FlyTheNest

Morning all.

Aargh.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/files/d ... er-2018_en" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


"enable people to take as much control as they want to over their support"


I would however go further,positively encourage to take control,decades of accepting unacceptabilities,the relentless burdensome/unfair narrative mean that strenuous efforts have to be made to combat meek recipience at best IMHO.There is indisputable evidence that control leads to both a better life and extended.


Also indisputable that it well pays for itself how it. ever became. a "problem" rather than an obvious solution is.a complete mystery to naive me.

Keir Starmer
‏@Keir_Starmer

Careful reading and analysis of the Government’s 500 page ‘deal’ reveals that it’s a miserable failure of negotiation.
Huge detail on a backstop (which government says it doesn’t intend to use).
Vague in the extreme on the future relationship (which is meant to be the government’s preferred option).
Not good enough for manufacturing, not good enough for services and lacking any robust safeguards for our vital rights and protections.
The opposite of what has been promised for two years.

Starmer says May’s line that the choice is between this deal or no deal is a “threat” from the prime minister and he says that Labour does not accept this ultimatum. Many MPs, not just Labour MPs, will refuse to accept that they must agree to a deal they think is bad, out of fear of preventing something worse (a no-deal Brexit), says Starmer.

“There is an alternative,” he says, which is a deal that involves a comprehensive customs union and the UK staying in the single market.

No quote for the bit in bold, unfortunately. If he said that it's a huge departure from the official Labour line, surely. The most he's said before is staying in the single market should remain an option.

Shailesh Vara MP
‏@ShaileshVara

With much sadness and regret I have submitted my letter of resignation as a Northern Ireland Minister to the Prime Minister. A copy of my letter is attached.
It has been a joy and privilege to serve in the Northern Ireland Office and I will always cherish the fondest memories.

Bit premature there Paul. I've merged the threads.

HindleA wrote:Aargh.

Ya snooze, ya lose.

refitman wrote:Bit premature there Paul. I've merged the threads.

Whoops wishful thinking it's been a long week

Glad I missed the interview by Nick Robinson, who has not read the 500 page deal, of Keir Starmer, who has.

I ran back from work in determination,foiled by not knowing what date it was.

I have.
"the 500 page deal"

So weak it feels like a fortnight.

Hard Brexit Tory on the telly moaning the agreement means we would have to adopt the same standards as the EU on the environment etc.

Are they going to admit that their aim is to deregulate, reducing workers rights and environmental protections? Or are they going to continue to pretend they just want the "sovereignty" to do so but don't plan to use it?!

wtf ?

” Final Say: Theresa May admits Brexit can be stopped by new referendum as cabinet back draft deal”

?????

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 34381.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mp's still talking about the end of free movement when UK NEVER used its powers to do just that .ffs .

Looking forward to hearing reports on this chaos later , busy today must go

Alex Wickham
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Raab resigns

12:53 AM - 15 Nov 2018

https://amp.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Resignation statement.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill wrote:Alex Wickham
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Raab resigns

12:53 AM - 15 Nov 2018

Ouch!

Patrick Kidd
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@patrick_kidd
5m5 minutes ago
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With Raab gone there is one obvious course of action now for May to save the country from a disastrous Brexit: put Chris Grayling in charge of delivering it. No way it would ever happen then.

Matthew Pennycook MP
Matthew Pennycook MP
@mtpennycook
·
54m
The draft withdrawal agreement is simply not good enough. Of particular concern is the 7-page outline political declaration. Far from being detailed, precise and substantive as Ministers promised, it is extraordinarily vague and if approved would open the door to a hard Brexit.

Is there scope for a cross party attempt to amend the political declaration? This may be the only way for May to find a majority for her withdrawal agreement. The divorce bill and citizens rights etc can't be altered from what has been agreed with the EU but the statement on the future relationship could be tweaked, if only in line with what the EU has previously outlined as acceptable. What kind of future relationship could a majority of the house unite behind, though?

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -mays-deal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On Wednesday night, the Labour party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and chief whip, Nick Brown, met May for a 20-minute meeting after she briefed her cabinet, in order to discuss the run up to the vote. Corbyn tweeted after the meeting: “This is a bad deal which isn’t in the interests of the whole country.”
A Labour source said Corbyn had stressed importance of giving parliament and committees sufficient time and information for serious scrutiny of the deal and that Labour would put down its own amendment when the deal was put to parliament.
Key to Labour calculations have been the 15 Labour MPs who defied the whip in June to vote against an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill which would keep the UK in a Norway-style EEA agreement. MPs had been instructed to abstain on the amendment, though Labour eventually split three ways, with dozens more voting to back it.

Any ideas what the amendment would be?

Willow904 wrote:

Matthew Pennycook MP
Matthew Pennycook MP
@mtpennycook
·
54m
The draft withdrawal agreement is simply not good enough. Of particular concern is the 7-page outline political declaration. Far from being detailed, precise and substantive as Ministers promised, it is extraordinarily vague and if approved would open the door to a hard Brexit.

Is there scope for a cross party attempt to amend the political declaration? This may be the only way for May to find a majority for her withdrawal agreement. The divorce bill and citizens rights etc can't be altered from what has been agreed with the EU but the statement on the future relationship could be tweaked, if only in line with what the EU has previously outlined as acceptable. What kind of future relationship could a majority of the house unite behind, though?

Morning Willow, anything is possible ! " a cross party attempt " is not a million miles away from, in effect, a Government of National Unity . Which has been done before . I'm mostly joking, but UK or rather English politics are looking almost as crazy as post WW2 Italy ... and now modern Italy

The French Socialist Party is now at 6% ...

Anna Soubry MP
Anna Soubry MP
@Anna_Soubry
·
26m
Raab’s resignation marks the end of PMs Withdrawal Agreement. This is v serious the PM will clearly be considering her position. My own view is that we need a Govt of National Unity and we need it now.

But what path would such a government unite around?

There is a simple divide in parliament between a hard Brexit, leaving all EU institutions including ECJ and even the ECHR, and a soft Brexit, remaining within EU institutions such as the single market and accepting oversight of ECJ.

The push from some for a further referendum in the hopes of reversing Brexit and remaining in the EU complicates this arithmetic though, making soft Brexit less likely because this group seems likely to join the hard Brexiters in outright rejecting, rather than amending, a withdrawal agreement.

Ultimately, with Raab gone, May needs the opposition to name it's price to keep her in place and keep a deal alive. The stage is set for Labour to defeat the hard Brexiters permanently by supporting the withdrawal agreement with a political statement on the future relationship which can command a Commons majority for a soft Brexit. But despite Soubry's enthusiasm, can anyone see Labour being able to take this route now having raised expectations of defeating May's deal and forcing a General Election?

All eyes on Keir Starmer.

Willow904 wrote:

Anna Soubry MP
Anna Soubry MP
@Anna_Soubry
·
26m
Raab’s resignation marks the end of PMs Withdrawal Agreement. This is v serious the PM will clearly be considering her position. My own view is that we need a Govt of National Unity and we need it now.

But what path would such a government unite around?

There is a simple divide in parliament between a hard Brexit, leaving all EU institutions including ECJ and even the ECHR, and a soft Brexit, remaining within EU institutions such as the single market and accepting oversight of ECJ.

The push from some for a further referendum in the hopes of reversing Brexit and remaining in the EU complicates this arithmetic though, making soft Brexit less likely because this group seems likely to join the hard Brexiters in outright rejecting, rather than amending, a withdrawal agreement.

Ultimately, with Raab gone, May needs the opposition to name it's price to keep her in place and keep a deal alive. The stage is set for Labour to defeat the hard Brexiters permanently by supporting the withdrawal agreement with a political statement on the future relationship which can command a Commons majority for a soft Brexit. But despite Soubry's enthusiasm, can anyone see Labour being able to take this route now having raised expectations of defeating May's deal and forcing a General Election?

All eyes on Keir Starmer.

Maybe accept the withdrawal agreement, but plan for a referendum on final relationship at some point before the end (cough) of the transition period.
Not ideal, but could exclude no deal and maybe have rejoin EU as one of the options.

RogerOThornhill wrote:

Patrick Kidd
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With Raab gone there is one obvious course of action now for May to save the country from a disastrous Brexit: put Chris Grayling in charge of delivering it. No way it would ever happen then.

A genuine "funny cos its true" tweet.

From Andrew Sparrow.

The Tory Brexiter Anne Marie Morris has just told the BBC that she believes more than 48 of her colleagues have already written to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the backbench 1922 committee, calling for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. But some of those letters were written on the condition that they could not be activated until the author agreed, she said. She said the time had come for those MPs to now authorise the use of their letters.

She said she was calling for the removal of May because she thought that was necessary for Brexit to be delivered.

The problem for Brexiteers is that even if they manage to install one of their own as PM and go for a full on hard Brexit, I very much doubt that would be voted in favour in the Commons either. There's only a handful of Labour MPs that will go with that and the majority of Toy MPs won't either.

GE next with both parties saying further referendum?

RogerOThornhill wrote:

From Andrew Sparrow.

The Tory Brexiter Anne Marie Morris has just told the BBC that she believes more than 48 of her colleagues have already written to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the backbench 1922 committee, calling for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. But some of those letters were written on the condition that they could not be activated until the author agreed, she said. She said the time had come for those MPs to now authorise the use of their letters.

She said she was calling for the removal of May because she thought that was necessary for Brexit to be delivered.

The problem for Brexiteers is that even if they manage to install one of their own as PM and go for a full on hard Brexit, I very much doubt that would be voted in favour in the Commons either. There's only a handful of Labour MPs that will go with that and the majority of Toy MPs won't either.

GE next with both parties saying further referendum?

So if they got hold of the conservative leadership and so the premiership they simply wouldn't put a meaningful question before parliament but would get on and do what they wanted to, and parliament would have to come together to get rid of them. You're back to relying on the conservative party to act with a conscience. It might, but I wouldn't rely on it.

Paul Brand
(@PaulBrandITV)
BREAKING: I understand another resignation imminent - more junior though. Stand by.

I predict Suella Braverman given that she used to head up the ERG.

And McVey's gone!

Excellent news.

tinybgoat wrote:https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -mays-deal

On Wednesday night, the Labour party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and chief whip, Nick Brown, met May for a 20-minute meeting after she briefed her cabinet, in order to discuss the run up to the vote. Corbyn tweeted after the meeting: “This is a bad deal which isn’t in the interests of the whole country.”
A Labour source said Corbyn had stressed importance of giving parliament and committees sufficient time and information for serious scrutiny of the deal and that Labour would put down its own amendment when the deal was put to parliament.
Key to Labour calculations have been the 15 Labour MPs who defied the whip in June to vote against an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill which would keep the UK in a Norway-style EEA agreement. MPs had been instructed to abstain on the amendment, though Labour eventually split three ways, with dozens more voting to back it.

Any ideas what the amendment would be?

There's the rub.....!

But Keir Starmer has been quite vocal lately against a "blind Brexit" in particular, which does suggest a non-blind Brexit which sets out an acceptable future relationship might, just might, still be feasible.

What that acceptable future relationship might be, though, I have no idea. Corbyn's position is so close to the customs union fudge May is offering it's hard to see how it would get us any further along. Soft Brexit Tories favour EEA or "Norway" type options Corbyn has historically ruled out. Which is why I honed in on Sparrow's casual para-phrasing of Starmer suggesting an alternative such as remaining in the single market wold be preferable to May's vague back-stopped blancmange. Would the "people's vote" Labour centrists be on board, though? Right now I'm feeling they could be more trouble than Corbyn's past rhetoric, tbh.

That "Agreement by the Cabinet" lasted a long while didn't it?

There were rumours that 6 cabinet members would go today.

I still think the Tories, despite everything, will be loath to have a GE if they think there is a realistic chance they will lose it.

It will only happen if it is totally unavoidable, and we aren't there yet - for a start if May goes any new leader will at least make an attempt to get some sort of Brexit deal.

(and no, it won't be an ERG type)

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I still think the Tories, despite everything, will be loath to have a GE if they think there is a realistic chance they will lose it.

It will only happen if it is totally unavoidable, and we aren't there yet - for a start if May goes any new leader will at least make an attempt to get some sort of Brexit deal.

(and no, it won't be an ERG type)

I know that Andrew Sparrow's fairly firm view is that if May faces a (party/1922 committee) confidence vote then she will win it. The question I suppose is how much opposition she will face and how determined she is to stay, which in part comes down to what the alternatives are. There doesn't appear to be anybody offering a meaningful alternative within her party. It becomes a bit less impossible that the conservatives might come to think that they best way out of the mess, and the best way to avoid a collapse and a general election, is to find a question to put back to another referendum.

Its becoming a bit more obvious why May met with Corbyn last night, anyway.......

RogerOThornhill wrote:

Paul Brand
(@PaulBrandITV)
BREAKING: I understand another resignation imminent - more junior though. Stand by.

I predict Suella Braverman given that she used to head up the ERG.

And, with that, she's gone.

Good morfternoon.

RogerOThornhill wrote:

Paul Brand
(@PaulBrandITV)
BREAKING: I understand another resignation imminent - more junior though. Stand by.

I predict Suella Braverman given that she used to head up the ERG.

Not exactly hard to predict but I claim a win...

Junior Brexit minister Suella Braverman resigns

"interesting"times

Anne-Marie Trevelyan (whoever she might be) gone as well.

Have to go out now, what will be left of this government when I next manage to get to a computer?

David Baddiel
@Baddiel
24 minutes ago

I feel I should take the job of Brexit Secretary now. If only so that when I resign, Theresa May can finally be proved right than No Deal is better than a Baddiel.

Everybody thinks they are a comedian.

Theresa May's statement in the Commons -

The list of things which Theresa May has admitted, by implication, the Government hasn't been attending to, is criminal.

10:42
May says, when she became PM, there was no plan for Brexit.

May implicitly criticises the Cameron government for not having a plan for Brexit.
Some people said it could not be done. She did not accept that, she says.

She says it has been a frustrating process. It has forced the UK to confront difficult issues.

Once a final deal is agreed, she will come to parliament and ask MPs to back it in the national interest.

May says the choice is clear. We can choose to leave with no deal, or have no Brexit at all

Quite right and it's a shame that you weren't in it so that you could have changed that situation...wait...

Judging by Twitter Corbyn doing a good job of destroying May's deal in the House.

Reading Starmer's text I imagine!

Bloomberg Brexit
‏@Brexit
26 seconds ago

There's no sign of Michael Gove or Liam Fox in the Commons while Theresa May speaks

Well the SNP aren't beating about the bush.

Remaining in the single market is the price for their support.

If gove is plotting to take over (which is being suggested) then (1) this is hilarious and (2) I suppose the alternative 1922 'confidence' situation is if there is confidence vote but sitting behind it is an alternate leadership team and plan in waiting. The thing is, how would Gove have a plan that could carry the house? I suppose an answer to that is that if they'd decided to change leaders and go for someone else then the tories in the commons would give someone else a chance, and on we would go...

May tells Scotland they are not special in any way and just have to put up with what England gives them. Not sure this is an entirely sensible way forwards.