FlyTheNest

Morning

http://www.social-policy.org.uk/50-for- ... ld-policy/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No 3: Why the two-child policy is the worst social security policy ever

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... it-reality" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Monday's crace

Morning all.

Katy Hayward
‏@hayward_katy
8m
8 minutes ago


More
Katy Hayward Retweeted Laura Kuenssberg
Ever-increasing hints of May's strategy for a team-building Chequers challenge.

The Cabinet factions are to come up with a '3rd way' customs plan themselves, using lollipop sticks, crepe paper, baler twine and a jumbo pritt stick.

Probably not too far from the truth.

From last night

1) I still think it makes more sense to say 'to eat your cake and have it' than the other way round
2) "Brexit is 'a buzzy thing'.

The TaxDodgersAlliance's Chloe Westley has written some poetry...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Katy Hayward
‏@hayward_katy
8m
8 minutes ago


More
Katy Hayward Retweeted Laura Kuenssberg
Ever-increasing hints of May's strategy for a team-building Chequers challenge.

The Cabinet factions are to come up with a '3rd way' customs plan themselves, using lollipop sticks, crepe paper, baler twine and a jumbo pritt stick.

Probably not too far from the truth.

downthread -- "" perhaps a paintball challenge between the two warring Cabinet factions, with the Remainers secretly given live ammo in a last-minute switcheroo? ""

High tide ! Off to rinse away all thoughts of bre**t

The “appalling treatment” of thousands of Windrush victims shows that the Home Office has become a callous and hostile institution in need of “root and branch reform”, a damning report from the home affairs select committee has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... sh-scandal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ministers are drastically off course on ensuring as many fuel-poor homes – those which people cannot afford to keep adequately heated – as possible are upgraded to energy efficiency band C by 2030 in England, according to the IPPR.
The target will not be met by 2091 at the earliest, a new report by the thinktank found.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... efficiency" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Do the papers actually ask the govt for a statement? They could just write it themselves.

A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “We don’t want anyone to live in fuel poverty. That’s why we’re tackling the root causes by investing £6bn in improving energy efficiency in some of the UK’s poorest homes over the next 10 years.”

These are the questions the British Chamber of Commerce is asking this morning - the only ones they say they have had some progress on I have underlined, the rest say no progress. I have suggested some answers based on where things seem to be now.

• Will I be able to hire EU nationals in future – and under what conditions? Don't know. Don't know.
  Will business travel between the UK and the EU involve further administration, costs or visas? Yes.
  Will my business be able to move skilled staff members between the UK and the EU in future? No, not as at present.
  Will UK firms and institutions be able to participate in European R&D projects after 2020? No.
  Will UK projects be eligible for support from the EIB after 2020? No.
  How will the UK replacement for EU Funds work, and how can my company access opportunities? Don't know. Don't know.
  Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues? Yes. Don't know.
  Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU Member State where my firm has clients? Yes.
  Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow? Is the UK government going to charge businesses for the creation of new regulatory agencies in the UK? Don't know. Don't know. Probably.
  Will conformity assessments on products conducted by a UK body will continue to be sufficient for the product to be sold on the EU market? No.
  What dispute resolution and means of redress will be available to my business in the future? Don't know.
  What industrial standards will my firm need to comply with in the future, and will the UK stick with the European model that we have strongly influenced? Not sure. Probably not.
  Will my business have to pay mobile roaming charges in the EU after Brexit? Yes.
  Will my business continue to be able to hold and transfer data and personal information without any interruptions after we have left the EU? No.
  Will I be able to continue trading without tariffs with the EU in the future? No.
  What rules of origin will I need to comply with once the UK has left the EU? Will I be able to count UK and EU content as single origin, both when trading with the EU and with third countries? Don't know. No.
  Will my company still have access to markets on the same terms as now once we have left the European Union? No.
  How will my business be able to contribute directly to future trade negotiations? No.
  Will I still be able to fly people and/or goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit day – or could travel be disrupted? Not as now - yes to disruption.
  Will my goods be subject to new customs rules, procedures and inspections at the UK or EU border in future? Could my shipments be held up and delayed? Yes. Yes.
  Will there be new health or safety-related inspections at the UK-EU border that my company will need to deal with? Yes.
  Will I need to do additional customs-related paperwork, including import and export declarations, when trading with the EU? Yes.
  Will my business be able to become a ‘trusted trader’ to move quickly through borders in future – and what will the process be? Don't know. Don't know.
  What, if any, procedures will my company face trading cross-border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland? Don't know.

I have one for the BCC - why didn't you loudly and repeatedly demand answers to these questions during the referendum campaign?

Back to Brexit, on the G there's a long list of detailed questions from the British Chambers of commerce, eg

IMPORT VAT

Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues?

SERVICES VAT

Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU member state where my firm has clients?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


This is the level of detail businesses need and the govt hasn't even got the big picture straight.

Snap!

adam wrote: I have one for the BCC - why didn't you loudly and repeatedly demand answers to these questions during the referendum campaign?

I read that first as the BBC but the same could apply.

gilsey wrote:Snap!

My favourite one is ...

Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow?

Who knows. But it - whatever it is - is quite likely to come in 9 months.

Anyway, the whole thing confirms what I was saying before the referendum - never mind the principles, leaving the EU is impossible.

gilsey wrote:Any way, the whole thing confirms what I was saying before the referendum - never mind the principles, leaving the EU is impossible.

Some idle speculation...

We don't know what will happen but I think we need to guard carefully against the idea that they can't just crash us out because that would be ridiculous and catastrophic. Blaming public spending for the 2008 crash was ridiculous and catastrophic but that didn't stop them.

Does it matter that there's probably - very probably indeed - a significant majority in parliament to make things worse rather than to make things much much much worse? I'm not sure it does. Previous occasions suggest that when push comes to shove the more reasonable conservatives (a comment made with very deliberate delivery and to be heard in context) will fold but the extremists will force the issue.

I suspect this won't happen this week - the only thing she's any good at is kicking the can down the road and promoting plans that have already been comprehensively written off by the EU - but if we finally reach a point when May declares that the only way forward is something very close to Norway, it's entirely possible that the ERG will trigger a contest.

If they do, the question really is whether they are organised enough to get a candidate through to the final two. Given that it's very very likely that May will stand there are unlikely to be other 'more reasonable' (again...) candidates, and there's a very good chance that they will.

There is then a very good chance that the conservative party in the country will choose the more eurosceptic over the less.

And then we will have a prime minister leading a government determined to take us out with no deal unless the EU bend completely unfeasibly to our will. They won't command the support of parliament or even of their own party. But will their party do anything about it? Will the conservative back benches vote the conservative government down? I won't believe it unless or until it happens.

These aren't questions about what might be achievable within the current negotiations. They are questions about how ruthless the nutcases are and how compliant the 'more reasonable' tories might be in the face of them.

adam wrote:From last night

1) I still think it makes more sense to say 'to eat your cake and have it' than the other way round
2) "Brexit is 'a buzzy thing'.

Putting the horse before the cart.

Breggzit.

gilsey wrote:

adam wrote: I have one for the BCC - why didn't you loudly and repeatedly demand answers to these questions during the referendum campaign?

I read that first as the BBC but the same could apply.

It most certainly could

The ever more pervasive idea that "balance" means giving equal prominence to truth and falsehood has probably damaged the Beeb more than any overt political bias.

adam wrote: Some idle speculation... (snip)

Looking at the rules again I think I'm wrong on the detail here - I think May just faces a Yes/No confidence vote if letters to the 1922 committee trigger one, and we only move on to a contest if she loses the confidence vote (or feels damaged by it and resigns). So the question instead becomes whether the non-ERG tories can keep the extreme eurosceptics out of the final vote.

adam wrote:

adam wrote: Some idle speculation... (snip)

Looking at the rules again I think I'm wrong on the detail here - I think May just faces a Yes/No confidence vote if letters to the 1922 committee trigger one, and we only move on to a contest if she loses the confidence vote (or feels damaged by it and resigns). So the question instead becomes whether the non-ERG tories can keep the extreme eurosceptics out of the final vote.

And the answer to that is *probably* yes, certainly if JRM (disliked by many of his fellow Tory MPs) indeed turns out to be the ERG standard bearer.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

adam wrote:

adam wrote: Some idle speculation... (snip)

Looking at the rules again I think I'm wrong on the detail here - I think May just faces a Yes/No confidence vote if letters to the 1922 committee trigger one, and we only move on to a contest if she loses the confidence vote (or feels damaged by it and resigns). So the question instead becomes whether the non-ERG tories can keep the extreme eurosceptics out of the final vote.

And the answer to that is *probably* yes, certainly if JRM (disliked by many of his fellow Tory MPs) indeed turns out to be the ERG standard bearer.

I take your point but I don't think it's clearcut at all. He would have somewhere between 40 and 50 votes if he just had the ERG folk and he'd probably do better than that. It would depend how much of a cat fight it became and who the leader of the field was - because a number of the rest of them come with quite a bit of baggage too. This is the party that put Andrea Leadsome in the final two last time. Gove went out with 48 votes but there are 13 fewer tory MPs over all now.

Leadsom is *slightly* less extreme than the ERG folk though?

I have little doubt there would be a concerted attempt to keep them off the final 2 offered to the members, at least.

I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.

I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.

"Burden","unsustainable","unfair" "beholden to the taxpayer" "non spare rooms for care subject to a penalty""lifestyle choice of not being sufficiently terminally ill""main reason for the deficit""on x benefit for x years sitting at home" ad infinitum Impact asssessments that clearly state pernicious effects repeatedly found to be discriminatory


"Stop saying it is a hostile environment"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-12838071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The main route out of created poverty is work when not expected to and reduction in facillitation.Previous thirty years ignored.

If penalised you are obviously not sufficiently needy/pathetic,yet.

https://www.cqc.org.uk/publications/the ... re-england" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Beyond barriers: how older people move between health and care in England

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new- ... le-housing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Press release
New fund launched to increase community-led affordable housing
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... prospectus" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.

I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.

I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... avid-behan" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

adam wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.

I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.

I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.

But its not just about her, but also about who can pressure the PM more effectively as crunch time draws near.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

adam wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.

I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.

I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.

But its not just about her, but also about who can pressure the PM more effectively as crunch time draws near.

True.

Is anyone here following the Q & A with Crawford Falconer, the government’s chief trade negotiation adviser? It's over at Politics Live, Guardian. And it's depressing\funny depending on your mood.

adam wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.

I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.

I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.

She doesn't!

@PF yeah no score as yet

Robert Peston's best guess at Theresa May's thinking:

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Needless to say it's still a variety of Brexit that has already been rejected but Peston is suggesting that May could get the ultras to agree to her negotiating gambit by making the threat that parliament will otherwise impose EEA on them (though Corbyn's stance weakens her hand a little on that, I would have thought). What she intends when the EU rejects this "Swiss" option is unclear.

https://businessdisabilityforum.org.uk/ ... %20Gap.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"The three settings outlined the Improving Lives strategy are not moving together. Business (in terms of employment) moves relatively quickly, but NHS practice and services have not kept up with how working practices and demands are changing (see section 3.3.1 above and footnote 3). We have also heard from people who are struggling to navigate workplace barriers (particular after recently returning to work) whilst experiencing challenges in the transition from DLA to PIP, which has increased stress and anxiety and decreased the energy available to return build up hours during a phased return to work. As per section 3.3.2 above, transport also needs to be recognised as pivotal to the successful delivery of the overall Improving Lives strategy. " The rogue DWP as ever undermining

Crace -- philip-hammond-comes-clean-on-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -on-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Footie ?

By Christ, that was tough to watch...

RogerOThornhill wrote:By Christ, that was tough to watch...

No watching, but I listened on Five !

Just discovered two Bushmills bottles containing a dark liquid .

Last year’s sloe gin .

Cheers !

Just about to watch..