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 Post subject: Monday 11th June 2018
PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 7:44 am 
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Morning all

There's an interesting point turning up in BTL discussions at the graun from ostensibly european posters, which is there in different ways but is essentially this...

Quote:
Incredibly the Brits do not understand that the 'final deal' is just a withdrawal agreement - it is about sorting out the legal technicalities of 100% disentangling the UK from the EU. It is NOT about the future EU27-UK relationship. Trade negotiations will only start AFTER 30 March 2019 = after the UK becomes a third country in relation to the EU.


When you listen to our side, there still seems to be the idea that the only thing that would make us cede anything in withdrawal negotiations is the kind of trade deal we want. We don't get that this is entirely another question so far as the rest of the EU are concerned.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 8:42 am 
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adam wrote:
Morning all

There's an interesting point turning up in BTL discussions at the graun from ostensibly european posters, which is there in different ways but is essentially this...

Quote:
Incredibly the Brits do not understand that the 'final deal' is just a withdrawal agreement - it is about sorting out the legal technicalities of 100% disentangling the UK from the EU. It is NOT about the future EU27-UK relationship. Trade negotiations will only start AFTER 30 March 2019 = after the UK becomes a third country in relation to the EU.


When you listen to our side, there still seems to be the idea that the only thing that would make us cede anything in withdrawal negotiations is the kind of trade deal we want. We don't get that this is entirely another question so far as the rest of the EU are concerned.


The two are interlinked though. Very hard to negotiate the first with no idea what you want from the second, as we appear to be doing.

And ideally you want at least an outline of what eventual relationship you are aiming for before you begin the transitional period. Which is why, if you were serious about achieving a successful Brexit, you would be asking to extend the article 50 period in order to do this.

Leaving the EU with no idea what you will be able to negotiate in its stead is extremely reckless. (Though, even if the Tories seriously cock it up, I'm still hopeful a future government would be able to rejoin the single market, we would just need to accept all the rules).

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 8:46 am 
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Victoria Derbyshire once again enjoying the pitfalls of inviting children on the programne. We currently have a two year old running round the studio in a great state of excitement!

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 9:10 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
The two are interlinked though. Very hard to negotiate the first with no idea what you want from the second, as we appear to be doing.
And ideally you want at least an outline of what eventual relationship you are aiming for before you begin the transitional period. Which is why, if you were serious about achieving a successful Brexit, you would be asking to extend the article 50 period in order to do this.


I agree, but I think it's a slightly different point. It is generally absurd that almost two years after the referendum we have a government who can't say what they want the future to look like, beyond talking about things that are and were never achievable. But we're still at the stage of not even agreeing what we're leaving and what we're staying within, and any future trading agreement is going to have to be built around those ongoing structures. Our politicians talk as though everything is up for grabs right now but the EU don't seem to see that.

The issue about extending the article 50 period is difficult because at the moment one of the things time limiting any transition - which is different again, as that's what comes after we've left under the article 50 notice and isn't an extension of it - is the life of the current EU budget. We might ask to extend our notice period or our transition period but it's going to come at a significant money cost to us and it's going to open more cans of worms in our political class.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 9:12 am 
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This is long but very interesting - we may well have had it before but it's worth another nudge

Institute for Government - Implementing Brexit: Customs(from September 2017)

(There's a collection of their leave linked publications here).

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 9:27 am 
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Adam's first post quote -

Trade negotiations will only start AFTER 30 March 2019 = after the UK becomes a third country in relation to the EU.


This conjures up the image of international trade coming to an abrupt halt :-) !!

editpost PS no time for that long read, it's actually not raining in southern Normandy !


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 9:42 am 
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adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
The two are interlinked though. Very hard to negotiate the first with no idea what you want from the second, as we appear to be doing.
And ideally you want at least an outline of what eventual relationship you are aiming for before you begin the transitional period. Which is why, if you were serious about achieving a successful Brexit, you would be asking to extend the article 50 period in order to do this.


I agree, but I think it's a slightly different point. It is generally absurd that almost two years after the referendum we have a government who can't say what they want the future to look like, beyond talking about things that are and were never achievable. But we're still at the stage of not even agreeing what we're leaving and what we're staying within, and any future trading agreement is going to have to be built around those ongoing structures. Our politicians talk as though everything is up for grabs right now but the EU don't seem to see that.

The issue about extending the article 50 period is difficult because at the moment one of the things time limiting any transition - which is different again, as that's what comes after we've left under the article 50 notice and isn't an extension of it - is the life of the current EU budget. We might ask to extend our notice period or our transition period but it's going to come at a significant money cost to us and it's going to open more cans of worms in our political class.


Paying more money certainly wouldn't be popular, but that has to be weighed against the cost of leaving before we're ready. Things like Eurotom can't be fudged. We can't stay in Eurotom during transition in the same way we can continue temporarily in the single market and customs union. A new arrangement would have to be drafted and approved specifically for the transition and I'm not sure there is enough time left.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 9:45 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
... and I'm not sure there is enough time left.


One of the things that IoG document about customs talks about is how, nine months ago when it was published, time was seriously running out to be ready. It estimates that leaving without a deal would increase workload at Dover one-hundred fold, with all but zero capacity for expansion in place.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:13 am 
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Happy Birthday to Toby Latimer! :clap: :dance: :hug:


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:15 am 
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https://www.facebook.com/14982767671637 ... 786586489/

Some Brexit vote predictions from Robert Peston. Will be interesting to see if he's right:

Quote:
For what it’s worth, I expect her to win on “meaningful vote” tomorrow and lose on customs the day after.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:15 am 
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refitman wrote:
Happy Birthday to Toby Latimer! :clap: :dance: :hug:

Happy Birthday, Toby Latimer!
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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:15 am 
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Good-morning, everyone


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:25 am 
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Good morfternoon.

Poundworld goes into administration (Sky News) and more jobs may be lost.

How come the employment figures don't ever seem to reflect all the many recent job losses we've had?


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:26 am 
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Morning all.

This can't come as any surprise...

Today’s tuition fee headache risks becoming tomorrow’s debt crisis

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/todays-tuition-fee-headache-risks-becoming-tomorrows-debt-crisis/

Quote:
In today’s report, the Lords Economic Affairs Committee warns the entire system will have to change as it is not longer sustainable. Half of all student loans signed off every year will never be repaid, leaving the taxpayer footing a bill worth billions.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:26 am 
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PorFavor wrote:
Good morfternoon.

Poundworld goes into administration (Sky News) and more jobs may be lost.

How come the employment figures don't ever seem to reflect all the many recent job losses we've had?


Lots of self-employed bob-a-jobbers out there?

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:34 am 
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adam wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Good morfternoon.

Poundworld goes into administration (Sky News) and more jobs may be lost.

How come the employment figures don't ever seem to reflect all the many recent job losses we've had?

Lots of self-employed bob-a-jobbers out there?
Unemployment has been banned


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:35 am 
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And this is something else we've spoken about here before too...

Quote:
Tom Richmond
‏@Tom_Richmond
2h
2 hours ago


More
The new House of Lords report didn't mince its words on the 3m apprenticeship target: "The target prioritises quantity over quality and should be scrapped immediately. Framing a target in terms of starts makes no sense when about 40% of starts are not completed." Agreed.



I saw somewhere about the ludicrousness of including people doing MBAs as "apprentices." And all for trying to hit a target plucked out of the air with no evidence or analysis behind it.

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Last edited by RogerOThornhill on Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:36 am 
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citizenJA wrote:
adam wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Good morfternoon.

Poundworld goes into administration (Sky News) and more jobs may be lost.

How come the employment figures don't ever seem to reflect all the many recent job losses we've had?

Lots of self-employed bob-a-jobbers out there?
Unemployment has been banned


Even better, its been (almost) defined out of existence. Easy!


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:39 am 
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The market around the corner was open yesterday. I haven't checked its status today yet.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 10:54 am 
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Image

""“There’s a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages in bad faith diplomacy with President Donald J Trump and then tries to stab him in the back on the way out the door,” said Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade advisor, on Fox News Sunday.""

https://www.theguardian.com/world/comme ... de-trudeau

DanielDravot 4h ago — “” Trudeau said nothing in the press conference that he hadn’t said before. Maybe the fact that he trolled Trump by presenting him with a photo of his grandfather’s brothel in the Yukon is the real reason he threw a wobbly. If so I’ll happily put up with the consequences for that stroke of genius.""


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 11:09 am 
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PorFavor wrote:
Good morfternoon.

Poundworld goes into administration (Sky News) and more jobs may be lost.

How come the employment figures don't ever seem to reflect all the many recent job losses we've had?

One of my friends went from Maplin to Poundworld. :(


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 11:19 am 
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frog222 wrote:
“” Trudeau said nothing in the press conference that he hadn’t said before. Maybe the fact that he trolled Trump by presenting him with a photo of his grandfather’s brothel in the Yukon is the real reason he threw a wobbly. If so I’ll happily put up with the consequences for that stroke of genius.""[/i]


I have my issues with Trudeau Jr, but if true that is a masterful piece of trolling.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 11:41 am 
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next up
subsistence farming


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 11:47 am 
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refitman wrote:
Happy Birthday to Toby Latimer! :clap: :dance: :hug:

Thank you very much :D :D :D

Having a party later. I hope that the 30 year old Party 7 oversize tin of Watneys Red Barrel I found in the garage is still drinkable.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 11:54 am 
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refitman wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Good morfternoon.

Poundworld goes into administration (Sky News) and more jobs may be lost.

How come the employment figures don't ever seem to reflect all the many recent job losses we've had?

One of my friends went from Maplin to Poundworld. :(


I was just about to say that the retail job losses will have to show up in the unemployment figures eventually, because so many coming at once means people will run out of other retail jobs to go to. Sorry to hear your friend may be one of them.

Some of these retail failures may be due to changing shopping habits, with the jobs being replaced elsewhere such as online warehouse and delivery, but I can't see how that would be the case with Poundworld. Some of it must be due to a drop in consumer spending. Can we trust media pundits to give a true picture, though, or do we keep pretending austerity hasn't broken our economy?

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:08 pm 
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@TobyLatimer

Happy Birthday!


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:12 pm 
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TobyLatimer wrote:
refitman wrote:
Happy Birthday to Toby Latimer! :clap: :dance: :hug:

Thank you very much :D :D :D

Having a party later. I hope that the 30 year old Party 7 oversize tin of Watneys Red Barrel I found in the garage is still drinkable.


Dunno about "drinkable", but it probably won't taste much different from the day it was bought ;)


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:12 pm 
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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:17 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... five-years

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:19 pm 
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HindleA wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/11/uk-manufacturing-largest-monthly-fall-in-output-for-five-years


Unexpectedly . . .


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:27 pm 
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Unexpected is expected

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:32 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
TobyLatimer wrote:
refitman wrote:
Happy Birthday to Toby Latimer! :clap: :dance: :hug:

Thank you very much :D :D :D

Having a party later. I hope that the 30 year old Party 7 oversize tin of Watneys Red Barrel I found in the garage is still drinkable.


Dunno about "drinkable", but it probably won't taste much different from the day it was bought ;)


:lol: :lol: I seem to remember that it came in useful for slug control in the garden.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:35 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
@TobyLatimer

Happy Birthday!




Thank you PF


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:37 pm 
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HindleA wrote:



Proper craft beer that mate :lol!: It took a special skill to make that. Even more so to actually drink it.


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 12:47 pm 
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,


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:33 pm 
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ls#history

Guidance

Work Capability Assessment handbook: for healthcare professionals


Updated.

Stunned,but perhaps shouldn't be as to the guidance having to be put,base on non assumption of as yet undiscovered miracle cure I paraphrase but you get the point.I note the default of having to justify why not fit for work rather than neutral genuine assessment.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:37 pm 
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Just learned the other day that the government intend to complete their "rollout" of UC at the end of this year.

What could possibly go wrong??


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:37 pm 
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The appropriation of the right to work/participate as a means of denial for support that allows you to is sickening.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:40 pm 
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Having to comply with the most in need/vulnerable schtick lest used against you is the most callous stupidity imagineable.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:42 pm 
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So if there is learnt behaviour it is a function of that.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:46 pm 
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https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ssion=true
Quote:
Conservative Party deliberately uses 'dangerous' hatred of Muslims to win elections says top Tory Baroness Warsi
Tory Islamophobia goes "all the way to the top", ex-party chair Baroness Warsi declared - as she sensationally blamed Michael Gove

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:48 pm 
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44438846

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 3:58 pm 
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citizenJA wrote:
refitman wrote:
Happy Birthday to Toby Latimer! :clap: :dance: :hug:

Happy Birthday, Toby Latimer!
:rock:



Thank you :clap:


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 4:07 pm 
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HindleA wrote:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/work-capability-assessment-handbook-for-healthcare-professionals#history

Guidance
Work Capability Assessment handbook: for healthcare professionals

Updated.

Stunned,but perhaps shouldn't be as to the guidance having to be put,base on non assumption of as yet undiscovered miracle cure I paraphrase but you get the point.I note the default of having to justify why not fit for work rather than neutral genuine assessment.

Who the hell is MAXIMUS?
Centre for Health and Disability Assessments Operated by MAXIMUS

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ndbook.pdf

Does anyone's document reader find MAXIMUS when entered into your FIND or SEARCH function? Mine doesn't.
257 pages of handbook and the entity in charge of operations have their name on the document graphically, not within text

edited to add the following
Why does that matter?
Searching for a term, name or set of words within hundreds of pages is necessary for understanding obligations and rights


Last edited by citizenJA on Mon 11 Jun, 2018 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 4:14 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Just learned the other day that the government intend to complete their "rollout" of UC at the end of this year.

What could possibly go wrong??


Even if it all goes exactly to plan it's going to mean lots of people worse off or worse off than it they'd been able to claim current benefits, because of the austerity cuts.

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 4:14 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/conservative-party-deliberately-uses-dangerous-12681398.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Quote:
Conservative Party deliberately uses 'dangerous' hatred of Muslims to win elections says top Tory Baroness Warsi
Tory Islamophobia goes "all the way to the top", ex-party chair Baroness Warsi declared - as she sensationally blamed Michael Gove

I assume the Graun have dozens of reporters and columnists working on this as we speak? :roll:


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 6:10 pm 
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Oh dear...

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Conservative MP less than impressed by PM's appearance at 1922 committee: "I was expecting something more substantive. It was all motherhood and apple pie stuff about Brexit meaning Brexit. It's government by committee - like a parish council. I want to be led."

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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 6:40 pm 
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What's the betting that MP will still vote the government line later this week?

(he said cynically)


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 7:08 pm 
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Evening All

Busy day but a quick FTN catch up was all I needed. Classic mix of insight and humour ;-)


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PostPosted: Mon 11 Jun, 2018 7:12 pm 
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Byline Media have sent a legal letter to Banks & Wigmore over their "we wuz hacked" tweets:

https://twitter.com/Byline_Media/status ... 3588585472


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