FlyTheNest

Good morfternoon.

I'm watching Sky TV News. Kay Burley banging on about the (predicted) 32% of Irish voters who opted for "No" in the Irish Referendum on a change to the abortion law there. It's the same line she takes on the EU Referendum here.

What?

Assuming the exit poll is right, the result is a wonderful thing and leaves NI looking a little isolated.

Welcome to the 21st century, Ireland.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... c-cummings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Accusations are beginning to fly among the co-conspirators. No wonder the foreign secretary needs his jet plane"

Occasionally it feels like metaphors are our last great manufacturing industry. On Tuesday Theresa May visited the Chelsea Flower Show, where she was shown a cowpat, which she pronounced “wonderful”.Cow shit means cow shit, and I guess the cow had made a success of it. Even so, the prime minister’s insistence on being ludicrously positive about literally any old doodah is surely nearing its endgame.
Or is it?...

Morning all.

In which Peter Hitchens gets told a thing or two about stats and history...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It wasn't until relatively recently that I read that it was Edward Boyle who started the dismantling of the grammar system. And yet it's always Labour who get the blame. Funny that...

This is just nonsense:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories' 'secretly plotting to replace Theresa May with Michael Gove - before Ruth Davidson steps in'

Roscommon - only county to vote against legalising gay marriage - votes yes to repealing the 8th.

Willow904 wrote:This is just nonsense:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories' 'secretly plotting to replace Theresa May with Michael Gove - before Ruth Davidson steps in'

As somebody said on Twitter, to suggest this "plan" was written on the back of a fag packet is very possibly being over generous.

gilsey wrote:Assuming the exit poll is right, the result is a wonderful thing and leaves NI looking a little isolated.

The fine art of understatement.

It's a sign of how weak our government are that they haven't already demanded that NI - which is exactly like the rest of the UK in every way, as British as Surrey and cannot possibly be left with different arrangements to the rest of the UK - steps into line with equality legislation.

adam wrote:Roscommon - only county to vote against legalising gay marriage - votes yes to repealing the 8th.

Looking like Donegal may be the lone holdout this time.

Good-afternoon, everyone

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

Willow904 wrote:This is just nonsense:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories' 'secretly plotting to replace Theresa May with Michael Gove - before Ruth Davidson steps in'

As somebody said on Twitter, to suggest this "plan" was written on the back of a fag packet is very possibly being over generous.

Absurdities like these make me wonder what's really going on

The official results page for the referendum is here.

Fr. Kevin M. Cusick
‏ @MCITLFrAphorism

Let us pray together that satanic evil has not gained a foothold in Ireland, through legalized killing of the most innocent life in the womb, that will now take many years to exorcise. #SaveThe8th
3:18 pm - 25 May 2018 (Guardian - my emphasis))

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... egins-live

Satanic evil eh?

Wonder what his views are on abortion in the case of rape or incest?

I was going to say "What would you say if your daughter..." and then remembered.

adam wrote:The official results page for the referendum is here.

41.2% voter turnout

citizenJA wrote:

adam wrote:The official results page for the referendum is here.

41.2% voter turnout

That is not a complete figure, does not include those areas yet to report their final results.

Thank you, AK!

My Internet connection is sporadically functional

Assisted dying should be made legal here (and elsewhere). I feel that the arguments made in Ireland for the legalisation of abortion hold equal validity for the issue of assisted dying.

PorFavor wrote:Assisted dying should be made legal here (and elsewhere). I feel that the arguments made in Ireland for the legalisation of abortion hold equal validity for the issue of assisted dying.

Interesting. I hadn't thought about that parallel previously.

Does anyone here know why County Donegal should be the last place to declare a result (as in - are there any particular circumstances prevailing there, or is it just a case of "well, somebody has to be last")? I gather that the result is very close there.





Edited - typo

Oh, and BANK HOLIDAY KLAXON for this thread

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

Willow904 wrote:This is just nonsense:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tories' 'secretly plotting to replace Theresa May with Michael Gove - before Ruth Davidson steps in'

As somebody said on Twitter, to suggest this "plan" was written on the back of a fag packet is very possibly being over generous.

My dad used to say on the back of a postcard, but when it was dire, he'd say on the back of a stamp....

Irish Political Maps
@IrishPolMaps

Here it is, the final result. 66.4% Yes, 33.6% No. Ireland has #Repealedthe8th

Turnout was 64%, not too shabby either.

So we've got the thunder & lightning this evening, which just leaves me wondering who got the hot weather that normally precedes it because we certainly didn't.

Willow904 wrote:So we've got the thunder & lightning this evening, which just leaves me wondering who got the hot weather that normally precedes it because we certainly didn't.

Was is very, very frightening?

Next up in 'You really can't make this stuff up':

Top Tories in electoral fraud minister's local party arrested over electoral fraud allegations

Two vice chairs of Norwich Conservatives, the local party of Chloe Smith, the minister in charge of fighting electoral fraud were arrested on Thursday

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-12594924" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 wrote:So we've got the thunder & lightning this evening, which just leaves me wondering who got the hot weather that normally precedes it because we certainly didn't.

28° 40nm SE of Jersey this afternoon , went swimming at the beach

PS then had the massive black sky thunder and lightning !

Good morning, all

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... government" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"UK nuclear plans 'risk collapse if Hitachi talks fail'"

Japanese media have reported the UK government’s loan for the project could be as much as £13bn, and put the total cost of the plant at more than £20bn, even more than Hinkley Point C. The details are understood to have been leaked by the Japanese government, not Hitachi, and the UK government has said it “does not recognise” the reports.

Thread
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Maria Farrell
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@mariafarrell
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Irish ppl voted on specific change to written constitution, based on a fair idea of what the enacting legislation would be.

Brexit: open-ended question, little discussion of how it would work, no enacting legislation, no clear way to interpret result vis a vis Parliament.

9:00 AM - 27 May 2018


Maria Farrell
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@mariafarrell
4h4 hours ago
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Irish political system worked rigorously through the EVIDENCE and testimony; experts, affected women, etc. in disciplined + public way with a well-reported parliamentary committee to deliberate, resulting in some politicians changing their minds.

British system: did not.

Yes, there's a fair number of the "Oh, so you like referendums now I see!" floating around.

I forget who said it but that the Irish one was precisely the sort of issue that lends itself well to a referendum.

Good-afternoon, everyone

RogerOThornhill wrote:Yes, there's a fair number of the "Oh, so you like referendums now I see!" floating around.

I forget who said it but that the Irish one was precisely the sort of issue that lends itself well to a referendum.

a straightforward, honest and conclusive referendum

citizenJA wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:Yes, there's a fair number of the "Oh, so you like referendums now I see!" floating around.

I forget who said it but that the Irish one was precisely the sort of issue that lends itself well to a referendum.

a straightforward, honest and conclusive referendum

More straightforward ... but what would they have done if it was 50.0001% YES and 49.9999% NO ?

I’m curious, was there any discussion of this possibility ?

frog222 wrote:

citizenJA wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:Yes, there's a fair number of the "Oh, so you like referendums now I see!" floating around.

I forget who said it but that the Irish one was precisely the sort of issue that lends itself well to a referendum.

a straightforward, honest and conclusive referendum

More straightforward ... but what would they have done if it was 50.0001% YES and 49.9999% NO ?

I’m curious, was there any discussion of this possibility ?

Apologies...I'm researching something else at the moment and can't answer your question
Tidy website linked below giving all the details of the referendum

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/bills/bill/2018/29/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

frog222 wrote:

citizenJA wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:Yes, there's a fair number of the "Oh, so you like referendums now I see!" floating around.

I forget who said it but that the Irish one was precisely the sort of issue that lends itself well to a referendum.

a straightforward, honest and conclusive referendum

More straightforward ... but what would they have done if it was 50.0001% YES and 49.9999% NO ?

I’m curious, was there any discussion of this possibility ?

I've wondered exactly that about the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.......

Oh look, another one.

Mark Littlewood
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@MarkJLittlewood
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Am already looking forward to a second referendum in Ireland on abortion to make doubly sure that the electorate really did know what the the hell they were voting for. Am hoping Gina Miller will litigate to force a re-run.
2:11 PM - 26 May 2018

If they were that certain about the UK's position on everything Brexity, these snide comments wouldn't be happening.

Everybody out enjoying today's glorious weather, i presume?

Not especially. It's horribly muggy out. More thunder & lightning tonight I expect.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Everybody out enjoying today's glorious weather, i presume?

Not exactly enjoying pulling up ground elder, but yes it's a beautiful day.

gilsey wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Everybody out enjoying today's glorious weather, i presume?

Not exactly enjoying pulling up ground elder, but yes it's a beautiful day.

Thunder and lightening here

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Everybody out enjoying today's glorious weather, i presume?

Out at Star Wars: Solo
(warm & muggy,esp. walk back up hill)

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018 ... s-funding/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the sheer poverty of the IFS thinking. Paul Johnson admitted on the Today programme this morning, which I endured on my way down to Stansted, that he might suffer from a lack of imagination. Let me assure you, I agree. And the reason is obvious. Johnson simply cannot imagine the world changing. His whole analysis exists in a world where ceterus paribus holds true. But it does not.

I have not checked the report as yet to see what it says about automation so I will stick to discussion of tax where what the IFS is saying is that nothing will change. Johnson's commentary made this clear. We can't tax business: he thinks it will run away. Land and wealth taxes won't collect much, he says. And as for changes to allowances and reliefs, most especially when it comes to subsidising the already wealthy? Of that there was not a hint.

Let me put this in context. The IFS seem to be looking for about £30bn a year. That is, as I have shown, half the sum that subsidies to pension and ISA saving in the UK now cost each year. All of that sum goes as a subsidy to the City to effectively over inflate the price of shares. Johnson should know that. But he said on Radio 4 that there was nothing he could imagine cutting now that could meet health care costs. The only explanation for that is that he is not thinking, or cannot think, or wants to perpetuate the tax inequality we have in the UK where the wealthy pay no bigger a share of their income in tax than most in the population do.

and from one of the comments btl

A democratically elected government has a duty to do its utmost to ensure the wellbeing of its citizens and this government is failing to do that. A government is not like a household , it does not have to live within its means; it can create all the money it needs to do what needs to be done providing there are people willing to do the work and materials and equipment that can be purchased.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6387933/f ... s-promise/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"THERESA May faces Brexiteers’ fury over a plan for a huge taxpayer-funded NHS budget hike."

She wants a three per cent deal in summer that would hit the target of £350million a week more by the next election — the sum Brexiteers said could go to the NHS once we quit the EU.
Ideas include a 1p tax rise or a pensions raid.
But it has angered Brexiteers who want to use the £350million weekly saving.
Ex-Cabinet minister Priti Patel said: “The PM said she would guarantee that when we take back control of our money, it would be spent on domestic priorities, including the NHS. That should be the priority.”

It's the Sun & It's Priti Patel but presumably she really said this?! It almost makes Theresa May look good by at least sourcing specific funds, Though as one of the comments on Richard Murphy's blog says

Methinks this might just be the start of a softening-up process of the people to creating a hypothecated ‘ NHS Tax ‘ ; an insurance premium by any other name, given that moving
healthcare towards an insurance based system like the US is their long term goal.

Definitely worth reading blog (from Gilsey's link, above)
Also the pdf highlighted in it, suggesting changes to taxation system.

Morning all. House upside-down due to new kitchen being fitted. Who knew there was so much stuff in there?

Uncle Savage
‏@Uncle_savage00
May 27

More
1981:
1. Prince from England married
2. Liverpool wins the Champions League
3. The pope dies

2005:
1. Prince from England married
2. Liverpool wins the Champions League
3. The pope dies

2018:
1. Prince from England gets married
2. Liverpool's keeper saves the Pope

And now the cat, having managed to rip open the plastic food bag and gorge herself before I got downstairs, has gone into hiding at the back of my hi-fi...strangers in the house.

gilsey wrote:http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018 ... s-funding/

the sheer poverty of the IFS thinking. Paul Johnson admitted on the Today programme this morning, which I endured on my way down to Stansted, that he might suffer from a lack of imagination. Let me assure you, I agree. And the reason is obvious. Johnson simply cannot imagine the world changing. His whole analysis exists in a world where ceterus paribus holds true. But it does not.

I have not checked the report as yet to see what it says about automation so I will stick to discussion of tax where what the IFS is saying is that nothing will change. Johnson's commentary made this clear. We can't tax business: he thinks it will run away. Land and wealth taxes won't collect much, he says. And as for changes to allowances and reliefs, most especially when it comes to subsidising the already wealthy? Of that there was not a hint.

Let me put this in context. The IFS seem to be looking for about £30bn a year. That is, as I have shown, half the sum that subsidies to pension and ISA saving in the UK now cost each year. All of that sum goes as a subsidy to the City to effectively over inflate the price of shares. Johnson should know that. But he said on Radio 4 that there was nothing he could imagine cutting now that could meet health care costs. The only explanation for that is that he is not thinking, or cannot think, or wants to perpetuate the tax inequality we have in the UK where the wealthy pay no bigger a share of their income in tax than most in the population do.

and from one of the comments btl

A democratically elected government has a duty to do its utmost to ensure the wellbeing of its citizens and this government is failing to do that. A government is not like a household , it does not have to live within its means; it can create all the money it needs to do what needs to be done providing there are people willing to do the work and materials and equipment that can be purchased.

It's a bit more complicated than the btl comment, though. Money is issued into the economy by the government through spending and retrieved again through taxation. If too much money is left in the economy you end up with too much inflation. So a government can't just spend money and not tax at all, there has to be a balance. And once you get a rough balance, where you spend and where you tax become the real question. Consumer spending is going down at the moment, so more tax on working age consumers could have a recessionary effect on the economy. Whereas the above article is pointing out that we do seem to have quite a bit of inflation in assets - house prices and the stock market - in part as a result of government spending (e.g. help to buy) and low taxation in these areas.

The point about governments being able to spend as much as resources allow is roughly correct, but is made within the context of taxation already in place to retrieve the money spent. Money spent on public sector workers, for instance, is retrieved through income tax and NI. They then spend money on goods and thus VAT and so on. Money spent propping up property prices and the stock market, as our government has done since 2010, takes much longer to retrieve, if it can be retrieved at all and this is a large part of the problem with our economy at the moment. And the fact it has been deliberate is why only a change of government will change it.

The btl comment certainly isn't wrong, but we do have limits on available working age people, especially if we reject immigration, and we do have limits on natural resources, especially if we face barriers and costs to importing materials. Which is why there are concerns about how Brexit might limit a left wing government's ability to achieve the things it wants to achieve.