Thursday 15th March 2018

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refitman
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Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by refitman »

Morning all.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

Morning.



https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Morning.

I heard this guy on the radio this morning. I think he actually used the phrase "hybrid warfare" at one point. Certainly he talked about the Salisbury poisoning as part of a pattern of Russian aggression including trying to interfere in Italian elections and something in Denmark that I missed. He really seemed to know what he was talking about. Theresa May needs to listen to people like this, we need EU wide coordinated action against Putin money and disinformation before he undermines our democracy:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mishal Husain
@MishalHusainBBC
Former NATO Sec-Gen Rasmussen: No convincing answers from Russia on Salisbury, but this is not an Article 5 matter. Would be disproportionate to invoke it. But sanctions should be extended to 12 months (from 6) and should target wealthy individuals close to Putin
7:21 am · 15 Mar 2018
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ross Hawkins
@rosschawkins
Shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith says Labour accept that Russia is responsible for the attack @BBCr4today

says - that is our position now and I can assure you that is our front bench position

Nia Griffith says - I can't speak for Seumas Milne he has to speak for himself
And preferably not for Labour anymore.
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adam
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by adam »

Willow904 wrote:

Ross Hawkins
@rosschawkins
Shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith says Labour accept that Russia is responsible for the attack @BBCr4today

says - that is our position now and I can assure you that is our front bench position

Nia Griffith says - I can't speak for Seumas Milne he has to speak for himself
And preferably not for Labour anymore.
Corbyn yesterday said what Trump had said the afternoon before and what May had said the day before that, but timing can be everything and even if he had a point he was still pinning a sign to his back saying 'kick me'.
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

A considered and slightly hopeful view from the International Institute for Strategic Studies on how targeted sanctions against Russia could be used effectively:

https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/b ... ussia-af7f" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The Salisbury attack and relations with Russia after Putin’s re-election
Obviously it involves all countries in Western Europe working together, and preferably the US too. It also involves Western governments wanting more financial transparency. Not a path the Tories are comfortable with and I suspect Macron's reluctance to point the finger is based on a similar reluctance to lift the lid on financial murkiness, although hopefully I'm wrong because cleaning up the banks and global finance in general would be a good thing and our best defence against the insidious influence of Russian oligarchs.
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adam
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by adam »

Love to AK x
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:

Ross Hawkins
@rosschawkins
Shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith says Labour accept that Russia is responsible for the attack @BBCr4today

says - that is our position now and I can assure you that is our front bench position

Nia Griffith says - I can't speak for Seumas Milne he has to speak for himself
And preferably not for Labour anymore.
Corbyn yesterday said what Trump had said the afternoon before and what May had said the day before that, but timing can be everything and even if he had a point he was still pinning a sign to his back saying 'kick me'.
It's a shame, because Corbyn's right about the malign influence of Russian oligarch money. It's just that in order to use the attack in Salisbury to mobilise against Russian money and influence we need to be clear that Putin is not our friend, that the threat from Russia is real and it's about wealth and power and the undermining of public trust in our democratic institutions to the point that we don't resist their undermining to the benefit of the wealthy elite.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Ides of March today...

Fortunately the lecture I would normally go to in Senate House has been cancelled due to the strike so won't have to watch my back for conspirators...
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adam
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by adam »

From the graun yesterday

UK could rethink social media laws after Brexit, says minister
Hancock suggested one area in which Britain might lead the way was by establishing a new set of laws placing social media companies halfway between traditional platforms and publishers. “The current law is that they are mere conduits,” he said. “That law was put in place to stop the people who were responsible for the wiring being responsible for what went over the wiring.
I think this is an interesting are, and well worth investigating, but I think that the kind of regulation they seem to be talking about will end up falling short of being meaningful. Either you're responsible for the material you carry or you're not. Historically the postal service or newsagents were not responsible for the content they provided but newspapers and magazines, for example, were. Google, Facebook and so on have managed to convince that they are the postal service. We here on a forum are stuck with being a newspaper. I have no problem with the idea of making the owners and directors of companies like Google responsible for the content they help you find, but the fact is we'd rather make it easy to find child pornography than have to rip up the way the web works and start again.
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adam
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by adam »

Apologies if I read this on here and am just repeating somebody here, can't find it from yesterday, but there was one comment I think on the guardian that said that there was one thing May could do immediately that would seriously frustrate Putin's ambitions and serve as a big setback for him. She could revoke Article 50.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

I've seen a few people making that point on twitter.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

Press Association

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#Breaking The Government has won its Court of Appeal challenge against a ruling that its controversial benefit cap unlawfully discriminates against lone parents with children under two
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 56936.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Sir Brian announced the court's decision that the Government's appeal had been allowed - but also said that the families had been given permission to appeal to the Supreme Court.
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Also in court today, in Leeds, the latest stage in the campaign to save Huddersfield Royal Infirmary.

I think they are applying for a judicial review.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/brexit-g ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Brexit: Government 'paranoia' over secret business agreements
An attempt to enforce silence about outside discussions on trade border changes post-Brexit raises eyebrows across industry.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

Clyde Davies


@deadlyvices
5h5 hours ago
More
The Russians have proven past form with these compounds. Then we can triangulate the motive and opportunity against the means. The motive was to send a clear message to Russians at home that opposing Putin was high risk 9/

7 replies 20 retweets 112 likes
Reply 7 Retweet 20 Like 112 Direct message

Clyde Davies


@deadlyvices
5h5 hours ago
More
And to the UK that this little country, with post-imperial delusions of adequacy, was increasingly isolating itself globally by leaving the EU and could likely not call on the US for any meaningful help 10/

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

adam wrote:Apologies if I read this on here and am just repeating somebody here, can't find it from yesterday, but there was one comment I think on the guardian that said that there was one thing May could do immediately that would seriously frustrate Putin's ambitions and serve as a big setback for him. She could revoke Article 50.
JJ Patrick has suggested she should suspend article 50, rather than revoke it. The circumstances are certainly serious enough, I think, to make it a viable option.
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howsillyofme1
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Afternoon

Sorry to hear AKs news. My condolences

I am a little bit perplexed at the claims this nerve agent could only have come from Russia

These type of compounds are relatively easy to prepare if you have access to the necessary starting materials. If the structure is known any half decent organic chemist could synthesise it in a lab with sufficient containment

Without knowing the actual structure it is difficult to say hoe easy the raw materials could be accessed (many are controlled) but we have to remember the quantities needed here are very low

For use as a chemical weapon the challenges are much different. Acquisition of large amounts of starting materials, stabilising the product (often they do the final synthetic step as part of the delivery) and then a good delivery system

I think people who are commenting in the papers have not much knowledge of organic synthesis and how it is done. I suggest they watch an episode of Breaking Bad which shows you how simple it can be

I am pretty sure there is Russian involvement but without more information it is difficult to say that only a state could pull this off

If it was a state actor then they seem to have pretty incompetent in using an fairly exotic poison with known symptoms but actually managing to mess it up so badly. This stuff is toxic at the mg level and still they survived!
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Good to have some chemistry on here HSOM ;-)
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Willow904
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Do we need cast iron proof to stamp down on dodgy Russian oligarch money coming into the country?
Do we need cast iron proof to be wary of being too dependent on Russian gas?
Do we need cast iron proof to implement the magnitsky amendment?

The answer is no. We could and should be doing these things anyway. The fact that Putin is highly likely to be responsible for the Salisbury poisoning gives real weight and urgency to the above arguments. It increases the need for the Tories to answer questions about Russian donations. It serves no one but Putin to muddy the waters over responsibility. He has both means and motive, Occam's razor most definitely applies and I feel we need to respond and that it's important that Labour is clear about the need to respond. No doubt Labour's idea of how we respond is going to be very different from the Tories, but that is different from the basic fact that Putin has been engaging in more and more aggressive interference in Western democracies and fanning the flames of doubt over that fact simply plays into his hands.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

Good to see the Government spew taxpayers money in the pursuance of misanthropy,I suppose if you are equally discriminatory to other targeted groups it's all comparative#British Values.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

[youtube]tpKCqp9CALQ[/youtube]
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Willow904 wrote:Do we need cast iron proof to stamp down on dodgy Russian oligarch money coming into the country?
Do we need cast iron proof to be wary of being too dependent on Russian gas?
Do we need cast iron proof to implement the magnitsky amendment?

The answer is no. We could and should be doing these things anyway. The fact that Putin is highly likely to be responsible for the Salisbury poisoning gives real weight and urgency to the above arguments. It increases the need for the Tories to answer questions about Russian donations. It serves no one but Putin to muddy the waters over responsibility. He has both means and motive, Occam's razor most definitely applies and I feel we need to respond and that it's important that Labour is clear about the need to respond. No doubt Labour's idea of how we respond is going to be very different from the Tories, but that is different from the basic fact that Putin has been engaging in more and more aggressive interference in Western democracies and fanning the flames of doubt over that fact simply plays into his hands.

I imagine lots of people are revelling in all this. The good old days. I can picture them dusting down their old Michael Caine films.

And yes - this episode aside - we should, long ago, have taken action against the Russian oligarchs but this government really doesn't like to upset the moneyed. Whoever they are.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Good morfternoon.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

https://www.the-pool.com/news-views/opi ... disability" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Incidentally I don't think that Corbyn has said anything wrong, I just feel that clearly accepting it is "highly likely" (May's words) Putin is responsible is important because I genuinely believe our country's security has been put at risk and that the Tories cosying up to Russian oligarchs is part of that risk.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by frog222 »

howsillyofme1 wrote:Afternoon

Sorry to hear AKs news. My condolences

I am a little bit perplexed at the claims this nerve agent could only have come from Russia

These type of compounds are relatively easy to prepare if you have access to the necessary starting materials. If the structure is known any half decent organic chemist could synthesise it in a lab with sufficient containment

Without knowing the actual structure it is difficult to say hoe easy the raw materials could be accessed (many are controlled) but we have to remember the quantities needed here are very low

For use as a chemical weapon the challenges are much different. Acquisition of large amounts of starting materials, stabilising the product (often they do the final synthetic step as part of the delivery) and then a good delivery system

I think people who are commenting in the papers have not much knowledge of organic synthesis and how it is done. I suggest they watch an episode of Breaking Bad which shows you how simple it can be

I am pretty sure there is Russian involvement but without more information it is difficult to say that only a state could pull this off

If it was a state actor then they seem to have pretty incompetent in using an fairly exotic poison with known symptoms but actually managing to mess it up so badly. This stuff is toxic at the mg level and still they survived!
Dragging out the deaths would be more effective as a deterrent , mentioned as a possibility in the Luke Harding article in the Guardian . The one Russian scientist apparently poisoned accidentally lived painfully for 5 years iirc . Litvinenko lasted a few weeks ...

This article refered to a 'plant' in Uzbekhistan, tho as you say a big installation is not necessary ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/unli ... -1.3425736" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm still surprised that Hamish de Bretton-Gordon was so adamant that it could only have been manufactured in central Russia .
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

It was deeply cynical of course to (mis)use the existence of extra costs allowance(itself the subject of targeted cuts)for most not actually covering those costs in pretence of "protecting"(from own policies)
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Willow904 wrote:Do we need cast iron proof to stamp down on dodgy Russian oligarch money coming into the country?
Do we need cast iron proof to be wary of being too dependent on Russian gas?
Do we need cast iron proof to implement the magnitsky amendment?

The answer is no. We could and should be doing these things anyway. The fact that Putin is highly likely to be responsible for the Salisbury poisoning gives real weight and urgency to the above arguments. It increases the need for the Tories to answer questions about Russian donations. It serves no one but Putin to muddy the waters over responsibility. He has both means and motive, Occam's razor most definitely applies and I feel we need to respond and that it's important that Labour is clear about the need to respond. No doubt Labour's idea of how we respond is going to be very different from the Tories, but that is different from the basic fact that Putin has been engaging in more and more aggressive interference in Western democracies and fanning the flames of doubt over that fact simply plays into his hands.
I do not disagree with comments on Put in but I stand by my post

I could make this quantity of material if I had the starting materials. In fact if I had the structure I could probably come up with a number of routes

Synthesising small amounts of a compound is relatively easy, industrialising it is another matter

Russia may very well be behind it and there may be much more evidence but the idea they are the only people who can make small amounts of this material does not stack up...not easy but not impossible either
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by refitman »

In other news:

A shocking catalogue of failure at the 'hi-tech' schools that had one phone, no computer network and were £1m in debt before being shut down

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by howsillyofme1 »

frog222 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Afternoon

Sorry to hear AKs news. My condolences

I am a little bit perplexed at the claims this nerve agent could only have come from Russia

These type of compounds are relatively easy to prepare if you have access to the necessary starting materials. If the structure is known any half decent organic chemist could synthesise it in a lab with sufficient containment

Without knowing the actual structure it is difficult to say hoe easy the raw materials could be accessed (many are controlled) but we have to remember the quantities needed here are very low

For use as a chemical weapon the challenges are much different. Acquisition of large amounts of starting materials, stabilising the product (often they do the final synthetic step as part of the delivery) and then a good delivery system

I think people who are commenting in the papers have not much knowledge of organic synthesis and how it is done. I suggest they watch an episode of Breaking Bad which shows you how simple it can be

I am pretty sure there is Russian involvement but without more information it is difficult to say that only a state could pull this off

If it was a state actor then they seem to have pretty incompetent in using an fairly exotic poison with known symptoms but actually managing to mess it up so badly. This stuff is toxic at the mg level and still they survived!
Dragging out the deaths would be more effective as a deterrent , mentioned as a possibility in the Luke Harding article in the Guardian . The one Russian scientist apparently poisoned accidentally lived painfully for 5 years iirc . Litvinenko lasted a few weeks ...

This article refered to a 'plant' in Uzbekhistan, tho as you say a big installation is not necessary ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/unli ... -1.3425736" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm still surprised that Hamish de Bretton-Gordon was so adamant that it could only have been manufactured in central Russia .

Hmmm not convinced that you would use a nerve agent for this type of effect....the toxicity of these is very high and there is no safe dose

Suddenly the journalists and politicians become expert on subjects they have not studied for years....
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Thanks for the Chemical Brothers track - I love it :-)
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

The motive was to send a clear message to Russians at home that opposing Putin was high risk

and to the UK that this little country, with post-imperial delusions of adequacy, was increasingly isolating itself globally by leaving the EU and could likely not call on the US for any meaningful help
From the twitter thread I posted earlier, which has some more on the chemistry for those interested.

The scary thing about this for me is that we can see how the timing fits with Putin's audience at home, but wrt us leaving the EU, his confidence that it won't drive us back into the arms of the EU is chilling, albeit almost certainly correct. Almost as if there are people here assuring him there'll be no problem. Hmm.

Ditto for the US, can we assume Putin's happy for them to attribute it to Russia because it adds to his (appearance of) power?
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by adam »

howsillyofme1 wrote: Hmmm not convinced that you would use a nerve agent for this type of effect....the toxicity of these is very high and there is no safe dose. Suddenly the journalists and politicians become expert on subjects they have not studied for years....
It is much much more than likely that you know more about this stuff than I do, I know, but it has to be said in response to this that there is no reason why you would use Polonium 210 in an assassination, which from what I've read could only have been sourced from nuclear reactors within Russia.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

Damn I aim to displease.

(Must try harder,see me after school)
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

@PorFavor

I hope you're well, we haven't seen much of you lately. xx
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PorFavor »

gilsey wrote:@PorFavor

I hope you're well, we haven't seen much of you lately. xx
Hello. I've been an energy-free zone for a while. Hopefully, I shall improve as the weather gets better\warmer. It is going to, isn't it?

Thanks for asking - hope you're keeping well.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

She stuck to her appearance money demands and was successful.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

My offer to stop appearing still stands.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by PorFavor »

HindleA wrote:She stuck to her appearance money demands and was successful.

Have you seen the price of cat food lately? Not to mention the gin.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

I haven't got a cat as an advisor.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... 18#history" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


"DWP is investigating a discrepancy with the medical condition/International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for Employment and Support Allowance, Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disablement Allowance. While we assess the scale of the issue we have removed this breakdown from Stat-Xplore. Caution should be used when viewing this breakdown through other mechanisms, such as NOMIS and supplementary tables. We will provide an update once we have more information."


The never ending art of deception/obfuscation.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by gilsey »

The point I was making the other day about the OBR/IFS/Resolution Foundation judging the govt finance statements on the govt's own terms. Chris Giles takes it a stage further.

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Chris Giles

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This is not why we established the OBR - that was to take the historic bias out of official forecasts

Not to delegate the most sensitive political decisions to unelected officials
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by GetYou »

Have we had this yet?

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... -wmd-scam/

Interesting read.
To summarise:

1) Porton Down has acknowledged in publications it has never seen any Russian “novichoks”. The UK government has absolutely no “fingerprint” information such as impurities that can safely attribute this substance to Russia.
2) Until now, neither Porton Down nor the world’s experts at the Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were convinced “Novichoks” even exist.
3) The UK is refusing to provide a sample to the OPCW.
4) “Novichoks” were specifically designed to be able to be manufactured from common ingredients on any scientific bench. The Americans dismantled and studied the facility that allegedly developed them. It is completely untrue only the Russians could make them, if anybody can.
5) The “Novichok” programme was in Uzbekistan not in Russia. Its legacy was inherited by the Americans during their alliance with Karimov, not by the Russians.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by HindleA »

Well I'm often out of kilter with widespread opinion/the accepted wisdom eg.very much against simplification as an aim.A question of fairness,you can see the reasoning behind behind the necessary complexity often evidentially introduced to fill gaps and/or pursuance of social/health policy.Those are the ones getting the hit.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

Post by Willow904 »

GetYou wrote:Have we had this yet?

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... -wmd-scam/

Interesting read.
To summarise:

1) Porton Down has acknowledged in publications it has never seen any Russian “novichoks”. The UK government has absolutely no “fingerprint” information such as impurities that can safely attribute this substance to Russia.
2) Until now, neither Porton Down nor the world’s experts at the Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) were convinced “Novichoks” even exist.
3) The UK is refusing to provide a sample to the OPCW.
4) “Novichoks” were specifically designed to be able to be manufactured from common ingredients on any scientific bench. The Americans dismantled and studied the facility that allegedly developed them. It is completely untrue only the Russians could make them, if anybody can.
5) The “Novichok” programme was in Uzbekistan not in Russia. Its legacy was inherited by the Americans during their alliance with Karimov, not by the Russians.
Well, no.3 at least doesn't seem to be correct:


http://www.itv.com/news/2018-03-15/russ ... -response/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The row has also been playing out at the UN, where Britain called on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the international chemical weapons watchdog, to verify its findings that Moscow is behind the Salisbury incident.

Mr Johnson confirmed the UK will submit a sample of the nerve agent to OPCW for it to carry out its own tests.
Other arguments made by Murray have been questioned as well, such as in a twitter thread by someone called Clyde Davis already linked here today:

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The claim the US has as much knowledge of "Novichok" agents as the Russians could be sound, but I don't see why that would make Putin less of a prime suspect.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

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HindleA wrote:I haven't got a cat as an advisor.
It's just a kind of mascot.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

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Any "universal" musings should start/consider them first,not as a possible/optional/unoutlined consideration.
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Re: Thursday 15th March 2018

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There is probably a word for someone is sees everything,as arse about face.

PTO
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