Monday 18th June 2018

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PaulfromYorkshire
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Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Morning ;-)

So, our political debate boils down to a simple question, can Theresa May be trusted?

Emily Thornberry pushed this line strongly on Marr yesterday on the NHS funding. We'll believe it when we see it.

And I understand Jeremy Hunt basically appealed to "you can trust Theresa" at the end of a poor interview on BBC Breakfast (or whatever it's called).

I have to say, this doesn't look like fertile ground for May :twisted:
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

https://edition.independent.co.uk/editi ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On the Tory "rebels"
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by frog222 »

John McD was boringly pedestrian on Toady early on, but at least he didn't call for the Overthrow of Capitalism, while that hectoring Nick Robinson was switching-off AWFUL !

Fun-times when TreezaM discovers the magicmoneytree, 'promises' to spend more on the NHS than the Opposition, and labour emphasises their financial seriousness :-).

Good to hear that even the BBC quotes those, almost unanimous, who deny the existence of any Brexit Dividend .
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Morning all

I would imagine the IFS line of "There is no Brexit dividend" might well come up at PMQs...
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

frog222 wrote:John McD was boringly pedestrian on Toady early on, but at least he didn't call for the Overthrow of Capitalism, while that hectoring Nick Robinson was switching-off AWFUL !

Fun-times when TreezaM discovers the magicmoneytree, 'promises' to spend more on the NHS than the Opposition, and labour emphasises their financial seriousness :-).

Good to hear that even the BBC quotes those, almost unanimous, who deny the existence of any Brexit Dividend .
Yes my concerns yesterday were unfounded.

The mainstream media seem to have lost patience with May.

AK will say, wisely, that he'll believe it when he sees it, but she could be gone this week if Grieve et al follow through.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all

I would imagine the IFS line of "There is no Brexit dividend" might well come up at PMQs...
which will be followed I think by the 'Meaningful Vote' amendment coming back to the Commons - assuming the Lords pass it today, which seems certain.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

Starting to catch up with season 2 of The Handmaid's Tale doesn't help thinking about these things, but I imagine part of the 'no deal' plan-no-plan is to have to cope with the loss of medicines regulation and diagnostic/therapeutic isotopes by rushing through a deal with the US and/or Putin that will effectively end the core principles of the NHS on a TINA basis.
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

So there is no Brexit dividend after all, according to Hunt

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-dividend" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

jeremy-hunt-nhs-cash-boost-is-not-dependent-on-brexit-dividend
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Willow904
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:https://edition.independent.co.uk/editi ... index.html

On the Tory "rebels"
I came across this Twitter thread this morning and it makes some good points, especially about how Grieve's quote about bringing down the government being reframed against him, even though it's very clear he is merely indicating he understands what's at stake and not in any way saying he wishes to bring down the government. Quite the opposite, in fact. Which is why his taking a stand on the meaningful vote should have been taken more seriously by the government. The rebels gave May a chance to avoid a rebellion precisely because they are serious about this red line and she would have lost. No doubt May felt by buying some time she could wear away the resolve of some of the rebels, but her double cross has damaged her badly and it is now clear she can't be trusted to resist pressure for a no deal Brexit. We are relying on a handful of Tories to put country before party, in the face of an extremely hostile and frighteningly irresponsible right wing press. A lot is hanging on how this plays out.

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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Elsewhere...

Now the National Audit Office is sniffing around T-levels

https://feweek.co.uk/2018/06/15/now-the ... -t-levels/
T-levels will be watched for “potential for losses and fruitless payments” according to the comptroller-general at the National Audit Office.

Sir Amyas Morse has turned his eye towards the new post-16 technical qualifications after a rare ministerial direction published last month.

The education secretary Damian Hinds last month refused to delay the initial 2020 rollout of the upcoming technical qualifications despite a request from his permanent secretary, Jonathan Slater.

The NAO is automatically informed of all ministerial directions, and it advises the chair of Public Accounts Committee on whether action is necessary.
I went to a technical High when I passed the 11+ and can't say I was that enamoured about some of the subjects but it did allow me eventually to take O Level Accounts, Economics and Statistics; which then got me on A Level Accounts when I left school and went to college when I was working.

I think I approve of T Levels although have this slight worry that they'll be seen as slightly lower class A Levels.
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adam
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:So there is no Brexit dividend after all, according to Hunt reality
FIFY
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

RogerOThornhill wrote:I went to a technical High when I passed the 11+ and can't say I was that enamoured about some of the subjects but it did allow me eventually to take O Level Accounts, Economics and Statistics; which then got me on A Level Accounts when I left school and went to college when I was working.

I think I approve of T Levels although have this slight worry that they'll be seen as slightly lower class A Levels.
I spend a lot of time teaching Level 3 (A Level standard) vocational courses - BTECs and OCR Nationals and so on - and a little time teaching A Levels. I think they are, as a rule very good, detailed, thorough and demanding courses. Also, they have become a little more exam based in their latest iteration but they are fundamentally about soft-skills demanded in employment - keeping up, meeting deadlines, working through something day by day. If somebody passes an A level - especially in their latest version - then you know they've written six or seven essays in exam conditions at the end of two years and maybe done a single piece of coursework. If somebody passes a single-award BTEC national diploma then you know they've completed about 20 tasks to standard and to deadline over a two year period.

TECH levels extend this BTEC idea. The big problem they will have - which is there in the proto-versions out there now - is that they demand 'meaningful employer involvement' and even on a very limited basis at the moment we are finding this difficult. There is no funding for schools or for employers that I can see to enable this to happen, people are just supposed to step up and do it. So far we've bent the definition - our 'employer' was the drama department at school as we marketed their show for them - or called in favours from friends - a school theatre project came in and did a performance that we did a live mix multi-cam shoot of and then edited into a promotional video for them - but finding wide ranging involvement from a range of employers across a range of courses is going to be tough.
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adam
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

I would add that it's possible to do the vast majority of vocational courses at the moment as 'sit down, read this, write this' courses if you choose to. You might get nudged by the exam board to expand your ideas but you can get a student through by doing tables of definitions and examples, short pieces of written planning and Q&A written evaluations around whatever practical work is demanded, and I suspect the same will be true of the new courses.
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AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

The media certainly seem to have changed their tune a bit in the last 24 hours, granted.

Most of the Sunday papers read like Government press releases, not least the "left-liberal" Observer (which also excelled itself in sneering at Labour Live)

And the BBC was in full state broadcaster mode yesterday, not least with Marr being even more sycophantic than usual.

So I do wonder what has changed in the interim......
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PorFavor »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The media certainly seem to have changed their tune a bit in the last 24 hours, granted.

Most of the Sunday papers read like Government press releases, not least the "left-liberal" Observer (which also excelled itself in sneering at Labour Live)

And the BBC was in full state broadcaster mode yesterday, not least with Marr being even more sycophantic than usual.

So I do wonder what has changed in the interim......
Yes - yesterday I sat through Sarah Smith, who I usually think is one of the better BBC interviewers, seemingly asking Jonathan Ashworth to cost the Conservatives' spending! Bizarre.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

BCC cuts UK economic forecasts
Britain is facing its weakest growth since the financial crisis, as uncertainty over Brexit and fears of a global trade war hit confidence. So warns the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), which has just downgraded its growth forecast for the UK. It fears that consumer spending, business investment and trade are all weakening, leading to weak wage growth and stretched households. In short, Britain is trapped in a ‘torpor’, it warns, with growth expect to fall to just 1.3% this year. That would be the weakest performance since 2009 (down from a previous forecast of 1.4%).
And their forecasts are based on some kind of straightforward resolution to current trade war rumblings, and to us leaving the EU with some kind of decent deal.
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AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Willow904 wrote:No doubt May felt by buying some time she could wear away the resolve of some of the rebels, but her double cross has damaged her badly and it is now clear she can't be trusted to resist pressure for a no deal Brexit. We are relying on a handful of Tories to put country before party, in the face of an extremely hostile and frighteningly irresponsible right wing press. A lot is hanging on how this plays out.

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I still think that reality will ultimately prevent us crashing out without a deal, though maybe that's just (relatively) sunny optimism?
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by gilsey »

Hard to improve on this, from btl at the G.
LearningIsLife 2h ago

82
83
'Liar, liar, pants on fire!'... For the lawyers, that's 'alleged liar, alleged liar...'

.
(1) £20bn Brexit dividend for the NHS: Johnson Lies Never Die

On the Andrew Marr Show (video clip), May revived Johnson's rightly disparaged 'red bus lie', claiming we'll be able to spend £400m extra per week on the NHS--£18.2bn per year--because we'll get a Brexit dividend by not paying £20bn a year for our EU membership. In January, ABdP Johnson actually upped the ante upped the ante to £438 million per week--£22.8bn per year.

• As fact-checkers long clarified, we were never paying £20bn a year. While the full bill in 2015 was £19.1bn (£17bn in 2016), Thatcher's rebate came straight off the top. So, after that discount at the till, we only sent £250 million a week or £13bn a year.

• We received £4.5bn back from the EU for public sector spending, e.g. development of less well-off regions, agricultural & fisheries subsidies, and research programmes, so congrats Wales & Cornwall, farmers & fishermen, but the PM has promised to rob you to spend extra on the NHS. As for you researchers, continue your Brexodus.

• Any kind of Single Market access, whether for Northern Ireland (to avoid a land border) or whole of UK (to avoid that Irish Sea border) is not free-of-charge.

• May has been offering to pay billions to opt into EU clubs like Euratom, Galileo, European Medicines Agency (EMA), and even the European Defence Fund, part of a shared defence strategy that Cameron & May tried to block!

• The fine print says this wouldn't start for 5 years, when she most likely will not have been re-elected PM. May knows she can't hold a future government to it.

• She's not calculated the cost of replicating all those EU agencies back in the UK, covered by our current membership dues. Unless otherwise agreed, we fall out of those on 29 March 2019, but they've barely started work on the UK-branded ones.

• And never forget the economic damage of any Brexit, especially hard on Brexit heartlands, which the government's own (initially leaked) analysis showed would be many billions, still hitting us over the course of 15 years.

Has Johnson managed to snatch May's body? The reality is more likely to be increases in taxes and borrowing. And what about social care spending?

.
(2) Silencing the Meaningful Vote Rebellion: May vs Democracy, the Latest Chapter

May was caught out personally 'misleading' Grieve & the Tory rebels on the 'meaningful vote', to get them to back down after agreeing to key changes, forgetting how Ping-Pong works.

Today, the Lords get to review and make recommendations on still egregious text. Count on Lords Adonis & Hailsham (former Tory Cabinet minister Douglas Hogg who raised Grieve's original amendment in the House of Lords) to whack it straight back at May in the Commons.

If she continues to refuse, the Tory rebels--taking a page from Rees-Mogg's gang, but going one better--have threatened to actually bring down the government. 13 abstentions on a parliamentary no-confidence motion or 7 votes against her would erase May's slim coalition lead. Calm down, #Corbyn4PM fans ;-) , I'm betting May blinks first this time. She may well be giving DExEU's Brextremists enough rope to hang themselves, 'See, I tried your way...' Hmm...

.
Does May not realise the EU & the EU27 can see her? Does her mendacity encourage their (or the public's) trust? Perfidious Albion personified.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:The media certainly seem to have changed their tune a bit in the last 24 hours, granted.

Most of the Sunday papers read like Government press releases, not least the "left-liberal" Observer (which also excelled itself in sneering at Labour Live)

And the BBC was in full state broadcaster mode yesterday, not least with Marr being even more sycophantic than usual.

So I do wonder what has changed in the interim......
Realisation that it was to be funded by borrowing and higher taxes.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Though even poodle Marr made the PM look distinctly shifty over Chope's knighthood apparently :)
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PorFavor »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Though even poodle Marr made the PM look distinctly shifty over Chope's knighthood apparently :)
He didn't push it, though, allowing Theresa May to slide away into waffle.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Those pesky Local Authorities - who needs 'em in the brave new world of Academies...

Council steps in to save 24-pupil special school

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/council-steps ... al-school/
Unity Academy – Fenland in Wisbech, Cambridgeshire will now be moved to another site in the town as part of a development which will also house a new primary and secondary school.

Catering for just 24 pupils and operating from an industrial site, the special school had been ruled “not fit for purpose” in the spring by the TBAP multi-academy trust, which runs it. Pupils had been set for a move to a new site in St Neots.

However, plans to relocate the school in Wisbech were unanimously approved at a recent meeting of Cambridgeshire county council’s children and young people’s committee
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by GetYou »

Also from below the line at the G:
Are we seriously basing our entire national long term economic plan on "well, forecasts have been wrong before"?
I would laugh but I just despair at the moment.
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Willow904
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote:No doubt May felt by buying some time she could wear away the resolve of some of the rebels, but her double cross has damaged her badly and it is now clear she can't be trusted to resist pressure for a no deal Brexit. We are relying on a handful of Tories to put country before party, in the face of an extremely hostile and frighteningly irresponsible right wing press. A lot is hanging on how this plays out.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I still think that reality will ultimately prevent us crashing out without a deal, though maybe that's just (relatively) sunny optimism?
I'm not sure Grieve shares your optimism or why else try to amend the withdrawal bill to prevent a no deal exit. I'm not sure he's the kind of person that would risk bringing down his own government over something he believed would never happen. Unfortunately, the nature of the article 50 process makes it all too possible with such an incompetent PM with such unrealistic expectations of what can be negotiated.

Remember, for some, the aim is to destabilise and ultimately bring down the EU, a circumstance that places Brexit Britain, poised to slash standards and workers rights, in a stronger position that we are currently contemplating, which is a third country outside a big and successful single market with no choice but to meet EU rules and regulations if we want to export anything. There's a small but dangerous "do or die" element among the Brexit hardliners that really do believe in no deal Brexit and expect to profit from the chaos that ensues whatever happens, for which an orderly exit with a reasonable deal would not do as it is unlikely that any other EU country will be reaching for the exit if we accept the inferior deal to what we have now that the EU is likely to agree to.
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AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Tbh I don't think May is ideologically committed to a hard Brexit, she is just genuinely - almost pathologically - terrified of Rees-Mogg and the ERG brigade.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Tbh I don't think May is ideologically committed to a hard Brexit, she is just genuinely - almost pathologically - terrified of Rees-Mogg and the ERG brigade.
I do get this, but on the other hand she has had a very long time and an awful lot of chances to start to dial down her own rhetoric on what might be achieved and she has completely failed to do so. She has had many opportunities to face a little more clearly towards reality but she has steadfastly refused to do so. She is adamant that we are completely leaving the single market, and the custom's union, and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. I think regardless of her ideology, whatever that may be, she is practically committed to leaving on the hardest basis.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Well, looks like there is a test of that coming up. Grieve has apparently helped change the "meaningful vote" amendment going through the HoL to what May apparently promised him and the other "rebels" last week - but then reneged upon (or allowed Davis to do so, same thing really)

If this comes to pass, it will put her on the spot as never before.......
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

King's Fund initial response to NHS announcements
Commenting on the announcement of new funding for the NHS, Chris Ham, Chief Executive of The King’s Fund, said:

‘The Prime Minister has administered a welcome shot in the arm that will get the NHS back on its feet but not provided the long term cure that would restore it to full health.

‘Jeremy Hunt and Simon Stevens have secured the best deal they could in the circumstances even though it falls short of the 4 per cent annual increases we argued are needed. Hard choices lie ahead and it will be difficult to reduce financial deficits among NHS providers, get back on track in delivering national waiting time standards and bring about further improvements in services like cancer care, mental health and general practice. It will also be challenging to sustain increases in productivity which have generally outpaced the economy in recent years.

‘It is essential that some of the extra funding is ring-fenced to support new ways of providing integrated care to improve patient experience and take pressure off hospitals. More detail is also needed on what it means for key areas of spending that fall outside NHS England’s budget such as public health, capital investment and staff training.

‘While we welcome the Prime Minister’s assurance that future decisions about social care spending will not add to pressures on the NHS, this hardly suggests an ambitious statement of intent. The forthcoming social care green paper must deliver on the Prime Minister’s promise to act where others have failed to lead by delivering substantial and wide-ranging reform.

‘We welcome the commitment to publish a long term plan for the NHS later this year. This must also go hand-in-hand with a comprehensive strategy to tackle the crisis facing the health and care workforce.'
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

May's NHS speech -
But, for someone aged 80, 10 days of bed rest in hospital has the same affect as 10 years of ageing, she says.
What?
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PorFavor »

adam wrote:May's NHS speech -
But, for someone aged 80, 10 days of bed rest in hospital has the same affect as 10 years of ageing, she says.
What?
It's known in medical circles as RvW (Rip van Winkle) syndrome.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

Again
May says the 10-year plan for the NHS must involve a comprehensive plan for the workforce. The workforce needs to be more flexible, she says.
I bet she does.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

adam wrote:May's NHS speech -
But, for someone aged 80, 10 days of bed rest in hospital has the same affect as 10 years of ageing, she says.
What?
It doesn't take much time confined to bed for elderly people to start losing muscle mass, but that does sound a bit over the top. :?
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adam
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by adam »

PorFavor wrote:
adam wrote:May's NHS speech -
But, for someone aged 80, 10 days of bed rest in hospital has the same affect as 10 years of ageing, she says.
What?
It's known in medical circles as RvW (Rip van Winkle) syndrome.
Back when we were in Europe it would have been Monsieur Valdemar Syndrome
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

adam wrote:Again
May says the 10-year plan for the NHS must involve a comprehensive plan for the workforce. The workforce needs to be more flexible, she says.
I bet she does.
What, like being asked one day to swap shifts and work the next even though shifts were supposed to be agreed 6 weeks in advance?

Oh, OK...
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by refitman »

Actually good from Blair:
The prime minister said today that nearly half of Labour’s record increase in investment in the NHS during the last Labour government was not spent on patients. I simply don’t know what she means by that. But if the implication is that, because significant investment went on increased numbers of staff, including nurses and doctors, better pay and a huge uplift in hospital building and NHS facilities, this is not money spent on patients, it shows how little this government understands the NHS and its challenges.

This investment was absolutely necessary to deliver the significant cuts we saw in waiting lists and waiting times and the dramatically improved results in cancer and cardiac care the new Labour government oversaw, resulting in some of the highest patient satisfaction levels ever seen. All of which, of course, have slid into reverse under this Conservative government.

This programme of investment and reform was supported by a clear and specific increase in national insurance – unlike the plans announced today which appear to be dependent on mystery tax increases and a mythical Brexit dividend the IFS confirms cannot fund the extra spending.
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Laura Kuenssberg
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
After PM's speech with no wifi here's short version - 1. NHS getting a lot of extra £££ in exchange for reform 2. PM won't say who specifically is going to pay 3. No 10 stands by claim that Brexit dividend can be source of some of £££, uncertain at best, misleading at worst
1:57 pm · 18 Jun 2018
Money in exchange for reform? Are they serious? After Lansley's top down reorganisation they insisted was absolutely necessary to "save" the NHS (from record satisfaction rates) and secure it for the future? They think we have the memory of gnats!!! :fire:
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Ah great, exactly what the health service needs - more "reform" :roll:
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by HindleA »

https://www.england.nhs.uk/blog/jane-cummings-32/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

Ah - "in people over 80" - I think the Theresa May quote is missing the all important bit of context that helps it make sense!

Edit: I just re-read the May quote and it did say people over 80. I completely missed that. How odd. I think I must assume May doesn't make sense now whatever she says because she so rarely does.
Last edited by Willow904 on Mon 18 Jun, 2018 3:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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HindleA
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by HindleA »

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/gove ... conditions" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Press release

Government to end unnecessary PIP reviews for people with most severe health conditions.


That'll be lifetime/indefinite award then
HindleA
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by HindleA »

Returning at a snails pace
HindleA
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by HindleA »

Which will over time make up a higher percentage of total,so for instance a stupid/misanthropic Government can bemoan the figure,is say twenty years.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Has anyone noticed Priti Patel extolling the advantages of Brexit btw?

Links please ;-)
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

In fact I'm wondering about starting a whole new FTN thread titled 'Priti Patel extols the benefits of Brexit', just so we don't clog up the main Daily Politics pages.
HindleA
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by HindleA »

Though indefinite were always "reviewable".
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Willow904
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

HindleA wrote:Though indefinite were always "reviewable".
Is this a real change then? A proper climbdown?
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Willow904
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by Willow904 »

BBC Parliament
@BBCParliament
Lords voting now on Viscount Hailsham's amendment on giving Parliament a 'meaningful vote' on the government's Brexit negotiations. Result will be in about 20 mins - it's a packed House.
5:53 pm · 18 Jun 2018
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Ian Dunt

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1m
1 minute ago


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Lords defeat govt and back Grieve meaningful vote: 354 votes to 235.
:clap:
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
PorFavor
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PorFavor »

Peers defeat government on Brexit 'meaningful vote' with increased majority

Peers have voted for the new “meaningful vote” amendment by 354 votes to 235 - a majority of 119. (Politics Live, Guardian)
PorFavor
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Re: Monday 18th June 2018

Post by PorFavor »

RogerOThornhill wrote:
Ian Dunt

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Lords defeat govt and back Grieve meaningful vote: 354 votes to 235.
:clap:
Oh. It's you again . . .

Snap!


Edited to add - PTO
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