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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 6:03 am 
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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 7:01 am 
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So we're getting to the last phase now and the government are sticking to their take it or leave it stance:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... s-says-may

Quote:
Amendments on Brexit deal should be restricted – government
Letter to MPs signals adoption of ‘take it or leave it’ approach on final deal


The government is right about one thing though:

Quote:
“Amendments – even those which may not intend to affect approval – may actually result in the government being unable to ratify the withdrawal agreement.


What May agrees with the EU can't be changed, only approved or rejected. Amendments will be about what happens next - Norway or Canada or a further referendum - and are unlikely to find enough support to defeat the government I suspect.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 7:56 am 
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/don- ... -kdxlrq9cw


Don’t gag us over welfare reform, charity leaders say

"The intervention comes after The Times revealed that charities and companies working with universal credit claimants had been banned from criticising Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary.

An investigation found that 22 organisations had signed deals, worth £1.8 billion, to run programmes helping people back to work. The contracts state that those receiving the money must “not do anything which may attract adverse publicity” to the work and pensions secretary and must “pay the utmost regard to [her] standing and reputation”.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 8:22 am 
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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 8:49 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
So we're getting to the last phase now and the government are sticking to their take it or leave it stance:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... s-says-may

Quote:
Amendments on Brexit deal should be restricted – government
Letter to MPs signals adoption of ‘take it or leave it’ approach on final deal


The government is right about one thing though:

Quote:
“Amendments – even those which may not intend to affect approval – may actually result in the government being unable to ratify the withdrawal agreement.


What May agrees with the EU can't be changed, only approved or rejected. Amendments will be about what happens next - Norway or Canada or a further referendum - and are unlikely to find enough support to defeat the government I suspect.


We're also almost certainly looking at a situation where MPs are going to be given nothing but a Yes/No choice on something very vague. There is not going to be a settled treaty to vote on, and there almost certainly isn't going to be even an outline agreement to vote on. It's not even clear that there will be a settled and agreed UK government position.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:04 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
So we're getting to the last phase now and the government are sticking to their take it or leave it stance:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... s-says-may


Keir Starmer's response - "we'll see about that".


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:15 am 
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adam wrote:
We're also almost certainly looking at a situation where MPs are going to be given nothing but a Yes/No choice on something very vague. There is not going to be a settled treaty to vote on, and there almost certainly isn't going to be even an outline agreement to vote on. It's not even clear that there will be a settled and agreed UK government position.

Putting the inadequacy of the UK constitution in the spotlight.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:17 am 
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I wish the march on Saturday was simply for Remain and not another referendum.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:20 am 
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Quote:
UK retail sales shrank by 0.8% in September, a bigger fall than expected.

'expected'

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:23 am 
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gilsey wrote:
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UK retail sales shrank by 0.8% in September, a bigger fall than expected.

'expected'


An unexpected bigger fall than expected.

Edited to add -

Which was only to be expected.


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:25 am 
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gilsey wrote:
I wish the march on Saturday was simply for Remain and not another referendum.


I wish it wasn't through the middle of London again?


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:28 am 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
gilsey wrote:
I wish the march on Saturday was simply for Remain and not another referendum.


I wish it wasn't through the middle of London again?


I agree - somewhere in the Northern Powerhouse would have far more impact rather than involving metropolitan elite Remoaners as usual...

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:29 am 
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gilsey wrote:
adam wrote:
We're also almost certainly looking at a situation where MPs are going to be given nothing but a Yes/No choice on something very vague. There is not going to be a settled treaty to vote on, and there almost certainly isn't going to be even an outline agreement to vote on. It's not even clear that there will be a settled and agreed UK government position.
Putting the inadequacy of the UK constitution in the spotlight.
(cJA emphasis)
Yes.
Given what Tory government has done for over eight years, I'm terrified of their continued leadership.


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:32 am 
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Non leadership

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:33 am 
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I really don't know where to start with Jeremy Corbyn's statement (quoted over at Politics Live, Guardian).


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 10:12 am 
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That’s why we have an alternative plan for a Brexit that guarantees jobs, rights and protections with a new deal with the single market, ensures no hard border in Ireland and supports UK manufacturing with a new customs union.


You're either part of the single market or you're not. It's only by accepting the four freedoms of movement that you get to enjoy all the benefits of the single market because freedom of movement is the the benefit. There is no "new deal" that can change that basic fact. He thinks we're idiots. He's probably mostly right, but it doesn't make it any less misleading. Unless he argues openly and clearly for remaining in the single market and being honest about having to continue with some degree of free movement of people, he can't promise any more benefits than May can achieve. A customs union is inevitable in any withdrawal deal, so May will have to agree one (however much she may pretend it's temporary) or not make a deal at all. Corbyn can't trump this if leaving the SM remains Labour policy and he must surely know it. He's saying this so he can vote against a withdrawal deal even if it essentially achieves Labour's policy of a customs union but outside SM. It makes political sense, perhaps, voting with the government wouldn't be an easy option for Labour, but in economic terms it's so much bollocks really, as we've had all along from pretty much everyone.

I would have preferred he'd been honest from the start. It was always a choice between the economy - SM - or controlling immigration - FTA - never both.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 10:18 am 
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Willow904 wrote:
Quote:
That’s why we have an alternative plan for a Brexit that guarantees jobs, rights and protections with a new deal with the single market, ensures no hard border in Ireland and supports UK manufacturing with a new customs union.


You're either part of the single market or you're not. It's only by accepting the four freedoms of movement that you get to enjoy all the benefits of the single market because freedom of movement is the the benefit. There is no "new deal" that can change that basic fact. He thinks we're idiots. He's probably mostly right, but it doesn't make it any less misleading. Unless he argues openly and clearly for remaining in the single market and being honest about having to continue with some degree of free movement of people, he can't promise any more benefits than May can achieve. A customs union is inevitable in any withdrawal deal, so May will have to agree one (however much she may pretend it's temporary) or not make a deal at all. Corbyn can't trump this if leaving the SM remains Labour policy and he must surely know it. He's saying this so he can vote against a withdrawal deal even if it essentially achieves Labour's policy of a customs union but outside SM. It makes political sense, perhaps, voting with the government wouldn't be an easy option for Labour, but in economic terms it's so much bollocks really, as we've had all along from pretty much everyone.

I would have preferred he'd been honest from the start. It was always a choice between the economy - SM - or controlling immigration - FTA - never both.


What he could be saying, and should be saying, is that we can stay as we are, or leave but maintain some kind of SM/CU membership, but we can put in place all of the perfectly proper and legitimate controls on internal EU migration that we have chosen not to put in place to date.

Quote:
We could easily have taken back control of our borders already under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves
From this in the guardian. The actual EU directive on this is here and there's a pretty good guide to its contents here.

If you really want to placate the 'control our borders' vote then that's the honest and legitimate way to do it.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 10:47 am 
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adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
Quote:
That’s why we have an alternative plan for a Brexit that guarantees jobs, rights and protections with a new deal with the single market, ensures no hard border in Ireland and supports UK manufacturing with a new customs union.


You're either part of the single market or you're not. It's only by accepting the four freedoms of movement that you get to enjoy all the benefits of the single market because freedom of movement is the the benefit. There is no "new deal" that can change that basic fact. He thinks we're idiots. He's probably mostly right, but it doesn't make it any less misleading. Unless he argues openly and clearly for remaining in the single market and being honest about having to continue with some degree of free movement of people, he can't promise any more benefits than May can achieve. A customs union is inevitable in any withdrawal deal, so May will have to agree one (however much she may pretend it's temporary) or not make a deal at all. Corbyn can't trump this if leaving the SM remains Labour policy and he must surely know it. He's saying this so he can vote against a withdrawal deal even if it essentially achieves Labour's policy of a customs union but outside SM. It makes political sense, perhaps, voting with the government wouldn't be an easy option for Labour, but in economic terms it's so much bollocks really, as we've had all along from pretty much everyone.

I would have preferred he'd been honest from the start. It was always a choice between the economy - SM - or controlling immigration - FTA - never both.


What he could be saying, and should be saying, is that we can stay as we are, or leave but maintain some kind of SM/CU membership, but we can put in place all of the perfectly proper and legitimate controls on internal EU migration that we have chosen not to put in place to date.

Quote:
We could easily have taken back control of our borders already under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves
From this in the guardian. The actual EU directive on this is here and there's a pretty good guide to its contents here.

If you really want to placate the 'control our borders' vote then that's the honest and legitimate way to do it.


I suspect this would have been the approach under Ed Miliband. In the case of an either/or, most polls have suggested a majority for SM over controlling immigration anyway, even before you show how immigration can be controlled much more than it is currently under SM rules. Way too late now, though. It's just fire fighting from here on in, trying to stop the worst from happening.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:18 am 
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PorFavor wrote:
I really don't know where to start with Jeremy Corbyn's statement (quoted over at Politics Live, Guardian).

I would say there are 2 facts to start with.

1. Labour can't negotiate a deal that meets their own 6 tests.

2. Labour can negotiate a better deal (for the country) than the current govt.

Not terribly helpful I know.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:19 am 
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Actually, that is a pretty good summary of things.


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:26 am 
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I agree with Ian Dunt.
Quote:
You can see the outline of a Brexit compromise already. The two sides want it. They're talking kind of the same kind of language. The trouble is that the compromise position is so utterly deranged that it will poison our politics for years.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10 ... -for-years

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:28 am 
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I can't bring myself to be outraged about Labour's economy with the truth tbh, I can't avoid comparing them with the current shower.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:47 am 
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Never forget that Ian Dunt took a rather different line on the EU just 5 years ago.


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 12:03 pm 
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This "just in time" thing. I know that we have it on reliable authority that we are in a "post-geography" age, but isn't distance a factor? No-one ever seems to mention that.


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 12:12 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Never forget that Ian Dunt took a rather different line on the EU just 5 years ago.

I know, then he wrote the book on it.

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 12:15 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
This "just in time" thing. I know that we have it on reliable authority that we are in a "post-geography" age, but isn't distance a factor? No-one ever seems to mention that.

The 'gravity model' of trade is mentioned quite a lot by economists and it doesn't apply only to just-in-time manufacturing.
It's why Johnson's free trade fairyland is just that, fairyland.

It's the sort of thing the BBC should have been telling us about since before the referendum. :roll:

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 1:10 pm 
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gilsey wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
This "just in time" thing. I know that we have it on reliable authority that we are in a "post-geography" age, but isn't distance a factor? No-one ever seems to mention that.

The 'gravity model' of trade is mentioned quite a lot by economists and it doesn't apply only to just-in-time manufacturing.
It's why Johnson's free trade fairyland is just that, fairyland.

It's the sort of thing the BBC should have been telling us about since before the referendum. :roll:


Thanks. (But by "no-one", I really meant Boris Johnson and his ilk, and the mainstream media. Sorry for not being clear.)

Edited to add - let me be clear . . .


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 4:02 pm 
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Good evening all, anything happening?


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 4:43 pm 
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PorFavor wrote:
gilsey wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
This "just in time" thing. I know that we have it on reliable authority that we are in a "post-geography" age, but isn't distance a factor? No-one ever seems to mention that.

The 'gravity model' of trade is mentioned quite a lot by economists and it doesn't apply only to just-in-time manufacturing.
It's why Johnson's free trade fairyland is just that, fairyland.

It's the sort of thing the BBC should have been telling us about since before the referendum. :roll:


Thanks. (But by "no-one", I really meant Boris Johnson and his ilk, and the mainstream media. Sorry for not being clear.)

Edited to add - let me be clear . . .

Sorry, I shouldn’t have needed a sarcasm alert. :oops:

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 4:48 pm 
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Quote:
Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
BREAKING: Try following this... PM says "I've always been v clear that we negotiated that the implementation period would end Dec 2020. An 'option' to extend implementation period has emerged. But we are NOT proposing an extension to implementation period." Erm

4:00 PM - Oct 18, 2018


For "implementation" read " transition" and for "option" read "probable necessity" and you're just about there, I think.

Didn't someone right back at the start say the EU were expecting the UK to kick off the negotiations by asking for an extension to the article 50 process and were surprised when we didn't? Might have been a good idea. Mind you, imagine all the fun of backstops to backstops and extensions that are options that definitely haven't been proposed we would have missed out on if we had, though. :popcorn:

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 6:23 pm 
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All waiting for your daily Crace ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ers-brexit


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 7:00 pm 
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1oCVHtM1CY



Gary Younge on Trump's relationship with the Truth, like er ...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tatorships


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 7:26 pm 
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/worl ... syria.html


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 7:29 pm 
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Image

Saudi Arabia Delivers $100 Million Pledged to U.S.

as Pompeo Lands in Riyadh


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 7:59 pm 
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goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 8:17 pm 
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Quote:
Kevin Schofield

Verified account

@PolhomeEditor
1h1 hour ago
More
Now this is a story and a half, from top colleague @sebwhale.
Johnny Mercer tells @theHouse_mag he wouldn't vote Tory were it not for the fact he's a Tory MP and calls the current government a "shit show". There's much, much more.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/po ... te-tory-if


:lol:

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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:13 pm 
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RogerOThornhill wrote:
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Kevin Schofielderified accountPolhomeEditor1h1 hour agoore
Now this is a story and a half, from top colleague @sebwhale.ohnny Mercer tells @theHouse_mag he wouldn't vote Tory were it not for the fact he's a Tory MP and calls the current government a "shit show". There's much, much more.https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/po ... te-tory-if
:lol:

Much enjoyed ! As a former Gunner too .
I’ve had my eye on him .

(Nothing to do with his being a Gunner , of course .)

Cough .

“” In October 2018, he was criticised by his political rivals for taking on a second job on a salary of £85,000 a year for working 20 hours a month as a consultant to Brighton based Crucial Academy Ltd. His Labour rival accused him of neglecting his duties in his constituency to earn a “staggering” amount of money. However, Mercer responded that criticism “smacked of political jealousy” and the extra work only equated to four hours a week.[37] Additional employment for MPs as consultants has been criticised and his Labour Party opponents have called for the practice to be outlawe


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:17 pm 
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Even when some people get SOME things wrong, I may cut them quite a lot of slack .


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:22 pm 
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frog222 wrote:
Cough .

“” In October 2018, he was criticised by his political rivals for taking on a second job on a salary of £85,000 a year for working 20 hours a month as a consultant to Brighton based Crucial Academy Ltd. His Labour rival accused him of neglecting his duties in his constituency to earn a “staggering” amount of money. However, Mercer responded that criticism “smacked of political jealousy” and the extra work only equated to four hours a week.[37] Additional employment for MPs as consultants has been criticised and his Labour Party opponents have called for the practice to be outlawed


Having seen what Chuka is getting paid for his new think tank "job", this sort of thing isn't just confined to Tories it seems :twisted:


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 9:33 pm 
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AnatolyKasparov wrote:
frog222 wrote:
Cough .

“” In October 2018, he was criticised by his political rivals for taking on a second job on a salary of £85,000 a year for working 20 hours a month as a consultant to Brighton based Crucial Academy Ltd. His Labour rival accused him of neglecting his duties in his constituency to earn a “staggering” amount of money. However, Mercer responded that criticism “smacked of political jealousy” and the extra work only equated to four hours a week.[37] Additional employment for MPs as consultants has been criticised and his Labour Party opponents have called for the practice to be outlawed


Having seen what Chuka is getting paid for his new think tank "job", this sort of thing isn't just confined to Tories it seems :twisted:

AK -- leaving aside for the mom Mercer's weaknesses for the Academy ££££££'s ( if that is the case ?) , he appears to me to be the rare thing, a pretty honest Tory MP ?

Declaration of interest " FOR Gunners , if they're not that shit Cleverly ".

As you were :-)


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:41 pm 
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Question Time tonight came from Guilford and its denizens this evening were rather well behaved. The most notable audience intervention came from a young lady who said she'd worked for the official Leave campaign and claimed 'The Remain campaign also lied' before admitting she'd worked for Leave's finance dept which elicited some considerable guffawing.

On the panel for Labour we had Keir Starmer. Those wishing Keir to become the next leader of the Labour Party should probably watch this performance and think again. Mr Starmer is, not to put too fine a point on it, boring. He is devoid of any discernable personality and seems utterly unable to get to the point. Where 10 words will do Keir will use 100. These are fine qualities for a lawyer, or even his present job, but unfortunately his remorseless meticulousness combined with an almost pathological dullness would make him a godawful party leader.

For the Tories we had James Cleverly who claimed we had to keep selling weapons to Saudi Arabia because if we didn't somebody worse would. This was in response to what he claimed were 'simplistic' arguments to the contrary. So apparently it's fine to be an arms dealer to a literally murderous autocratic regime as long as your competitors are even bigger scumbags than you are. Mr Cleverly is seen as one of the rising stars in the Conservative party.

Also for the Tories (from the Lords) we had Michael Dobbs who apparently wrote 'House of cards' which I've never seen and was an advisor to Thatcher. His contribution on Brexit was almost surreal. He said he'd imagined how Maggie would have dealt with the current mess we find ourselves in then went on a brief anti-EU tirade, which was both factually bollocks and also the complete opposite of what we know his sainted Margaret actually thought. I'm tempted to perform some Lovecraftian ritual to revive her so she can sort her worshippers out before I put her down again.

Alongside them we had comedian Nish Kumar who pointed out last time he was on was in January and in regards to Brexit you might as well superimpose his previous performance because we're still in exactly the same place, saying exactly the same things. Also he called Farage a moron which is always to be applauded.

And Zanny Minton Beddoes from The Economist who was right about everything. An impressive woman.


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PostPosted: Thu 18 Oct, 2018 11:58 pm 
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Excellent stuff Sky !

I always had my suspicions about Starmer , as in ... WTF did the CPS Oh so suddenly begin to be a complete shower of shit when he left it ?


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