Wednesday 22nd November 2017

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adam
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by adam »

I would add that I'm less bothered about what Labour's strategy should be now about dealing with leave because I just don't believe they'll be in a position to do anything about it. I know there is ongoing talk about conservative rebels and I know the kinds of things some of them have bee saying in the commons but until it happens I do not believe that they will vote against the government on what will be, actually or effectively, a question of confidence.

I think things could happen that make the DUP abandon their deal but I don't think that means they would vote the government down and unless they did the government will survive - with a squeak sometimes, but they'll survive.

Labour concerns need to be about how to cope with what's left after we've left. That might well involve having to re-negotiate some kind of closer engagement with the EU although I find it very difficult to believe that we could politically afford to rejoin without a referendum and I find it very difficult to believe that a referendum to rejoin (on terms that would not be anything like as good as we currently enjoy) could be won.

What's left is a need for Labour to be the awkward squad in the commons - to highlight every problem the government are failing to address. This is coming from the EU's negotiating heads, it's coming from the Irish government and it's coming from other European governments but it isn't being led by the Labour party and it should be.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Willow904
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by Willow904 »

frog222 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:my view is that anyone who opposes Brexit should be glad Labour voted for A50 as if they hadn't then the remote chance of us getting out of this situation would have been lost as we would be seeing a Tory majority Government (perhaps with a much expanded majority as well) with hard Brexit on their minds

So we would have people happy that Labour had voted against A50 but still lost the vote, probably lost a whole lot of support and then been probably battered in a GE.

The idea that A50 was ever in Labour's hands was preposterous....it would have been a gesture and would have left us in an even worse position than we are in now - how did the Lib Dems do in the election - if Labour were so wrong why did the majority of Remainers vote Labour rather than the other option?

We have been over this time and again and it is a pain to repeat myself but one poster still keeps repeating the same stuff and I don't think we should let it go unchallenged

Labour did not vote to leave the EU, they voted to uphold the result of the referendum - there is a distinct difference between the two. I think the more valid criticism is asking why they voted for such an appallingly drafted referendum bill in the first place.
"" I think the more valid criticism is asking why they voted for such an appallingly drafted referendum bill in the first place.""


Not having a vote anywhere I didn't folllow this as closely as you people, but am still mystified that there were no safeguards in place for eventualities such as a 50% plus one vote situation. Surely most legislatures need 60% majorities for constitutional changes ?
Looking back it seems to me that the referendum was proposed as advisory rather than binding precisely to avoid a demand for such safeguards which, if not forthcoming, could well have jeopardised its passage, especially in the Lords.

As the Russian connections and dark money and US billionaire involvement in the Leave campaign becomes apparent and as Cameron's tax haven connections and EU moves towards transparency at this very point in time come into focus, I'm less and less certain that Cameron actually wanted to win the referendum at all.
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PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

My "snap verdict" on the budget is that Philip Hammond was playing solely to the Conservative Commons gallery. And for "on-the-day" consumption only. Use by 23\11\2017.
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Willow904
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by Willow904 »

PorFavor wrote:My "snap verdict" on the budget is that Philip Hammond was playing solely to the Conservative Commons gallery. And for "on-the-day" consumption only. Use by 23\11\2017.
There was a lot of waffle at the beginning about computers and our tech industry which I assumed was a bid to appeal to the elusive yoof vote that didn't actually involve giving them economic priority over wealthy pensioners.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by citizenJA »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Corbyn's questions outstanding
May responded with lies
The usual, then?
Yep
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... 5-and-2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Statistical Release for Reported Treasure Finds (2015 and 2016)
Last edited by HindleA on Wed 22 Nov, 2017 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Willow904 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:My "snap verdict" on the budget is that Philip Hammond was playing solely to the Conservative Commons gallery. And for "on-the-day" consumption only. Use by 23\11\2017.
There was a lot of waffle at the beginning about computers and our tech industry which I assumed was a bid to appeal to the elusive yoof vote that didn't actually involve giving them economic priority over wealthy pensioners.
All hat and no rabbit.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

PF thanks for the general description of your appearance of which I concur,but what do you think of the budget?
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Why is Philip Hammond so obsessed with driverless cars?
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

He is one.
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Willow904
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by Willow904 »

HindleA wrote:He is one.
:lol!:
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

I can foresee very good potential,to be fair.Not least increasing the amount of bemoaning of "giving people free (driverless) cars",I live and dream.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

Far more advanced than PhilHammond version,clarification.
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adam
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by adam »

HindleA wrote:I can foresee very good potential,to be fair.Not least increasing the amount of bemoaning of "giving people free (driverless) cars",I live and dream.
I can see driverless cars/vans/lorries being a great success until the second time one crushes a minibus full of children, when they will become one of those things that nobody will ever believe is actually a safer way of doing things regardless of what the statistics say.
I still believe in a town called Hope
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

HindleA wrote:I can foresee very good potential,to be fair.Not least increasing the amount of bemoaning of "giving people free (driverless) cars",I live and dream.

What - they're the new 90 yard plasma TVs? (Not that I ever found out what they were.)
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

Sounds a bit medical to me.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

My magic carpet transportation system still waiting for funding.
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by citizenJA »

I stepped away from the computer for a couple hours to do some cleaning
Thank you all for some of the coverage I didn't see
Anyone having any favourite reactions from anyone they'd like to share, please do
I'm overwhelmed by information
tinybgoat
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by tinybgoat »

PorFavor wrote:Why is Philip Hammond so obsessed with driverless cars?
https://www.techworld.com/apps-wearable ... e-3598209/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Driverless cars in the UK have no legal barriers - a unique position against the rest of the world.
edit: suppose that doesn't really answer why,but suggests we're going to be a nation of crash-test dummies
Last edited by tinybgoat on Wed 22 Nov, 2017 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Ten local council byelections last week:

Chiltern DC - Tory hold a very safe seat, beating the LibDems in a straight fight by over 4 to 1. This ward returned two Tories unopposed in 2015, and before that they had the LibDems as their sole opponents in 2003, 2007 and 2011 - scoring in the 70s or better every time. Not much else to say, really - the sort of place you might hope for an intervention by someone else (even Labour) just to see how they might do ;)

Fylde DC - Tory hold with 70% of the vote in a ward which safely returned 2 members for them in 2015 in a straight fight with Labour, and they were actually unopposed in come 2007. Though they haven't always had it all their own way - they were run close by an Independent in 2011 and by Labour back in 2003 - this is fundamentally safe Tory territory and they had a healthy increase this time. Labour down from around a third two years ago to 20% now - maybe having a candidate from Blackpool (when the Tory was local) didn't help - and LibDems stood for the first time this millennium but had to be content with less than 7%.

West Lindsey DC - Tory hold, beating Labour by over 2 to 1 in a straight fight. In previous years this area was Independent - they were actually unopposed back in 2000 - but Tories took it in 2004, albeit being run fairly close by their sole LibDem opponent - and have since made this safe. Tory share was little changed on 2015, whilst Labour took advantage of no LibDem candidate this time to advance by double figures into the 30s.

South Holland DC - another Tory hold in a safe division and yet another straight fight, beating Labour by over 3 to 1 this time. Independents shared the seats with Tories here in 2007, before the Tories took both seats in 2011 and then beat a sole UKIP candidate by a relatively close 55-45 in 2015, so this is the first time recently that this ward has been really safe - though Labour might still consider their score in what is fundamentally unpromising territory for them as not too bad.

Eden DC - Liberal Democrat hold with 45%, slightly up on two years ago. This ward has a slightly unusual recent history - in 2003 and 2007 the 3 seats were taken by single LibDem, Tory, and Independent candidates - with only a sole Labour opponent missing out. More "normal" patterns of contestation began in 2011, and seats then split 2LD/1Con - as was also the case in 2015. Tories little changed on last time, but Labour clearly down in 3rd place - in significant part, perhaps, due to a Green candidate standing and getting 7%

Hartlepool - Labour hold with over half the vote in a ward which returned 3 members for them in the 2012 all-out elections and has voted for them ever since. In both 2012 and 2014 Labour's main opposition was provided by the localist group "Putting Hartlepool First" but they were eclipsed in that role by UKIP in 2015, and did not stand the following year or indeed now. In their absence, UKIP scored over 35% - a respectable score even when they were doing well, but quite outstanding now; this is one of the first areas where they got organised properly locally and evidently one of the last where some of that strength remains. Tories have done little here in recent years, and remained a distant third (and last) now.

Waveney DC - two vacancies here, and somewhat contrasting results; the first was a Labour hold in a ward which returned 3 members for them in the 2015 and 2011 all-out contests but before that (when this council elected by thirds) had consistently voted LibDem in every election from 2002 (3 returned in the previous all-out election) until 2008 - sometimes by big margins - until Labour made a breakthrough on GE day in 2010. Two years ago the LibDems did not even stand, and the sole UKIP candidate outpolled 2 of the 3 Tories - their customary decline now (more than halved to 10%) enabled both "main" parties to advance, though there was a small pro-Labour swing overall. UKIP also finished just behind the returning LibDems, with the Greens also more than halved at 4%. The other contest, however, saw a Tory gain from Labour (only the second such result in the past six months) in a ward which has consistently voted Labour since 2002 - but with a remarkable number of Tory near misses (just 8 votes in 2006, and not much more on several other occasions) This time round they were helped by not just the customary UKIP slump (from a close third and over a quarter of the vote in 2015 to 10% again now) but - in contrast to the other seat - Labour's own failure to advance (and it has been darkly muttered that the ethnicity of Labour's candidate was a factor here) which meant a double figure increase to over 40% was more than enough. LibDems with 7% after sitting the last election here out, meaning they finished ahead of the Greens who dropped a bit.

Darlington - two vacancies here as well, the first was in a normally safe Tory ward which has duly returned two members for them since 2003 though they were run close by Labour in a previous 2014 by-election - there was no repeat of that now as the Tories increased by 13 points to 60% beating Labour, who declined modestly, by over 2 to 1. LibDems got 10% - a significant improvement on their most recent showing in the 2014 vacancy - nd the Greens dropped markedly to just 2%. The other contest was a narrow Labour hold in a basically "new" ward created in boundary changes for the 2015 elections - it returned two Labour members fairly safely then, but a small drop on their own vote combined with a double figure Tory advance to over 40% made it close this time. Unusually this wasn't down to UKIP (who didn't stand two years ago either) but both the Greens and LibDems were squeezed to derisory levels (2-3%) after polling respectably last time. One other point of interest, both were beaten by an officially Independent (and ex-UKIP) candidate, who was de facto the first electoral outing for Anne-Marie Waters breakaway "For Britain" party - they got a somewhat less than mould breaking 8%.

Ten contests again tomorrow.
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howsillyofme1
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

On driverless cars

Clearly coming at some point but when that will be is less clear - it will be difficult enough weaning people off fossil fuel ones and into electric ones, or even hybrid. There are a generatioon of petrolheads out there and until public transport outside urban centres takes up the strain then it will be a challenge

The cities will move quicker and many people in cities no longer need or use cars but that is still nowhere near the majority of people and there is a lot of Investment to make

I would like to see someone setting out a compelling vision of Transport 2040 and how it would look for those not lucky enough to be near a main transport hub

Most people are risk averse and conservative - any changes will be gradual and take décades not years - despite the desires of people like Elon Musk - although someone has to be looking at the innovation as he is - it has to be backed up by true leadership in making it a reality

Disruptive factors such as the Uber model may accelerate things but it is on the back of low regulation to ensure low prices and attempts to drive the competition out - it may solve some problems from a transport perspective but is it the type of society we want to live in?
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by gilsey »

PorFavor wrote:
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s verdict is out!

The independent watchdog confirms that it has cut its productivity and growth forecasts:

We have revised down our productivity and GDP forecasts and, despite lower borrowing this year, revised up our forecast for the budget deficit. The Chancellor has raised the deficit further with higher public spending and a net tax giveaway.

[This chart confirms that the] deficit will be almost twice as big as previously forecast in 2021-22.

(Sorry - no chart but it's over at Politics Live, Guardian - which is where the quote comes from)
So it's been all pain for no gain.
Edited - brackets
Quotes from Osborne's 2010 'emergency' budget.
we make this commitment. Everyone will share in the rewards when we succeed.
If might have been more apt.
The richest paying the most and the vulnerable protected. That is our approach. Prosperity for all. That is our goal.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budg ... ement.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by AngryAsWell »

d Miliband‏Verified account
@Ed_Miliband
Following Following @Ed_Miliband
More Ed Miliband Retweeted Gaby Hinsliff
We should all be deeply concerned about the spread of authoritarian Marxist ideas to the most unlikely places....

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


:lol: :lol:
howsillyofme1
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

AngryAsWell wrote:d Miliband‏Verified account
@Ed_Miliband
Following Following @Ed_Miliband
More Ed Miliband Retweeted Gaby Hinsliff
We should all be deeply concerned about the spread of authoritarian Marxist ideas to the most unlikely places....

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


:lol: :lol:

I love this little digs he makes in his tweets - must give him some bittersweet pleasure......

2015....if only he had just a bit more confidence in his convictions and been a bit more bold then we may not have been in this mess (though the collapse of the LD cannot be put at his door although they do still blame Labour on LDV for being too 'critical and tribal' during the Coalition)
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

AngryAsWell wrote:d Miliband‏Verified account
@Ed_Miliband
Following Following @Ed_Miliband
More Ed Miliband Retweeted Gaby Hinsliff
We should all be deeply concerned about the spread of authoritarian Marxist ideas to the most unlikely places....

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


:lol: :lol:

If only Miliband had had the self-awareness in 2010 to realise how deeply unsited he was to the role of leader, it could all have been so different.
howsillyofme1
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Last week you told us how well suited Cameron was to the role......

I would take my chances with Ed Miliband every time over your guy

For one thing we wouldn’t be in line to leave the EU but then again you never seem to blame Cameron for that funnily enough
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

VoteEd
tinybgoat
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by tinybgoat »

HindleA wrote:My magic carpet transportation system still waiting for funding.
Can it pass over invisible borders?
howsillyofme1
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Oh and for Hugo to accuse someone of lacking self-awareness suggests a real lack of self-awareness!
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

Can't get over the living room/hall border at the moment.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

[youtube]bMIdkWH1c2g[/youtube]
SpinningHugo
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

howsillyofme1 wrote:Last week you told us how well suited Cameron was to the role......

I would take my chances with Ed Miliband every time over your guy

For one thing we wouldn’t be in line to leave the EU but then again you never seem to blame Cameron for that funnily enough
What I said was *ignoring the policies* (I asterisked it at the time), Cameron was well suited to the role. He was a good front of house performer for the Tories, winning in 2015 when the Tories should have lost badly after years of austerity. This is nothing to do with left v right. Miliband managed to lose an election he should have won easily, and which it becomes increasingly clear was the crucial one.

It won't avail you if you are right on ths substance, as Labour was in 2015, if you're fronted by a candidate for PM who is obviously not trusted to fufill the role. Miliband's own tragedy was that he didn't see his own limitations. Just like Brown in that regard. The soft left seems to be full of characters like that,

See

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NB that you don't like the result (and I don't) isn't an argument against the referendum. So, just as you need to be able to distinguish substantive policies and technical proficiency as a political performer (a distinction that eludes you), you'll also need to be able to distinguish between procedural fairness and the substantive outcome.

I doubt you can do that either.
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Vote Green.

[youtube]CUGVOulYh0E[/youtube]

(Is that one of tinyclanger2's mates?)
HindleA
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

https://redbrickblog.wordpress.com/2017 ... s-that-it/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



The great housing budget. Is that it?
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

"The stamp duty cut costs over £900,000 for each additional first time buyer... It would be much cheaper to literally build them a house each."

T.Bell.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

Gingerbread and JRF respond to Budget 2017


http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/24673" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/t ... 40ebe82?x8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Treasury's Own Analysis Reveals Budget Will Hit Poorer Households Hardest Long-Term
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by frog222 »

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... nd-a-laugh" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“” Now we come to the bit with the long economicky words,” he said. Take that, Govey. The opportunist little shit had been eyeing up his job for weeks now. “”

“”Which reminded him. “I’m giving the NHS an extra £350m to see it through the winter,” he said, directing his gaze at Boris Johnson. Not £300m. Not £400m. But £350m. The exact sum the fantasist had promised the NHS would be getting each week “”
SpinningHugo
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by SpinningHugo »

frog222 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... nd-a-laugh

“” Now we come to the bit with the long economicky words,” he said. Take that, Govey. The opportunist little shit had been eyeing up his job for weeks now. “”

“”Which reminded him. “I’m giving the NHS an extra £350m to see it through the winter,” he said, directing his gaze at Boris Johnson. Not £300m. Not £400m. But £350m. The exact sum the fantasist had promised the NHS would be getting each week “”

He is quite funny Hammond.

Genuine question, who else is witty in politics? Foot was. Healey. Who now?
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

frog222 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... nd-a-laugh

“” Now we come to the bit with the long economicky words,” he said. Take that, Govey. The opportunist little shit had been eyeing up his job for weeks now. “”

“”Which reminded him. “I’m giving the NHS an extra £350m to see it through the winter,” he said, directing his gaze at Boris Johnson. Not £300m. Not £400m. But £350m. The exact sum the fantasist had promised the NHS would be getting each week “”
Actually, that's more or less what he did do. It was very much an "in" Budget - that's if you could call it an actual Budget.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Sorry if this has already been linked. Larry Elliott can be very good.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... uez-moment" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

for-the-uk-economy-this-budget-is-its-suez-moment
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by AngryAsWell »

Sky News‏Verified account
@SkyNews


President John F. Kennedy was assassinated 54 years ago today - he was the fourth sitting President to be shot dead by an assassin

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

54 years ago. 54.

Seems like yesterday
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by AngryAsWell »

SpinningHugo wrote:
frog222 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... nd-a-laugh

“” Now we come to the bit with the long economicky words,” he said. Take that, Govey. The opportunist little shit had been eyeing up his job for weeks now. “”

“”Which reminded him. “I’m giving the NHS an extra £350m to see it through the winter,” he said, directing his gaze at Boris Johnson. Not £300m. Not £400m. But £350m. The exact sum the fantasist had promised the NHS would be getting each week “”

He is quite funny Hammond.

Genuine question, who else is witty in politics? Foot was. Healey. Who now?
John smith was the best, will never forget his "hotel falling off a cliff" speech.
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/comment ... lear-53339" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


The government's real priorities are clear
The Budget will cut spending on affordable housing while helping those who would have been able to buy anyway,
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by AngryAsWell »

Adelaide school covers up 'potentially suggestive' statue of saint and child
Blackfriars Priory school covers statue of St Martin de Porres that depicted saint handing a loaf of bread to a young boy

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ?CMP=fb_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

First thought "we have gone crazy" - then I looked at the photo of the statue ......

:shock:
HindleA
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

Did I mention I lived on JFK Avenue in Cyprus.We left before the invasion but have seen pictures since,it was largely unscathed among the scene of desolation,weird feeling seeing it.
HindleA
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by HindleA »

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/let ... ign=buffer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by citizenJA »

Goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA
gilsey
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by gilsey »

In case anyone else was wondering about that 160bn the govt's raised by preventing tax avoidance, full fact have checked it.
https://fullfact.org/economy/government ... ed_content" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's over 7 years.
Includes £51bn 'revenue losses prevented'. Tricky bit of estimation there.
Includes £39bn for this
an estimate of the future benefits of the compliance work already undertaken, spread out over about five years.

So when HMRC and the Prime Minister say £160 billion has been “secured”, they’re actually talking about expected revenue for the future as well, not just what’s actually been realised so far.
And
The largest part of the compliance yield each year is called “cash expected”, which is what HMRC estimates it is likely to recoup in lost revenues that year. It’s adjusted to take into account that it won’t be able to collect every sum it identifies.
The independent National Audit Office is satisfied that “HMRC has robust processes in place for estimating and reporting the value of the yield that it has generated through its compliance activities”
So that's all right then.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 22nd November 2017

Post by PorFavor »

Night night.
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