

http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-majo ... it-2017-11" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"A majority of British people now think it was 'wrong' to vote for Brexit"
Image
Again it's only a small shift, but then result was marginal to start with.
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Yes, that is an indicator well worth following.
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gilsey
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by gilsey »

tinybgoat wrote:http://ukpollingreport.co.uk
Why is the government’s support holding up? As ever, there is never a single simple reason, but part of it is that most people don’t pay much attention to the day-to-day soap opera of politics, so individual scandals will not necessarily make a huge difference. Secondly, while even most Tory voters think the government are struggling to deliver their aims, they do mostly agree with what they are trying to do. Thirdly, there are a significant chunk of Tory voters who don’t think they are governing well and don’t agree with what they are doing… but would still vote for them because they aren’t Labour.
I think Brexit is putting a floor under the tory poll numbers, unless/until leave voters start changing their minds in significant numbers I can't see the polls moving much.

I know there are plenty of commentators saying Labour/Corbyn are as keen on brexit as the tories but I don't think that's the public perception. Hard brexit = tory to the man on the Clapham omnibus.
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by gilsey »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:As for why the polls aren't moving more, Phil BC's recent stuff on "polarisation" isn't a bad start.
This is the one you mean? It's very good.
http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot. ... ation.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Here's the clever thing. This constitution of Tory support as an economic bloc of (perceived) shared interests isn't just about the defining and aligning of shared frames, it is done so in a series of active oppositions, of locating their interests against others, of creating a constituency and perfoming as if in opposition to other constituencies and coalitions of voters.
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Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Mayism, like Hard Brexit, is now culture war.

As Gilsey says, Labour aren't seen as like the Tories on Brexit by most people. They picked up lots of Tory Remainer votes for this reason.
PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Number of untaxed vehicles in UK trebles after tax disc abolition

Around £107m a year in road improvement revenue is being lost after DVLA reveals untaxed cars and vans on UK roads has surged to 700,000

The RAC’s public affairs manager, Nicholas Lyes, said: “These figures are extremely concerning. Clearly, since the tax disc was abolished there has been a significant increase in untaxed vehicles on our roads. This latest data suggests it is now costing the Treasury more than £107m in lost revenue over a full year – higher than in any year since 2007. The Treasury noted that abolishing the paper tax disc would save £10m, however it now seems the changes are proving extremely costly.” (Guardian)
Another brilliant idea for "saving money". Apparently the wheel-clampers are doing alright out of it, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... -duty-dvla
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Mayism, like Hard Brexit, is now culture war.

As Gilsey says, Labour aren't seen as like the Tories on Brexit by most people. They picked up lots of Tory Remainer votes for this reason.
Well, some at any rate. Though this group is at least as notable as the one that saved the LibDems from near electoral extinction.
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PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Brook House asylum seekers in legal fight over lock-in procedures

Five men calling for overhaul of unsanitary toilets and being locked in cells for 13 hours a day at removal centre near Gatwick (Guardian)
Ah - G4S. You can't fault 'em, you know.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... procedures
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citizenJA
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by citizenJA »

PorFavor wrote:
Number of untaxed vehicles in UK trebles after tax disc abolition

Around £107m a year in road improvement revenue is being lost after DVLA reveals untaxed cars and vans on UK roads has surged to 700,000

The RAC’s public affairs manager, Nicholas Lyes, said: “These figures are extremely concerning. Clearly, since the tax disc was abolished there has been a significant increase in untaxed vehicles on our roads. This latest data suggests it is now costing the Treasury more than £107m in lost revenue over a full year – higher than in any year since 2007. The Treasury noted that abolishing the paper tax disc would save £10m, however it now seems the changes are proving extremely costly.” (Guardian)
Another brilliant idea for "saving money". Apparently the wheel-clampers are doing alright out of it, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... -duty-dvla
It's dangerous having unauthorised vehicles on the road
PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Leaked EU paper dents May's hopes for bespoke Brexit trade deal

PM may want ‘deep and special’ relationship, but paper says UK will have to make do with ‘standard FTA’ like Canada’s (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... trade-deal
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by HindleA »

#DavidBrindle


Worst fears realised - social care green paper will be older people only.


Fucking fuck fuck ad infinitum.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

PorFavor wrote:
Leaked EU paper dents May's hopes for bespoke Brexit trade deal

PM may want ‘deep and special’ relationship, but paper says UK will have to make do with ‘standard FTA’ like Canada’s (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... trade-deal
Amidst the gloom, this inexplicably has got me chuckling ;-)
One senior EU official said the British cabinet was still in “cuckoo land” if it believed the EU would offer anything more.
PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Leaked EU paper dents May's hopes for bespoke Brexit trade deal

PM may want ‘deep and special’ relationship, but paper says UK will have to make do with ‘standard FTA’ like Canada’s (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... trade-deal
Amidst the gloom, this inexplicably has got me chuckling ;-)
One senior EU official said the British cabinet was still in “cuckoo land” if it believed the EU would offer anything more.

Yes - I had a little chortle.
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Cuckoo Land was a short (13 episodes, ½ hour each) TV drama/adventure series from New Zealand, produced in 1986.[1]

The series was screened on Britain's CBBC in 1991.[1]

:lol: :lol: :lol:
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Cuckoo Land
New Zealand, TVNZ (Gibson Group), Children's sitcom, Colour, 1986
Starring: Jennifer Ludlam, Grant Tilly, Paul Holmes

A fun, freewheeling children's series from New Zealand that blended wacky ideas with a zany premise set in and around a house (the director hinted at an influence of The Young Ones and employed human actors, models and psychedelic special effects.The heroes of the story were Petunia, an aspiring rock star, and her two children, Polly and Patch, who buy the house in question. They discover a neighbour, Branchy, who lives in a tree house and hammers all day long, and he and plenty of visiting characters populate the storylines. There were some nice ideas along the way: in one episode Inland Revenue inspectors arrived in triplicate complete with yards of red tape while a Library Task Force descends upon the scene with a mobile returns desk and 'due-date' stamp.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Branchy sounds a bit like Michael Gove?
PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

And the Referendum was certainly one of David Cameron's more wacky ideas . . .
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

PorFavor wrote:And the Referendum was certainly one of David Cameron's more wacky ideas . . .
Maybe the "EU Official" knew what he was saying :lol:
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

HindleA where did your post go?
HindleA
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by HindleA »

#DavidBrindle

Cabinet Office asks me to point out that need of younger adults will be considered by 'a parallel programme of work' led by DH and DCLG'. You may or may not be reassured.


FFS.


@Paul re-re -re deleted /edited.
HindleA
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by HindleA »

And it is still shit!!

:D
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

But at least it's nearly time to
HindleA
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Re: Thursday 16th November 2017

Post by HindleA »

To me,to you,oh go on then



PF

PTO.
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