FlyTheNest

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 11:59 am**

So a new page begins.......

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 12:03 pm**

Some Treasury bloke I've never heard of (sarcasm)dismissed it as "sad" and prattled on about the deficit and the well received budget on Marr.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 12:06 pm**

Not even an attempt at feigning giving a toss,so I suppose more honest.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 12:09 pm**

You don't have to be a fucking tosser to be a Tory but it certainly,and seemingly increasingly,helps.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 12:11 pm**

No not those "vulnerable" or that "protection"

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 1:15 pm**

https://www.quality-health.co.uk/surveys/phb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Personal Health Budget Experience Survey

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 2:06 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -for-today" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ignoring warnings made by Theresa May’s deputy, David Lidington, that she should support the deal because there were no further options for renegotiation, Sturgeon told Marr: “If the Commons says ‘we want to go down the road of single market/customs union, we want to take this back to the people of the UK in another vote, we need an extension of Article 50’, if there is a clear change of direction, then I believe the EU27 would be prepared to look at that.

“Those who don’t think the prime minister’s deal is the right way to go have now a responsibility to come together and coalesce around an alternative.”

I think Sturgeon is right about this. If MPs are going to reject May's deal they need to know beforehand that there's an alternative path that can command a majority in the house or they risk paralysis and default "no deal" exit. It's no good ERG Tories, remain Tories, Labour and SNP all voting against and then expecting their own preference to just somehow happen. They need to be talking to each other to make sure there's a strategy, a course of action, they have the numbers to enable. Only the ERG "no deal" crowd get what they want via paralysis and lack of cross party co-operation.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 2:56 pm**

@Willow904

Well, as you rightly go on to point out, the ERG faction would get what they want. And would also be able to blame everyone else (and they will - whilst simultaneously counting their money) when everything goes horribly wrong (for everyone else)).

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 3:27 pm**

PorFavor wrote:Well, I managed to miss most of Theresa May's interview and all of Jeremy Corbyn's. I expect both interviews will be on again (in full, I hope). Did anyone here catch them?

CRACE caught them !

Dadaist PM and vague Corbyn make nonsense of current state of Brexit

Both party leaders depart Sky’s Ridge on Sunday politics show with credibility further diminished

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -of-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 4:27 pm**

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ing-crisis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 4:32 pm**

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ing-crisis

Don't worry, once we do actually Brexit we will have all that extra money for the NHS and everything will be fine.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 4:39 pm**

I think there is a danger, at the moment, that business are so delighted with prospect the short term calamity of no deal potentially having receded, because there is at least a withdrawal agreement on the table, that they will shout out loudly and absolutely in favour of it despite the fact that its clearly and obviously leading towards a future of no frictionless trade and a hard exit. They can worry about that later - except it will be set in stone sooner rather than later if they carry on as they are.

There are comments reported in the guardian about Raab having apparently only just noticed what we agreed to in December 2017. Have people only just noticed that the government have only just noticed?

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 4:45 pm**

PorFavor wrote:@Willow904

Well, as you rightly go on to point out, the ERG faction would get what they want. And would also be able to blame everyone else (and they will - whilst simultaneously counting their money) when everything goes horribly wrong (for everyone else)).

Leave was heavily sponsored by hedge fund managers. We don't even have to leave for them to get a lot of what they want in terms of volatile markets. Leadership challenges, article 50 extensions, votes of no confidence, further referendums - all of them create uncertainty they can profit from. Meanwhile genuine business just wants clarity and clear goals so they know what to plan for. In the desperation of holding fragile voting coalitions together, neither main party is able to offer this. But an amendment pledging us to remain in the SM attached to May's deal would end that uncertainty right now. It would deliver on the referendum which all parties wish to do without major economic damage and with far less uncertainty of what the future will look like than we have now.

This route would not be in the Tories or Labour's political interests. It would suit neither devout leave voters or devout remain voters, but it would serve the very many people in between well enough, allowing them to put Brexit behind them and get on with their lives buying EU goods and go on EU holidays, be treated by EU nurses and get their cars washed by EU workers as if nothing had happened.

Attempting to amend the future declaration needs to be considered an option at the very least and alternatives with all their question marks measured against the certainties of this route. Only when such an amendment has failed to pass should voting against be considered imo. I hope someone will attempt to table one, so it is at least among the choices that MPs are given.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 4:50 pm**

PorFavor wrote:@Willow904

Well, as you rightly go on to point out, the ERG faction would get what they want. And would also be able to blame everyone else (and they will - whilst simultaneously counting their money) when everything goes horribly wrong (for everyone else)).

Doesn't sound like they're getting what they want according to the ERG publication posted today on Brexit Central

Your Right to Know: The Case against Chequers and the Draft Withdrawal Agreement in plain English
The ERG conclude:
The combination of these measures means the United Kingdom will have not left the European Union but will instead be ‘half in and half out’. This will mean that we will become a ‘vassal state’ many of whose laws will have been created abroad and over which we have no influence. This is completely against the spirit of the 2016 referendum in which 17.4 million UK citizens voted to leave the European Union.
https://brexitcentral.com/erg-publish-r ... exit-deal/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Seven-page document linked below

http://2mbg6fgb1kl380gtk22pbxgw-wpengin ... ToKnow.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:00 pm**

adam wrote:I think there is a danger, at the moment, that business are so delighted with prospect the short term calamity of no deal potentially having receded, because there is at least a withdrawal agreement on the table, that they will shout out loudly and absolutely in favour of it despite the fact that its clearly and obviously leading towards a future of no frictionless trade and a hard exit. They can worry about that later - except it will be set in stone sooner rather than later if they carry on as they are.

There are comments reported in the guardian about Raab having apparently only just noticed what we agreed to in December 2017. Have people only just noticed that the government have only just noticed?

Exactly so
These are delicate times; what will get reported and attention I don't know
May and her Tory have received all they're going get from the EU with this arrangement
I'm not suggesting another leader or government will be able to renegotiate this arrangement with the EU
I don't want the House bullied into accepting the Tory dog's breakfast their incompetence have produced, 'it's either this or no deal'. There are other options available to the UK. The EU likely prefers the UK take those other options, given their recent unequivocal statements, 'we're best prepared for no Brexit'.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:03 pm**

adam wrote:---
There are comments reported in the guardian about Raab having apparently only just noticed what we agreed to in December 2017. Have people only just noticed that the government have only just noticed?

(cJA edit)
This is what I mean by my not knowing what will end up in headlines
How are current events getting spun

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:12 pm**

Willow904 wrote:---
...an amendment pledging us to remain in the SM attached to May's deal would end that uncertainty right now. It would deliver on the referendum which all parties wish to do without major economic damage and with far less uncertainty of what the future will look like than we have now.

This route would not be in the Tories or Labour's political interests. It would suit neither devout leave voters or devout remain voters, but it would serve the very many people in between well enough, allowing them to put Brexit behind them and get on with their lives buying EU goods and go on EU holidays, be treated by EU nurses and get their cars washed by EU workers as if nothing had happened.
---

(cJA edit)
Amendments attached in the House to May's Tory deal with the EU are worthless unless the EU agrees to them.
The danger is the House agreeing to this Tory arrangement if it's presented as 'this or no deal'.
The UK has other options. How those options become available, I don't know.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:14 pm**

Good-evening, everyone

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:21 pm**

citizenJA wrote:
Willow904 wrote:---
...an amendment pledging us to remain in the SM attached to May's deal would end that uncertainty right now. It would deliver on the referendum which all parties wish to do without major economic damage and with far less uncertainty of what the future will look like than we have now.

This route would not be in the Tories or Labour's political interests. It would suit neither devout leave voters or devout remain voters, but it would serve the very many people in between well enough, allowing them to put Brexit behind them and get on with their lives buying EU goods and go on EU holidays, be treated by EU nurses and get their cars washed by EU workers as if nothing had happened.
---
(cJA edit)
Amendments attached in the House to May's Tory deal with the EU are worthless unless the EU agrees to them.
The danger is the House agreeing to this Tory arrangement if it's presented as 'this or no deal'.
The UK has other options. How those options become available, I don't know.

The EU aren't prepared to re-negotiate the withdrawal agreement and as you say it must be voted on as it is, but the statement of future goals could be amended because this is what is yet to be negotiated during the transition. As long as this aim is compatible with EU red lines (ie no cherry picking) it is as feasible as, say, hoping the EU will extend article 50 for a GE or further referendum.

Edited to add - the point about such an amendment, should it pass, is that the EU's response is then the only doubt or obstacle.

A GE has the obstacles of would the house vote for one and would Labour win one and would an extension to article 50 be granted to enable further negotiation.

A further referendum has the obstacles of would the house vote for one, what would the question be, what would the public vote for and would the EU grant an extension to allow for it.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:27 pm**

@Willow904
How binding would that statement of future goals be? Sincere question - I've no idea
Tory government using this disastrous plan securing their position indefinitely scares the hell out of me

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:31 pm**

frog222 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Well, I managed to miss most of Theresa May's interview and all of Jeremy Corbyn's. I expect both interviews will be on again (in full, I hope). Did anyone here catch them?
CRACE caught them !

Dadaist PM and vague Corbyn make nonsense of current state of Brexit

Both party leaders depart Sky’s Ridge on Sunday politics show with credibility further diminished

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -of-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I thought that the weirdest thing that Jeremy Corby said, and I quote:

"I respect all politicians."

Although I suppose he felt that he had to play safe, given that he wouldn't have been given the time to provide a long answer.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:31 pm**

I've zero confidence in this government acting in the best interests of most people or country and I've no idea how to get out from underneath them.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:32 pm**

A great big goddamn constitutional crisis is what we got

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:36 pm**

PorFavor wrote:---
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -of-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I thought that the weirdest thing that Jeremy Corby said, and I quote:

"I respect all politicians."

Although I suppose he felt that he had to play safe, given that he wouldn't have been given the time to provide a long answer.

(cJA edit)
Conciliatory statement indicating willingness for cross-party cooperation, he's clumsily hedging, attempting to head off 'SNP in your pocket' or whatever the hell jackass media strings a Labour leader up with

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:38 pm**

citizenJA wrote:@Willow904
How binding would that statement of future goals be? Sincere question - I've no idea
Tory government using this disastrous plan securing their position indefinitely scares the hell out of me

It would be as binding as the will of the MPs that band together to hold the government to it. The commitment to such an aim in a legal document agreed with the EU would add weight as would the expectations of businesses and individuals planning based on such a commitment.

One of Starmer's strongest arguments against May's deal is the fudge on the future relationship leaving us with a "blind Brexit". Giving clarity of what parliament will agree to by amending the declaration is in the best interests of all involved, if Brexit is, indeed, to go ahead.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:40 pm**

jesus, May dressed in white

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:50 pm**

A little light Nadine ?

Leave-voting MP Nadine Dorries slams May's Brexit deal because UK won’t have seats in European parliament

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 1542489444" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

EDIT PS " onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 5:57 pm**

frog222 wrote:A little light Nadine ?
edit---

none for me, thanks

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 6:46 pm**

RogerOThornhill wrote:
HindleA wrote:https://www.gov.uk/government/news/gove ... ar-degrees

Government boosts student choice with two-year degrees

Accelerated degrees meet exactly the same quality assurance measures as standard degrees and will provide exactly the same level of qualification. For example, a two-year accelerated degree will condense 3-year degrees with 30 weeks teaching into 2 years with 45 weeks teaching.
Interesting that there is no comment on this from the universities themselves.

Wonder what PFY thinks?

I could imagine academics wondering when their research and writing is going to get done. Or maybe Gyimah thinks they happen by magic?

It's a gimmick.

In fact some Unis do already offer two-year degrees. There may be niche demand for them, especially in highly vocational subjects. But the evidence so far seems to be that they are not particularly popular.

IMHO the more productive conversation would be how to allow more flexibility through degree programmes to cater for different circumstances. And the way to unlock that lies in the fees / funding mechanisms that are currently quite rigid and linked to the traditional periods of study.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 7:03 pm**

citizenJA wrote:
frog222 wrote:A little light Nadine ?
edit---
none for me, thanks

MY mouse has a scrolling-by wheel
IMO we need all the light relief we can get at the moment ... while still keeping an eye on the Serious Stuff .
Anyway, forriners in Engerland or we Brits in Europe have a far more worrying prospect than comfortably established people on either side of the Channel/North Sea/Bay of Biscay.

That is true.

PS EDIT to add ''' the Brits aren't the only people capable of enforcing a Hostile Environment .

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 7:16 pm**

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
HindleA wrote:https://www.gov.uk/government/news/gove ... ar-degrees
Government boosts student choice with two-year degrees

Accelerated degrees meet exactly the same quality assurance measures as standard degrees and will provide exactly the same level of qualification. For example, a two-year accelerated degree will condense 3-year degrees with 30 weeks teaching into 2 years with 45 weeks teaching.
Interesting that there is no comment on this from the universities themselves.
Wonder what PFY thinks?
I could imagine academics wondering when their research and writing is going to get done. Or maybe Gyimah thinks they happen by magic?
It's a gimmick.
In fact some Unis do already offer two-year degrees. There may be niche demand for them, especially in highly vocational subjects. But the evidence so far seems to be that they are not particularly popular.
IMHO the more productive conversation would be how to allow more flexibility through degree programmes to cater for different circumstances. And the way to ullock that lies in the fees / funding mechanisms that are currently quite rigid and linked to the traditional periods of study.

I'm a bit ancient, but UK friends who worked while studying often took years to do HND , and then degrees, had a good mix of experience and life, and were just more mature . The idea that you can take 18yo school-leavers and magically shunt them into the workforce as "highly qualified" people after two years sounds like a bad joke .

I've seen cases in France where 'kids' with 5,6,7 years of uni come out of it being er useless.

PS EDIT which is the other extreme

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 7:50 pm**

I loved my teachers; I've had many good ones. They helped give me confidence, continuity, and reputable, documented information. Experience eventually taught me essential skills and knowledge not covered elsewhere.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 7:53 pm**

@frog

Indeed I think 2 year degrees are not really suitable for the "typical" 18 year old.

But let's say you've been out of work caring for children or whatever for a few years and during that time decide that you absolutely want to go into a new profession. Then it might make perfect sense just to get on with it.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 8:05 pm**

I nowadays always read Nick Cohen , as a public duty to report upon, and privately just to see WHEN he gets in his dig at the devil CORBYN .

"" For all their utopian speculations, the passion that drives them is not a plan for the future but a hatred of the present. Any compromise with reality would mean conceding that their pro-European enemies inside the Tory party and the “remoaner” liberals outside had a case. They might even have to admit that we would have more “control” inside the EU than out. They prefer to bury Britain in a ditch than endure the pain of political capitulation.

As in Trump’s America, you hear the echoes of the precursors of fascism, who became ever more enamoured with the cleansing power of destruction as the 20th century began. In the Futurist Manifesto of 1909, Mussolini’s contemporary Filippo Marinetti declared his desire to “glorify war – the world’s only hygiene – militarism, patriotism, the destructive gesture of freedom-bringers, beautiful ideas worth dying for, and scorn for woman”. ""

Steve Bannon and the other 'Herculese' want to bring the present order crashing down around the ears of the rest of us .

IF you think that's far-fetched Check Them Out .

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 8:15 pm**

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:@frog

Indeed I think 2 year degrees are not really suitable for the "typical" 18 year old.

But let's say you've been out of work caring for children or whatever for a few years and during that time decide that you absolutely want to go into a new profession. Then it might make perfect sense just to get on with it.

Absolutely PFY ! The magic ingredient is , always nowadays, one's own 'motivation' .

Much easier to do here, but my daughter could not honestly remember the other day how much GD1's second year medicine fees cost her parents .

Was it €180 or €200 ?

Tricky !

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 9:03 pm**

The government now faces uncomfortable choices. There is no rational argument that sees the Brexit deal passing through the Commons. Every day that it takes the government to recognise this increases the risk of no deal. I do not believe that the Commons will allow this devastating consequence to arise. Two things have to happen. A cross-party alliance has to vote for an alternative option – the most obvious is to put the issue back to the British people in a second referendum. The Europeans have to agree – and I think they would – to move the March 2019 deadline to allow time for this.

That is the real national interest. The electorate has changed and changes every day. Let them vote to stay.

- Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -heseltine" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 9:06 pm**

Jeremy Corbyn’s team were cheered by the weekend’s polls, which showed voters seem prepared to punish the Conservatives for the internecine squabble over Brexit that has dominated the headlines.

They now plan to spend the next fortnight or so, before May’s deal comes before the Commons (if her own MPs allow her to get that far), explaining why they reject her approach.

And they will try to use every parliamentary tool at their disposal to make a no-deal Brexit impossible...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... impossible" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 9:39 pm**

Four local council byelections in the week just gone:

Oxfordshire CC - LibDem hold a seat in a two member division with close to half the vote and a small swing to them since last year. This division has returned two LibDems in every election since 2005, but the Tories have usually been competitive (coming closest in a previous 2008 byelection) and their share was little changed this time. Not much change for third placed Labour either (their 11% this time was either slightly up or down this time, depending what method of calculating change from multi-member elections you prefer) the the last placed Greens on 4% were almost halved compared with 2017.

Bassetlaw DC - Labour hold, falling a single vote short of exactly 50% (a 14 point increase and 5% swing) in a two member ward where they took both seats in 2015 but were strongly challenged by the Tories for the first time since they lost the ward to Labour in 2010. In the 2002 all-out elections things split 1C/1Lab, but the Tories took the Labour seat two years later and won easily in 2006 and 2008. Then the pendulum swung abruptly with a narrow Labour win initially followed by landslides in 2012 and 2014 - in the latter poll UKIP came second and also polled respectably the following year (when this council moved to elections every four years, rather than by thirds) Their absence now seemed to benefit Labour more than the Tories who had a much more modest increase, not much better than the LibDems who advanced by 3% to over 16%.

Kent CC - Tory hold, but with a double figure fall in their vote to not much over 40%. The fragmented state of the opposition in this division (newly crated for last year's elections) meant their victory was still fairly secure, though - a year ago the LibDems were pipped by Labour for second by a single vote but a 7 point increase to over 23% saw them leapfrog the reds now, though Labour also saw their share up by 4 points. Greens down to under 5%, just ahead of an (ex-Tory) Independent, and finally UKIP who in their only showing this week saw a small drop in their vote to under 4%.

Stroud DC - Labour hold with just over half the vote as both they and the second placed Tories enjoyed increases in the region of 15% since the all-out elections here two years ago when Labour took a 3 seats but were pressed hard (this being another council who moved from elections by thirds previously) This has been a classic Con/Lab battle in recent times with the LibDems also able to win on occasion (most recently squeaking past the Tories in 2010, with Labour close behind in a genuine 3 way scrap) In 2002 all-out elections there was a 2C/1Lab split here, LibDems took a Tory seat in 2003 and Labour held theirs in 2004 before 3 Tory wins in a row finally saw a full house for the blue team, only for a LibDem win to be followed by regular Labour wins from 2011 onwards - though, as now, they were usually pretty close. Greens lost two thirds of their 2016 share to end up with just 5%, but this was enough to finish ahead of the LibDems who scored 25% and a close third with their former councillor two years ago - they are no longer with us and seem to have taken most of the votes with them.

Four contests again in the week to come.

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 11:06 pm**

goodnight, everyone
love,
cJA

Posted: **Sun 18 Nov, 2018 11:10 pm**

citizenJA wrote:
The government now faces uncomfortable choices. There is no rational argument that sees the Brexit deal passing through the Commons. Every day that it takes the government to recognise this increases the risk of no deal. I do not believe that the Commons will allow this devastating consequence to arise. Two things have to happen. A cross-party alliance has to vote for an alternative option – the most obvious is to put the issue back to the British people in a second referendum. The Europeans have to agree – and I think they would – to move the March 2019 deadline to allow time for this.

t on ! ay.

- Michael Heseltine

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -heseltine" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Right on !!!

Posted: **Mon 19 Nov, 2018 12:09 am**

So I had to go to a temporary bus stop this evening and it was totally in the dark, the next street light was about 20 feet away, even I in my drunk state thought "This isn't good". And sure enough the last bus from Halifax to Leeds drove straight past me despite my flailing arm.

One could look at this from one of two ways.

It's not wise to dress entirely in black while attempting to draw attention to yourself in the dark.

Or.

The bus driver was a wanker.

Had to get a taxi and a train home that cost me a small fortune.

Anyway, I see Corbyn is still being a dick. I don't want to give any political advice to anyone, I once worked for the Liberal fucking Democrats for god's sake, well not really worked, more posted leaflets for food. It was always Shepherd's pie made by Sue who was in her 70's and lovely. I would imagine she's dead now, it was a while ago. But still the bitter stench of being betrayed by your own party remains. So I know how it feels. And I don't want anyone else to feel that gut wrenching sick realisation that you've been used and made to look like a liar by people you can't possibly get satisfaction from.

FlyTheNest

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