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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 7:12 am 
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Morning all.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 7:30 am 
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KPMG is on a roll .

Virgin Health follows Carillion, which followed Gupta in South Africa, which followed FIFA .Just to name the recent headline cases, which are the tip of an iceberg.

" When KPMG was found to have been up to its neck in the Gupta corruption affair in South Africa recently, worldwide chairman John Veihmeyer apologised profusely, sacked the firm’s local leadership and claimed “this is not who we are”. But that was only after the beancounters began feeling the heat of some seriously bad publicity. Until that happens, as the Fifa episode shows, it’s business as usual, sweeping things under the carpet. For that is who KPMG are – and millions of fans are paying the price. "

http://www.private-eye.co.uk/issue-1461/news


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 7:30 am 
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SH makes me seem rational.In my opinion


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 7:35 am 
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" At the mention of Philip Hammond, John Redwood became apoplectic. The chancellor was an apostate. The betrayer of the one true Brexit. The only way to show the EU we meant business was to crash out on World Trade Organization rules. That would show them. Redwood becomes more detached from reality by the day. Anna Soubry responded by imploring the government to stand up to the 35 Tory hardline MPs who were driving the calls for an ideological Brexit. "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-minister


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 7:47 am 
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Chaneling,presumably using perfume without knowing it.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 8:02 am 
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I do like these calls for Corbyn to "get off the fence" on the single market.

He isn't on the fence!


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 8:09 am 
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SpinningHugo wrote:
I do like these calls for Corbyn to "get off the fence" on the single market.

He isn't on the fence!

Morning!


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 8:11 am 
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HindleA wrote:
Chaneling,presumably using perfume without knowing it.


Morning Hindle A

Is 'chaneling' something Pearl would do?


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 8:20 am 
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From last night

SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Dynamite if true

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... uk-will-be

the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

bit of a cliff-hanger there :lol:



Everyone rational already knows this. It doesn't matter.


I have to say that I, broadly speaking, agree with this. Leave wasn't a rational vote and the ongoing process isn't a rational matter. Either you believe in the fairies and elves of the leave campaign leaders, in which case none of this will touch you, or you know this will make us poorer and you either base your opposition to leave on this or you just don't care, finding some kind of largely intangible benefits elsewhere in the mess.

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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 8:21 am 
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SpinningHugo wrote:
I do like these calls for Corbyn to "get off the fence" on the single market.

He isn't on the fence!

to be fair it's probably just a lazy headline, based on Alison McGovern MP, said: "It is time for Labour to get off the fence."
Though I'm sure they'd be very happy for Corbyn to come with them.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 8:38 am 
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adam wrote:
From last night

SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Dynamite if true

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... uk-will-be

the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

bit of a cliff-hanger there :lol:



Everyone rational already knows this. It doesn't matter.


I have to say that I, broadly speaking, agree with this. Leave wasn't a rational vote and the ongoing process isn't a rational matter. Either you believe in the fairies and elves of the leave campaign leaders, in which case none of this will touch you, or you know this will make us poorer and you either base your opposition to leave on this or you just don't care, finding some kind of largely intangible benefits elsewhere in the mess.

I agree the solid Leave vote will be unaffected by this, but that's not the issue.

IMHO the majority of voters were horribly undecided on the Referendum. We know from polling etc that many are having second thoughts. We know though that many are worried about going against a democratic verdict.

This kind of report can really help wavering Leave voters come over. You knew that Johnson was lying and plain wrong Adam, but most folk didn't. Now they do. It's not a good look for the Tories that this has been leaked either.

So, I think interventions like this are important. What's really needed is for MPs in Leave constituencies to start hearing from their constituents that they are fearful about the economic future, that they regret having voted Leave, that they feel they were misled etc. etc.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 9:47 am 
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Good-morning, everyone


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 9:48 am 
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adam wrote:
I have to say that I, broadly speaking, agree with this. Leave wasn't a rational vote and the ongoing process isn't a rational matter. Either you believe in the fairies and elves of the leave campaign leaders, in which case none of this will touch you, or you know this will make us poorer and you either base your opposition to leave on this or you just don't care, finding some kind of largely intangible benefits elsewhere in the mess.

I think it's helpful, not least because it's come from DExEU, not from the Treasury. It may only have a marginal impact on neutrals but every little bit helps, and it's helpful to soft brexiters as it indicates that DD is getting cold feet. IMO.

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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 9:58 am 
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My post, 'We just don't know', made last night was meant as a joke, not a nasty one
I agree tacking on an 'in my opinion' to posts shouldn't be necessary
A tactful, honest and genuine post speaks well enough for its author


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 9:58 am 
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adam wrote:
From last night

SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Dynamite if true

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... uk-will-be

the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be

bit of a cliff-hanger there :lol:



Everyone rational already knows this. It doesn't matter.


I have to say that I, broadly speaking, agree with this. Leave wasn't a rational vote and the ongoing process isn't a rational matter. Either you believe in the fairies and elves of the leave campaign leaders, in which case none of this will touch you, or you know this will make us poorer and you either base your opposition to leave on this or you just don't care, finding some kind of largely intangible benefits elsewhere in the mess.



Good morning

So all this calling for impact statements was not important then?

In fact if none of the arguments against are important then why do we not just forget arguing against Brexit and just accept it - I take from your statement that we have three groups of people

Those who don't care if there is an impact financially and want to Leave
Those who believe it will make us poorer but want to leave on other grounds
Those who already know and want to stay

I, ,myself, find that analysis irrational as the conclusion is that everyone has made their mind up and no-one will move from Leave to Remain

That is why Hugo's simplistic statements are so ridiculous - if you take them to their rational conclusion then they are meaningless

There are people who will change their minds. I know some of them. The better the data the more chance they will change their minds and the data so far has been lost in the poor attempts at Project Fear by Osborne where people are now skeptical of predictions made by the Remain campaign

These are impact statements from within the Brexit department of the Government. They are going to be difficult to ignore completely - even by Labour. Why do you think that the Government was worried about releasing them?

They put in play the one point that is the really difficult one for the politicians. The only sensible economic decision is to maintain the status quo in all the institutions - so we have two options. Outside with no say or inside as now. Politically both are difficult to sell after the referendum

I have always maintained that the critical events in process are not always obvious to those living them. This is for people looking back to say. The data contained within these statements may actually be far more important than the A50 vote that Hugo goes on about incessantly


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:00 am 
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It's irrational arguing with SpinningHugo


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:01 am 
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citizenJA wrote:
My post, 'We just don't know', made last night was meant as a joke, not a nasty one
I agree tacking on an 'in my opinion' to posts shouldn't be necessary
A tactful, honest and genuine post speaks well enough for its author


As you say it should not be necessary and normally you can tell from the tone of the post

Calling someone 'flatly wrong' as happened last night is not the tone that suggests that

Hugo can mean 'in my opinion' but to him it seems his 'opinion' is the truth so it means nothing


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:06 am 
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Indeed, yes
I need to look at the news
What latest havoc Tory government have wrought


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:15 am 
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This somehow sums up the state of things in England 2018

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... d-mob.html

Some "activists" entered the Blighty Cafe in London, which celebrates Churchill. The protesters were claiming the cafe was too overtly colonialist in tone, if I understand correctly.

This hit the news, so Boris jumped on the bandwagon and asked Jeremy Corbyn to "condemn" the protest.

Finally, it emerges that Corbyn and his wife have on occasions visited the same cafe for a quiet coffee.

Hysteria.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:33 am 
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Good morning Fly the Nest
The more strident the Brexiters become the more I'm convinced that it must be personal. I believe that their main reason for wanting Brexit is that they have fortunes stashed offshore and they do not want us to know anything about it. The EU may well have some plans for transparency that they want nothing to do whatsoever - stuff the loss of growth for everyone else. Tories to the core you can bet the driving force is selfishness.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:36 am 
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Part of my thinking just comes from my general miserablism, I know, but it's also based in the practicality of where we are. What happens if a large number of people change their minds? There has been little from May to suggest that she is minded to face down the extreme end of her party, I still will not believe unless or until it actually happens that any conservative 'rebels' from any wing will actually bring the government down over anything at the moment for fear of Labour winning, and in the absence of there being anything about it the government's 'plans' to stumble towards a destructive exit will continue. They've known this stuff all along and it hasn't changed the way they've been doing things. They've always known what these and earlier formal or informal reports say. They either don't believe them - which is the instant response from tory Leave this morning - or they don't care. Where can popular opinion affect this now?

I think, perhaps, that the only way out of this is trying to make sure that those who have done this to us are called to account in the longer term, because there doesn't appear to be any parliamentary arithmetic to make better progress in the short term. What happens if May ignores a huge block of the conservative party in the commons (and a bigger block in the country, it would appear) and joins with the opposition to force through a more continually alligned exit? She then runs a real risk of losing a confidence vote because at that time a big block of her party will dump her - in fact they'd probably have got rid of her before she got that far. What happens if she bows to the right of her party? The rebels don't risk a Corbyn led government and she gets what she wants.

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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:51 am 
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Adam you are largely correct I'm sure, but one thing that Tory MPs care about more than the Tories losing, is losing themselves.

Sitting Tory MPs in places where the Referendum was close won't want to be seen anywhere the helm of the Good Ship Brexit as she sinks below the waves.

Imagine being a Tory MP in London!


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:51 am 
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adam wrote:
Part of my thinking just comes from my general miserablism, I know, but it's also based in the practicality of where we are. What happens if a large number of people change their minds? There has been little from May to suggest that she is minded to face down the extreme end of her party, I still will not believe unless or until it actually happens that any conservative 'rebels' from any wing will actually bring the government down over anything at the moment for fear of Labour winning, and in the absence of there being anything about it the government's 'plans' to stumble towards a destructive exit will continue. They've known this stuff all along and it hasn't changed the way they've been doing things. They've always known what these and earlier formal or informal reports say. They either don't believe them - which is the instant response from tory Leave this morning - or they don't care. Where can popular opinion affect this now?

I think, perhaps, that the only way out of this is trying to make sure that those who have done this to us are called to account in the longer term, because there doesn't appear to be any parliamentary arithmetic to make better progress in the short term. What happens if May ignores a huge block of the conservative party in the commons (and a bigger block in the country, it would appear) and joins with the opposition to force through a more continually alligned exit? She then runs a real risk of losing a confidence vote because at that time a big block of her party will dump her - in fact they'd probably have got rid of her before she got that far. What happens if she bows to the right of her party? The rebels don't risk a Corbyn led government and she gets what she wants.


adam,

I think that is a generally fair reflection of what could happen - the release of these figures may not do much on the short term but it cannot be dismissed as Hugo does by saying it is 'not important'. We are in no position to make that assessment as we cannot predict future events - and with his past record on prediction I suggest it will be shown to be very important indeed

The Tories are a basket case on this - you only have to hear the Brexiteers this morning to know how far gone they are so the impact on them will be limited I would guess, although may embolden some of the Remain bunch - by God they need emboldening a bit

I think actually the party that will be most affected by up-to-date and more credible analysis is Labour (in credible I do not mean 'right' but the Treasury analyses from 2016 are easily dismissed due to closeness to Osborne) - how will they respond over the next few months?

It still does deal with the political difficulties of finding a way out of this


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 10:53 am 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
adam wrote:
Part of my thinking just comes from my general miserablism, I know, but it's also based in the practicality of where we are. What happens if a large number of people change their minds? There has been little from May to suggest that she is minded to face down the extreme end of her party, I still will not believe unless or until it actually happens that any conservative 'rebels' from any wing will actually bring the government down over anything at the moment for fear of Labour winning, and in the absence of there being anything about it the government's 'plans' to stumble towards a destructive exit will continue. They've known this stuff all along and it hasn't changed the way they've been doing things. They've always known what these and earlier formal or informal reports say. They either don't believe them - which is the instant response from tory Leave this morning - or they don't care. Where can popular opinion affect this now?

I think, perhaps, that the only way out of this is trying to make sure that those who have done this to us are called to account in the longer term, because there doesn't appear to be any parliamentary arithmetic to make better progress in the short term. What happens if May ignores a huge block of the conservative party in the commons (and a bigger block in the country, it would appear) and joins with the opposition to force through a more continually alligned exit? She then runs a real risk of losing a confidence vote because at that time a big block of her party will dump her - in fact they'd probably have got rid of her before she got that far. What happens if she bows to the right of her party? The rebels don't risk a Corbyn led government and she gets what she wants.


adam,

I think that is a generally fair reflection of what could happen - the release of these figures may not do much on the short term but it cannot be dismissed as Hugo does by saying it is 'not important'. We are in no position to make that assessment as we cannot predict future events - and with his past record on prediction I suggest it will be shown to be very important indeed

The Tories are a basket case on this - you only have to hear the Brexiteers this morning to know how far gone they are so the impact on them will be limited I would guess, although may embolden some of the Remain bunch - by God they need emboldening a bit

I think actually the party that will be most affected by up-to-date and more credible analysis is Labour (in credible I do not mean 'right' but the Treasury analyses from 2016 are easily dismissed due to closeness to Osborne) - how will they respond over the next few months?

It still does deal with the political difficulties of finding a way out of this

For Labour, reports like this certainly give credence to saying that no version of Brexit will give us the economic benefits we have now, so that test has been failed.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 11:04 am 
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Indeed Paul, this is what I was thinking

I will await the response with interest - clearly it will need to be predicated by the release of the report

I do hope that those on the right do not start running to the press demanding a rapid change of policy as that is not going to happen.

The important step, for now, os that Labour has already a set position on the transition period - what they need time to develop is what the post-transition deal would look like and for that they will need some more time

Starmer also has an UQ this afternoon so it will be interesting to see how he approaches that


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 11:41 am 
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The point is, as evidence grows of how disastrous a no deal "hard" Brexit would be even some in the Tory party will moderate their approach. They HAVE to.

The bottom line is that reality-averse fanatics like Redwood and JRM are actually a minority even amongst Tory MPs. Sooner or later this is going to have to count.

Isn't it?


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 11:54 am 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
The point is, as evidence grows of how disastrous a no deal "hard" Brexit would be even some in the Tory party will moderate their approach. They HAVE to.

The bottom line is that reality-averse fanatics like Redwood and JRM are actually a minority even amongst Tory MPs. Sooner or later this is going to have to count.

Isn't it?


I don't see how they can get through this without a major rift between the two sides....I know that they are a minority but an influential and loud minority. Also, the members of the party, although not numerous and with limited power are pretty extreme on this subject

And, I know that UKIP is on its knees but you can imagine Farage is on manouevres at the fringes

Labour are at less risk (and who would miss Hoey) but the leadership needs to show the flexibility and be able to respond to what happens - not immediately but from March onwards


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:13 pm 
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Reason v Emotion

Reason rarely matters in politics. The cultural factors ("Britain must be free") and emotional ones ("we need change") are far more important. Anyone paying the remotest attention knows Brexit is terrible and will make the poorest in particular much poorer overtime than they would be. Without some leadership from a party grouping they have other allegiances to, there is nothing to be done to persuade. The only comfort to be had is in mockery of those responsible.

You see the same thing in relation to lots of issues (eg rail nationalisation, student tuition fees) where it just doesn't matter how weighty the arguments on the other side are, most people don't care a damn.

Again, dumb things won't be stopped, but we can get a crumb of comfort from mocking those responsible for making things worse.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:15 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
The point is, as evidence grows of how disastrous a no deal "hard" Brexit would be even some in the Tory party will moderate their approach. They HAVE to.

The bottom line is that reality-averse fanatics like Redwood and JRM are actually a minority even amongst Tory MPs. Sooner or later this is going to have to count.

Isn't it?



These reports are not specifically about hard Brexit. Even the softest Brexit (Norway) leaves the UK 2% worse off in the studies (which sounds small but is in fact huge at the margin). The brunt of that will hit those at the bottom.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:16 pm 
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Sure, emotion often trumps reason. That's not a justification for giving up.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:19 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
For Labour, reports like this certainly give credence to saying that no version of Brexit will give us the economic benefits we have now, so that test has been failed.


Which has been blindingly obvious from the start. As there is no result other than staying in the single market and customs union that gives us "exactly the same benefits" Labour's tests were meaningless as they couldn't be passed in a universe where gravity exists. It was never a serious policy.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:21 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Sure, emotion often trumps reason. That's not a justification for giving up.



I don't agree, and nor do you. Brexit is not going to be stopped. All that is left is apportioning blame to those responsible, and mocking those who have damaged the UK who should have known better.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:30 pm 
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SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Sure, emotion often trumps reason. That's not a justification for giving up.



I don't agree, and nor do you. Brexit is not going to be stopped. All that is left is apportioning blame to those responsible, and mocking those who have damaged the UK who should have known better.

Brexit won't be stopped I predict, but I think there's a possibility it may be avoided.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:32 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Sure, emotion often trumps reason. That's not a justification for giving up.



I don't agree, and nor do you. Brexit is not going to be stopped. All that is left is apportioning blame to those responsible, and mocking those who have damaged the UK who should have known better.

Brexit won't be stopped I predict, but I think there's a possibility it may be avoided.



A subtle but vital distinction.

I assume we're talking about the weird and wonderful scenario you spelled out a few weeks ago?


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:34 pm 
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SpinningHugo wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Sure, emotion often trumps reason. That's not a justification for giving up.



I don't agree, and nor do you. Brexit is not going to be stopped. All that is left is apportioning blame to those responsible, and mocking those who have damaged the UK who should have known better.



Why do you feel yourself qualified and entitled to speak for someone else in such a way?

Brexit is not likely to be stopped in my view but there is no way that we can predict what will happen in reality. I really think you should stop this definite prediction

The blame is clear - it is Cameron and Osborne who left its legacy for May whose incompetence has been manifest in appointing her Ministers and declaring a damaging election for party advantage

I know you will try to blame the Labour Party - and you can apportion some small amount of blame but you could also do this for many, many people.

Three people are primarily responsible for the situation we are in now

Despite all this though we should not try persuading people that a mistake is being made and that they should change opinion - something I see very little evidence of you doing. All you do is end up pissing off fellow Remainers by your nonsense posts

Do you ever speak to people who voted Leave, or try to understand why? Do you think this approach of insinuating they are stupid and foolish is at all useful?

The Government (supported in Parliament) gave the people a say in a binary referendum - the turned out in pretty high number and voted to Leave. That is a fact. We have to deal with it and not just treat it as an intellectual exercise

A lot of people are not politically that interested and have varied reasons for voting how they did


Last edited by howsillyofme1 on Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:35 pm 
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It is correct to say the 2016 referendum result is extremely unlikely to be reversed. That still leaves a very wide range of possible outcomes.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:47 pm 
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Oh, and a question on this impact statement - does anyone know what they used for the 'Norway' assessment? Norway of course is a party to the EEA agreement through EFTA which excludes certain sectors and also does not include the CU

Have I missed this detail?


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:58 pm 
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howsillyofme1 wrote:
Oh, and a question on this impact statement - does anyone know what they used for the 'Norway' assessment? Norway of course is a party to the EEA agreement through EFTA which excludes certain sectors and also does not include the CU

Have I missed this detail?


Apologies for answering my own question

Just seen the UQ and Yvette Cooper asked that question with the assumption that it wasn't included - of course there was no answer from the Tory but no suggestion she was wrong


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 12:59 pm 
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http://www.private-eye.co.uk/issue-1462/news

Quote:
Deep in Virgin territory


Will Virgin Care be the next Carillon? The above Private Eye article raises concerns about their debt level. The company is being kept afloat with anonymous loans.

They were recently awarded a large community services contract locally worth £700m beating the current suppliers:

Quote:
Virgin Care was selected as preferred bidder following a rigorous procurement process, competing against a partnership of local providers led by Sirona care & health.

http://www.bathandnortheastsomersetccg. ... t-somerset

If the only reason they are able to win such tenders is by underbidding and they go on to make a loss on these contracts there is clearly something wrong with the procurement process as this is not a sustainable way to run our vital public services.

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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 1:07 pm 
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'I know what let's do... Brexit for diversionary purposes!'


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 1:44 pm 
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Well it seems that Keir Starmer totally eviscerated "Brexit minister" Steve Baker in the HoC earlier.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 1:46 pm 
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Can I suggest that you go an look at Mandelson's speech in the HoL today - not my favourite politician but it was a very measured and incisive intervention in the debate

http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Inde ... 88d9c86958


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 1:47 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Well it seems that Keir Starmer totally eviscerated "Brexit minister" Steve Baker in the HoC earlier.


Baker is a slimy little dweeb......

that is not meant to be insulting by the way


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 2:30 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... e-agencies


Councils face huge bills as foster carers jump ship to private agencies


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 2:38 pm 
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https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/fe ... l-we-think

Why Our Emotions Are More Rational Than We Think


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 2:49 pm 
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HindleA wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/30/councils-huge-bills-foster-carers-private-agencies


Councils face huge bills as foster carers jump ship to private agencies

There you go JA

Your daily dose of Tory nastiness.


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 3:15 pm 
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Some light relief. I particularly liked the 'speculative bubble'.
https://twitter.com/SonyKapoor/status/9 ... 5786261504

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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 3:20 pm 
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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home ... ation-fees


Home Office proposes changes to passport application fees


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 3:49 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/voluntary-s ... ative-peer


Charity Commission heralds new start for charities and government
David Brindle


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PostPosted: Tue 30 Jan, 2018 4:13 pm 
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17m17 minutes ago
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No10 spokesman refuses to back Steve Baker’s claim that the Brexit analysis papers were released to “undermine” the Government. Awkward ...

PTO ;-)


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