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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 6:03 am 
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Morning all.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 6:36 am 
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Finally confirmation of ending the freeze.There was an in effect cut in any case by changing the uprating method.I think they should retain UC for the six people and a dog called Bert,if still applicable,given they are still the evidence of success the Government relies on.Reserving judgement on the year long review.Hope health /social care intrinsic links are acknowledged,restored and boosted with the aim of emancipation rather than State given/controlled.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 6:58 am 
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Would be glorious appropriation if a Department of Welfare and Social Security.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 8:25 am 
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Morning all.

Off to library but a quick comment - new money if Rayner's proposals for councils to take a bigger role in education. Most have been so hollowed out over the past few years from cuts by the DfE that they can barely fulfil their statutory duties that they have now let alone take on new ones.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 8:47 am 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
Morning all.

Off to library but a quick comment - new money if Rayner's proposals for councils to take a bigger role in education. Most have been so hollowed out over the past few years from cuts by the DfE that they can barely fulfil their statutory duties that they have now let alone take on new ones.


A large number of primary schools are still LA controlled so councils shouldn't be past the point of no return regarding expertise and structures but funding will be important, as you say. I think the main thing is allowing councils to build new schools where they are needed and allowing them to take back failing academies if they are best placed to do that. As long as academies are properly audited and properly regulated there is no reason not to continue with them, but as long as councils are responsible for ensuring overall provision it's essential they have more control and input than they do now. As we've seen with the railways, when provision becomes fragmented who is ultimately responsible for providing a service becomes obscured and you end up in a place where no one has the overall control necessary to ensure the implementation of a seamless service.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 8:52 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
A large number of primary schools are still LA controlled so councils shouldn't be past the point of no return regarding expertise and structures but funding will be important, as you say. I think the main thing is allowing councils to build new schools where they are needed and allowing them to take back failing academies if they are best placed to do that. As long as academies are properly audited and properly regulated there is no reason not to continue with them, but as long as councils are responsible for ensuring overall provision it's essential they have more control and input than they do now. As we've seen with the railways, when provision becomes fragmented who is ultimately responsible for providing a service becomes obscured and you end up in a place where no one has the overall control necessary to ensure the implementation of a seamless service.


I don't know how true it is nationally but around these parts (Wolvo) despite a lot of secondaries becoming academies they have tended to group together around local authority services. The model here has tended to be that there is either a lead school that builds a local Multi-Academy Trust (which is what we've done - initially because we were asked by the authority to step in and stop another LA school being taken over by either a national chain or a regional 'issue' - cough thomas telford cough) or schools have become academies in partnership with Wolverhampton University working quietly in partnership with the LA. A lot of LA services and procedures have continued - all of the schools sign up to LA-wide policies on admissions, exclusions and so on. It's certainly the case that all of the schools continue to buy in to the LEA services on libraries, technology, safeguarding and so on. I think it may be the case more generally that LEAs have quietly carried on doing various aspects of their jobs.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 8:52 am 
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The headline on AS blog
McDonnell says staying in EU will not be option if Labour holds second Brexit referendum - Politics live

What he actually said
Q: So you are not promising the people the option of staying in.

McDonnell says parliament would decide the question.

McDonnell suggests staying in the EU would not be an option in any second referendum staged by Labour.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 8:58 am 
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ain-option

Quote:
McDonnell: new Brexit referendum should not include remain option
Shadow chancellor says he would back second referendum but only if it is a ‘vote on the deal itself’


Not so long ago Labour (well, Keir Starmer at any rate) was arguing that a similar choice May was offering parliament of accepting the negotiated deal or crashing out with no deal didn't constitute a meaningful vote. And they were right.

This is an insult to remain supporting Labour members, an absolute joke. There was nothing wrong with Labour's position of not calling for a referendum (it's hard to see how such a referendum would come about logistically within the current timetable anyway) but not ruling one out. They would have been wise to stick to that position, imo.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 9:35 am 
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gilsey wrote:
The headline on AS blog
McDonnell says staying in EU will not be option if Labour holds second Brexit referendum - Politics live

What he actually said
Q: So you are not promising the people the option of staying in.

McDonnell says parliament would decide the question.

McDonnell suggests staying in the EU would not be an option in any second referendum staged by Labour.


Quote:
Asked about the issue on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, McDonnell said: “If we don’t get a general election then yes, we’ll go for a people’s vote.”

Quizzed about what options should be part of a second referendum question, he said: “My view at the moment is that parliament will decide what will be on that ballot paper. We’ll be arguing that it should be a vote on the deal itself, and then enable us to go back and do the negotiations.”


This is not the "people's vote" that Labour members are asking for, partly because the whole process is so confusing. McDonnell is talking about a vote on the withdrawal deal. Yes, he's saying let's re-negotiate rather than just leave with no deal, but how can you have a referendum between a deal or something else, maybe, but we can't tell you what it will be yet? And what things are Labour expecting to be able to change? An extra £10bn off the divorce bill? Slightly better rights for EU citizens? Something better for Ireland than Ireland and the EU are already demanding?

A further referendum is a distraction. Those calling for one would do better to spend their time arguing for a soft Brexit because both main parties are so in thrall to their leave voters, neither are going to back anything which might keep us in the EU. The Labour leadership have made their commitment to leave pretty clear and throwing these tiny, disingenuous bones to remain supporters is not helpful. They must know those seeking a further referendum are looking for a vote on our future relationship, not on the divorce bill. Labour need to help people understand that the way article 50 works makes it very hard to hold a referendum on that before we leave. The EU is only likely to grant an extension for us to hold a referendum if it is on something substantial, like between accepting the deal of remain. The chances they will extend to allow us to ask if we should keep asking for better terms is pretty slim. From this perspective McDonnell is right, only a general election is likely to open up that avenue but even then it can't be guaranteed.

This is the trap the Tories have set the Labour leadership over their questions of whether they support a referendum and they've stepped into it. I have been critical of Labour sitting on the fence re soft/hard Brexit but the question of further referendums, when there is no obvious time to have one or what on, is one area they should have stuck to the fence.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 9:53 am 
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Good piece by Jim Gallagher of Glasgow University on the LSE Brexit Blog

May’s Brexit luck ran out at Westminster this autumn

Quote:
As the deadline nears, the noise increases and the Brexit options get starker. Theresa May’s strategy of kicking the can down the road, fudging the long-term relationship with the EU in the hope of maintaining Conservative party unity – which I have explained before – might just work, but is probably going to fail. The options are then chaos, or another vote. Here is why, how it is all likely to play out, and what it might mean.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:04 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
I have been critical of Labour sitting on the fence re soft/hard Brexit but the question of further referendums, when there is no obvious time to have one or what on, is one area they should have stuck to the fence.

Don't disagree but they really are on a hiding to nothing either way now.

I can't see how the people's vote can work anyway, if Parliament continues to be split, how can it be conclusive?
I can see how a second ref could come about if the govt (of whichever stripe) had a majority in Parl for a position but felt it needed ratification, but otherwise it would be a shitshow.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:09 am 
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@Willow

I agree with much you say and in particular with your assertion that "a further referendum is a distraction".

I also agree that most of those campaigning for a People's Vote are imagining Remain as an option.

But surely it would be conceivable to have a Referendum that was basically do you support May's deal or not? Yes or No?

This would be very interesting, and fraught with risk, because it would require unity around Soft Brexit and Remain that has been almost completely absent.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:10 am 
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I'm sure we can agree that Starmer has his head in his hands.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:13 am 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
@Willow

I agree with much you say and in particular with your assertion that "a further referendum is a distraction".

I also agree that most of those campaigning for a People's Vote are imagining Remain as an option.

But surely it would be conceivable to have a Referendum that was basically do you support May's deal or not? Yes or No?

This would be very interesting, and fraught with risk, because it would require unity around Soft Brexit and Remain that has been almost completely absent.


That goes back to the idea that it is impossible to reconsider the referendum result now that we know what it will actually mean, and I don't think that makes any sense. I've always thought we need to be slow to ignore it, but if we are going to give people the opportunity to have another say it makes no sense to say 'this terrible terrible deal or a catastrophic no deal at all'.

It might conceivably work if the EU were to say out loud what is quietly there in the background - Norway, Canada or no deal. That is a choice of sorts, even if compared to now it is a choice between bad, absolutely terrible and even worse. Yes or no to whatever pathetic excuse for a deal May comes up with (which may well be nothing than a political declaration that this is what everyone would like to happen somehow in the future) doesn't really mean anything.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:20 am 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
most of those campaigning for a People's Vote are imagining Remain as an option.

That's why they don't really care about the problem Willow foresees, that we won't know what the deal is, we'll only have the 'political declaration'.

Suppose we had the People's Vote, it's inconclusive and it leads to a GE and a Labour govt who then negotiate a different deal?

Aaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:23 am 
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Surely all Labour's thoughts on Brexit are aimed at parliamentary arithmetic if May honours the "meaningful vote" on her deal.

Labour needs to have a position that all it's own MPs can and will vote for and that will encourage the Tory rebels to do the right thing. Those rebels are highly unlikely to bring down the Government, but would love a People's Vote on the deal.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:25 am 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Surely all Labour's thoughts on Brexit are aimed at parliamentary arithmetic if May honours the "meaningful vote" on her deal. <snip>


Which kind of means, as Willow said above, that they've walked into a conservative trap, committing to something that just isn't what people were looking for and will upset and alienate people with opinions on all sides.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:29 am 
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adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Surely all Labour's thoughts on Brexit are aimed at parliamentary arithmetic if May honours the "meaningful vote" on her deal. <snip>


Which kind of means, as Willow said above, that they've walked into a conservative trap, committing to something that just isn't what people were looking for and will upset and alienate people with opinions on all sides.

I only disagree to the extent that describing it as a conservative trap attributes to the tories a level of competence that's surely unwarranted.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:34 am 
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They haven't "committed" to anything yet.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:36 am 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
They haven't "committed" to anything yet.

That's true. But the political weather they are making by headlining this at their conference - or at the very least by allowing the press to headline this as one issue from their conference - has something of that effect.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:39 am 
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Well that's an inevitable consequence of kite flying at a party conference. I'm not losing too much sleep over it, personally.

There is still a very high probability that events will render any "decisions" made both this week and next redundant in any case.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 10:48 am 
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adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Surely all Labour's thoughts on Brexit are aimed at parliamentary arithmetic if May honours the "meaningful vote" on her deal. <snip>


Which kind of means, as Willow said above, that they've walked into a conservative trap, committing to something that just isn't what people were looking for and will upset and alienate people with opinions on all sides.

I'm just trying to think through what might actually happen in the House during the meaningful vote and how the Tory rebels can be offered a way forward. This is unlikely to be through voting down the Deal as such, because that would probably provoke a General Election. But a vote FOR the deal as long as there is a Referendum on it is another matter.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 11:02 am 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Surely all Labour's thoughts on Brexit are aimed at parliamentary arithmetic if May honours the "meaningful vote" on her deal.

Labour needs to have a position that all it's own MPs can and will vote for and that will encourage the Tory rebels to do the right thing. Those rebels are highly unlikely to bring down the Government, but would love a People's Vote on the deal.


Unfortunately the meaningful bit of the meaningful vote wasn't locked in because Grieve fluffed it. Reject the deal and you risk crashing out with no deal. It would in some ways be better for Labour if May fails to get a deal, there is potential for them to benefit from the fallout without being a party to creating the chaos. Remaining in the EU also becomes marginally more possible if there is no exit deal on offer. Of course, not getting a deal could also result in us ending up leaving without one, so I'm not exactly rooting for one, but it at least puts the responsibility for what happens next firmly back on the party that got us into this mess.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 11:52 am 
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Bit odd to see Margaret Beckett so warmly applauding John McDonnell's Clause IV references.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 11:55 am 
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PorFavor wrote:
Bit odd to see Margaret Beckett so warmly applauding John McDonnell's Clause IV references.


Still an old leftie at heart?


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 11:59 am 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Bit odd to see Margaret Beckett so warmly applauding John McDonnell's Clause IV references.


Still an old leftie at heart?


I'm rather ambivalent about Margaret Beckett. I thought she did quite a good job after John Smith's death. And compared (later) to Harriet Harman in similar situations . . .


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 12:05 pm 
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rty-splits

Quote:
Reforms to Labour leadership elections and the selection process for would-be MPs have been supported by delegates despite splits between constituency parties and unions.

Changes to the leadership contest rules were approved by 63.9% to 36.1% while changes to the candidate selection process for Westminster elections were approved by 65.3% to 34.7%.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 12:08 pm 
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There were 10 such motions in all, the other 8 were approved by 98-99% of delegates. Speaks for itself really.

Next year's conference will have an NEC that is more sympathetic to automatic reselection - no surprise if it is then back on the agenda.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 3:20 pm 
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adam wrote:
Good piece by Jim Gallagher of Glasgow University on the LSE Brexit Blog

May’s Brexit luck ran out at Westminster this autumn

Quote:
As the deadline nears, the noise increases and the Brexit options get starker. Theresa May’s strategy of kicking the can down the road, fudging the long-term relationship with the EU in the hope of maintaining Conservative party unity – which I have explained before – might just work, but is probably going to fail. The options are then chaos, or another vote. Here is why, how it is all likely to play out, and what it might mean.


I've just read this and it is good on where we're at, but I'm not sure it offers much insight into what May is going to do now she's finally run out of road! Her policy appears to be procrastination......and that's it!

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 3:23 pm 
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Three hours and twelve minutes!


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 3:29 pm 
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Rod Rosenstein reportedly about to be sacked. Things are starting to reach boiling point in the Mueller investigation, it seems.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 3:52 pm 
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Quote:
Government publishes latest set of no deal Brexit planning papers

The government has published its latest set of no deal Brexit planning papers.

They are all here, on the gov.uk website, alongside the papers published on the first two release days.
(Politics Live, Guardian)


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 4:15 pm 
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This is unspeakably bad from Julia Hartley-Brewer

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1044158615786008581


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 4:19 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
Rod Rosenstein reportedly about to be sacked. Things are starting to reach boiling point in the Mueller investigation, it seems.

Looming chaos all round then ! I notice the bbc is now relying on the IEA for quotes, as a 'change' from JR-M...
Today's Crace -- "As if to prove he really was as stupid as he sounded, Singham (IEA)went on to suggest that post-Brexit, the UK might do some individual trade deals with separate EU countries. He concluded by saying that deregulation was the way forward – British workers deserved the same rights to be crushed to death by collapsing buildings as their counterparts in Bangladesh – and that Brexit could make the whole world about 10% richer. After several decades in which everyone was at least 10% poorer"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... for-idiocy

Thanks to all for posts so far :-)


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 4:36 pm 
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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
This is unspeakably bad from Julia Hartley-Brewer

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1044158615786008581


In other words, totally normal?

I am old enough to remember when she was actually a leftie - think Allison Pearson, but in even more exaggerated form.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 5:05 pm 
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Evening, all


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 5:22 pm 
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Quote:
Jack Maidment

@jrmaidment

John McDonnell has sort of clarified his second Brexit vote comments.
He said: "Keir is right. We are keeping all the options on the table."
Asked if that included Remain: "...we are saying respect the past referendum and I just tell you we have to be careful what we wish for."
4:56 PM - Sep 24, 2018 (Politics Live, Guardian)


Actually, I think the "be careful what we wish for" bit is quite true. The whole "Brexit" issue is now in vicious circle territory. The possibilities (another referendum and possible outcomes\General Election and possible outcomes\Labour winning and possible outcome on a deal (which could itself lead to the need, let alone a call, for another referendum - so perhaps having one sooner rather than later is not sensible)) are so convoluted and hostage to fortune that it's impossible for me (or anyone else?) to plot a safe path.

Sorry for the rather rambling post. Perm any one from . . .



Edited for typos


Last edited by PorFavor on Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 5:40 pm 
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Two items on the BBC R4 radio today reminded me of the gulf between here and England --

Blood contamination Inquiry — begins ! Action here iirc in 1999.
( David Owen on R4 — Civil Service documents almost all destroyed , by whom ? )

"LOBO loans", £15BN cheat by the banks on LA’s , cases pending . Action here since 2010, now nearly resolved, but at great cost to govt and LA’S.

Interestingly Barclays was one of the major perps here too ! €3mn of which just down the road —

http://s0.libe.com/fremen/maps/carte-em ... es-0036617

PF not too rambling !


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 5:54 pm 
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If rather inaccurate on the personal details front . . .


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 6:15 pm 
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Willow904 wrote:
Rod Rosenstein reportedly about to be sacked. Things are starting to reach boiling point in the Mueller investigation, it seems.


Still waiting........


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:00 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
Quote:
Jack Maidment

@jrmaidment

John McDonnell has sort of clarified his second Brexit vote comments.
He said: "Keir is right. We are keeping all the options on the table."
Asked if that included Remain: "...we are saying respect the past referendum and I just tell you we have to be careful what we wish for."
4:56 PM - Sep 24, 2018 (Politics Live, Guardian)


Actually, I think the "be careful what we wish for" bit is quite true. The whole "Brexit" issue is now in vicious circle territory. The possibilities (another referendum and possible outcomes\General election and possible outcomes\Labour winning and possible outcome on a deal (which could itself lead to the need, let alone a call, for another referendum - so perhaps having one sooner rather than later is perhaps not sensible)) are so convoluted and hostage to fortune that it's impossible for me (or anyone else?) to plot a safe path.

Sorry for the rather rambling post. Perm any one from . . .
Exactly what I would have written if I had the energy
It's cold again and day time ends before I get daytime things done


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:02 pm 
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" Suppose that, somehow, it is decided that a hard Brexit is the default of any second referendum. In that case, it is clear that most Remainers would vote Yes to the Brexit Deal brought back from Brussels by the government for the simple reason that it could not be as bad as the hardest of Brexits.

Now, if the default of a second referendum was to Remain, then Brussels would suddenly have a powerful incentive to offer London a ludicrously bad Deal – safe in the knowledge that the British voters would reject it at the second referendum. In short, whichever the default, a second referendum to annul – or to confirm – Brexit is pointless."

https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2018/02/ ... -no-sense/


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:13 pm 
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Don't know what was going on with "my" last post. I'd bin it if I could.


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:18 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
Don't know what was going on with "my" last post. I'd bin it if I could.

Binned ;-)

You just click the little cross.

And if you're a hard Admin sort of guy, you can click the cross on others' posts too :twisted:


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:20 pm 
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Evening all.

Just been reading Chris Cook's demolition of the IEA report on Brexit (incidentally, Gisela Stuart at the launch of a report by this bunch - WTF??).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45625724

I love the bit about the missing footnote 28...which just happens to be the one for "The IEA’s own modelling work" :D

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:24 pm 
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Incidentally, I remember a glitch in MS Word which caused me no end of work to rectify - about a page and a bit of footnotes simply vanished leaving a blank space.

I guess if this was deliberate they had to put footnotes in manually in order to make one vanish.

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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:25 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
There were 10 such motions in all, the other 8 were approved by 98-99% of delegates. Speaks for itself really.

Next year's conference will have an NEC that is more sympathetic to automatic reselection - no surprise if it is then back on the agenda.

Here are the 10 things agreed: Check out @ToryFibs’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/104 ... 33699?s=09


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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:31 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
[youtube]6VxoXn-0Ezs[/youtube

If rather inaccurate on the personal details front . . .



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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:35 pm 
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PostPosted: Mon 24 Sep, 2018 7:58 pm 
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@refitman

A new one on me. I enjoyed it - thanks.


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