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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 7:10 am 
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Morning all.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 8:01 am 
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Corbyn confident

https://graziadaily.co.uk/life/in-the-n ... exclusive/


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 8:27 am 
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I have to admit to not being a regular reader of Grazia,
but found this, earlier article equally illuminating:
https://graziadaily.co.uk/fashion/news/ ... ion-style/

Out of interest, if Jeremy does succeed and 'seize the keys to number 10', does anyone know if the prime minister literally possesses a front door key, or is it just opened/shut by Downing Street Staff?)


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 9:34 am 
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SpinningHugo wrote:


Good morning

hardly the most in-depth article but then it doesn't pretend to be

More illuminating than the intention behind the post - do you think he should be confident or not?


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 9:41 am 
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https://m.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1966034890387913
Quote:
..whenever I talk to Eurocrats about this concept for our trading future with the EU, they make a number of simple but crushing points. The first and most important is that they say that it would be fiendishly difficult to capture this idea of a journey towards divergence into a free-trade treaty. The point is that most free trade deals, including the one that the UK takes as the model for what it wants - Canada's with the EU, called CETA - works precisely because both parties talk the language of wanting to see gradual convergence of rules and regulations, not divergence.

Peston on why Cake plus plus,(aka ceta plus plus plus) cabinet's likely to agree on, is unlikely to be accepted by eu.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 9:52 am 
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tinybgoat wrote:
Out of interest, if Jeremy does succeed and 'seize the keys to number 10', does anyone know if the prime minister literally possesses a front door key, or is it just opened/shut by Downing Street Staff?)


It can't be opened from the outside so if there are keys, they must be purely ceremonial.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 9:56 am 
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https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteri ... 1340418048
Nick Gutteridge on why transition period is stupid & we should have just asked for article 50 period to be extended.
(link taken from politico playbook https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/lond ... r-torpedo/)


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:16 am 
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tinybgoat wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/942806181340418048
Nick Gutteridge on why transition period is stupid & we should have just asked for article 50 period to be extended.
(link taken from politico playbook https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/lond ... r-torpedo/)


While I agree an extension to the article 50 process would be sensible, I'd imagine a transition period would be necessary as well. They serve different roles. An extension would allow more time to negotiate our new relationship and prepare alternatives to things like Eurotom. It would only be when the new relationship has been formally agreed that we would be in a position to start putting hard infrastructure in place at ports etc and thus a transition period would also be needed. Assuming May is to pursue a hard Brexit, of course. A soft Brexit may not require a formal transition period I suppose.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:30 am 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:


Good morning

hardly the most in-depth article but then it doesn't pretend to be

More illuminating than the intention behind the post - do you think he should be confident or not?


I'd be surprised to see Tory MPs actively voting for another election in 2018 while they remain in such a vulnerable position.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:36 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:


Good morning

hardly the most in-depth article but then it doesn't pretend to be

More illuminating than the intention behind the post - do you think he should be confident or not?


I'd be surprised to see Tory MPs actively voting for another election in 2018 while they remain in such a vulnerable position.


So would I but then we didn't expect one in 2017 either and Corbyn has to keep putting on the pressure to try and get it to happen

The Tories will be in power until 2022 according to the law and so will reap the benefits of the nice easy trade negotiations that deliver a successful Brexit....or not

May has been going around pretending all the withdrawal has been agreed because she signed that document in December - the devil is in the detail of that and I am just going to sit back and watch if she can deliver that in a full agreement

I will stick my neck out and say she can't


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:38 am 
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Yeah, I'm not exactly convinced that there will be another GE next year. But you never know these days :D


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:43 am 
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So, this transition period...

We still go off the cliff - but float down gently ?

..and end up broken on the same rocks.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:43 am 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:


Good morning

hardly the most in-depth article but then it doesn't pretend to be

More illuminating than the intention behind the post - do you think he should be confident or not?


Good Morning.

Grazia - Papzia........

I genuinely don't think the medium matters, It's hardly Vogue 21/03/2017 admittedly, but IF he were elected Prime Minister I'm sure he could fit them in and discuss his at home TV watching habits :D :D

As we seem to be going down the road of it becoming a 'presidential' type contest (Where USA leads we follow) I'm sure Late Night TV show interviews will be next. It seemed to work for these guys





The Clinton one was '92 four years after his 1988 'disastrous' overrunning key note speech and Bush's Letterman was 2000. Both of these were hardly heavyweight medium yet they seemed to help both candidates.

(Am praying I followed the 'How to embed YouTube Videos' instructional - Fingers Crossed :D :D )


Last edited by discordantharmony on Tue 19 Dec, 2017 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:44 am 
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The Guardian report that Barnier is specifically excluding the idea of a separate deal for the City is for me highly significant.

The Hard Brexiteers are now firmly in the wilderness, with minimal financial backing.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:48 am 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
The Guardian report that Barnier is specifically excluding the idea of a separate deal for the City is for me highly significant.

The Hard Brexiteers are now firmly in the wilderness, with minimal financial backing.


Except for newspaper tycoons, of course.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 10:49 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
tinybgoat wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/942806181340418048
Nick Gutteridge on why transition period is stupid & we should have just asked for article 50 period to be extended.
(link taken from politico playbook https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/lond ... r-torpedo/)


While I agree an extension to the article 50 process would be sensible, I'd imagine a transition period would be necessary as well. They serve different roles. An extension would allow more time to negotiate our new relationship and prepare alternatives to things like Eurotom. It would only be when the new relationship has been formally agreed that we would be in a position to start putting hard infrastructure in place at ports etc and thus a transition period would also be needed. Assuming May is to pursue a hard Brexit, of course. A soft Brexit may not require a formal transition period I suppose.

I agree, but also still don't see (from wording of art.50) why (with agreement) exit date can't just be set to an arbitrary date in the future, allowing time for infrastructure to be setup. Transition period would still be useful for hard brexit, to allow negotiating trade deals, though.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 11:00 am 
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SpinningHugo wrote:


Quote:
I ask a couple of members of his team – which, interestingly, is mostly female – whether he is always so equable and friendly.

They say this is the real deal and he is great fun to work with. Then they add, almost absent-mindedly, that he’s forever going off on tangents, telling long stories; that they are constantly having to say, ‘Jeremy! Focus!’ when they need to discuss work with him. Is Corbyn likeable? Yes, definitely. But is he statesmanlike? The jury is still out on that.


Sting in the tail?


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 11:12 am 
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Lost Soul wrote:
So, this transition period...

We still go off the cliff - but float down gently ?

..and end up broken on the same rocks.


I think the point of a transition period is that it would only be started once it has been agreed what we are transitioning to, so no, I don't think there'll be a cliff edge at the end of one. Unfortunately I'm not confident the government is capable of agreeing one. We only have a year to do so. If we fail we can decide to give up and ask to stay in, or we can ask to extend the article 50 process (which could prove to just delay the cliff edge or may provide the time necessary to do Brexit properly) or, if we do neither of these things, we'll crash out with no deal in March 2019.

That's the state of play as far as I understand it. So after the passage (or not) of the Withdrawal Bill, the next big moment will come in Autumn next year when we discover whether a deal is ready to be presented to the various Parliaments or not. If not we could be looking at the mother of all showdowns between the Eurosceptic and Europhile wings of the Tory party over what to do next - crash out or play for more time.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 11:31 am 
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frog222 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:


Quote:
I ask a couple of members of his team – which, interestingly, is mostly female – whether he is always so equable and friendly.

They say this is the real deal and he is great fun to work with. Then they add, almost absent-mindedly, that he’s forever going off on tangents, telling long stories; that they are constantly having to say, ‘Jeremy! Focus!’ when they need to discuss work with him. Is Corbyn likeable? Yes, definitely. But is he statesmanlike? The jury is still out on that.


Sting in the tail?


A fair question to ask but one that is more pertinently posed to our useless PM and her foreign minister

Compared to those two I have few concerns - and don't get me started on Cameron (shoHugo was sure he was 'eminently suited to the job')

All I want to point out who looked the most statesmanlike the day after Grenfell House - the person who spent time talking to victims and first responders in a dignified and empathetic way or the one that hid away from any member of the great unwashed?


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:09 pm 
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https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politic ... 22986.html
"Brexit latest: Theresa May gives way on bid to fix Brexit date in law to avoid second Commons defeat"
Quote:
In a face-saving measure, No 10 will not withdraw its vote to set the date, but will instead agree to a set of amendments tabled by former Cabinet minister Sir Oliver Letwin that will effectively cancel it out.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:39 pm 
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Over at Politics Live, Guardian (timeline 11.54), there's a diagram\visual representation of how, as a consquence of the UK's "red lines", the Canada deal is considered by the EU to be the only option.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:39 pm 
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Good morfternoon.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:49 pm 
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PF's live feed

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/stat ... 20/photo/1

just playing

Image


Last edited by frog222 on Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:51 pm 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
frog222 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:


Quote:
I ask a couple of members of his team – which, interestingly, is mostly female – whether he is always so equable and friendly.

They say this is the real deal and he is great fun to work with. Then they add, almost absent-mindedly, that he’s forever going off on tangents, telling long stories; that they are constantly having to say, ‘Jeremy! Focus!’ when they need to discuss work with him. Is Corbyn likeable? Yes, definitely. But is he statesmanlike? The jury is still out on that.


Sting in the tail?


A fair question to ask but one that is more pertinently posed to our useless PM and her foreign minister

Compared to those two I have few concerns - and don't get me started on Cameron (shoHugo was sure he was 'eminently suited to the job')

All I want to point out who looked the most statesmanlike the day after Grenfell House - the person who spent time talking to victims and first responders in a dignified and empathetic way or the one that hid away from any member of the great unwashed?


And what does "statesmanlike" mean anyway?? Often it just seems to mean "looking/sounding the part". Which is how we got Cameron.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 12:58 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
Lost Soul wrote:
So, this transition period...

We still go off the cliff - but float down gently ?

..and end up broken on the same rocks.


I think the point of a transition period is that it would only be started once it has been agreed what we are transitioning to, so no, I don't think there'll be a cliff edge at the end of one. Unfortunately I'm not confident the government is capable of agreeing one. We only have a year to do so. If we fail we can decide to give up and ask to stay in, or we can ask to extend the article 50 process (which could prove to just delay the cliff edge or may provide the time necessary to do Brexit properly) or, if we do neither of these things, we'll crash out with no deal in March 2019.

That's the state of play as far as I understand it. So after the passage (or not) of the Withdrawal Bill, the next big moment will come in Autumn next year when we discover whether a deal is ready to be presented to the various Parliaments or not. If not we could be looking at the mother of all showdowns between the Eurosceptic and Europhile wings of the Tory party over what to do next - crash out or play for more time.


We've had builders in - I could see them struggling so offered the use of my spirit levels...and a few other fundamental tools for the job.
Window fitters - without a mitre saw, used mine...

This feels a lot like that. If they aren't equipped to do the job, they shouldn't even try, because they will at best botch it , or worse, mess it up so badly that no one will be able to put it right.

Or is that the plan ?


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:05 pm 
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'And what does "statesmanlike" mean anyway?? Often it just seems to mean "looking/sounding the part". Which is how we got Cameron.'

Gravitas, competence and a calm sure hand ( not to be confused with confidence - which is what Cameron has - like a boy racer has it )


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:05 pm 
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"AnatolyKasparov"]
howsillyofme1 wrote:
frog222 wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:


Quote:
I ask a couple of members of his team – which, interestingly, is mostly female – whether he is always so equable and friendly.

They say this is the real deal and he is great fun to work with. Then they add, almost absent-mindedly, that he’s forever going off on tangents, telling long stories; that they are constantly having to say, ‘Jeremy! Focus!’ when they need to discuss work with him. Is Corbyn likeable? Yes, definitely. But is he statesmanlike? The jury is still out on that.


Sting in the tail?


A fair question to ask but one that is more pertinently posed to our useless PM and her foreign minister

Compared to those two I have few concerns - and don't get me started on Cameron (shoHugo was sure he was 'eminently suited to the job')

All I want to point out who looked the most statesmanlike the day after Grenfell House - the person who spent time talking to victims and first responders in a dignified and empathetic way or the one that hid away from any member of the great unwashed?


And what does "statesmanlike" mean anyway?? Often it just seems to mean "looking/sounding the part". Which is how we got Cameron.
-------------------------------------------------

AK Pretty well what I wanted to say but was busy before . (Shades of the geeky look and bacon sandwich/ looking "" primeministerial"" ...)

Touchy-feely normal human empathy is all very well, but it's not geopolitics or implementable economic reform either !

If i had a vote which I don't because of the 15year rule, I'd vote Corbyn -- but without great enthusiasm as he seems woolly to me , so very much like those other student politicians of that generation who I knew. I may be wrong, but want to know--- has JC ever served on a HoC committee , those people who put work in ?


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:07 pm 
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Pretty sure that JC has served on HoC committees, yes. Though I leave it to somebody else to provide the details......


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:08 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
frog222 wrote:

Sting in the tail?


A fair question to ask but one that is more pertinently posed to our useless PM and her foreign minister

Compared to those two I have few concerns - and don't get me started on Cameron (shoHugo was sure he was 'eminently suited to the job')

All I want to point out who looked the most statesmanlike the day after Grenfell House - the person who spent time talking to victims and first responders in a dignified and empathetic way or the one that hid away from any member of the great unwashed?


And what does "statesmanlike" mean anyway?? Often it just seems to mean "looking/sounding the part". Which is how we got Cameron.


You need the kind of authority that comes from earning the respect of your peers in order to appear statesmanlike, you need to have actually achieved something from a position of power or influence (think Angela Merkel/Barack Obama/Nicholas Sarkozy). Something Cameron never really achieved in my opinion. It's also why leaders of the opposition can never appear statesmanlike - it's something that derives from a position of power and leadership, not a qualification for them.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:19 pm 
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Justice Committee May 2011 - Mar 2015
London Regional Select Committee Dec 2009 - May 2010
Social Security Apr 1992 - Mar 1997

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:28 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Pretty sure that JC has served on HoC committees, yes. Though I leave it to somebody else to provide the details......


A couple. Justice select committee during the Coalition years. I think it pertinent, though, that of his peers, Ken Livingstone was the one who sought positions of real power and influence on the GLC and as London Mayor, while Corbyn opted more for supportive campaign and lobbying roles. I rather doubt he'd match Ken's dynamism in office, to be frank.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:40 pm 
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I wonder.

One of the reasons why I was reluctant to back Corbyn originally in 2015 was that it was fairly obvious he didn't want to be PM, and indeed was only reluctantly standing for leader (in his own words, he was doing it mainly because it was "his turn" from Labour's leading Campaign Groupers)

Has that all changed now? There are some indications it may have, though I remain not totally convinced he will still be there if this parliament runs its full course.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:46 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
I wonder.

One of the reasons why I was reluctant to back Corbyn originally in 2015 was that it was fairly obvious he didn't want to be PM, and indeed was only reluctantly standing for leader (in his own words, he was doing it mainly because it was "his turn" from Labour's leading Campaign Groupers)

Has that all changed now? There are some indications it may have, though I remain not totally convinced he will still be there if this parliament runs its full course.


Which I assume is what Kevin McGuire meant when he tweeted he didn't think Corbyn would be PM because he didn't believe there would be an election in the next couple of years. He could well be right.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 1:58 pm 
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Reply to frog

On mobile and so cannot mess around with quote limit

How can we tell if someone can do what you say unless given the opportunity and we are dependent on the media to a certain extent

It is a bit chicken and egg

Empathy may not be the be and end all but is it statemanlike to be scared of the public?


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 2:00 pm 
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Quote:

3m ago 13:56
Cabinet agrees to push ahead with demands for bespoke Brexit deal (Politics Live, Guardian)


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 2:23 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rty-groups


Scottish government welfare plans flawed, say anti-poverty groups
Organisations ‘disappointed’ by lack of clarity and no pledge to uprate payments in bill to enact newly devolved powers

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 2:25 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
Quote:

3m ago 13:56
Cabinet agrees to push ahead with demands for bespoke Brexit deal (Politics Live, Guardian)


Ah well, good luck with that.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 2:56 pm 
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If you don't have FoM, then it's going to be "bespoke" all right. Though they should remember that Switzerland's bespoke arrangement is very unpopular.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 2:59 pm 
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HindleA wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/19/scottish-government-devolved-welfare-plans-anti-poverty-groups


Scottish government welfare plans flawed, say anti-poverty groups
Organisations ‘disappointed’ by lack of clarity and no pledge to uprate payments in bill to enact newly devolved powers


Wait till they get the "economic levers", it'll all be brilliant then.

The Tories have been pretty smart in transferring these powers.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 3:15 pm 
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Tubby Isaacs wrote:
If you don't have FoM, then it's going to be "bespoke" all right. Though they should remember that Switzerland's bespoke arrangement is very unpopular.


Switzerland has free movement and participates in single market to a great extent via the bilaterals

Attempts to go it alone on limiting work permits and Croatiansparticularly was hammered by the EU pretty rapidly

The EU will not accept another Swiss arrangement easily as it is a pain to manage although made easier by the fact that the Swiss political world tends not to change as much as the bipolar UK one does


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 3:33 pm 
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Just when I thought we couldn't disappoint me any more than we already do:

Quote:
Wealthy Bristol residents cause uproar by installing 'anti-bird spikes' to stop droppings hitting expensive cars
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 17786.html

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 3:47 pm 
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"I wouldn't waste my crap on them"


Lenny

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Last edited by HindleA on Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 3:51 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Quote:

3m ago 13:56
Cabinet agrees to push ahead with demands for bespoke Brexit deal (Politics Live, Guardian)


Ah well, good luck with that.


Wouldn't it be great if we had an opposition opposing this.

But we don't.


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:03 pm 
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https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/la ... ence-53646


Labour launches social housing review call for evidence

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:07 pm 
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Quote:
Wouldn't it be great if we had an opposition opposing this.

But we don't.[


Opposing a deal?

Wouldn't it be great if you posted something interesting?

But you don't.

Anyway in one sense May is right - whatever the UK gets is likely to be more or less bespoke as the other options are all bespoke

Switzerland is different from Norway which is different from Canada etc

There are people here who say we should be fully participative in the SM/CU as now. That may be the right position to take economically but politically it is a minefield and I personally do not think that, in all senses, being inextricably tied to the EU but having no say would be able to hold for long.

A deal like that would be bespoke as no other country would have one the same.....

What the UK will not be able to do though is to have some aspects of the SM and not others....I think that is clear. So for a good deal we will need to accept something that meets the requirements of FoM (again our solution could be bespoke as almost every other country's are

The problem isn't the word 'bespoke' it is the fact that the Tories seems to have no clue at all how to make this work and all they say is contradictory - not good when the are negotiating and we only have 10 months or so to agree the withdrawal agreement


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:14 pm 
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Hugo,

This board is essentially 100% remain so you do little of value here for the cause apart from annoying some of us to a great extent with your uninformative little posts

I mentioned to you that UKPR has become a Brexit board recently with some people who make the intellectual case for leaving - as you are so confident of your position and are clearly of the view you are an intellectual powerhouse, why don't you go over there and make some arguments to these people. In the end they are the people that need convincing to change their minds

Why don't you give us a break and go over there to try and do something useful for the cause?

I will even send you the link to the latest thread....will await you challenging Colin and Trevor Warne (plus others) with interest

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archi ... 4#comments

Don't worry Tubby and others such as Willow are prepared to argue the 'more Remainer' side more than adequately with far more ability to have an interesting debate so you don't need to worry about everyone turning into a rapid 'Corbynite' or 'Lexiter' anytime soon


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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:23 pm 
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https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/cou ... settlement


Councils responds to Local Government Finance Settlement

Responding to the provisional Local Government Finance Settlement published today, Lord Porter, Chairman of the Local Government Association, said:

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:26 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... dApp_Tweet



Martin Rowson on the progress of Brexit under Theresa May

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:36 pm 
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https://kittysjones.wordpress.com/2017/ ... or-people/


"It’s David Gauke and the government that need to change their behaviours"

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PostPosted: Tue 19 Dec, 2017 4:54 pm 
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http://www.cqc.org.uk/publications/them ... re-systems


Our reviews of local health and social care systems


Local system reviews interim report

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