FlyTheNest

AngryAsWell wrote:"Corbyn meets Costa in Lisbon, and “signals that Labour could be open to second Brexit referendum”

http://portugalresident.com/corbyn-meet ... m%E2%80%9D" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The most convincing scenario for a second referendum I've seen went something like this - govt falls - Labour stands on remain platform - wins - requests withdrawal of A50 - EU insists on referendum, probably with a view to preempting being messed about in future.
Not very convincing is it, but other scenarios even less so imo.

http://m.gulfnews.com/business/analysis ... -1.2134289" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Those pesky sceptics were spot on with their Brexit warnings".

gilsey wrote:

AngryAsWell wrote:"Corbyn meets Costa in Lisbon, and “signals that Labour could be open to second Brexit referendum”

http://portugalresident.com/corbyn-meet ... m%E2%80%9D" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The most convincing scenario for a second referendum I've seen went something like this - govt falls - Labour stands on remain platform - wins - requests withdrawal of A50 - EU insists on referendum, probably with a view to preempting being messed about in future.
Not very convincing is it, but other scenarios even less so imo.

I've given up predicting stuff after the last few years

HindleA wrote:https://beergbrexit.blog/2017/12/03/lon ... -road/amp/

The EU is also likely to offer the UK a strictly, time-limited transition deal, of probably about two years, during which the UK will be a de facto if not de jure member of the EU, with the UK accepting during the transition the EU’s four freedom of movement principles, of people, goods, services and capital, as well as being subject to the jurisdiction of the CJEU.

During the transition, additional payments, over and above the €50 billion, will fall due. During the transition nothing will change and trade in goods and services, including financial services, between the EU and the UK will continue as of today. However, the UK will no longer be able to nominate an EU Commissioner, elect members of the European Parliament, or have a judge on the European Court.

During the transition discussions will open on the substance of the future trade agreement between the EU and the UK. We use the word “discussions” rather than negotiations because, the brutal truth be told, these talks will not be negotiations as most of the readers of this briefing, seasoned labour relations practitioners, understand the meaning of that word. It will be damage limitation on the part of the UK because the UK has initiated a process which it knows will leave it worse off than it is today. No one “negotiates” to make themselves poorer. There may be times when you are forced into such a situation, but Brexit is the first known example of the losing party initiating the process.

A good summmary of where we are . Like AK I'm not predicting anything either

There must be quite a list of how many Article50-voting MP's have stated that the referendum result willl be "an act of self-mutilation". .

Ashmolean Museum to showcase famous US artists 'unknown' in UK (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/201 ... nown-in-uk

I like the look of that Ashmolean show. "Unknown" is putting it a bit strongly, mind.

The Ashmolean have a good permanent collection too.

Hello there??

[youtube]aamvrc6woFM[/youtube]

Hello.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ss-freedom" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The data protection bill is yet another legal threat to UK press freedom

Home Office putting UK's research reputation at risk, says Jeremy Corbyn

Labour leader intervenes in the case of US academic who was denied visa and told to leave country with her British husband (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... earch-risk

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... eport-says" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


NDIS costs and demand overwhelming disability service providers, report says


(Australia)

https://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2017/12/03/st ... sabilities" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Statement by the Prime Minister on the International Day of Persons with Disabilities

A weary singing Rudolph and half a set of lights in garden(pruning error) and that is my decorations done.

HindleA wrote:A weary singing Rudolph and half a set of lights in garden(pruning error) and that is my decorations done.

You've got considerably more than I have (and intend to have).

Is Theresa May hoping for an early Christmas present tomorrow?

It takes me enough time to make the cards.Avoiding spending money is particularly hard at this time of year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pos ... 74795f5f79" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I’m a Depression historian. The GOP tax bill is straight out of 1929.

Republicans are again sprinting toward an economic cliff.

Sprinting towards cliff edges is all the Rage

“Mark subsequently found out he has to have a fitness to work telephone interview,” she wrote in an open letter which went viral on Facebook this year.

“I called the Universal Credit work coach to ask if she was aware he is terminally ill and has difficulty speaking as he has mouth cancer. She said she did, but said it still had to be done.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/u ... k-homepage" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Robert Myers‏
@RobMyers1968

FUCK YOU @GOP and all those who support you. I don't give a rats ass if people unfriend me, this is personal. Cutting my medicare, my SSI because I'm disabled due to no fault of my own. You're a bunch of corporate greedy fuckers who don't give a shit about the american people

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Seems bash the less-able is alive and well across in good ol US as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... -by-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


£300m mental health initiative for schools is inadequate, says Labour

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... nal-damage" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Finally, proof that Christmas songs really do your head in

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... on-cartoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Ben Jennings on Nigel Farage’s pension

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42216622" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

MP Nadine Dorries defends 'shared password' tweet

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -influence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


The Brexit ‘patriots’ care little for British history or influence
William Keegan

Theresa May to take charge of Brexit talks at crucial Brussels meetings


Last modified on Sunday 3 December 2017 21.30 GMT

Theresa May will take personal charge of Brexit negotiations as she visits Brussels for crucial meetings hoping to clinch an agreement on the Northern Ireland border issue, which has so far proved impossible.

I wonder if Damian Green reads anything into this?

Anyway - we're all saved!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rder-issue

Night night.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/17/opinions/ ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"The Brexit psychodrama is going exactly as expected"

So far, the Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU have been entirely predictable.
Despite the contemporary tendency, so aptly described by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman, to describe things that were obvious as "shocks" or "blows" to Britain, the Brexit talks have, to date, progressed pretty much as any long-term observer of European politics would have assumed they might.

So the West Indian blacks are being asked to leave this country, and the Irish are expected to be next.

Not a good time to be a dog.

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:So the West Indian blacks are being asked to leave this country, and the Irish are expected to be next.

Not a good time to be a dog.

Standard story heard from a few green brummies over the years - 'when dad/grandad first came here every lodging house had 'no dogs no blacks no irish' up in the window. He spent his first night in england sharing a kennel with a alsatian called winston'.

tinybgoat wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/17/opinions/ ... index.html
"The Brexit psychodrama is going exactly as expected"

So far, the Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU have been entirely predictable.
Despite the contemporary tendency, so aptly described by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman, to describe things that were obvious as "shocks" or "blows" to Britain, the Brexit talks have, to date, progressed pretty much as any long-term observer of European politics would have assumed they might.

The mouse is becoming less cocky as the steamroller approaches ?
The Chief Brexiteers will be incandescent when a transitional extra two years means paying even MORE membership fees, without some rights !

I checked out the last few articles by Stephen Bush, very good, particularly perhaps the one about "Labour drifting towards power " .

https://www.newstatesman.com/writers/stephen_bush" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I've given up predicting stuff after the last few years

Totally agree, but can't help myself. This is very speculative.

So one interesting thing to look for in the states as time passes will be what the mid-terms are looking like. I've read forecasts saying that the house is so gerrymandered that the dems could win nationally by five or six points, and even win state by state by a few ponts, but still not take control, but just imagine for a moment that it looks like they could do. (They could take control of the senate but it would be very hard - there are only 8 republican senators up this time. It's impossible for the dems to get to 60 (conviction number) without GOP senators flipping). (The GOP have precedent here - the house impeached Clinton but the democrats in the senate stood by him and he wasn't convicted and served out his term).

Anyway... if it gets closer and closer to the white house then at some point the white house and the GOP are going to have to make a decision - because Trump can rely on the naked partisanship of the GOP in congress to keep him safe for the time being, but could be impeached by a democrat house - and if he was the senate might feel they need to cut their losses - and if there was a dem house and the Pres and VP both fell (and the seth abramson stuff suggests this could happen) then next in line is the house speaker. At the moment that is Paul Ryan. If the Dem's were to take congress it would probably be Nancy Pelosi.

So if things look like they could be getting tight, then either watch the arrogant shit accept it and go (can't see it) OR watch Pence pay the price so they can have a succession in place who won't get cuffed immediately if Trump is forced out.

Adam -- a footnote on the gerrymandering--

redrawing constituency boundaries in the UK is controversial, not easily resolved technically, AT ALL, but the past few years of "redistricting" in the US have been completely disgraceful.

The mouse is becoming less cocky as the steamroller approaches ?

Nice phrase. For some reason (maybe Anatoly/ Adam & not making predictions) Nostradamus sprung to mind.
Or maybe Warren Buffett.