FlyTheNest

A haven
It is currently Sun 21 Jan, 2018 4:31 pm

All times are UTC


Forum rules


Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.



Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 142 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 8:58 am 
Online
Site Admin

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 6:27 pm
Posts: 5024
Has thanked: 1580 times
Been thanked: 8304 times
Morning!

Tony Blair :roll:


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 9:24 am 
Offline
Backbencher

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 7:12 pm
Posts: 48
Has thanked: 76 times
Been thanked: 102 times
Morning Paul.

Tony Blair and The White House hey, who would've thought it.

That was what you meant wasn't it :D :D


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 9:28 am 
Online
Site Admin

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 6:27 pm
Posts: 5024
Has thanked: 1580 times
Been thanked: 8304 times
discordantharmony wrote:
Morning Paul.

Tony Blair and The White House hey, who would've thought it.

That was what you meant wasn't it :D :D


:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 9:29 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 11:22 am
Posts: 13651
Has thanked: 76025 times
Been thanked: 12985 times
Good-morning, everyone


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 9:40 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
My lord, Rentoul has it right..

Quote:
High fives all round in No 10 as Blair reinforcing case for Brexit dominates media cycle instead of NHS


(edit for a very necessary comma)

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 9:47 am 
Offline
Backbencher

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 7:12 pm
Posts: 48
Has thanked: 76 times
Been thanked: 102 times
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Totally agree - Genuinely believe that the softly softly approach by Labour up till now has worked far better than that 15 minute interview this morning. But hey ho, what do I know........


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 9:52 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
Tony Blair said a few things which are really rather true:

Quote:
Q: No one thinks we will not be able to recruit EU nurses after Brexit.

Blair says EU workers are leaving.

He says the NHS is in a terrible state. But the government does not have the bandwidth to deal with it, he says.


And:
Quote:
You are making it sound as if the metropolitan elite is against them.

Blair says there are elites and ordinary people on both sides. He says 17m people voted to leave, but 16m people voted to remain. Those 16m aren’t all elite.


I can't help but notice that his intervention has drawn an awful lot of agitated response from hard Brexit ideologues. They clearly don't want the idea of giving the electorate a final say on Brexit policy gaining traction.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:13 am 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 11:18 am
Posts: 9373
Has thanked: 18113 times
Been thanked: 16809 times
Good morfternoon.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:13 am 
Online
Chancellor

Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 9:51 am
Posts: 1964
Has thanked: 4938 times
Been thanked: 4737 times
Quote:
the NHS is in a terrible state. But the government does not have the bandwidth to deal with it, he says.

That may be true, but I'm not sure it's relevant. Does anyone actually think the govt would be doing anything to improve the NHS if it wasn't for brexit?

_________________
One world, like it or not - John Martyn


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:15 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
discordantharmony wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Totally agree - Genuinely believe that the softly softly approach by Labour up till now has worked far better than that 15 minute interview this morning. But hey ho, what do I know........


I'm sure it has worked far better in terms of holding together Labour support than openly opposing leaving the single market would have done, but I don't think it has been effective in exposing the cliff edge Eurosceptics are leading us over. Genuine concerns about negative impacts of Brexit are being suppressed with shrieks of "elites" and of being "undemocratic". It's a shame it had to be Blair to point out that 16m people can't all be "elites" and that democracy is an ongoing process, not a one off event, but I'd rather have him say it than no one say it at all.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:17 am 
Online
Chancellor

Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 9:51 am
Posts: 1964
Has thanked: 4938 times
Been thanked: 4737 times
I think this makes it official, the tories really are nearly extinct, as a party.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... tudy-finds
Quote:
The biggest ever polling of party members’ opinions shows that Tories are half as likely to support gay marriage as members of Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP and significantly more supportive of the death penalty, obedience to authority and censorship of the media “to uphold moral standards”.

Quote:
on the economy there is what the authors describe as “a gulf between the Tory grassroots and the rest”: just 11% of Conservative members agree that austerity has been taken too far, against 98% for Labour, 93% in the SNP and 75% among Lib Dems.

These people elect the party leader.

_________________
One world, like it or not - John Martyn


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:22 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 11:22 am
Posts: 13651
Has thanked: 76025 times
Been thanked: 12985 times
There's justifiable reasons Blair isn't liked and maybe he can do no better than keep the hell quiet. I get a sinking feeling when I see Blair in the news. I dread he'll piss off everyone, everywhere, regardless of wise or unwise contributions. Me? I don't mind Tony Blair so much.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:25 am 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
Willow904 wrote:
discordantharmony wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Totally agree - Genuinely believe that the softly softly approach by Labour up till now has worked far better than that 15 minute interview this morning. But hey ho, what do I know........


I'm sure it has worked far better in terms of holding together Labour support than openly opposing leaving the single market would have done, but I don't think it has been effective in exposing the cliff edge Eurosceptics are leading us over. Genuine concerns about negative impacts of Brexit are being suppressed with shrieks of "elites" and of being "undemocratic". It's a shame it had to be Blair to point out that 16m people can't all be "elites" and that democracy is an ongoing process, not a one off event, but I'd rather have him say it than no one say it at all.


""16m people can't all be "elites" and that democracy is an ongoing process, not a one off event, but I'd rather have him say it than no one say it at all.""


The political wibbling is that the remainers say they respect the result of the ref, but do not really mean it !


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:26 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 11:22 am
Posts: 13651
Has thanked: 76025 times
Been thanked: 12985 times
gilsey wrote:
I think this makes it official, the tories really are nearly extinct, as a party.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... tudy-finds
Quote:
The biggest ever polling of party members’ opinions shows that Tories are half as likely to support gay marriage as members of Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP and significantly more supportive of the death penalty, obedience to authority and censorship of the media “to uphold moral standards”.
Quote:
on the economy there is what the authors describe as “a gulf between the Tory grassroots and the rest”: just 11% of Conservative members agree that austerity has been taken too far, against 98% for Labour, 93% in the SNP and 75% among Lib Dems.
These people elect the party leader.
I bet Tory membership doesn't hit six digits. Tories have more money than god though. Buys a lot of advertising.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:35 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
gilsey wrote:
Quote:
the NHS is in a terrible state. But the government does not have the bandwidth to deal with it, he says.

That may be true, but I'm not sure it's relevant. Does anyone actually think the govt would be doing anything to improve the NHS if it wasn't for brexit?


Under Ed Miliband Labour opposed holding an EU referendum at this time because we are still struggling to recover from the financial crisis. The Tories decided to hold a referendum anyway and whether they want to or not, it does hamper their ability to deal with the NHS and other domestic issues. I think their choice to create our current existential crisis over the EU is highly relevant. Before the referendum the EU wasn't an important issue for most voters. The NHS was. The Tories have focused on the wrong issue and yet they're not really being punished for that and they should be.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:45 am 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
Unfortunately most MP's voted for the ref . No super-majority for if it was binding .


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:46 am 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
HoC as a whole bungled it .


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:50 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
Willow904 wrote:
gilsey wrote:
Quote:
the NHS is in a terrible state. But the government does not have the bandwidth to deal with it, he says.

That may be true, but I'm not sure it's relevant. Does anyone actually think the govt would be doing anything to improve the NHS if it wasn't for brexit?


Under Ed Miliband Labour opposed holding an EU referendum at this time because we are still struggling to recover from the financial crisis. The Tories decided to hold a referendum anyway and whether they want to or not, it does hamper their ability to deal with the NHS and other domestic issues. I think their choice to create our current existential crisis over the EU is highly relevant. Before the referendum the EU wasn't an important issue for most voters. The NHS was. The Tories have focused on the wrong issue and yet they're not really being punished for that and they should be.


The other argument is that helping to deliver a cliff-edge crisis in the NHS is one of the main motivations of those behind the leave campaign and this is all just business as usual for them.

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:52 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
frog222 wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
discordantharmony wrote:

Totally agree - Genuinely believe that the softly softly approach by Labour up till now has worked far better than that 15 minute interview this morning. But hey ho, what do I know........


I'm sure it has worked far better in terms of holding together Labour support than openly opposing leaving the single market would have done, but I don't think it has been effective in exposing the cliff edge Eurosceptics are leading us over. Genuine concerns about negative impacts of Brexit are being suppressed with shrieks of "elites" and of being "undemocratic". It's a shame it had to be Blair to point out that 16m people can't all be "elites" and that democracy is an ongoing process, not a one off event, but I'd rather have him say it than no one say it at all.


""16m people can't all be "elites" and that democracy is an ongoing process, not a one off event, but I'd rather have him say it than no one say it at all.""


The political wibbling is that the remainers say they respect the result of the ref, but do not really mean it !


Yes, that is certainly true and a fair criticism. I personally feel the referendum result was very close, though, and that also should be respected. May actually asked for a mandate for her vision of Brexit at the election and didn't get it. For Brexit to go ahead under the Tories under such circumstances is on the very edge of what can be termed "democratic". We're adrift with no obvious consensus or democratic mandate for what happens next.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:59 am 
Online
Site Admin

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 6:27 pm
Posts: 5024
Has thanked: 1580 times
Been thanked: 8304 times
FWIW I would advocate talking of avoiding Brexit rather than stopping it.

This for me leaves room for a bit of movement from the EU (that Hugo will ridicule me for even suggesting) and a relatively comfortable landing with the credibility of most leavers and remainers in tact.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 10:59 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
Willow904 wrote:
Yes, that is certainly true and a fair criticism. I personally feel the referendum result was very close, though, and that also should be respected. May actually asked for a mandate for her vision of Brexit at the election and didn't get it. For Brexit to go ahead under the Tories under such circumstances is on the very edge of what can be termed "democratic". We're adrift with no obvious consensus or democratic mandate for what happens next.


I completely agree with this, but you're left with relying on the decency and civil responsibility of the conservative party to respect these things. This is why I can't see any way there will be an election before 2022 - I won't believe that any tory 'rebels' will vote to give Labour another shot at a general election unless it actually happens.

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:03 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
FWIW I would advocate talking of avoiding Brexit rather than stopping it.

This for me leaves room for a bit of movement from the EU (that Hugo will ridicule me for even suggesting) and a relatively comfortable landing with the credibility of most leavers and remainers in tact.


In many ways the question is whether May will break the conservative party by doing what should be the inevitable and ending up in or all but in the single market and/or customs union, or break the country by leaving with no or a very limited deal. I'm not confident that she'd chose to break the conservative party.

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:05 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
frog222 wrote:
HoC as a whole bungled it .


Apart from the SNP.

And one Labour MP.

I've lost a lot of trust in Labour as a whole as a result. Not constructive I know, can't turn back the clock etc etc but there it is.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:08 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
It's tempting to think about planning a referendum for a widely hitting supertax on extraordinary wealth hypothicated to fund specific aspects of the NHS - win the referendum and that would be it, the decision has been made, it's the will of the people and it has to stay. Forever.

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:10 am 
Online
Chancellor

Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 9:51 am
Posts: 1964
Has thanked: 4938 times
Been thanked: 4737 times
adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
FWIW I would advocate talking of avoiding Brexit rather than stopping it.

This for me leaves room for a bit of movement from the EU (that Hugo will ridicule me for even suggesting) and a relatively comfortable landing with the credibility of most leavers and remainers in tact.


In many ways the question is whether May will break the conservative party by doing what should be the inevitable and ending up in or all but in the single market and/or customs union, or break the country by leaving with no or a very limited deal. I'm not confident that she'd chose to break the conservative party.

Can anyone tell me why the conservative party inspires such faith from May that she will risk her own mental and physical health for the cause, quite apart from failing to put the country first?

_________________
One world, like it or not - John Martyn


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:10 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
From Blair's article quoted in the graun's daily politics

Quote:
Make Brexit the Tory Brexit.

Make them own it 100%.

Show people why Brexit isn’t and never was the answer.

Open up the dialogue with European leaders about reforming Europe, a dialogue they’re more than willing to have now because they realise Brexit also damages Europe economically and politically.

At every PMQs nail each myth of the Brexit campaign, say why the Tory divisions are weakening our country - something only credible if we are opposed to Brexit not advocating a different Brexit, and challenge the whole farce head on of a Prime Minister leading our nation in a direction which even today she can’t bring herself to say she would vote for.


All very good indeed - but why wait until now to make such a loud intervention.

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:12 am 
Offline
Secretary of State

Joined: Wed 27 Aug, 2014 8:15 pm
Posts: 1322
Has thanked: 93 times
Been thanked: 2617 times
gilsey wrote:
adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
FWIW I would advocate talking of avoiding Brexit rather than stopping it.

This for me leaves room for a bit of movement from the EU (that Hugo will ridicule me for even suggesting) and a relatively comfortable landing with the credibility of most leavers and remainers in tact.


In many ways the question is whether May will break the conservative party by doing what should be the inevitable and ending up in or all but in the single market and/or customs union, or break the country by leaving with no or a very limited deal. I'm not confident that she'd chose to break the conservative party.

Can anyone tell me why the conservative party inspires such faith from May that she will risk her own mental and physical health for the cause, quite apart from failing to put the country first?


They're in power, they're very good at exercising power when they manage to cling to it and they are genuinely appalled at the thought of any Labour government, but especially a Corbyn and McDonnell led Labour government, coming to power in their place.

_________________
my barking contribution


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:14 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
Yes, that is certainly true and a fair criticism. I personally feel the referendum result was very close, though, and that also should be respected. May actually asked for a mandate for her vision of Brexit at the election and didn't get it. For Brexit to go ahead under the Tories under such circumstances is on the very edge of what can be termed "democratic". We're adrift with no obvious consensus or democratic mandate for what happens next.


I completely agree with this, but you're left with relying on the decency and civil responsibility of the conservative party to respect these things. This is why I can't see any way there will be an election before 2022 - I won't believe that any tory 'rebels' will vote to give Labour another shot at a general election unless it actually happens.


True. I don't think pushing for a further referendum or election would be successful. I'm just making the point that those asking for it aren't being anti-democratic.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:17 am 
Online
Chancellor

Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 9:51 am
Posts: 1964
Has thanked: 4938 times
Been thanked: 4737 times
Willow904 wrote:
gilsey wrote:
Quote:
the NHS is in a terrible state. But the government does not have the bandwidth to deal with it, he says.

That may be true, but I'm not sure it's relevant. Does anyone actually think the govt would be doing anything to improve the NHS if it wasn't for brexit?


Under Ed Miliband Labour opposed holding an EU referendum at this time because we are still struggling to recover from the financial crisis. The Tories decided to hold a referendum anyway and whether they want to or not, it does hamper their ability to deal with the NHS and other domestic issues. I think their choice to create our current existential crisis over the EU is highly relevant. Before the referendum the EU wasn't an important issue for most voters. The NHS was. The Tories have focused on the wrong issue and yet they're not really being punished for that and they should be.

I think that brexit doesn't hamper their ability to deal with the NHS because they don't want to anyway. Brexit may be distracting other people from the NHS problems but for the tories it's good cover, ditto for UC.

Spending on the NHS is good for the economy in the short and long term, the financial crisis was irrelevant to it, as Brown and Darling understood. We don't even need to raise taxes for it if we don't want to, it would generate revenues for the Treasury.
Brexit is similarly irrelevant, as McDonnell understands.

_________________
One world, like it or not - John Martyn


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:30 am 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:26 pm
Posts: 6785
Has thanked: 678 times
Been thanked: 15003 times
Somebody said on Twitter re the referendum being a close run thing - "yes it was, but so was the battle of Waterloo, there weren't many demands for that to be run again" ;)

(a facetious quip yes, but with a kernel of truth)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:32 am 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:18 pm
Posts: 6677
Has thanked: 4096 times
Been thanked: 15495 times
Morning all.

Toby Young’s new job ‘will undermine’ efforts to tackle sexism in schools

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/toby-youngs-new-job-will-undermine-efforts-to-tackle-sexism-in-schools/

Quote:
The leaders of the National Education Union have written to the education secretary Justine Greening over “sexist and homophobic” comments made by New Schools Network boss Toby Young.

Dr Mary Bousted and Kevin Courtney, the union’s joint general secretaries, have warned in a letter sent today that Young’s appointment to the board of the new universities regulator risks undermining the “vital work” done by the government to tackle sexism in schools.


Well quite.

I really have no idea why there are people still defending him - although most of them seem to be his mates or chums of Gove.

_________________
FTN's supplier of tedious, pedantic education policy waffle; and Pedant-in-Chief generally.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:36 am 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Somebody said on Twitter re the referendum being a close run thing - "yes it was, but so was the battle of Waterloo, there weren't many demands for that to be run again" ;)

(a facetious quip yes, but with a kernel of truth)

Otoh we do "run elections again" . For the mom ! :-)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:38 am 
Online
Speaker of the House

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 10:34 am
Posts: 2908
Has thanked: 815 times
Been thanked: 5177 times
Good afternoon

Poor interview by Blair as he is unable to answer the question about how we actually go about avoid Brexit (copyright Paul) - just some mumbling about another referendum and Parliament

I said yesterday that the soft Brexit desired (ie CU and SM as now) is not politically sustainable in my view as it would lead to no difference from the status quo apart from us having no say. I, myself, would not support that type of deal - and it would be unstable from the moment of signing

In that case the only option is to avoid Brexit completely but I have not yet seen any convincing argument from Remainers on how to do that - a second referendum would have all the weaknesses of the first (would we make it a super-majority to prevent calls for a 'best of 3'?) and Parliamentary defeat would be constitutionally fine but politically it cannot be delivered and it would cause a lot of damage to the trust between voters and politicians.

The other issue is that I do not believe Brexit is the biggest acute problem we have - that is the policies of this Tory Government. Brexit is not to blame for lack of productivity growth, or the rise in personal debt, or the issues with housing, or the demonisation of the poorest etc, etc, etc.

It will be a factor in the future but at the moment it is the Tories' policies that have left us in this position and consistently going on about Brexit just strengthens their position as it allows all the underlying blame to be avoided

To avoid Brexit we need to get rid of the Tory Government, an immensely difficult task. Not helped by discredited ex-Labour PMs making incoherent interventions

I personally think a Labour Government that made overtures to the EU would be sufficien enough of a changet to allow a fundamental change of direction by both sides. Whether Corbyn would do that is a tricky question to answer but I am sure he is perfectly aware what his party membership thinks and I would not be surprised if he made an agreement with the EU to allow us to stay. He could also set out out what he will be working to change about the EU in coperation with our EU partners so as to answer some of his concerns and desire for a more socially inclusive EU

One thing though is that banging on about Brexit to the exclusion of everything else is a counter-productive strategy if you want to actually avoid it - we saw how it went wrong for the LD last year


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:41 am 
Online
Site Admin

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 6:27 pm
Posts: 5024
Has thanked: 1580 times
Been thanked: 8304 times
gilsey wrote:
adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
FWIW I would advocate talking of avoiding Brexit rather than stopping it.

This for me leaves room for a bit of movement from the EU (that Hugo will ridicule me for even suggesting) and a relatively comfortable landing with the credibility of most leavers and remainers in tact.


In many ways the question is whether May will break the conservative party by doing what should be the inevitable and ending up in or all but in the single market and/or customs union, or break the country by leaving with no or a very limited deal. I'm not confident that she'd chose to break the conservative party.

Can anyone tell me why the conservative party inspires such faith from May that she will risk her own mental and physical health for the cause, quite apart from failing to put the country first?

As ever in our archaic system, this will come down to the marginal seats IMHO.

When MPs in Tory marginals realise that they have no hope in the next election (whenever it is) with the ridiculous Hard Brexit being proposed they will be tempted to rebel. These are the top 20 Tory targets for Labour:

Southampton Itchen
Pudsey
Hastings and Rye
Chipping Barnet
Thurrock
Preseli
Calder Valley
Norwich North
Broxtowe
Stoke-on-Trent South
Telford
Bolton West
Aberconwy
Northampton North
Hendon
Mansfield
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
Milton Keynes South
Northampton South
Pendle

I may have time to add in the estimated referendum results to these later.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:45 am 
Offline
First Secretary of State

Joined: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 1:22 pm
Posts: 3988
Has thanked: 150 times
Been thanked: 2261 times
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
discordantharmony wrote:
Morning Paul.

Tony Blair and The White House hey, who would've thought it.

That was what you meant wasn't it :D :D


:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Everything turns on Brexit.

Want to cut ambulance waiting times? Brexit.

Want lower rail fares? Brexit.

Labour hasn't had a good start. It isn't relevant as it has an identical policy to the Tories on the single market and customs union.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:57 am 
Online
Speaker of the House

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 10:34 am
Posts: 2908
Has thanked: 815 times
Been thanked: 5177 times
SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
discordantharmony wrote:
Morning Paul.

Tony Blair and The White House hey, who would've thought it.

That was what you meant wasn't it :D :D


:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Everything turns on Brexit.

Want to cut ambulance waiting times? Brexit.

Want lower rail fares? Brexit.

Labour hasn't had a good start. It isn't relevant as it has an identical policy to the Tories on the single market and customs union.



Brexit will have an effect as it will probably, in the medium and long-term, reduce the growth of the economy which will reduce spending. The currency effects are more difficult to predict but may lead to inflation on raw materials but help with exports

I think we all know that

To say though that Brexit is responsible for ambulance waiting times and rail prices is simplistic and counterproductive

Is Brexit to blame for the spending on the NHS and social care to have not been adequate since 2010 and brexit is not responsible for season ticket between Liverpool and Manchester being around the same price as an annual ticket to travel in the whole of Switzerland on any train

These are decisions taken by UK Governments - both Tory and Labour (although the former being much more to blame than the latter in my view) - on where to spend public money and what levels of taxation to levy

To blame them exclusively on Brexit is very, very weak indeed

Perhaps an approach saying that 'The Tories have weakened the economy since 2010 by pursuing counter-productive and, in many cases, economically illiterate austerity policies that have led to a diminution in our public services ever since they have come to power. Cuts have hit everywhere and have led to problems with the NHS, social care and support for the most vulnerable. They are also responsable for a referendum that is taking us out of the largest trading block in the world and their current approach to Brexit will lead to future years of economic damage that will not allow any Government to easily put right the damage they have done.' would be better

Not ignoring Brexit but also putting it in the right context


Last edited by howsillyofme1 on Thu 04 Jan, 2018 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 11:58 am 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
@gilsey.

Brexit raises the likelihood of a trade deal with the US that allows their medical companies access to the NHS, something it was looking more and more likely TTIP was not going to do.

Brexit is going to impact everything, that's the whole point. Corbyn and McDonnell see opportunities for radical reform completely free from the limitations of the EU. Personally I'm not convinced by the scope of those opportunities within the straightjacket of global conventions, whilst I'm very concerned by the scope for those on the right to reshape this country with the worst of the US as their inspiration if they manage to hold onto the reins.

If enough of the country is against leaving the single market, it should be possible for the opposition to join with Tory rebels to retain a close relationship with the EU and thus keep the US corporate vultures at arms length, but to get to that point I feel it important that the idea that we have choices about how to Brexit or even Brexit at all are still open to us. "Will of the people" and "respecting the referendum" are attempts to shut that debate down or, at least, even if genuinely meant, help the interests of those who want to shut that debate down.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 12:03 pm 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:26 pm
Posts: 6785
Has thanked: 678 times
Been thanked: 15003 times
frog222 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Somebody said on Twitter re the referendum being a close run thing - "yes it was, but so was the battle of Waterloo, there weren't many demands for that to be run again" ;)

(a facetious quip yes, but with a kernel of truth)

Otoh we do "run elections again" . For the mom ! :-)


Though we are then into the "referendums are not the same as elections" argument, of course ;)

One I have sympathy with, and actually see as an argument to avoid the former as much as possible. However, we are - thanks to Dave - stuck with this one.....


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 12:12 pm 
Online
Speaker of the House

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 10:34 am
Posts: 2908
Has thanked: 815 times
Been thanked: 5177 times
On this focus on inflation caused by the currency movement - personally I do not see a problem with inflation at 3-4% as it would be returning us to normal economics again, especially if interest rates could rise and we could actually see a better balance between debt/Investment/saving

The problems we have seem to be we have inflation but woeful productivity growth and low-quality jobs have led to wage stagnation so that rising prices are causing problems. The fact that interest rates cannot rise to to the debt burden and the reliance on house prices is also a problem

Of these, the inflation can probably be directly linked to currency movement post-Brexit but the levels of the pound and this inflation is not historically exceptional. we have had higher inflation more recently, and if you look at the currency depriciation you will see that a lot of that was seen in the period 2008 -2010.

The low productivity growth, high private debt, housing bubble, low interest rates had very little, if anything, to do with Brexit and are created by Government policies - the recovery from these outside the EU as envisaged by the Tories will be even slower than predicted

The reduction in growth forecasts since Brexit are real, but then again how many of us were lauding Osborne's growth when it was happening - we all said it was build on sand I think and the reckoning has just moved forward


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 12:18 pm 
Online
Speaker of the House

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 10:34 am
Posts: 2908
Has thanked: 815 times
Been thanked: 5177 times
Willow904 wrote:
@gilsey.

Brexit raises the likelihood of a trade deal with the US that allows their medical companies access to the NHS, something it was looking more and more likely TTIP was not going to do.

Brexit is going to impact everything, that's the whole point. Corbyn and McDonnell see opportunities for radical reform completely free from the limitations of the EU. Personally I'm not convinced by the scope of those opportunities within the straightjacket of global conventions, whilst I'm very concerned by the scope for those on the right to reshape this country with the worst of the US as their inspiration if they manage to hold onto the reins.

If enough of the country is against leaving the single market, it should be possible for the opposition to join with Tory rebels to retain a close relationship with the EU and thus keep the US corporate vultures at arms length, but to get to that point I feel it important that the idea that we have choices about how to Brexit or even Brexit at all are still open to us. "Will of the people" and "respecting the referendum" are attempts to shut that debate down or, at least, even if genuinely meant, help the interests of those who want to shut that debate down.



Willow,

A quick question

I think having pretty identical membership with the EU for the SM is pretty well-supported on here. I also see the CU as being a real benefit and I cannot see how Ireland can be worked out without it as well (I live in a country outside CU and there is definitely a hard border)

Do you think that a SM/CU agreement (so more than Norway) would be politically achievable if we were outside the decision-making process. As I said above, I support the principles ofhaving that Relationship but would not support it if we had no influence in making the rules.

It is this balance that I find really hard to work out how we can make it work, apart from avoiding Brexit completely - which opens up some of the other points I have been making and where I know we would differ in tactics


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 12:42 pm 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
frog222 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Somebody said on Twitter re the referendum being a close run thing - "yes it was, but so was the battle of Waterloo, there weren't many demands for that to be run again" ;)

(a facetious quip yes, but with a kernel of truth)

Otoh we do "run elections again" . For the mom ! :-)


Though we are then into the "referendums are not the same as elections" argument, of course ;)

One I have sympathy with, and actually see as an argument to avoid the former as much as possible. However, we are - thanks to Dave - stuck with this one.....

We're stuck with it to the extent that we are committed to buying the piglet in the poke, but nobody knows how much we are paying for the bugger ! :-)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 12:56 pm 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:18 pm
Posts: 9884
Has thanked: 1604 times
Been thanked: 12954 times
SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
discordantharmony wrote:
Morning Paul.

Tony Blair and The White House hey, who would've thought it.

That was what you meant wasn't it :D :D


:lol:

It was just an all round eye roll really.

Labour have had a powerful start to 2018 with the Tories basically in hiding. Blair is just a distraction.


Everything turns on Brexit.

Want to cut ambulance waiting times? Brexit.

Want lower rail fares? Brexit.

Labour hasn't had a good start. It isn't relevant as it has an identical policy to the Tories on the single market and customs union.


I think specifically Hard Brexit is the cause. Soft Brexit on the assessment I saw is not too bad in the short term. Of course it's bad over time as we get rules written that don't suit us.

Soft Brexit AFAIK just needs us biting the bullet on immigration. We should do that now.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:03 pm 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
World at One on now , with Govey cavorting in wildflower meadows post- brexit :-)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:04 pm 
Offline
First Secretary of State

Joined: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 1:22 pm
Posts: 3988
Has thanked: 150 times
Been thanked: 2261 times
V good on the EEA and Brexit

https://t.co/6jv5jadYwi?amp=1


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:17 pm 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
howsillyofme1 wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
@gilsey.

Brexit raises the likelihood of a trade deal with the US that allows their medical companies access to the NHS, something it was looking more and more likely TTIP was not going to do.

Brexit is going to impact everything, that's the whole point. Corbyn and McDonnell see opportunities for radical reform completely free from the limitations of the EU. Personally I'm not convinced by the scope of those opportunities within the straightjacket of global conventions, whilst I'm very concerned by the scope for those on the right to reshape this country with the worst of the US as their inspiration if they manage to hold onto the reins.

If enough of the country is against leaving the single market, it should be possible for the opposition to join with Tory rebels to retain a close relationship with the EU and thus keep the US corporate vultures at arms length, but to get to that point I feel it important that the idea that we have choices about how to Brexit or even Brexit at all are still open to us. "Will of the people" and "respecting the referendum" are attempts to shut that debate down or, at least, even if genuinely meant, help the interests of those who want to shut that debate down.



Willow,

A quick question

I think having pretty identical membership with the EU for the SM is pretty well-supported on here. I also see the CU as being a real benefit and I cannot see how Ireland can be worked out without it as well (I live in a country outside CU and there is definitely a hard border)

Do you think that a SM/CU agreement (so more than Norway) would be politically achievable if we were outside the decision-making process. As I said above, I support the principles ofhaving that Relationship but would not support it if we had no influence in making the rules.

It is this balance that I find really hard to work out how we can make it work, apart from avoiding Brexit completely - which opens up some of the other points I have been making and where I know we would differ in tactics


I think SM/CU is politically achievable if there is a consensus for it across party lines in Parliament and I suspect there could be. Presenting it to the electorate, especially Tory voters, will be very difficult of course, but coping with the consequences of a hard Brexit will also be very difficult and would be continually resisted by a large majority as would not Brexiting at all. Going forward, the relationship between those in the SM but not the EU will change with an economy as large as ours in it, so I see it as a starting point rather than an end point. Remaining in the CU would be better for Ireland but prevents greater trade autonomy. I would accept either in or out of the CU personally and don't know which would be easier to gain support for.

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:17 pm 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:18 pm
Posts: 9884
Has thanked: 1604 times
Been thanked: 12954 times
frog222 wrote:
World at One on now , with Govey cavorting in wildflower meadows post- brexit :-)


Please summarize! No photos of cavorting tho!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:29 pm 
Online
Minister of State

Joined: Sun 29 Nov, 2015 1:24 pm
Posts: 499
Has thanked: 2480 times
Been thanked: 986 times
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
frog222 wrote:
World at One on now , with Govey cavorting in wildflower meadows post- brexit :-)


Please summarize! No photos of cavorting tho!

No photos on Radio4 :-) Politically acute post-brexitery, but he himself appears completely oppposed to the Liam Fox love affaire with chlorinated chicken and drugged-up meat .


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:30 pm 
Online
Prime Minister

Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:26 pm
Posts: 6785
Has thanked: 678 times
Been thanked: 15003 times
Given my attitude to Blair these days, just saying that I believe his denial on the Trump stuff. He isn't *that* stupid, hopefully.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 1:55 pm 
Online
Prime Minister
User avatar

Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 1:40 pm
Posts: 4268
Has thanked: 9535 times
Been thanked: 10792 times
I always like Wren-Lewis articles, but I found this one particularly good. He's really onto something with this. The next step is in considering how this effect should be reflected in policy attempts to reduce inequality:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2018 ... towns.html

_________________
“Find a nice, self sufficient hilltop, and fortify it.” - The Kraken Wakes


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu 04 Jan, 2018 2:12 pm 
Online
Chancellor

Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 9:51 am
Posts: 1964
Has thanked: 4938 times
Been thanked: 4737 times
Willow904 wrote:
@gilsey.

Brexit raises the likelihood of a trade deal with the US that allows their medical companies access to the NHS, something it was looking more and more likely TTIP was not going to do.

Brexit is going to impact everything, that's the whole point. Corbyn and McDonnell see opportunities for radical reform completely free from the limitations of the EU. Personally I'm not convinced by the scope of those opportunities within the straightjacket of global conventions, whilst I'm very concerned by the scope for those on the right to reshape this country with the worst of the US as their inspiration if they manage to hold onto the reins.

If enough of the country is against leaving the single market, it should be possible for the opposition to join with Tory rebels to retain a close relationship with the EU and thus keep the US corporate vultures at arms length, but to get to that point I feel it important that the idea that we have choices about how to Brexit or even Brexit at all are still open to us. "Will of the people" and "respecting the referendum" are attempts to shut that debate down or, at least, even if genuinely meant, help the interests of those who want to shut that debate down.

I'm not talking about Corbyn and McDonnell's 'opportunities for radical reform', which may or may not exist, and indeed they may or may not be thinking about them.
Nor am I talking abut trade deals with the US, I accept that's a concern but Labour are unlikely to go with such a deal.

I'm just talking about public expenditure. Brexit may/will make us poorer in terms of GDP due to loss of trade but if we say, we can't spend more money on the NHS because brexit has made us poorer, we'll make ourselves poorer still. If we haven't learnt that lesson after 7 years of austerity we don't deserve the NHS.

_________________
One world, like it or not - John Martyn


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 142 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AngryAsWell, Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], citizenJA, frog222, gilsey, howsillyofme1, PaulfromYorkshire, PorFavor, refitman, RogerOThornhill, Tubby Isaacs, Willow904 and 37 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group